kqian5w

Spot positions have been established for the following reasons:

It is indeed a cheap position. The maximum retracement of BTC has been almost 15%. Although it cannot be considered a historic retracement, another 5% will be just that. The Christmas curse is all coincidence, and there is no point in delving into it. Of course, the dealer also knows this. If you are directly pulled up before the 25th, you will not be able to get on the train for the monthly correction opportunity. Will you be upset?

It is not impossible to reach the beginning of 8, but the probability is not high. If it reaches it, there will be no drop in the altcoins. The altcoins have already fallen and some have been cut in half from the highest price. They are all numb. What else can they do? There is no need for this little space.

In the past two days, the rebound strength of the altcoins has obviously rebounded, stronger than BTC. The key turning point is that when BTC goes down, the altcoins no longer follow, and there are even signs of warming up.

The most important thing is that the bull market has not finished. The ahr999 indicator has returned to the position of 1.4, and the fixed investment line is 1.2. What does it mean? In the last round of November 2020, at this 1.4 position, BTC was only 20,000. Later in the first quarter of 21, it rose to 60,000 in one go. Later, the AHR999 index was basically above 5. Although this index shrinks every year, its last bull peak was 10. It can't be over before it reaches 2, right?

Now, considering all the indicators, this price is 2-2.5w of BTC in the last round. Don't think it's too expensive. If you think it's too expensive, either you don't have a good foundation (you don't know that BTC supply and demand are more in line with the exponential growth model), or you haven't experienced a complete bull and bear market.

The bull market hasn't left, so cherish the bottom range once a month.

I bought $BNB $SUI $ENA

Spot positions have been established one after another, and the position has reached 70%, with bnb accounting for the largest proportion, and others can be bought at will

$SUI $ENA $BNB

The bottom in December is 90,500, and the worst case is 88,500, which shouldn't get any worse.

I keep so many bullets just to wait for these few days

The market is too boring.

u1s1, whether BTC passes the Microsoft shareholders' meeting resolution has little to do with the sharp drop in the early morning; it started to decline at 11 o'clock, and the meeting only started at half past midnight. The drop began before the news of the resolution not passing.

A group of people who think they are smart are just analyzing things randomly after the fact to find reasons.

Even if it passes, it will still drop; the trend of decline has formed. With good news, what are the expectations for a rise? It has risen too much before, and a correction is due. This is the pattern of asset fluctuations, it’s the same everywhere.

95,000 is strong support, last night proved this point is very strong. I thought it would go to 90,000. Overall, I don’t recommend making a move right now; it’s better to wait another day. What if it goes to 90,000? 90,000 is a real bottom.

$BTC

I knew there would be a drop of $BTC

Counterfeits can still drop, don't rush to take action

The market has some issues, reduce positions, let's wait for the non-farm payroll data to be released tonight

$BTC
$BTC

❗️The Significance of Breaking 100k

I thought that by early December we wouldn't see 100k, but I was mistaken; bull markets always come faster than expected. The direct catalyst for breaking 100k this time is Trump's appointment of Paul Atkins as SEC Chairman, and Atkins is a strong supporter of Bitcoin.

From the current perspective, the starting point of the crazy bull market is 100k, not the previous 70k. Why do I say this?

First, the U.S. government has legitimized Bitcoin, and it has now become a mainstream asset. With Trump's administration and Atkins' rise, Bitcoin is no longer the fringe asset it once was; it has transformed into a strategic reserve asset, and with the change in SEC Chairman, it is highly likely to be realized.

Second, 100k has a better communication effect and can bring in new incremental funds, rather than just the game of mutual liquidation among insiders between 70-100k. Remember how painful it was during the six months of bearishness around 70k? Without new incremental funds coming in, it is very uncomfortable; a bottom at 100k will attract new money into the crypto space, especially traditional Wall Street funds (those who only deal in U.S. stocks and bonds).

Finally, new expectations have not formed, and the imagination space is limitless. For example, the previous 100k was derived from the old expectations and consensus from the last bull market; whether it can be realized is not important. What matters is that it gave Bitcoin a rough valuation, and everyone knows to reduce their holdings as it approaches 100k, providing a valuation anchor. Now that we have broken through, where is the anchor? We don't know; it needs to be traded out. The future expected influx of funds is substantial, and the imagination space is limitless—150k, 200k, 300k are all possible. There were even overseas research reports over 100 pages long predicting 500k...

