调皮的小六
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调皮的小六
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Based on the current data and technical indicators, here is the analysis and recommendations for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) future market trends: Analysis from deepseek
1. Technical Analysis
1. Trend Assessment
Short-term bullish signal: The current price (105,020.45 USDT) is significantly higher than EMA(14) (102,655.66) and EMA(28) (101,029.79), with moving averages displaying a bullish arrangement, indicating a strong short-term trend.
- **Key Resistance Levels**: The upper resistance is located in the range of 109,588.00–110,604.57 USDT. A breakthrough may open up further upside potential.
- **Support Levels**: Short-term support is at 101,400.01 USDT (24h lowest price). If this level is breached, be cautious of potential pullback risks.
2. **Trading Volume and Momentum**
- 24-hour trading volume is 25,614.76 BTC, with a transaction amount of 26,542 USDT, indicating high market activity. However, it is necessary to observe whether the increase in volume accompanies rising prices; otherwise, it may signal a depletion of momentum.
3. **Volatility Characteristics**
- The price fluctuation within 24 hours is approximately 4.1% (101,400.01→105,595.81), indicating that market sentiment is sensitive and caution should be exercised against extreme volatility risks.
2. Key Operational Strategies
1. Short-term (1-7 days)
- Breakthrough Strategy: If the price stabilizes above 105,595.81 (24h high) and breaks through 110,604 USDT with increased volume, one can consider taking a light position in the direction of the trend, aiming for the target range of 112,000–115,000.
Pullback Opportunity: If the price retraces to EMA(14) (102,655 USDT) or the 101,400 support level without breaking, it can be seen as an opportunity to accumulate at lower prices.
2. Risk Control
Stop-loss Setting: For long positions, it is recommended to set a stop-loss below 100,000 USDT, and for short positions (if counter-trend), a stricter stop-loss is required.
- **Leverage Management**: Avoid high leverage in highly volatile markets; it is recommended to keep leverage ≤ 5x.
5. Summary and Recommendations
- **Market Forecast**: Short-term bias is bullish, but attention should be paid to the breakthrough situation at the 110,000 USDT resistance level; if there is resistance and a pullback occurs, it may enter a range of 102,000–108,000 USDT for consolidation.
- **Investor Action Guide**:
- **Conservative**: Hold cash, wait for the trend to clarify, and avoid frequent trading.
- **Aggressive**: Participate in breakout trades with light positions, strictly enforce stop-losses, and take profits in a timely manner.
- **Long-term Allocation**: Gradually invest if a pullback occurs in the 95,000–100,000 USDT range.
**Note**: The cryptocurrency market is highly uncertain, and the above analysis should be adjusted dynamically in conjunction with real-time data. Do not follow blindly.
1. Technical Analysis
1. Trend Assessment
Short-term bullish signal: The current price (105,020.45 USDT) is significantly higher than EMA(14) (102,655.66) and EMA(28) (101,029.79), with moving averages displaying a bullish arrangement, indicating a strong short-term trend.
- **Key Resistance Levels**: The upper resistance is located in the range of 109,588.00–110,604.57 USDT. A breakthrough may open up further upside potential.
- **Support Levels**: Short-term support is at 101,400.01 USDT (24h lowest price). If this level is breached, be cautious of potential pullback risks.
2. **Trading Volume and Momentum**
- 24-hour trading volume is 25,614.76 BTC, with a transaction amount of 26,542 USDT, indicating high market activity. However, it is necessary to observe whether the increase in volume accompanies rising prices; otherwise, it may signal a depletion of momentum.
3. **Volatility Characteristics**
- The price fluctuation within 24 hours is approximately 4.1% (101,400.01→105,595.81), indicating that market sentiment is sensitive and caution should be exercised against extreme volatility risks.
2. Key Operational Strategies
1. Short-term (1-7 days)
- Breakthrough Strategy: If the price stabilizes above 105,595.81 (24h high) and breaks through 110,604 USDT with increased volume, one can consider taking a light position in the direction of the trend, aiming for the target range of 112,000–115,000.
Pullback Opportunity: If the price retraces to EMA(14) (102,655 USDT) or the 101,400 support level without breaking, it can be seen as an opportunity to accumulate at lower prices.
2. Risk Control
Stop-loss Setting: For long positions, it is recommended to set a stop-loss below 100,000 USDT, and for short positions (if counter-trend), a stricter stop-loss is required.
- **Leverage Management**: Avoid high leverage in highly volatile markets; it is recommended to keep leverage ≤ 5x.
5. Summary and Recommendations
- **Market Forecast**: Short-term bias is bullish, but attention should be paid to the breakthrough situation at the 110,000 USDT resistance level; if there is resistance and a pullback occurs, it may enter a range of 102,000–108,000 USDT for consolidation.
- **Investor Action Guide**:
- **Conservative**: Hold cash, wait for the trend to clarify, and avoid frequent trading.
