佩佩不是peipei

Tonight's CPI
Previous value 3.8, expected 4.2
Inflation isn't likely to be low
The chance of rate cuts is slim
Yesterday, the Fed's reverse repo means they'll have to continue tapering
Liquidity is still being tightened
Currently, Bitcoin is below 58000
Not much needs to be liquidated
If it dips below 60000 in the short term
It might find support around 58000

The market has at least temporarily hit a bottom, so whether we continue to slide or experience a bounce back largely depends on tonight's CPI.

Given that the market has already priced in rate hikes and risk aversion, if the CPI data is less than or equal to expectations, we could see a bounce as market sentiment shifts from rate hikes back to rate cuts.

On the flip side, if CPI data comes in higher than expected, the downward trend will likely strengthen, and the next chance to find a bottom will be after the 6.17 FOMC meeting.

Key observations at 20:30:

Core monthly rate ≤ 0.2%, with year-end rate hike probability at 70% dropping to 45-50%, signaling a strong bounce.

Core monthly rate at 0.3% (there's a rounding issue here, depending on whether the raw data is high or low), rate hike probability at 70% dropping to 60%, suggesting a weak bounce or correction.

Core monthly rate at 0.4%, with October rate hike probability at 70% rising to 85%, indicating continued declines.

Core monthly rate ≥ 0.5%, with July rate hike probability increasing, leading to market panic and a crash.

Overall, the probability of a rebound is around 60-65%.

With the recent regulatory wave in the US and Hong Kong stocks, the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission's announcement has officially landed. Considering the requirements from various brokers and banks during this period:

1. For new accounts opened offline, you need to sign a declaration that funds do not come from the mainland.
2. Brokers and investment apps cannot connect directly to the mainland.
3. Most account openings now require going through offline procedures in Hong Kong.

Today's Big News
The Fed is dropping inflation data tomorrow morning at 8:30!

Here's the script:

Below 3.5% → The market will take off directly

3.5%–3.6% → Just chill, no movement

Above 3.6% → Crash, no negotiations
My call:
This isn't a 'maybe volatility', the market is already on the grill.

If the data slightly exceeds expectations, those positions propped up by rate cut hopes will explode in an instant. Conversely, if the data is below expectations, the shorts will also get wrecked.

Don't oversleep tomorrow morning. No matter which side you're on, keep your eyes peeled.

For those heavily leveraged, you should be figuring out your game plan tonight.

Hackers are speeding up the liquidation in the crypto space,

which will ultimately accelerate the arrival of altcoin season,

only when liquidity is concentrated can we see the wealth effect,

and the low barrier to entry is the core pain point in the crypto world right now.

A classic case of national-level Bitcoin liquidation,

Bulgaria sold off 213,500 BTC back in 2017.

At today's prices, they could wipe out their entire national debt.

Got it.

In the past, everyone was wondering, with the World Cup only a little over a month away, when exactly should we start front-running?

Now it's clear:

1. After the event wraps up, expect a major buyback, with bullish sentiment on the horizon.

2. The big news is, the World Cup isn't just about the World Cup; there will be spin-off tokens for other hot events, continuing to pump the main token tied to the World Cup!

As long as the devs keep the project running and play fair, the World Cup's momentum will keep rolling!

Do you guys get it now?

The market is still way too bullish. There are only 3 days left until Elon Musk's SpaceX IPO, and its new share offering has already been oversubscribed by more than 2x.

This means that although SpaceX is raising just $75 billion, the market's subscription interest has reached $150 billion.

With less than 2 days remaining until the offering closes.

Studying at a university in the US, then graduating to join SpaceX, and becoming a billionaire within a few years. Huang Zheng achieved financial freedom right after joining GOOGLE when it was just a few hundred people.

The most amazing story is that of the Chinese girl who joined Scale AI; she amassed billions in her twenties—even when she wasn't working at the company anymore…

The environment can really change your life. Being born in some tough places, even having enough to eat can be a challenge.

Here comes another Super Mario-level crash!

The Humanity Protocol got hit by hackers, losing over $31 million, and the attackers are dumping H for ETH, causing $H to plummet 90%.

If you've interacted with this protocol, make sure to quickly revoke your authorizations and move your funds.

Hope you guys are still in the game!

With a floating loss of $1.22 billion compounded by hefty interest pressure, Saylor's "never sell coins" strategy is facing a severe test. The current strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) holds about 843,706 BTC, with a total cost basis of around $63.867 billion. At the current Bitcoin price, the floating loss has exceeded $1.22 billion. Meanwhile, the company is grappling with about $1.7 billion in debt and obligations such as preferred stock dividends, with just STRC preferred shares requiring ongoing high dividend payments.

Recently, the company made its first small-scale sale of 32 BTC (around $2.5 million) to cover preferred stock dividends. This breaks Saylor's longstanding "never sell coins" promise and raises market concerns about cash flow sustainability. Institutions like Grayscale have warned that if Bitcoin doesn't rebound significantly, the ongoing dividend pressure may force the company to further liquidate unless alleviated through equity financing or a rise in Bitcoin prices.

With extreme overselling meeting macro headwinds, Bitcoin's daily RSI has dropped to 15.5, marking the lowest level since the pandemic crash in March 2020, entering the "historically extreme oversold" zone. Historically, similar extreme readings have led to strong rebounds: in 2020, after the RSI hit bottom, BTC rebounded about 50% in an environment of significant Fed rate cuts and unlimited QE; in February 2026, after the RSI fell to around 15.86, it also rebounded nearly 30%.

