12.19 Crypto Morning Report:
1. BTC is about to break below 100,000, this time the break will directly cause altcoins to crash, but it was also dragged down by the US stock market;

2. ETH's exchange rate plummeted, its strong surface was directly breached, and market sentiment for ETH has fallen to a yearly low, historical data suggests this could be a turning point;
3. SOL remains the leverage for Bitcoin, but most people don't mind, as the drop in U is similarly disregarded;
4. BNB's overall performance on Binance yesterday was a bit confusing, but the traffic indeed reached its peak, and with USUAL performing well, its drop is among the least in the top 10;
5. The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points, and Powell stated that the Fed is not allowed to hold Bitcoin;

This market is becoming increasingly uninteresting, only a few are rising, and if you dare to buy earnestly, you will find yourself disappointed.

Focus on the Fed's interest rate meeting at 3 a.m.!!
Data market layout method:
1. If the interest rate is raised by 25 basis points, go short directly
2. Keep the interest rate unchanged and go short on highs
3. Cut the interest rate by 25 basis points and go long on lows
4. Cut the interest rate by 50 basis points and go long directly

Blind guess of Binance alpha project at 6pm:
Bnbchain: $AICELL $JOI $BOB
SOL: $Scihub $RIF
Base: $ANZ $Aixbt
Which one is most likely

The following investment experiences often occur in the cryptocurrency circle:
1. Heavy positions but no increase: It feels like the car is too heavy and difficult to take off.
2. Light positions but take off: Because the position is light, it can be held.
3. Heavy positions and take off but not holding: Seeing that it keeps rising, I sell all the way, and after selling, I find that it is still rising, but I can only comfort myself that "selling flies and making money forever".
4. Holding it but not selling it in the end, the result is zero: When it keeps rising, I want to wait a little longer, but it suddenly returns to zero.
5. The most uncomfortable thing is to get off before takeoff: I think it will not rise, so I sell it, and then it takes off.

Late tonight, at 03:00 am on the 19th, the interest rate cut decision will be announced. If there are no accidents, the interest rate is expected to be cut by 25 basis points.
For the monetary policy in January, the possibility of a rate cut is not great at present, but after Trump takes office, some uncertainties may arise, bringing new variables.
After the interest rate cut results are announced, it is recommended that everyone adjust the contract position appropriately, especially considering that after Trump takes office, a real altcoin season may come. Investors holding spot should remain vigilant and not be left behind by market fluctuations.
This may be an opportunity for a hundred times the coin. Seize the opportunity, but also stay calm and stabilize the strategy!

What coins are being hidden in December?

The most popular are: SUI > PNUT > SOL > DOGE > ACT > ONDO > ETH
1. SUI focuses on underlying technology innovation, with enormous future potential as a high-performance public chain.
2. PNUT is the internet celebrity squirrel stirring up the U.S. elections, which will see greater value increase after Trump takes office in January.
3. The price of SOL is still not enough, with most predictions reasonably around 500.
4. DOGE, the favorite of Musk, will be supported by the government efficiency department (also known as: DOGE) in January to boost its price.
5. ETH will definitely see a price increase, definitely, definitely, faith must be in place.
Seemingly foolish and simple direct methods are often the most effective. Learning from wise and experienced people can help avoid blindly exploring and save a lot of costs lost due to trial and error.

Personal summary, regarding the three requirements for entering at the end of a trend:
1. Divergence can serve as an entry environment, but should not be used as an entry condition, otherwise it will leave you questioning life
2. The first or the first five reversal bars show the emergence of (bullish or bearish) sentiment
3. A pullback (five bars emergence as three buys), stabilizing above the 60 moving average, serves as the second buy (sell), this is the more secure entry point
#加密市场盘整

What is the coin selection logic of these top traders? I have summarized and organized it into a mnemonic for everyone to refer to:
1. Check the fundamentals before selecting a coin; a reliable team is safe;
2. Innovative concepts with prospects; practical application is key;
3. Buy sideways and buy dips, avoid buying upwards; sell at the peak of excitement;
4. Continuous small increases are real increases; continuous large increases require exit;
5. A sharp rise should pull back; avoid deep pits and large purchases;
6. A main upward acceleration should see a peak; sell quickly during sharp declines and slowly during gradual increases;
7. A sharp decline with low volume is intimidation; a gradual decline with high volume signals to withdraw quickly;
8. Price breaking the life line; don’t hesitate to make a swing trade;
9. Pay attention to daily and monthly charts; build positions following the main force;
10. No volume during price increases; the main force is luring in buyers, don’t stand guard;
11. An active community with high popularity indicates project development has promise;
12. Continuous code updates; technical iterations have support.

Which coin is expected to increase tenfold by 2025?
BTC
ETH
SUI
SOL
XRP
BGB
LINK
DOGE
？？？

The altcoin market has an important indicator: 'Bitcoin Market Share'
Rising Share: Funds flow into Bitcoin, Bitcoin absorbs liquidity, altcoin bear market
Falling Share: Funds flow out of Bitcoin / Funds flow into altcoins, altcoin bull market
In March 2017, the share dropped from 80% to 30%, triggering an altcoin bull market
In January 2021, the share dropped from 70% to 40%, triggering an altcoin bull market
In December 2024, the current share is 56%, having fallen below the rising channel

1. Overall Market Overview
On December 18, Bitcoin continuously set new highs, while altcoins performed poorly, causing considerable anxiety among altcoin holders.

