The impact of the US election on the market outlook. Although China Merchants Bank has not analyzed digital currencies, we can still get a glimpse of some information.

I recently read an article that said not to pursue whole numbers. I intentionally did not choose to place an order at 2350, but I didn't expect that placing it at 2380 would still result in a transaction with a difference of 0.63... In the future, I will add another dollar.

There are big things happening during the National Day holiday. Don't ignore the most important data.

If the unemployment rate rises, the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates again is very high. The price of currency, stock price and gold price will rise again.

If the unemployment rate remains the same or slightly decreases, then for the market, it will wait for the September interest rate hike policy to be digested.

If the unemployment rate drops significantly, then the direction of US policy will be questioned. After all, the Fed's internal opinions on this interest rate cut are not completely consistent. This is whether the currency price can break through the biggest ❓

First of all, let me draw a conclusion: before the election, no data from the United States will determine the start of the Fed's interest rate cut.

The Fed's rate hike and rate cut rhythm can be viewed from two dimensions:

1. The purpose of the rate hike is to harvest the world, so the start of the rate cut must be a certain country or region. Now it seems that every country lacks liquidity and the economy is also resisting, but no one has exploded.

Therefore, if the milestone of the rate hike has not been reached, let alone the start of the rate cut.

2. The US debt problem is indeed difficult, but don't forget that the United States is a country where elections are supreme. This round of interest rate hikes was manipulated after the Biden administration came to power. What are the results of the interest rate hike for the Democratic Party?

Therefore, under the premise that Harris has not confirmed his succession, the Democratic Party will not take the initiative to cut interest rates before the interest rate hike policy has not harvested the world. Even if the Republican Wall Street gives a very bad economic data, it will not cut.

Suggestion: Don't stare at the results of the Fed's rate cut. The recent data releases are smokescreens that can cause market fluctuations, but they must not cause the United States to cut interest rates.

$BTC $ETH $BNB

#学习记录 I want to ask my friends in the square a question

How should we view Binance's fear, greed and long-short ratio?

Why is the fear close to 50% today, but the long ratio is so large? $BTC $ETH $BNB

$ETH $BTC After two observations, I will verify my thoughts with the financial data today.

Indeed, both Bitcoin and Bitcoin have certain gold properties.

The unemployment rate data at 20:30 was released, and the straight line with ETH is a good proof of the result.

$ETH $BTC [Notes and reflections] Sure enough, for novices, they still have to keep paying tuition fees and learn to explore the factors that affect the market.

After looking around the square, I felt that there was no self-consistent explanation for the decline. But someone mentioned the unemployment rate data in the United States, so I went to check Tonghuashun.

At 22:00, the US inflation data released was higher than expected. It means that US inflation has not been effectively suppressed, and the expectation of interest rate hikes still exists. However, the expectation of interest rate cuts in the near future has declined.

At more than 0 o'clock, Powell added fuel to the fire and talked about the expectation of interest rate hikes.

It just fits the time when the decline started and the time point of the end bottoming out. The time point matches. It is initially determined that the expectation of interest rate hikes is linked to the cause of the decline.

However, the expectation of interest rate hikes did not cause much waves in the US dollar gold market.

There was not much waves in the US dollar/yen exchange rate market. After the data was released, the market's self-protection sentiment was only corrected.

[Conclusion] Although from the daily K of several months, it is a trend of narrowing decline. However, there is no obvious fluctuation in the two major markets. The fluctuation and decline in the cryptocurrency market is a blind guess that it is the result of amplified panic sentiment. I am currently bullish and adding positions. I hope it is not self-consolation.