However, this time the macro backdrop is completely different: in May, the U.S. non-farm payrolls added 172,000 jobs, far exceeding the expected 85,000, with the unemployment rate steady at 4.3% and wage growth still resilient. The probability of the Fed maintaining rates in June is as high as 98%, while the market expectation for a 25 basis point rate hike by the end of the year has risen to over 40%.

2020 was characterized by "rate cuts + liquidity" in a major easing cycle, while 2026 presents an environment of "strong employment + rate hike risks". The reliability of extreme oversold technical signals is facing strong challenges from macro factors. Analysts believe that if the support level around $70,650 holds in the short term, a technical rebound may occur, but the difficulty of bouncing back to $70,000 has significantly increased.

Ethereum has broken below the 9-year 'golden triangle'

Looking like: Not great.

But history:

Last time it broke → The 2020 COVID crash
ETH went from $100 → $4,800 (30x)
Same triangle. Same breakdown.

My take:

'Breaking down' doesn’t always mean the end.
It could also be the last ticket to get in.

The 'breakdown' in 2020 was the biggest buy opportunity in Ethereum's history.

What about this time?

The Iran-Israel situation is heating up again, and market risk aversion is back in full swing.

The most watched event over the weekend was undoubtedly the escalation of conflict between Iran and Israel.

According to public reports, Iran launched missiles at northern Israel on the night of June 7, marking the first direct military confrontation since the ceasefire in April. Israel then retaliated, quickly escalating tensions in the Middle East, and market concerns about the conflict widening have noticeably increased.

From a market perspective, funds have started to vote with their feet.

In the past 24 hours, international oil prices have surged, with Brent crude briefly breaking the $96 mark, a single-day increase of over 3%. Market worries about transportation risks in the Strait of Hormuz and the stability of Middle Eastern oil supplies have made the energy sector the go-to choice for risk-averse funds.

On the other hand, risk assets are showing clear signs of pressure. Bitcoin, which had been adjusting due to ETF outflows and rising interest rate expectations, is once again affected by geopolitical risks, leading to a further decline in market risk appetite. Recently, BTC has dropped to levels not seen in a year and a half, with funds shifting towards cash, gold, and energy assets.

For the crypto market, what needs the most attention right now is not short-term price fluctuations, but whether the Iran-Israel conflict will continue to escalate. If the situation worsens and oil prices push towards $100 or even higher, then global inflation expectations may rise again, impacting the Fed's rate-cutting pace, which is not good news for risk assets, including US stocks and the crypto market.

This week, the core variable for the market is very clear:

It's not AI, not ETFs, and not the altcoin hot spots.

It's whether the Middle East situation will evolve from a localized conflict into a broader geopolitical risk event.

In the coming days, the correlation of oil prices, gold, and Bitcoin may become the most important indicator for gauging global market risk sentiment.

Short siren at the current price. Expect it to drop below 0.7 within a week.

A 50% drop, let's keep an eye on it,

With 1000u, using 10x leverage, if I lose 1000u, I'm out. If I make 5000u, I'm also out.

gogogo/

The biggest cognitive trap in Musk's vision for interstellar colonization isn't the tech challenge, but rather the Earth-centric mindset.

Humanity isn't just looking for a "second Earth"; we're figuring out how to become a "civilization that doesn't rely on Earth conditions."

The ultimate significance of Mars colonization isn't just transforming the red desert into a blue home, but rather evolving humanity into a species that can thrive in diverse environments. Whether it's physiological adaptation in 38% gravity, or the precisely controlled artificial ecosystems of space cities, or even transcending the original template of "carbon-based, planet-dependent life."

Every challenge to the notion of "it must be this way" is a jailbreak of cognition. When we stop judging the universe based on our Earthly experiences, we truly begin to understand: adaptation isn't about returning to the comfort zone, but expanding the very definition of survival.

You need to fall in love with something to keep your trading game strong.

Similarly, you need some fresh knowledge to nourish your investment logic.

If a market hasn't given you any new insights for a while, it might be time to switch up your trading direction.

In areas you don't fully grasp, the barren land is just waiting for you to break ground.

Crypto market just took a nosedive, vaporizing trillions in half an hour!

US semiconductor stocks are taking a hit, with NVDA dropping nearly 5%, MU crashing 7%, and AVGO plummeting 14% the other day and still on the floor today. Silver is down 9% and gold took a dive.

Brothers, I can finally breathe a sigh of relief now.

The NASDAQ skyrocketed 8.4% in the past month, with leverage and positions pushed to the max; not dropping would be truly scary! This wave has thoroughly shaken out profit takers and eliminated weak hands, allowing for a longer journey ahead.

On the surface, it’s all about the Middle East tensions and rising inflation expectations, with the market betting on the Fed hiking rates in the second half of the year. But the AI fundamentals haven’t changed at all—NVIDIA's orders are booked through 2027, and Micron's contract prices are still climbing. What’s dropping is just the sentiment and leverage, not the demand.

Right now, I've got just one thought: hang in there!

Survive until the next breakout, and you’ll have won.

As for trading strategies… we’ll discuss that next, for now, let’s watch the show.

The crypto landscape has flipped, Ethereum is no longer the runner-up; from now on, USDT takes the spot of the number two crypto. Ethereum has dropped to number three, so let’s just call Vitalik the new number three.

Don't be scared! No fear! Get ready to stack your DCA for the next 4 months. As long as we see some bearish candles on the monthly chart in the upcoming 3-4 months, it’s time to dollar-cost average. It's the darkness before dawn! Trust my technical analysis.

After the non-farm payroll data dropped, the market evaporated $2.5 trillion, wiping out the entire crypto market cap.

Are there any pros left today who aren't in the red?