- **Aggressive**: Participate in breakout trades with light positions, strictly enforce stop-losses, and take profits in a timely manner.
- **Long-term Allocation**: Gradually invest if a pullback occurs in the 95,000–100,000 USDT range.
**Note**: The cryptocurrency market is highly uncertain, and the above analysis should be adjusted dynamically in conjunction with real-time data. Do not follow blindly.
Answer from deepseek:
As an experienced trader, I will analyze the current BTC market from multiple angles:
1. **Current Price and Trend**: According to the information in the screenshot, the current price of BTC/USDT is 102,660.84 USDT, which has increased by 0.17% in the last 24 hours. This indicates that market sentiment is relatively stable in the short term, with small price fluctuations.
2. **Technical Indicators**:
- **EMA (Exponential Moving Average)**: The 14-day EMA is 102,148.86, and the 28-day EMA is 100,660.23. The current price is above these two EMA values, suggesting that the market trend may still be bullish in the short term.
- **Trading Volume**: The 24-hour trading volume is 17,137.45 BTC, with a trading amount of 1.748 billion USDT. The large trading volume indicates that the market is quite active and liquidity is sufficient.
3. **Support and Resistance Levels**:
- **Support Levels**: Based on the price fluctuation range, 90,483.53 USDT and 88,722.00 USDT may be strong support levels.
- **Resistance Levels**: 110,631.30 USDT and 109,588.00 USDT may be potential resistance levels.
4. **Market Sentiment**: The current price is close to the 24-hour high of 103,108.00 USDT, indicating a relatively positive market sentiment. However, the small increase may suggest that the market is waiting for more catalysts or news to drive movement.
5. **Risk Management**: Although the current trend leans towards bullish, the market is quite volatile. It is advisable to set stop-loss levels to manage potential risks. Additionally, closely monitor market news and macroeconomic factors, as these could significantly impact BTC prices.
6. **Long-term Outlook**: As a long-term asset, BTC's price is influenced by various factors, including technological developments, regulatory policies, and market acceptance. Long-term investors should focus on these fundamental factors rather than just short-term price fluctuations.
In summary, the current BTC market shows a certain bullish trend, but traders should remain cautious, manage risks appropriately, and adjust strategies in a timely manner based on market changes.
As an experienced trader, I will analyze the current BTC market from multiple angles:
1. **Current Price and Trend**: According to the information in the screenshot, the current price of BTC/USDT is 102,660.84 USDT, which has increased by 0.17% in the last 24 hours. This indicates that market sentiment is relatively stable in the short term, with small price fluctuations.
2. **Technical Indicators**:
- **EMA (Exponential Moving Average)**: The 14-day EMA is 102,148.86, and the 28-day EMA is 100,660.23. The current price is above these two EMA values, suggesting that the market trend may still be bullish in the short term.
- **Trading Volume**: The 24-hour trading volume is 17,137.45 BTC, with a trading amount of 1.748 billion USDT. The large trading volume indicates that the market is quite active and liquidity is sufficient.
3. **Support and Resistance Levels**:
- **Support Levels**: Based on the price fluctuation range, 90,483.53 USDT and 88,722.00 USDT may be strong support levels.
- **Resistance Levels**: 110,631.30 USDT and 109,588.00 USDT may be potential resistance levels.
4. **Market Sentiment**: The current price is close to the 24-hour high of 103,108.00 USDT, indicating a relatively positive market sentiment. However, the small increase may suggest that the market is waiting for more catalysts or news to drive movement.
5. **Risk Management**: Although the current trend leans towards bullish, the market is quite volatile. It is advisable to set stop-loss levels to manage potential risks. Additionally, closely monitor market news and macroeconomic factors, as these could significantly impact BTC prices.
6. **Long-term Outlook**: As a long-term asset, BTC's price is influenced by various factors, including technological developments, regulatory policies, and market acceptance. Long-term investors should focus on these fundamental factors rather than just short-term price fluctuations.
In summary, the current BTC market shows a certain bullish trend, but traders should remain cautious, manage risks appropriately, and adjust strategies in a timely manner based on market changes.
Top Cognition
看不懂的sol
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Understanding the Top Cognitive Insights in the Crypto Industry (Recommended for Collection)
Understanding the cryptocurrency industry extends far beyond technical analysis and fundamental data, reaching the deep logic of industry operation. They deeply understand the uniqueness of the crypto world and use it as an important basis for decision-making.
🟨 Cyclical awareness: Aligning with the tides of the crypto market.
The cryptocurrency market is not a linear growth trajectory but exhibits distinct cyclical fluctuations. Understanding this tidal pattern is fundamental for top traders to formulate long-term strategies. They understand that following the trend rather than swimming against the current maximizes returns in this highly volatile market and helps avoid unnecessary risks.
🟨 Cyclical awareness: Aligning with the tides of the crypto market.