What should we do at this time? Wait for Bitcoin to pull back and then go all in on altcoins; just hold and relax. Just do your job well in the meantime and don't think about getting rich every day.

The average person is a sb.

I posted a post to analyze the market, and I didn't offend anyone, but there were migrant workers who didn't even graduate from elementary school who came to scold me. I was broken, they are all pure sb.

I graduated from a prestigious university after all, and now I work in A-shares, I have been an analyst, and I have done real-time trading. I tell the truth about point judgments. These bastards can't tolerate me, right?

Poor bastards really don't deserve sympathy, and I can't help them. They are either brainwashed by the dog dealer, talking to the dog dealer every day, carrying the sedan chair for the dog dealer, and even recognizing the dog dealer as their father. In the end, they returned to zero and ran Meituan takeout, saying that they will fight again in the next round. I laughed to death.

I don't want to post anymore, I'll go to 9w next time, all of you go to hell.

How will BTC perform in the coming week?

It is clear that at the beginning of December, it will still fluctuate widely between 90,000 and 100,000. Note that it will not drop to 88,000, which is an absurd price. Now that BTC has matured, it is no longer like the low-market-cap coins from previous bull markets.

It will not rise to 100,000; even if it does, it will come back down, as there is no influx of new capital.

The funds brought in by BTC's fluctuations will flow through every sector and cause all to rise again. In my last post, I pointed out to seize the opportunity during the altcoin season; 90,000 to 100,000 is a very good time period where you can continuously sell high and buy low.

Now, there is no one in the market saying that buying low-market-cap coins will outperform BTC, because BTC's fluctuations have released liquidity, and just a little bit is enough for low-market-cap coins to double. Not to mention, look at how big XRP's market cap has risen; it's quite frightening.

If you are not making money now, you will earn even less in the blood-sucking market above 100,000.

What stage of the bull market are we in now? Mid-term, it can still last for half a year before crashing down to 100,000.

Everyone should be clear that BTC is priced in USD. As long as the U.S. stock market experiences a flash crash that releases liquidity, supported by Trump's policies, interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, and other factors, BTC is very solid. Right now, BTC will not randomly experience a drop of more than 10%.

I speculate that by the end of 2025, the third wave of the bull market will come, which will occur after the fourth halving of BTC, leading to a first-ever triple peak in 2024-2025.

11.27 Market Trend Prediction

During this period, BTC has pulled back to 90,000, and it is expected that it will continue to adjust within the range of 90,000 to 100,000 in the future, with little chance of exceeding 100,000 in the short term, as there is significant selling pressure at 100,000, making it extremely difficult to break through each time.

Where will the increase come from in the future? It is clearly from altcoins. If you haven’t made money from altcoins in the 90,000 to 100,000 range, you probably won't make money even if it goes above 100,000, because when BTC hits a new high, altcoins will pull back. It is essential to grasp the altcoin season during the 90,000 to 100,000 fluctuation.

Here, do not buy altcoins with too small market capitalization; do not consider those below 1 billion USD market cap.

When the next altcoin season comes, BTC is likely to be between 120,000 and 150,000. At that time, holding altcoins will be risky, as a pullback in BTC could lead to a complete sell-off.

❗️What's next?

1) BTC will fluctuate between 9.5 and 10 before December 1, but will not reach 10;

2) It will definitely reach 10 in December, but will plummet back to 9 in 2-3 days, but it will not fall much, and will not go to 8, because BTC is bought by institutions and there is no great selling pressure. This information is very important;

3) Before December, as long as BTC is sideways, it will give most small coins room to make up for the rise; and there will be a third wave of small and medium-sized market value coins (5-30e$) to perform more exaggerated market conditions, which will be stronger than the current fil/dot/uni, and the market value will be smaller.

4) BTC is around 10w, and with the last wave of small coins making up for the rise, remember to reduce your position/short position.

