🔥CME closed for the weekend at a level of 43.8K. This indicates that the closure above the breached resistance zone may also occur on the weekly chart, which is generally favorable.
There is nothing new on the chart; the price is moving within a "bullish pennant" on the 4-hour chart. It is crucial to stay above 43K and break above 44K to continue the upward movement.
However, dominance is showing a significant decrease: the price bounced off the mid-boundary of the ascending channel and is now attempting to break below the lower boundary. Altcoins are feeling positive against this backdrop. It is hoped that dominance will start a substantial decline soon. However, this won't happen without breaking out of the ascending channel.
Bitcoin dominance: 52.88%; Fear and Greed Index: 70 (Greed); Altseason Index: 55; Market capitalization: $1.61 trillion.
The CME opened today at the same prices as they closed on Friday. The weekend passed calmly, as expected. Similarly, no significant movements should be anticipated for the rest of the year. The focus is already shifting to the calculations for the next year.
Nevertheless, yesterday Bitcoin attempted to rebound from the 4-hour MA50-100 and the Ichimoku Cloud and break above the resistance zone. However, a local downtrend hinders further movement.
❗️ Today, the price bounced down from this trendline, but Bitcoin is currently being supported by dynamic levels, primarily the MA100 and the Ichimoku Cloud. The breakout of resistance or support will indicate the priority for Bitcoin's further price movement:
⚫️ Break above 43.6K — upward movement to 44.2K - 45K
⚫️ Break below 42.5K — downward movement to 42K - 41K
It is currently challenging to predict further movement. However, considering that the price has firmly established itself below the breached support zone, the outlook appears less favorable, at least in the short term.
Bitcoin dominance: 52.01%; Fear and Greed Index: 71 (Greed); Altseason Index: 67; Market capitalization: $1.6 trillion.
On the 4-hour chart, a "bullish flag" is forming right above the broken resistance zone and below the -27% Fibonacci level. Once the upper boundary of the flag is breached, the rise towards $45-46k will begin.
Overall, the market looks good. Particularly noteworthy is SOL, which has finally reached the psychological mark of $100, but we'll discuss that separately.
On the BTC chart, in addition to the formation of bullish patterns, the breaking of significant resistances, and compression toward the next ones, there are also expectations for the approval of spot BTC-ETFs in early next year. Against this backdrop, the market is moving upward, especially altcoins, as BTC dominance locally decreases while the price remains in place.
In summary: I'm waiting for the breakout of $44k and the continuation of the rise to $45-46k, and in the best-case scenario, $48-50k. These figures are quite realistic in the near future, especially given the positive information about ETFs.
Bitcoin Dominance: 53.12%; Fear and Greed Index: 74 (Greed); Altcoin Season Index: 53; Market Capitalization: $1.64 trillion.
📈Bitcoin has broken above $43k. The day closed quite well, around $43.6k, and on the 4-hour chart, there are already several candles above the resistance zone. Considering the retest of the broken resistance, this indicates a solid consolidation and the potential for further upward movement, at least towards $45k. The most favorable scenario would be a rise to $48k.
❗️The crucial point now is to maintain levels above $43k and not drop below. Another decline would only start if Bitcoin falls below this level — initially to $42k, and in a worst-case scenario, to $40k. However, I'm not currently counting on this secondary scenario to play out.
🚀For the continuation of the upward movement, it's necessary to break the local zone at -27% Fibonacci, located around $44k, indicating the potential for growth to -61.8% Fibonacci, at $45.3k. Additionally, seeing a surpass of the last maximum would confirm the strength of the buyers.
Bitcoin Dominance: 53.88%; Fear and Greed Index: 70 (Greed); Altcoin Season Index: 53; Market Capitalization: $1.586 trillion.
🪙 On the 4-hour chart, Bitcoin is forming a situation conducive to growth ⚡️Let's examine it.
