一鸣的交易笔记

Recently, BTC has risen significantly, and there will definitely be some altcoins that will surge.
However, participating in altcoins should be approached with caution right now, as the market is still at the bottom, not in an upward trend.

If BTC experiences a pullback, most altcoins will likely pull back even more, so buying altcoins recently might lead to being stuck.

If you didn't catch the recent 7% surge in Bitcoin, there's really no need to blame yourself.

This market movement wasn't indicated in the technical charts.

It was purely sparked by a single statement from the understanding king, igniting the sentiment.

Yesterday, RFC made it to the central news!

This is a sign that hasn't appeared in a long time. Could it ignite the market on the SOL chain?

Moreover, the market has indeed been a bit sluggish these past few days; it's time for the golden dog to come out and save everyone! Keep an eye on the golden dog opportunities on the SOL chain!

Dear friends, these days the cryptocurrency world is even more lively than a box opening by the De Yun Society!

Bitcoin jumped from $74,000 to $83,000 in a strong rally, while Ethereum was bouncing around at $1,600 like it was bungee jumping. This rollercoaster market has left the newcomers completely bewildered. If we are to talk about the mastermind behind this market wave, it has to be the Twitter nation spokesperson, Comrade Trump.

On April 3rd, old Trump suddenly slammed the table: "All tariffs around the world, raise them all for me!" The market immediately reacted as if it had wet its pants, with BTC dropping $6,000 instantly. Then China retaliated with a "double," and old Trump got even more fired up: "I want to raise it by 50%!" Goodness, miners were lining up on rooftops faster than new coins were released.

And guess what happened? Two days later, this old man suddenly changed his tune: "Except for China, other tariffs are on a 90-day moratorium~" The market immediately peaked, and BTC rebounded at lightning speed. This maneuver was slicker than a flash loan on the blockchain! If you ask me, this is not an economic policy at all; it's just Trump putting on a sob story in front of the Federal Reserve: "If you don't lower interest rates, I'll show you how I can die right here!"

Next, the logic of the secondary main line remains unchanged. From the current perspective of the entire market, uncertainty still exists. Since uncertainty still exists, it is difficult to see a significant one-sided surge in the short term; it will mainly be characterized by wide fluctuations.

Therefore, Trump has given us a golden opportunity, we must dare to seize it. In the future, with Trump creating various favorable conditions, we must also be bold enough to sell.

#保护您的资产

The main focus these days: 1. Will gold continue to soar? 2. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond.

Especially the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond, which is a barometer of the China-U.S. game.

Later there will be a golden opportunity for you to buy the dip.

#加密市场反弹

A Night of Thunder, the Market Explodes!

With a tweet from Trump, global assets soared rapidly. At 23:40, Trump tweeted to announce "The buying opportunity has arrived," only to pivot 3 hours later and announce a 125% tariff increase on East Asia. Only East Asia was hit hard, while other countries received a 90-day buffer. A typical American single-point strike was performed, and the market welcomed a shocking reversal.

Market Explosion:

US stocks surged, the Australian dollar soared, oil prices shot up, and the bond market turned positive. Investors who bought the dip closely followed the market; however, all of this seemed to lack rational support—driven entirely by news! In this situation, it's clear that traditional policies are not driving the market, but rather typical of tweet trading. Be quick, and you win; be slow, and you get hit!

Personal Opinion:

Although the 90-day tariff suspension seems beneficial, and the market reacted quickly, this “good news” is actually full of uncertainty. A 90-day pause is merely a time window; Trump could revoke this pause at any moment, or he could announce a new round of bad news. Although the market has rebounded in the short term, the risks brought by these fluctuations should not be ignored. #特朗普暂停新关税

After breaking through 80k last night, Bitcoin has wilted this morning and dropped back to around 74.6k. This rebound is completely over. It didn't even get a chance to touch 81k, the pace is incredibly fast!

Personally, I feel there’s a high probability that it will next probe down to the range of 74 to 68.8k, then recover to 73.8k, and test around 66.3k again, before making another rebound. In simpler terms, it’s a rollercoaster that dips first and then pulls back up.

As for Ethereum, I guess no one wants to look at it anymore. If I held Ethereum spot, I would also be really frustrated. To be honest, Ethereum itself isn’t that problematic; the points of criticism are mainly that Ethereum and the foundation are too laid-back and can't keep up with the pace of the times.

With the market in such chaos, they don’t even come out to say something to comfort us, not even an effort to stabilize emotions. In this regard, Vitalik is not as good as Chuanzi at handling things.

If you're still losing money in this current market playing short-term trades, I believe there’s only one reason: you’re going against the trend. When it drops to a low point, you think you can catch the bottom, but what happens? You try to catch the bottom, and it catches you instead!