The cryptocurrency market is not a linear growth trajectory but exhibits distinct cyclical fluctuations. Understanding this tidal pattern is fundamental for top traders to formulate long-term strategies. They understand that following the trend rather than swimming against the current maximizes returns in this highly volatile market and helps avoid unnecessary risks.
meme
看不懂的sol
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A Guide to Discovering 100x Opportunities in MEME Using Tools
Recently made a small profit of over 100,000 USDT on-chain, don't be envious brothers. Today I’ve compiled some commonly used MEME tools to help everyone get started quickly. As the saying goes, 'To do a good job, one must first sharpen their tools.'
1️⃣ Trading Tools:
1. Wallets:
l Phantom: One of the commonly used wallets.
l OKX, Backpack, Trust Wallet, TP: Wallets that support the Sol chain.
2. Meme Launch Platforms
l Pump.fun (@pumpdotfun): The largest launch platform, which has seen many hundred- to thousand-fold projects emerge since last year.
l Moonshot (@moonshotdotcc): A feature launched by DEX Screener, allowing users to issue tokens themselves.
1️⃣ Trading Tools:
1. Wallets:
l Phantom: One of the commonly used wallets.
l OKX, Backpack, Trust Wallet, TP: Wallets that support the Sol chain.
2. Meme Launch Platforms
l Pump.fun (@pumpdotfun): The largest launch platform, which has seen many hundred- to thousand-fold projects emerge since last year.
l Moonshot (@moonshotdotcc): A feature launched by DEX Screener, allowing users to issue tokens themselves.
$BTC
南帝一灯大师
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Brothers and sisters; I’ve made a lot of money, I’ve made a lot of money, I’ve summarized the past two days, and one post every day has been reminding me all the time. If you are an old fan who follows me, as long as you believe in it a little, you can keep up with this wave. On the 13th, I shouted that everyone can buy the bottom and all the bullets have been put in. It’s time to buy the bottom. The usual sayings of others fearing, I am greedy, small declines and small buys, and sudden declines and explosive buys, can’t just be a catchphrase. The early trading on the 14th recovered above 94,000 and clearly pointed out that it was a V-turn, V-turn, V-turn, not a rebound. If you were pregnant and didn’t dare to enter the market on the first day, then you should have bought some to enter the market more or less on the second day. Unfortunately, there are still people who do the reverse operation to go short, and even go short from 9.3-9.4-9.5. What a pity, what a pity, especially the live broadcast on the evening of the 14th, if you have followed it, I believe you can avoid the pursuit of shorts, turn the gun head and get on the bus, especially after reading the review summary, you can keep up and make money. I don't know whether you have bought it or not, but I have already led my brothers and sisters who have added Q to invest all their money, and even the currency-based contracts and pledge operations have all entered the market. Now I have made a lot of money, ha, ha, ha, ha, happy.
Having said so much nonsense, let me say something positive. It's okay if you didn't get on the bus in the first stage of bottom-fishing. In the second stage of the change, you dare not enter the market without determining the direction. The third stage is now. At this moment, there are still many coins hovering in the bottom range. You must get on the bus, especially those weekly MACDs that break through the zero axis. Just buy them directly. Don't care about the rebound of a few points or even 10 points now. The more you dare not buy now, the harder it will pull.
The key is to choose 3 major series;
One Trump sector, two Defi sectors, and three leading coin sectors
Many coins overlap multiple sectors, which is the first choice. These coins have certain financial attributes. Don't look at how much they have rebounded at this moment. Compared with the prices at the beginning of January, they are all at the bottom, and compared with the prices in the middle of last month, they are even at the floor position. Just enter the market directly. Next, you have a good layout and give it time.
Having said so much nonsense, let me say something positive. It's okay if you didn't get on the bus in the first stage of bottom-fishing. In the second stage of the change, you dare not enter the market without determining the direction. The third stage is now. At this moment, there are still many coins hovering in the bottom range. You must get on the bus, especially those weekly MACDs that break through the zero axis. Just buy them directly. Don't care about the rebound of a few points or even 10 points now. The more you dare not buy now, the harder it will pull.
The key is to choose 3 major series;
One Trump sector, two Defi sectors, and three leading coin sectors
Many coins overlap multiple sectors, which is the first choice. These coins have certain financial attributes. Don't look at how much they have rebounded at this moment. Compared with the prices at the beginning of January, they are all at the bottom, and compared with the prices in the middle of last month, they are even at the floor position. Just enter the market directly. Next, you have a good layout and give it time.
