Today, the crypto market is still affected by quite high volatility. Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) remain the main focus of investors, with a steady increase in trading volumes in crypto derivative products such as futures and options. However, there has been a tendency for volume to slow down in recent weeks after the peak of volatility in early Q3 2024. Currently, Bitcoin and Ether contracts continue to dominate trading activity.
In October, the market also experienced positive sentiment due to the US Federal Reserve's interest rate cut and China's looser monetary policy. This has increased investor interest in various assets, including crypto, despite some concerns about inflation and global economic uncertainty.
Overall, despite supportive macroeconomic factors, the crypto market is still very sensitive to further developments in global economic policy and the launch of new products, such as the spot ETF for Ether which triggered increased liquidity in early October.
Based on the technical analysis of the picture and current macro conditions, here are the recommended strategies for BTC/USDT:
1. Entry
Long Entry: If BTC can break and sustain above the MA(200) around $61,792, this could be a confirmation of an upside breakout. You can enter long after the price breaks through this resistance level with sufficient volume.
Short Entry: If BTC fails to break through MA(200) and returns below MA(7) around $60,932, this could be a signal to go short, assuming the price will fall towards the nearest support at $58,900.
The volatility of the crypto market, including Bitcoin (BTC), is indeed greatly influenced by major factors such as large-scale sales by entities such as the US government. Mass sales of BTC by governments can affect prices quite significantly, especially in the short term. When large amounts of BTC are auctioned or sold on the market, supply increases suddenly, which can depress prices, especially if not balanced by adequate demand.
Here are some things to watch out for regarding crypto market volatility:
1. Rapid Price Fluctuations: The crypto market is generally known for its fast and unpredictable price movements. News such as the US government selling large amounts of BTC can trigger panic selling or buying, triggering sudden spikes or drops in prices.
2. Psychological Market Reactions: In addition to the direct impact of BTC sales, investors' psychological reactions to the news can also trigger volatility. News of large sales often creates uncertainty, which causes investors to act quickly to sell or buy, exacerbating volatility.
3. Other Market Forces: While government sales are a big factor, the price of BTC is also influenced by many other factors, including regulation, large institutional adoption, new technologies in the crypto sector, and broader global market movements.
It is important for investors to keep a close eye on the news and consider risk factors in their decision-making. Given the highly volatile nature of the crypto market, strategies such as asset diversification or the use of techniques such as stop-losses may be useful in managing risk.
To predict whether the CPI data will be higher or lower than expected, there are several factors to consider:
1. Energy and Oil Prices: Rising crude oil and gas prices tend to push inflation higher because energy affects many aspects of production costs, from production to transportation. If energy prices have increased in recent months, the CPI may also increase.
2. Federal Reserve Policy: If the Federal Reserve has raised interest rates in an effort to control inflation, the CPI may show signs of declining or stabilizing. However, the effects of these interest rate hikes usually take time to show up in the CPI data.
3. Global Trends and Supply Chains: Improving global supply chain issues can ease price pressures in certain sectors. However, geopolitical uncertainty or natural disasters can cause raw material prices and inflation to rise.
4. Previous Data: If previous CPI releases have shown a gradual decline in inflation, there may be a trend toward stabilizing inflation. However, if inflation remains at high levels, this could be an indication of a higher-than-expected CPI.
Based on current economic trends, including recent increases in energy prices, inflation could be slightly higher or in line with expectations, but it will depend on how these factors interact in the report.
In general, markets are more focused on long-term trends, so a reading that is only slightly higher or lower is unlikely to cause a major move unless it is very surprising.
Based on the BTC/USDT chart, here is the technical analysis and position suggestions:
1. Market Conditions
Current Price: BTC price is at $60,950, indicating a 1.56% decline in the last 24 hours.
Moving Averages (MA) Indicator:
The price is below several important MAs such as MA(7), MA(25), and MA(50), indicating a bearish trend.
MA(200) around $62,366 indicates strong resistance above the current price.
Volume: Trading volume in the last 24 hours is quite high, indicating significant selling pressure.
MACD: The MACD histogram shows strong bearish momentum with MACD at -89.9, indicating heavy selling pressure. The DIF and DEA lines are also in the negative zone, reinforcing the bearish trend.
Support and Resistance:
The lowest support is at $60,800 (24-hour low).
Significant resistance is around $62,182 and $62,366 (represented by MA200).
2. Entry Recommendation for Short/Sell
Entry: Entry for short/sell position can be done if price manages to break support at $60,800, which is a key level. Wait for confirmation of a breakout below this level.
Stop-Loss: Place a stop loss above the nearest resistance, which is around $61,500 – $61,600 to protect against potential price reversals.
Take Profit: Take profit target can be placed around $59,500 to $59,000, considering this is a psychological level and has the potential to be the next support if selling pressure continues.
3. Market Sentiment and News
The current short to medium term trend is bearish based on moving averages and MACD indicator.
Keep an eye on major Bitcoin news such as regulatory decisions or institutional adoption that can sharply affect price volatility.
Technically, the market is showing quite strong selling pressure, so it is safer to take a short position at this time.
Technical analysis and recommendations for Eth positions:
1. Market Conditions
Current Price: ETH is at $2,416.89 with a decline of around 0.86%.
Moving Averages (MA) Indicator:
The price is below MA(7), MA(25), and MA(50), indicating a short-term bearish trend.
MA(200) is around $2,427, indicating a strong resistance level around the area.
Volume: Trading volume in 24 hours is quite high, indicating significant activity in the market.
MACD: The MACD histogram still shows bearish momentum, although not too strong, but the dif line (-4.24) indicates a continuing downtrend.
2. Entry Recommendations for Short/Sell
Entry: A short entry can be considered if the price breaks below $2,407 (the lowest support in 24 hours).
Stop-Loss: Place a stop loss above the MA(200) around $2,430 to protect against potential unexpected upside.
Take Profit: Take profit targets can be placed around $2,300 to $2,299, given that there is significant support in the area.
3. Market Sentiment and News
Overall, the chart shows a bearish sentiment. There are no significant breakouts that indicate a trend reversal at this time.
Be sure to pay attention to fundamental news or events related to Ethereum, as these can significantly affect price volatility.
Thus, a sell/short position is more advisable for now, but stay alert for potential trend changes, especially if there is any major news in the crypto market or related to Ethereum.
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