The current value of the 10-day MA for BTC is 78942.3, and the 30-day MA is 82156.7. The price has been below the 30-day MA for 6 consecutive days, and the 10-day MA has crossed below the 30-day MA, forming a death cross, confirming a short-term downward trend. The bearish arrangement of MAs is evident.

If the weekly close is above 78500, it will alleviate downward pressure; a drop below 74000 requires caution for accelerated declines. Pay attention to the SEC meeting on April 11 and the subsequent developments in tariff policies. #保持SAFU

Recently, OKX's newly launched WalletConnect has been hyped up, but those who understand know that this thing going live is likely just a way for project teams to set up another 'legal harvesting machine.' Retail investors, keep your wallets tight and don’t get too excited and end up giving away your heads!

Looking at BN’s recent antics with that Megadrop, they're luring people to deposit BOB into their wallets and then lock up BNB. On the surface, it seems like a benefit, but in reality, it’s a 'gentle knife.' Those small coins that got delisted are directly performing high-altitude dives, and coins like HARD are being cut in half in a day. Do they really think retail investors are made of titanium alloy?

Even more outrageous, Meme coins are starting to act up again! This RFC thing, where Musk can make it surge by 50% with just a casual comment, has now pushed the market cap to 60 million dollars, and the bubble is bigger than the hype of a nightclub's atmosphere group.

And don’t even think about jumping into that re-staking pit! This Kernel project on the BSC chain sounds impressive, but it’s essentially a 'chain trap' — making you stake BNB, which is essentially a funding scheme colluded by the exchange and the project team. The risk is even greater than going to Macau: win, and you get a young model at a club; lose, and you’re hauling bricks at a construction site!

The big pancake just showed off for two days before revealing its true colors, performing a high dive in 24 hours, plummeting from $81,000 to $75,000, even losing its shorts!

Ethereum is worse off, directly shot in the knee, dropping to $1,380, even the eternally dormant Dogecoin was kicked off a 9% cliff. BNB is barely hanging on at $537, and Sun Yuchen wants to shut down the exchange and run away overnight just by looking at it. SOL plunging to $102 is even more thrilling than when SBF went down; what kind of correction is this?

It's simply the cryptocurrency version of "Fast and Furious: The Annihilation Edition".

Bitcoin Today's Trend Analysis

Technical Analysis and Support Levels: The current Bitcoin price has fallen below the key support level of $69,000, the peak in 2021, with the latest price at $75,739.

The 'Lowest Price Prediction Model' indicates that there is a 95% chance that BTC will not fall below $69,000; otherwise, short-term selling pressure will increase. The resistance level above is $73,800, and the support reference below is the $69,000 area.

Capital Flow and Institutional Behavior: Bitcoin ETF has seen stable inflows since March 14, but the overall capital outflow in the first quarter is $4.8 billion, offsetting the corporate buying effect. On-chain data shows that Bitcoin whales have increased their holdings by 129,000 BTC since March 11, and long-term holders may be accumulating at lower prices.

Macroeconomic and Policy Risks: If tonight's U.S. PCE inflation data exceeds expectations, it will strengthen the Federal Reserve's high interest rate outlook, suppressing risk asset prices. The SEC has withdrawn some lawsuits and plans to promote a cryptocurrency policy roundtable, easing the regulatory environment, which may boost market confidence.

Today's Trend Prediction: If the $69,000 support level holds, it may rebound to the $75,000 - $78,000 range; if it breaks below, it may briefly test $65,000. Be cautious of volatility after the release of macroeconomic data. #美国加征关税

The impact of the trade war on the crypto market is like a roller coaster, unfolding in three phases.

First phase: Panic. As soon as there are any signs of a trade war, everyone rushes to sell without thinking twice. During this time, there is a lot of panic selling, and Bitcoin, mainstream coins, and altcoins all suffer, with prices plummeting, just like in the past few days.

Second phase: Smart money starts picking assets. Once the panic subsides a bit, institutions begin to selectively choose their investments. At this point, a clear polarization occurs: Bitcoin, mainstream coins (like Ethereum), and exchange tokens (like BNB) start to resist falling prices, while worthless "air coins" and "shitcoins" continue to drop until they are unrecognizable.

Third phase: Bottoming out and rebounding, starting a new trend. As Bitcoin, Ethereum, and other core assets stabilize, the market reveals its true treasures as the tide recedes; those that need to be eliminated are weeded out, and a new wave of market activity is about to begin.

So, where are we now? There is no doubt that the trade war has been affecting sentiment since the beginning of the year, and we are currently in the late stages of panic selling, just beginning to enter the asset-picking phase. At this moment, it is crucial to keep a close eye on on-chain funds, including where institutions are pouring their money.

We should also focus on popular sectors and leading altcoins, such as the AI sector, meme sector, and RWA sector. The good projects that have been unfairly punished are now prime candidates for adding to portfolios as we wait for signals to enter the market. Everyone must remain clear-headed; in this market, staying alive is the most important thing.

Once and Future