$BTC
南帝一灯大师
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BullishBrothers and sisters, how strong is the 90500-91500 range of Bitcoin? This position is the position where institutions increased their holdings in November. BlackRock's ETF fund was only 43 US dollars in November. With the good news of Trump's victory, it rose to 61 US dollars, an increase of 40%. It also increased its holdings to buy Bitcoin all the way, including MicroStrategy. MicroStrategy also bought Bitcoin all the way in October, thereby pushing its company's stock price from 130 US dollars to 553 US dollars, almost 3 times. Fidelity was also only 67 US dollars in November, and it rose to 94 US dollars, also an increase of 40%. So this position is difficult to fall below, and don't panic. Even if you want it to fall below, institutions are unwilling to do so. Don't look at some posts in the square saying that it will go to 70,000. That's nonsense. So brothers, you have to believe that in this round of Bitcoin bull market, the goals of institutions are not what we retail investors can imagine. What they want is It is not the profit from the increase of Bitcoin from 90,000 to 100,000. What they want is to use Bitcoin as an anchor asset to derive more financial products. If the price of Bitcoin falls back below 90,000 or even below 80,000, do you think it is our retail investors who will lose more or the institutions who will lose more? Now Bitcoin accounts for 56% of the market, Ethereum 12%, stablecoins 4%, and other currencies 27%. 99% of retail investors hold other currencies, so retail investors only care about the price of Bitcoin and will not buy Bitcoin. However, institutions will not only care about the price of Bitcoin, but also stabilize Bitcoin. Now the market value of the entire Bitcoin ETF has reached 110 billion, which is not the peak. In the future, it can reach 200 billion or even 300 billion. More institutions will apply for Bitcoin ETF, so that a larger financial market anchored by Bitcoin can be born. This is the result that Trump and even institutions want when he comes to power.
Hong Kong Alipay Withdrawal
减免联盟队长-宁采臣
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⚠️If you have plans to go to Hong Kong to apply for a card in the near future, remember to open Ant Virtual Bank after you arrive in Hong Kong, which can help us return Hong Kong dollars to China at a low loss in seconds!
Ant Bank is a bank under Ant Group, and Alipay is also a product of Ant Group.
At present, Hong Kong Alipay has been fully connected with Ant Bank, and Hong Kong Alipay also supports online activation of mainland mobile phone numbers. More specifically, even if you are not in Hong Kong and do not have a Hong Kong mobile phone number, you can open Hong Kong Alipay.
And Hong Kong Alipay supports scanning the payment QR code of mainland Alipay.
What does this mean?
When our Ant Bank is linked to the Hong Kong Alipay account, the money in the Ant Bank account can be directly used for Hong Kong Alipay scan code payment, and Hong Kong Alipay can scan the payment QR code of mainland Alipay.
In addition, the exchange rate of Hong Kong dollars to RMB in Hong Kong Alipay is actually not bad. Compared with the exchange rate of Wise or Universal Life Debit Card, the exchange rate of Hong Kong Alipay is less than 0.5% more expensive.
I think this exchange rate difference is absolutely acceptable. After all, when you scan the QR code of Hong Kong Alipay to mainland Alipay, the money will be credited in seconds, while traditional cross-border remittances will take at least 1 working day.
Through Ant Bank and Hong Kong Alipay, we can return Hong Kong dollars with low losses.
The current daily limit is 3k Hong Kong dollars, which I think should be enough to meet everyone's needs for small withdrawals.
Provide two ideas that have been proven feasible in practice:
1️⃣ How to withdraw small money earned from the stock market?
ChangBridge/Interactive Brokers ➡️ Ant Bank ➡️ Hong Kong Alipay ➡️ Mainland Alipay
2️⃣ How to withdraw USDT?
Exchange ➡️ PokePay ➡️ Hong Kong Alipay ➡️ Mainland Alipay
If you are worried about risk control, you can also use Hong Kong Alipay to consume in the mainland, such as scanning the QR code to pay in supermarkets and shopping malls.
You may also have questions: Why must Hong Kong Alipay be paired with Ant Bank or PokePay virtual cards?
Because many functions of Hong Kong Alipay are not available to mainland users, they can only use a limited number of methods.
Ant Bank is a bank under Ant Group, and Alipay is also a product of Ant Group.
At present, Hong Kong Alipay has been fully connected with Ant Bank, and Hong Kong Alipay also supports online activation of mainland mobile phone numbers. More specifically, even if you are not in Hong Kong and do not have a Hong Kong mobile phone number, you can open Hong Kong Alipay.
And Hong Kong Alipay supports scanning the payment QR code of mainland Alipay.
What does this mean?
When our Ant Bank is linked to the Hong Kong Alipay account, the money in the Ant Bank account can be directly used for Hong Kong Alipay scan code payment, and Hong Kong Alipay can scan the payment QR code of mainland Alipay.
In addition, the exchange rate of Hong Kong dollars to RMB in Hong Kong Alipay is actually not bad. Compared with the exchange rate of Wise or Universal Life Debit Card, the exchange rate of Hong Kong Alipay is less than 0.5% more expensive.
I think this exchange rate difference is absolutely acceptable. After all, when you scan the QR code of Hong Kong Alipay to mainland Alipay, the money will be credited in seconds, while traditional cross-border remittances will take at least 1 working day.
