Bitcoin maintained a downward trend overall yesterday, with the market entering a consolidation phase after pulling back from a high position. Currently, the rebound strength is weak.
The daily chart still shows a weak consolidation, with the intraday fluctuation range continuously compressing. If the 97000 level cannot effectively stabilize, the market is expected to continue to retract downwards.
Currently, a pressured pullback has occurred. If the rebound does not continue for a long time, once the bullish momentum is exhausted, there is a risk of another intraday pullback.
In terms of operations, it is recommended to short in the range of 96800-97300 for Bitcoin, watching the lower level of 94500. If it breaks and stabilizes, watch for 92000. Ethereum should also short in sync, watching the lower level of 2550.
The market of Bitcoin has been fluctuating recently, with long and short positions interspersed between the ranges. It is a relatively good market for our trading. The long and short position strategy suggestions in recent days are very accurate. I believe that friends who follow up will also gain a lot.
As of early this morning, the price of Bitcoin has maintained low volatility, and the short-term trend is relatively weak. It is currently traveling far in the area around 95,800, and the price fluctuates greatly in a short period of time.
The range is still moving down, and the price of Bitcoin remains below the Bollinger middle axis. The daily suppression position has moved down. If it refreshes the low again in the future, the price may further fall.
For Bitcoin operations, it is recommended to go short in the 96,800-97,300 range, look at the bottom 94,000, and go short in Ethereum at the same time, looking at around 2,450
BNB is significantly influenced by macro factors such as comments from the Federal Reserve, and currently faces some selling pressure overall, but BNB has previously performed relatively strongly.
It is necessary to pay attention to whether the price will break through the Bollinger Bands range. If it breaks through the upper band, a new round of increase may occur; otherwise, it may face downward pressure.
It is recommended to short at the 716 level and watch for the 650 level below.
From the short-term hourly chart, the current low has reached 94100 and there has been a rebound. So far, the Bollinger middle rail suppression has been broken, and the trend is still running in the middle rail area.
And the upper suppression is constantly moving down. The current MACD is in the negative area, and both the fast and slow are running downward. The short-term trend is weak, and the lower rail gap has not been closed.
Once the subsequent rebound is weak, the trend is expected to fall again. The current trend remains weak and volatile, and the daily level gains are giving back, so it is recommended to focus on short-term rebound short orders.
For the operation of the big cake, it is recommended to go short directly at 97800-98300, look at 94500 below, and go short at the same time for Ethereum, look at 2600 below
Two consecutive prompts suggest a long position at the current price, from 94200, over 2650, and currently have secured a profit of 4000 points, with a space of 200 points for Ethereum. An opportunity is right in front of you, just reach out and grab it.
Although the recent trend of BNX has been relatively strong, the speed of future price increases is likely to slow down. There are certain short-selling opportunities at the current price level, and if executed properly, a profit margin of around 15% can be obtained.
It is recommended to short directly at the current price of 0.87, targeting below 0.7.
From a technical indicator perspective, the MACD histogram has remained positive but is gradually shortening, indicating that the strength of the bulls has been weakening. However, today's price has increased by 22.98%, so we need to pay attention to whether there will be a shift in the balance of power between bulls and bears.
It is recommended to short at the current price of 0.186 and watch the support level at 0.160.
SYN's multiple indicators show overbought, and the market may be pessimistic about SYN in the short term. The intraday increase is 27%, so you can try to go high.
SYN is currently priced at 0.47, so go short directly, and look at the 0.4 below
Sol gave a high of 205 two days ago. There is 10 points of space now. Once the support level of 191 is broken, the price is likely to continue to fall to 175.
At 11 PM tonight, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will appear on Capitol Hill to deliver his semiannual monetary policy testimony in the Senate.
The direction of his remarks has become the focus of attention, and there will likely be significant fluctuations in the early morning. What will happen to the market afterwards?
At present, although the market has rebounded somewhat, the upward pressure is also very strong. Therefore, in the short term, the 100,000 mark will become an important dividing line for whether this market can reverse.
Currently, the price is maintaining a range-bound movement at the four-hour level, with upward pressure at the 98,500 mark. We will see if there is an effective breakthrough during the day.
If the price does not break, it will continue to extend the Bollinger band range and continue to oscillate. If it breaks the pressure, the price will inevitably return to 100,000. However, considering the larger weekly K-level, the overall trend is still leaning towards bearish.
In terms of operations, it is recommended to short Bitcoin in the 98,000-98,500 range, watching the lower level of 96,500, and to short Ethereum in sync, watching the lower level of 2,550.
In stark contrast to gold's strong performance, Bitcoin has recently experienced a significant sell-off, with prices coming under downward pressure due to the same uncertainties. Bitcoin fell 1% in 24 hours, Ethereum fell 1.8%, and other cryptocurrencies also faced varying degrees of downward pressure.
This round of correction was mainly affected by the inflationary pressure caused by tariffs, and the market was worried that the Federal Reserve might accelerate the pace of interest rate hikes as a result. Rising interest rates are generally bad for riskier assets like Bitcoin.
Despite the overall market downturn, Bitcoin ETFs (exchange-traded funds) are still attracting some investor interest. However, positioning data suggests the Bitcoin market trend is weakening, with selling pressure on exchanges reaching its highest level since the collapse of the Three Arrows Capital (3AC) crypto hedge fund.
Let me share a feasible plan. If you can execute it, earning 10 million is achievable.