5) Last time, I successfully predicted that dot/uni/fil would start, and now I will recommend 3 small coins: ray/saga/op

Let me share a few trading ideas with everyone, this is not a secret:

1) First, do not chase highs, especially when the trading volume exceeds 2 ETH within an hour; there will definitely be a pullback, and entering at this point is like being a 'retail investor', for example, at the high point of DOGE/PNUT, this is the easiest pit to avoid;

2) Secondly, try to position yourself in some coins that haven't risen or haven't risen enough.
For instance, I made enough profit from previous memes, and later I bought ADA/DOT. Before buying DOT, I hesitated a lot, wondering when this coin would be promising, but with the push of execution, I still bought it. Why? Because its position was very low, at least I wouldn’t lose too much money. Sometimes, using a defensive mindset to trade can help you understand many things clearly.

3) Maintain a good mindset and avoid thoughts of getting rich quickly. For example, I made a lot from DOT and have already sold it, but it’s still rising. However, don’t feel like you sold too early; set a target for yourself, aiming to make a 30% profit and then sell. What if it rises to $10? It has nothing to do with me. I don’t need to make a lot; my goal is to avoid being cut by the market, and I’m fine as long as I make money within my understanding range.

One must avoid being too greedy; otherwise, if it drops, you won’t even earn what you should have. This is a mindset issue.

4) Do not act as a value investor; hold your coins flexibly. BTC/ETH don’t count, but others cannot be considered value investments. If you cannot hold for the long term as a value investor, don’t deceive yourself into believing you are one. Ask yourself, how long have you held BTC? Did this round of spot trading exceed BTC's increase? If you haven’t achieved it, don’t claim to be a value investor; it’s quite meaningless. Inconsistency between words and actions is a big taboo.

Holding coins as a value investment is a lazy behavior because no matter how much you pay attention to the market, you cannot adjust your position. Who made you do this? Who promoted value investing? It’s the speculators. They hope you never sell to take profits. So be a bit clearer; don’t try to be the master of time, but be the master of cycles. I believe that when the 25-year bull market ends, there will be no fool still holding onto spot trading.

5) High leverage contracts are doomed. Especially with 5x full leverage, it doesn’t matter how much you earn; losing an account of 100 million is just a matter of minutes. When you see screenshots of profits from big players’ contracts, think about it: how much money do they have, and what proportion did they use for this trade (it might be less than 5% of their total funds)? Does losing affect their normal life?

Recommendation: $UNI $FIL $AR

To reiterate my previous point: don’t have any illusions.
Bitcoin's current hiding of 7w is the same as Trump's hiding of bullets. The market's incremental funds are seriously insufficient, and the general environment does not support increasing the market value. Don't even dream about small coins. Whoever buys small coins will die. Such a market is not worthy of belief. Just reduce your position honestly. Otherwise, before the bull market comes (I even think it is a bear market now), the money will be gone. That's really I have to wait for the next round.
Prediction: The scumbag market with a wide range of 6.2-7.3w will most likely continue until September.

The recent market is just because of the expectation of interest rate cuts after Trump took office, and the marginal improvement of June data, which has driven a little bit of market and allowed BTC to climb out from below 60,000.
BTC has no financial support to reach 7.5W and above (even if it reaches 8W, I will open a short position). Before the real implementation of the interest rate cut in September, it will fluctuate widely. Don't have any illusions.
As for small coins, except for bottom-fishing, whoever buys at a high position will die. Due to the existence of Wall Street ETFs, the price of BTC has always been artificially high. The market has not been truly ignited, and the premium of BTC will not flow to the cottage. Therefore, the actual price of BTC is actually around 5W. It is the ETF institutions that buy the valuation. The cottage bull must be 8.5-9W to start.
$BTC $PEOPLE $1000SATS

The B-circle has become A-shares. When BTC rises, small coins fall. When BTC falls, small coins fall. As long as BTC fluctuates widely between 6.6-7.2, other currencies basically have no money-making effect. It is extremely disgusting. Most people will be shaken to death. It is better to hold the spot honestly.

As long as BTC does not break through the previous high, it is impossible to start a new round of market

You can buy the bottom at this position. There is not much room for further decline. You can buy anything you want.

$BTC $SOL $PEOPLE

The possibility of a subsequent decline is gradually becoming smaller. We are optimistic that some medium-sized mainstream coins will rise first. Before June 8, we are not optimistic about small coins with a market value of less than 100 million US dollars.