Through Ant Bank and Hong Kong Alipay, we can return Hong Kong dollars with low losses.
The current daily limit is 3k Hong Kong dollars, which I think should be enough to meet everyone's needs for small withdrawals.
Provide two ideas that have been proven feasible in practice:
1️⃣ How to withdraw small money earned from the stock market?
ChangBridge/Interactive Brokers ➡️ Ant Bank ➡️ Hong Kong Alipay ➡️ Mainland Alipay
2️⃣ How to withdraw USDT?
Exchange ➡️ PokePay ➡️ Hong Kong Alipay ➡️ Mainland Alipay
If you are worried about risk control, you can also use Hong Kong Alipay to consume in the mainland, such as scanning the QR code to pay in supermarkets and shopping malls.
You may also have questions: Why must Hong Kong Alipay be paired with Ant Bank or PokePay virtual cards?
Because many functions of Hong Kong Alipay are not available to mainland users, they can only use a limited number of methods.
$BTC
南帝一灯大师
·
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Brothers, let's summarize;
Whether it's just before Trump's inauguration or right before our Spring Festival,
this round of manipulation is aimed at cleaning up the contract market. Currently, Bitcoin cannot fall below 96,500; if it does, the cleansing will go deeper. Looking back at past time nodes and patterns of manipulation, the current positions in spot trading are not significantly harmed. There's no need to worry about Bitcoin dipping a few points; it's quite normal. For altcoins, it's naturally more painful. There's nothing we can do. If you are holding mainstream value in spot, you can temporarily stay flat or prepare for maximum drawdown risk management. If you are in small meme altcoins, then don't consider averaging down because there will be a lot of data released this week, with various good and bad news fluctuating back and forth. It's easy to get hurt during this tug-of-war. The best approach is to stay flat and wait for the washing phase to end. At this stage, enter spot positions in batches and wait to enter contracts on the right side of the reversal.
Whether it's just before Trump's inauguration or right before our Spring Festival,
this round of manipulation is aimed at cleaning up the contract market. Currently, Bitcoin cannot fall below 96,500; if it does, the cleansing will go deeper. Looking back at past time nodes and patterns of manipulation, the current positions in spot trading are not significantly harmed. There's no need to worry about Bitcoin dipping a few points; it's quite normal. For altcoins, it's naturally more painful. There's nothing we can do. If you are holding mainstream value in spot, you can temporarily stay flat or prepare for maximum drawdown risk management. If you are in small meme altcoins, then don't consider averaging down because there will be a lot of data released this week, with various good and bad news fluctuating back and forth. It's easy to get hurt during this tug-of-war. The best approach is to stay flat and wait for the washing phase to end. At this stage, enter spot positions in batches and wait to enter contracts on the right side of the reversal.
Dollar plagiarism
看不懂的sol
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A Comprehensive Understanding: How the US Uses the Dollar to 'Harvest' the World
Why discuss the dollar tide? To successfully navigate the cryptocurrency market and macro cycles in US stocks, one must understand the rules of the dollar tide. These factors directly affect how money flows and the trajectory of financial cycles.
In 1944, the US established the 'Bretton Woods system,' creating the dollar's gold standard, and thereafter the dollar was referred to as 'USD.'
However, after the failure of the Vietnam War, the US's gold reserves rapidly diminished, making it difficult for the dollar to be exchanged for the originally stipulated amount of gold, leading to the announcement of the collapse of the Bretton Woods system after 1971.
So, why is the collapse of the Bretton Woods system considered the starting point of dollar hegemony? Because prior to that, the amount of gold reserves was the basis for a country's central bank to issue currency; paper currency was not supported by national credit but rather underpinned by gold. In other words, at that time, the dollar was merely a 'voucher for gold.' However, after the collapse of the Bretton Woods system, the dollar chose to be linked to oil, which does not possess the scarcity of gold, allowing the US to rely on its national credit to issue currency almost without restriction (this was also the foundation for the US's later unscrupulous behavior).
In 1944, the US established the 'Bretton Woods system,' creating the dollar's gold standard, and thereafter the dollar was referred to as 'USD.'
However, after the failure of the Vietnam War, the US's gold reserves rapidly diminished, making it difficult for the dollar to be exchanged for the originally stipulated amount of gold, leading to the announcement of the collapse of the Bretton Woods system after 1971.
So, why is the collapse of the Bretton Woods system considered the starting point of dollar hegemony? Because prior to that, the amount of gold reserves was the basis for a country's central bank to issue currency; paper currency was not supported by national credit but rather underpinned by gold. In other words, at that time, the dollar was merely a 'voucher for gold.' However, after the collapse of the Bretton Woods system, the dollar chose to be linked to oil, which does not possess the scarcity of gold, allowing the US to rely on its national credit to issue currency almost without restriction (this was also the foundation for the US's later unscrupulous behavior).
