The likelihood of an Ethereum ETF approval by May has significantly decreased, with analysts now setting the probability at around 30-35%
. This shift in perspective is due to a lack of activity among relevant parties, particularly the SEC, despite recent discussions between Coinbase, Grayscale, and the SEC regarding the potential conversion of Grayscale’s Ethereum Trust into an ETF
. The absence of clear progress has led to growing skepticism about the regulatory green light for Ethereum ETFs, contrasting the more optimistic stance held previously . While some industry observers like Variant Fund’s Chief Legal Officer remain cautiously optimistic about clearer signals from the SEC in the upcoming weeks, major investment banks such as JPMorgan and TD Cowen project an unlikely approval by May
. Despite these lowered expectations, there is still a belief that an ETH ETF could be approved sometime this year, even if not in May