1. Initial capital of around 100,000.
2. Buy coins when Bitcoin is above the MA20 on the weekly chart, purchasing two to three coins, making sure they are new coins, hot coins in a bear market, like APT before it surged. It emerged from the bear market; as long as Bitcoin rises a bit, it could take off, like OP. Just remember, it has to be trendy, with a story to tell.
3. If Bitcoin drops below MA20, cut losses. Continue to earn money during the buying or waiting period, allowing yourself two to three chances to fail. If you have 20,000 in savings, invest 10,000; you can afford to fail three times.
4. If you manage to buy coins like ORDI, aim for about 20 times your investment. Continuously execute the strategy, remembering that with small funds, you must buy new coins and avoid buying ETH or BTC. Their price increases won't support your dreams.
5. If the bear market transitions to a bull market, achieving three times a 5x return could yield around 125 times. This timeframe could be as short as a year or as long as three years.
You have three chances to fail; if you fail all three times, it indicates you lack the ability, and you should distance yourself from this circle, avoid investing, and certainly steer clear of contracts.
Invest your energy in work, cultivate your hobbies, enhance your skills, and earn well in your job. When you are relatively mature and stable, around your 30s, if you encounter a bear market like in 2022 again, reinvest 100,000 and try again using the above methods. If you're still unsuccessful, then focus on stable work and stay away from the crypto world.
The key to the above method is patience; if you lack patience and lose your footing, exit quickly and avoid contracts.
In summary, remember to enter the market when it's time, cut losses when needed, and have patience. The secret to success has been shared; whether you can make a name for yourself in the world depends on your own efforts.
The second common mistake is 'lifestyle inflation', but it is rarely mentioned.
Many traders recklessly speculate on how much they can earn in the next month, quarter, or even year based on short-term portfolio growth and returns.
Social media, like Twitter, exacerbates this mentality—there are always people flaunting more expensive watches, fancier sports cars, more extravagant Dubai lifestyles, and enviable PnL screenshots. This content makes you feel like your achievements are never good enough.
As a result, many traders significantly upgrade their lifestyles, starting to spend wealth they do not actually have. This behavior is often based on blind optimism from short-term gains, unreasonably projecting it into the future.
However, when the market cools down, you may find yourself in deep trouble, and significantly cutting back on your lifestyle can not only hurt your self-esteem but, in many cases, also seem unrealistic.
Summary: Current market conditions may put your thinking in a dangerous state:
Do not assume these conditions will last forever. Do not assume your strategy will always yield linear growth, whether in terms of time or capital size. Do not assume that after a significant increase in position size, you can still manage trades in the same way (both in execution and psychologically). Do not assume you have completely mastered market rules and can remain profitable forever. Do not use current market conditions as a benchmark for your future income. Assume you are a fallible, prone to arrogance person, and that previous successes were more due to luck. Approach yourself, your trading strategy, and especially your arrogance with this humble mindset.
A common mistake many traders make is to view the dollar value of their portfolio as actual wealth in hand.
First, traders assume that a trading strategy that worked early on will continue to work. However, market conditions and strategy suitability change, and many strategies cannot scale to a larger scale.
Traders often have serious consequences when they continue to add positions as market volatility increases without reality-checking their strategies.
It only takes a little bit of excessive leverage, a little bit of market shock, and a little bit of panic to cause a trader to suffer huge losses when the market turns around, or even deal a fatal blow to a portfolio.
Worse, this situation is often accompanied by arrogance and stubbornness, such as the mentality of "this strategy made me $N before, why should I change?"
Although I have mentioned this issue many times, you may be surprised at how easy it is to self-hypnotize yourself and think that you are a "trading genius" when you make a lot of money in a short period of time.
In this case, people often ignore the importance of market conditions and are unwilling to admit that they were just lucky, and mistakenly attribute all their gains to their so-called "newfound trading ability."
When you finally realize that the main factor that really drove your gains was the market, not your own ability, it is usually too late.
Your portfolio's peak or all-time high net worth does not represent real wealth.
Even your current portfolio or profit and loss (especially the unrealized portion) cannot be taken for granted.
The core point is: how much you earn doesn't matter; what matters is how much you can keep.
As I mentioned in previous articles, most people (whether by active choice or passive result) will fall into one of two situations: either they earn little but keep a lot, or they earn a lot but keep little.
What you must avoid is a terrible middle ground—earning little and keeping little, which is the greatest failure.
Unrealized large profits and assets that return to the starting point do not bring any real value.
Screenshots of historical peak earnings cannot pay your bills.
When faced with these numbers, you need to be wary of some hidden but dangerous traps.
Many people mistakenly believe that the growth rate of their portfolio will remain linear, or even continue to accelerate.
However, the calm reality is that the main force driving your wealth growth is often the overall market conditions, not your individual trading ability.
Although the saying “In a bull market, everyone is a genius” is somewhat one-sided, people often overlook the huge impact of unusual market conditions on their performance when evaluating themselves.
Sticking it out and making money under these favorable conditions is commendable, but at the same time, one must remain humble and recognize that these conditions are temporary, not permanent.
The first trap is mistaking the current market environment as the 'new normal' and assuming that your trading results will indefinitely maintain the same level, and that your portfolio will grow at the same rate.
In fact, this assumption is almost impossible to hold. Why is this assumption wrong?
First, current market conditions will not last forever. If you continue to respond with the same trading methods, you may earn less or even incur losses.
Second, trading strategies will become ineffective. Even if market conditions remain unchanged for a long time (which is nearly impossible), the effectiveness of your trading strategy will gradually diminish.
Third, as your portfolio grows, it becomes harder to achieve the same high multiples of return on larger amounts of capital. The larger the scale, the more limited your flexibility and ability to seize opportunities.