Respect the cycle, go with the flow
看不懂的sol
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In the cryptocurrency world, the most certain thing is the uncertainty of the market. To make money, one must seek high-probability profit opportunities in an uncertain market.
Market cycles may seem chaotic, but when viewed over a longer time frame, the patterns become quite clear. Respect the cycles, go with the flow, and leverage strength against strength!
Market cycles may seem chaotic, but when viewed over a longer time frame, the patterns become quite clear. Respect the cycles, go with the flow, and leverage strength against strength!
$BTC
看不懂的sol
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Countdown to Trump's inauguration: 15 days.
Here, I will begin to outline a series of bullish and bearish factors that may arise in the cryptocurrency industry after Chuanbao takes office. Today, we will start our analysis with his promised 【Ten New Policies for Cryptocurrency】. Without further ado, let's jump straight to the chart 👇👇
Focus: After Trump takes office, the promised #BTC National Strategic Reserve Plan will, at the earliest, be implemented six months later. This is undoubtedly a super positive for the cryptocurrency market. What does the market speculate on? It speculates on expectations; just one announcement of a Bitcoin strategic reserve can cause a price surge.
Here, I will begin to outline a series of bullish and bearish factors that may arise in the cryptocurrency industry after Chuanbao takes office. Today, we will start our analysis with his promised 【Ten New Policies for Cryptocurrency】. Without further ado, let's jump straight to the chart 👇👇
Focus: After Trump takes office, the promised #BTC National Strategic Reserve Plan will, at the earliest, be implemented six months later. This is undoubtedly a super positive for the cryptocurrency market. What does the market speculate on? It speculates on expectations; just one announcement of a Bitcoin strategic reserve can cause a price surge.
Learning
Quoted content has been removed
U.S. Macroeconomics
看不懂的sol
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Understand the basic framework of US macroeconomic analysis in one article "Collection-level dry goods"
To play well in the cryptocurrency and US stocks now, you must understand the US macroeconomics. You must keep a close eye on GDP, interest rate cuts and hikes, US bonds, the US dollar (exchange rate, US dollar index), FOMC meetings, CPI, etc. These factors directly affect how funds flow and how the financial cycle moves. Only by understanding these can you be at ease in the cryptocurrency circle.
1️⃣Overall economic situation
🟩Gross National Product: This indicator represents the value of all final goods and services produced by a country and is the most complete economic indicator. Functionally, it is also the broadest and most basic indicator of economic activity.
1️⃣Overall economic situation
🟩Gross National Product: This indicator represents the value of all final goods and services produced by a country and is the most complete economic indicator. Functionally, it is also the broadest and most basic indicator of economic activity.
$BTC
看不懂的sol
·
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Bull Market Top Escape Signal Indicator List (Simplified) 1-01
Reject noise and patiently wait, the bull market is still ongoing.
Some thoughts on BTC in 2025:
1. It is expected that BTC will record an annual increase of over 50% in 2025, reaching highs of $180,000 or even higher at $200,000, following the US stock market throughout the year, showing a M-shaped trend, peaking in December before retreating, with a decline of over 47% in 2026.
The equal-weight cryptocurrency index will accelerate after breaking through the 2021 high, with the increases of Ethereum and other mainstream tokens being even more exaggerated.
2. The relative strength of other mainstream altcoins has reached historical lows. I personally believe that in 2025, Ethereum, Litecoin, and Doge will see stronger upward momentum, with some institutions believing this basket of tokens could rise by about 200% to 500%. I am also more optimistic about ETH (I will allocate $500,000 for regular investments starting tomorrow), partly due to the demand for catch-up growth, and partly because with the launch of ETFs or other tools, more funds will flow in, especially with the continuation of trading sentiment surrounding Trump.
3. As the volatility of Bitcoin narrows, it is expected that more institutions and individual investors will allocate this asset. Since 2017, Bitcoin's absolute return rate has been approximately 7000%, with a Sharpe ratio of 1.108. In comparison, Tesla's return rate during the same period has been about 2000%, with a Sharpe ratio of 1.101, while Nvidia's return rate has been 5600%, with a Sharpe ratio of 1.996.
4. Historically, the cycles following Bitcoin halving usually lead to prolonged price increases, often lasting as long as a year (approximately 365 days). This trend suggests that the first quarter of 2025 will be dominated by the residual effects of the 2024 halving event, driving market optimism and pushing prices up. The halving reduces miner rewards, creating supply constraints and increasing demand, thus creating a favorable environment for Bitcoin's growth. This effect is expected to last until March-April 2025, providing ample opportunities for investors and traders.
Reject noise and patiently wait, the bull market is still ongoing.
Some thoughts on BTC in 2025:
1. It is expected that BTC will record an annual increase of over 50% in 2025, reaching highs of $180,000 or even higher at $200,000, following the US stock market throughout the year, showing a M-shaped trend, peaking in December before retreating, with a decline of over 47% in 2026.