⭐️Below the $43,200 level, a head and shoulders reversal pattern is forming. This is a clear indication of upward movement.
The chart shows a very strong bullish pattern, signaling further price growth 🔼.
Key points to note:
1️⃣ A sideways range where the price is moving — 40.5K to 43.5K. Also, local supports within it, such as the MA50-100 and the Ichimoku Cloud on the 4-hour chart.
2️⃣ The growth will continue only after breaking above the upper boundary of the sideways range, above 43K.
❗️Current scenario: After an increase and another test of the upper boundary of the sideways range, the price locally retraced down for a retest of the MA50-100 and the Ichimoku Cloud, which are currently acting as the main supports. They prevent the price from falling back to 40.5K. There is a bounce, both from them and from the local correction zone of 61.8% Fibonacci. If the buyer demonstrates strength and manages to break 43K, we can confidently expect growth, first to 44K and then to 45K.
Bitcoin Dominance: 53.58%; Fear and Greed Index: 74 (Greed); Altcoin Season Index: 55; Market Capitalization: $1.568 trillion.
⚫️ On one hand, CME closed for the weekend at around 42.4K, and Bitcoin is moving within a local range. It is expected to open the new week at approximately these levels.
⚫️ On the other hand, buyers are not very strong and cannot fully bounce upward from the trendline and the MA100.
❗️ The situation on the chart is not entirely clear; the price continues to move between the MA50 and MA100. However, staying in this range won't last long, and by tomorrow, there will be no room for movement. Buyers and sellers will have to make a decision.
Therefore, we are watching for a breakout and working from there. At the moment, I am more inclined towards an upward movement, but I acknowledge all the risks!
On CME, by the way, a gap was left in the range of $39,500 to $40,500. Most likely, we will only move higher after it is filled.
Above, there is another gap in the range of $45,000 to $48,000. This will be the next target for Bitcoin, and it would be desirable to achieve it already in January. A real bull market is ahead, just need to wait for it 📈
Bitcoin is once again around $43K, with the price fully bouncing off the ascending trendline and currently attempting to break above the 4-hour MA50 to continue its ascent to $45K and possibly beyond.
This movement followed yesterday's Federal Reserve meeting where Powell expressed readiness to begin rate cuts earlier than their main target of 2% inflation. However, for now, a rate cut is still on "pause," and there weren't expectations for a different outcome this year.
Despite attempts to break the trendline, sellers have not managed a full correction to the 61.8% Fibonacci level. Instead, they are following a more favorable scenario with a bounce off the trendline. Now, the key is to break the MA50 and reclaim a position above the Ichimoku Cloud. Ideally, surpassing $45K and establishing a new trading range would be even better.
Currently, the chart looks promising, and the medium-term upward trend seems to be holding.
She descended and is now at a crucial turning point in further movement — will there be a breakthrough of the ascending trendline? Quite possible.
Looking locally at Fibonacci levels, the recent move to 42K was aimed at correcting the fall, and the next downside target will be the -27% Fibonacci zone, around 39K. This is also where the more medium-term Fibonacci correction zone intersects. Everything is more or less evident.
Therefore, I am currently watching for a complete breakthrough of the trendline, preferably also the 4-hour MA100. If everything is confirmed, I expect a continuation of the downward movement to 39K, maximum to 38K. After that, I will assess the situation based on buyers' reactions around these levels.
Talking about the continuation of the upward trend is justified only if the price returns above the 4-hour Ichimoku Cloud or at least bounces up from the medium-term correction zone.
Regarding Bitcoin, everything looks good, we've cleared the lows, and now we're heading upwards. It's crucial to see a solid close above $42,500, and then we can comfortably expect a move towards $45,500. I want to emphasize that shorting is not a wise move since there are no clear short formations.
Altcoins, in general, appear quite strong, and many are ready to surge in the near future. Now that a correction has occurred, and if you're hesitant to buy, remember, there may not be a better time than now!