2. Reasons Altcoins Are Not Rising
Capital Flow: Funds are mainly flowing into Bitcoin, leaving altcoins with scarce liquidity.
Market Risk: With Bitcoin hitting new highs, large investors are afraid that a correction could crash the market, making them hesitant to invest in altcoins.

Profit Taking Adjustments: In the previous round, altcoins doubled, and now they need to adjust for profit-taking and turnover.

3. Timing for Altcoin Increases
In the past, altcoins did not rise when Bitcoin set new highs; they require Bitcoin to experience a high-level correction and consolidate for more than seven days before altcoins may rise. Currently, altcoins have already undergone a correction and turnover for 10 days since December 7, and approximately two more weeks are needed; it is not yet time for an increase.

4. Key Time Points and Impacts
Tomorrow morning at 3 AM, the Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision, and if the rate cut goes smoothly in December and signals a rate cut for next year, Bitcoin prices are expected to stabilize.

5. Advice for Altcoin Holders
Friends holding altcoins still need to be patient and wait for 1 to 2 weeks, as there may be a glimmer of hope for an increase in altcoins.

Trump's victory is a long-term positive for cryptocurrency and a direct boost for the AI sector, riding this wave

ESE's market cap shows a strong trend, breaking through $0.04 and continuing to rise!

Why is there so much optimism for ESE?

1. Breaking through $0.04: As market enthusiasm rises, ESE has already broken through $0.04 and is expected to continue increasing, with a target price of at least $0.10.

2. Strong growth potential: Over the past month, ESE has experienced rapid growth due to the high attention from IDO hunters and the community for launchpads. Everyone is waiting to stake ESE to participate in IDO, which is also a significant reason for the price increase.

3. Market undervaluation: Compared to the ATH of other platforms, ESE's market cap is very low. For instance, DAO MAKER reached $600 million and ChainGPT reached $350 million. ESE still has huge upward potential, if you know what I mean.

4. AI craze: ESE is leveraging the AI agency and AI Meme craze to launch multiple promising AI projects, attracting the attention of many big players.
#市场全线看牛？

1. When trading cryptocurrencies, focus on the strong ones. If you're unsure, look at the 60-day moving average. If it’s above, increase your position or buy; if it’s below, withdraw. This strategy works well in most cases.
2. When you encounter a sudden rise of over 50%, don't rush to chase it, as it can easily cause panic. It's safer to buy at lower levels; the risk is smaller and the potential profits may be even greater.
3. Before a big rise, there are often signs, such as small price fluctuations with a change of 10% to 20%, but the trading volume decreases. At this time, slowly buying in at lower levels can often help you catch the upward trend.
4. When a new market hotspot arises, it will definitely be hot in the first few days. Seize this opportunity and follow the big players, and making money will be easier.
5. When a bear market comes, control your hands and don’t make random moves for at least six months. In a poor market, operate less; knowing when to rest is what makes a master.
6. Every week, take a moment to look back, not to see if you made money, but to check if your strategy is correct. If it’s right, stick to it; if it’s wrong, adjust it. After a few months, your trading method will become stable.

Market Quick Review: BTC
From the current market view, Bitcoin has shown a pullback after reaching the upper channel, currently retreating to the support level around 105,378 on the 4-hour chart.
Although the strong upward momentum has been interrupted, the overall structure has not changed. As long as the support level of 104,900 is maintained, the upcoming trend may still sustain a sideways upward movement.
If buying continues to enter, BTC is expected to further push towards a new high. A pullback to lower levels can still be seen as an opportunity to go long.

This month's 4 major predictions for the counterfeit market:
1. At the beginning of the month, it was predicted that most counterfeits would deviate too far from the 120-day moving average, causing a large divergence in the moving average, resulting in a need to pull back to the 120-day moving average, and soon a market crash would occur!
2. After the crash, I predict a dead cross on the daily chart will trigger a short squeeze rebound, and during the rebound, positions will be reduced! In the last two days, a pullback has occurred again!
3. Fluctuating market in late December
4. Next, we will verify T God's fourth prediction: the more it falls before and after New Year's Day on January 1, 2025, the more it should be bought!

12.18 Crypto Morning Report:
1. BTC continues to reach new highs, hitting 108,000;
2. ETH is waiting for a new high, which is a bit difficult, the exchange rate is fluctuating within a range; Ethereum ETF net inflow of 12,347 ETH;
3. SOL can only say that the funding is really significant, although it has been siphoned off by HyperliquidX, it is still the place with the most hot money;
4. BNB's performance is mediocre, several projects on bnbchain encountered direct liquidation yesterday, which is difficult to understand what they intend to do;
5. If XRP breaks through 3 dollars, a short position of 272.3 million dollars in XRP will face liquidation;

Why do you lose money in a bull market?
First: Ignore risks and bear it tough!
Second: Heavy investment, little fluctuation, instant explosion!
Third: Greed!

The current market trend at the end of the year is much more challenging than the one from last year’s end to the beginning of this year.
At that time, the primary themes were relatively clear.
The first wave was the Bitcoin ecosystem.
Holding onto the leading coin, ordi, was enough; it rose from 2.7 to a peak of 96, a maximum of 36 times.
The second wave saw the focus shift to Bitcoin's second layer.
At that time, there was only one target, ckb, which increased tenfold in just over a month.
The third wave was the meme market, with pepe leading the way, also increasing tenfold in a month.

Summarize two methods for exiting the top:
1. Convert all coins to USDT at a certain top
2. Convert all coins to BTC at an uncertain top