The equal-weight cryptocurrency index will accelerate after breaking through the 2021 high, with the increases of Ethereum and other mainstream tokens being even more exaggerated.
2. The relative strength of other mainstream altcoins has reached historical lows. I personally believe that in 2025, Ethereum, Litecoin, and Doge will see stronger upward momentum, with some institutions believing this basket of tokens could rise by about 200% to 500%. I am also more optimistic about ETH (I will allocate $500,000 for regular investments starting tomorrow), partly due to the demand for catch-up growth, and partly because with the launch of ETFs or other tools, more funds will flow in, especially with the continuation of trading sentiment surrounding Trump.
3. As the volatility of Bitcoin narrows, it is expected that more institutions and individual investors will allocate this asset. Since 2017, Bitcoin's absolute return rate has been approximately 7000%, with a Sharpe ratio of 1.108. In comparison, Tesla's return rate during the same period has been about 2000%, with a Sharpe ratio of 1.101, while Nvidia's return rate has been 5600%, with a Sharpe ratio of 1.996.
4. Historically, the cycles following Bitcoin halving usually lead to prolonged price increases, often lasting as long as a year (approximately 365 days). This trend suggests that the first quarter of 2025 will be dominated by the residual effects of the 2024 halving event, driving market optimism and pushing prices up. The halving reduces miner rewards, creating supply constraints and increasing demand, thus creating a favorable environment for Bitcoin's growth. This effect is expected to last until March-April 2025, providing ample opportunities for investors and traders.
$BTC
看不懂的sol
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A Comprehensive Understanding of 'Laughing at Bulls and Bears': A Simple Trading System to Avoid Losses (Collectible Content)
1. Basic Principles of Investment
🟨 Do not trade without checking the chart: Never trade in the cryptocurrency market without viewing the price chart.
🟨 Avoid chasing highs on positive news: Never buy when positive news is released, especially when the price chart shows a significant increase before the news is published.
🟨 Do not bottom fish during price crashes: Never buy during a crash just because the price seems cheap. Under continuous selling pressure, the price is likely to go lower.
🟨 Stay away from downward trends: Never buy during a downward trend.
🟨 Do not hold onto declining currencies: Never hold cryptocurrencies that are in a downward trend, no matter how low their so-called 'valuation' may seem. When the price goes lower, you will understand the reasons for the decline.
🟨 Do not trade without checking the chart: Never trade in the cryptocurrency market without viewing the price chart.
🟨 Avoid chasing highs on positive news: Never buy when positive news is released, especially when the price chart shows a significant increase before the news is published.
🟨 Do not bottom fish during price crashes: Never buy during a crash just because the price seems cheap. Under continuous selling pressure, the price is likely to go lower.
🟨 Stay away from downward trends: Never buy during a downward trend.
🟨 Do not hold onto declining currencies: Never hold cryptocurrencies that are in a downward trend, no matter how low their so-called 'valuation' may seem. When the price goes lower, you will understand the reasons for the decline.
$BTC
看不懂的sol
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Bull Market Exit Signal Indicator Checklist (Simplified) 12-26
Holding Coins Final Chapter: Respect the Cycle and Keep the Rhythm
First, let's talk about the two common paths:
Buy → Get Stuck → Average Down → Hold → Wait
Buy → Profit → Double → Withdraw Principal → Continue Holding → Wait for Bottom to Buy
Why does this situation occur?
Respect the Cycle and Keep the Rhythm
The reasoning for holding coins is very simple:
If you chase two rabbits at the same time, you won't catch either.
Once you decide to hold coins, format all speculative thoughts out of your mind.
Do only one thing, just like sticking a stamp to an envelope; don't relax until you achieve your goal.
Remember to hold coins, only hold BTC.
For beginners, after trying various operations, they find that when they finally calculate the profits, none can compare to Bitcoin's increase.
Tops and bottoms are definitely not a single point, but a range. After the top distribution, there can be a second distribution, and bottom accumulation is also a range concept.
The principle is very simple: earn more coins through exiting at the top and buying at the bottom.
This is also the purpose of creating the (Bull Market Exit Signal Indicator Checklist).
To help new friends understand more intuitively, we have created a simplified version for daily updates, while the detailed version and data analysis are released weekly.
Holding Coins Final Chapter: Respect the Cycle and Keep the Rhythm
First, let's talk about the two common paths:
Buy → Get Stuck → Average Down → Hold → Wait
Buy → Profit → Double → Withdraw Principal → Continue Holding → Wait for Bottom to Buy
Why does this situation occur?
Respect the Cycle and Keep the Rhythm
The reasoning for holding coins is very simple:
If you chase two rabbits at the same time, you won't catch either.
Once you decide to hold coins, format all speculative thoughts out of your mind.
Do only one thing, just like sticking a stamp to an envelope; don't relax until you achieve your goal.
Remember to hold coins, only hold BTC.
For beginners, after trying various operations, they find that when they finally calculate the profits, none can compare to Bitcoin's increase.
Tops and bottoms are definitely not a single point, but a range. After the top distribution, there can be a second distribution, and bottom accumulation is also a range concept.
The principle is very simple: earn more coins through exiting at the top and buying at the bottom.
This is also the purpose of creating the (Bull Market Exit Signal Indicator Checklist).
To help new friends understand more intuitively, we have created a simplified version for daily updates, while the detailed version and data analysis are released weekly.
$BTC $ETH
南帝一灯大师
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Today's midday summary; Attention ⚠️ Attention ⚠️ Attention ⚠️
1: Brothers, Bitcoin (大饼) attempted to break through 99300 again last night but failed. It is currently oscillating in the range of 97500—98500. The daily closing pattern looks quite good, but it is merely a rebound. In the short term, it cannot break through 99300, and there is still a need for adjustment in the short cycle. The first lower interval is 96500, the second lower interval is 94500. However, altcoins can still catch a rebound opportunity during Bitcoin's short cycle adjustment, so everyone can keep an eye on it. Ethereum (以太) also rebounded last night, reaching a high of 3530, which is within the predicted range. The live broadcast has been reminding everyone that it would reach this position, and it has perfectly hit it. It is currently experiencing a slight adjustment, and you can wait for an opportunity at 3368.
2: It’s important to remind everyone that whether trading altcoins or meme coins, you must set stop-losses. Currently, Bitcoin's price has pulled back close to 100,000 USD, but market funds have seriously withdrawn, with approximately 150 billion funds extracted during the Christmas period for profit-taking. Recently, there hasn’t been any increase in money supply, and the funds in the market are still moving around, mainly in small-cap coins. So don’t get overly stimulated, especially for those who were trapped last week, it’s tough now. Why? Because the mainstream coins you hold have weak rebounds and haven’t reached break-even, and you are still down 20% or even 30%. You keep thinking about whether to cut losses and buy other altcoins, hoping to make a comeback. I can tell you, that’s exactly how the market pulls you in. They hope you sell your valuable mainstream coins and chase the new altcoins. Think about whether that was the pattern in October, where everyone chased meme coins, sold off valuable coins to cut losses, and ended up getting caught in the meme coin craze. In the end, the mainstream valuable coins you sold off doubled or even tripled in value. You then made the mistake of cashing out at a high price to buy meme coins, only to face adjustments and now being down 10—20% or even 30%. Your principal keeps shrinking, and the number of valuable coins you hold is also decreasing.
Think about whether this is how you operated. So now, even if you are down 10—20% on mainstream valuable coins, it’s okay. If you can withstand the floating losses past January, you’ll be able to enjoy the returns.
1: Brothers, Bitcoin (大饼) attempted to break through 99300 again last night but failed. It is currently oscillating in the range of 97500—98500. The daily closing pattern looks quite good, but it is merely a rebound. In the short term, it cannot break through 99300, and there is still a need for adjustment in the short cycle. The first lower interval is 96500, the second lower interval is 94500. However, altcoins can still catch a rebound opportunity during Bitcoin's short cycle adjustment, so everyone can keep an eye on it. Ethereum (以太) also rebounded last night, reaching a high of 3530, which is within the predicted range. The live broadcast has been reminding everyone that it would reach this position, and it has perfectly hit it. It is currently experiencing a slight adjustment, and you can wait for an opportunity at 3368.
2: It’s important to remind everyone that whether trading altcoins or meme coins, you must set stop-losses. Currently, Bitcoin's price has pulled back close to 100,000 USD, but market funds have seriously withdrawn, with approximately 150 billion funds extracted during the Christmas period for profit-taking. Recently, there hasn’t been any increase in money supply, and the funds in the market are still moving around, mainly in small-cap coins. So don’t get overly stimulated, especially for those who were trapped last week, it’s tough now. Why? Because the mainstream coins you hold have weak rebounds and haven’t reached break-even, and you are still down 20% or even 30%. You keep thinking about whether to cut losses and buy other altcoins, hoping to make a comeback. I can tell you, that’s exactly how the market pulls you in. They hope you sell your valuable mainstream coins and chase the new altcoins. Think about whether that was the pattern in October, where everyone chased meme coins, sold off valuable coins to cut losses, and ended up getting caught in the meme coin craze. In the end, the mainstream valuable coins you sold off doubled or even tripled in value. You then made the mistake of cashing out at a high price to buy meme coins, only to face adjustments and now being down 10—20% or even 30%. Your principal keeps shrinking, and the number of valuable coins you hold is also decreasing.
Think about whether this is how you operated. So now, even if you are down 10—20% on mainstream valuable coins, it’s okay. If you can withstand the floating losses past January, you’ll be able to enjoy the returns.
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