Retail data exceeded expectations, interest rate cuts are imminent, what are the key signals for a bull market?
Retail data exceeded expectations! The Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision at 2:00 a.m. Beijing time on Thursday, and Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will hold a press conference at 2:30 a.m.
Before the Fed's interest rate meeting, the last important economic data, the US retail sales data for August, is known as the horror data, because retail sales represent US consumption, and consumption accounts for 70% of US GDP. Once the retail sales data explodes, the Fed will definitely cut interest rates sharply.
But there was good news last night. Retail sales data increased by 0.1% month-on-month, which was better than the market's expectation of a 0.2% decline. Although it is still declining compared to last month's 1%, it is already a shot in the arm for the market.
Interest rate cuts are imminent, good news is coming, and a big bull market is coming? How to select 100-fold coins in the big bull market?
Now everyone is paying attention to the issue of the Federal Reserve's interest rate. Before the shoe drops, the market has different views. Affected by this, the US dollar is in a weak and downward rhythm. The Fed's upcoming interest rate decision, the performance of US economic data, and the evolution of the global geopolitical situation will all be key factors in determining the trend of Bitcoin prices in the future. From the news perspective, the current market environment is still relatively favorable to the currency circle, especially the rising expectations of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and some actions of global central banks, which make the currency price still have a good foundation for rising in the short-term fluctuations.
The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 50 basis points is close to 70%. Will there be a good opportunity for the market to bottom out?
The Federal Reserve will hold its September interest rate meeting this week. The market generally expects that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates for the first time since March 2020 this week, thus opening the curtain of the interest rate cut cycle. The focus of the debate now is how big the first interest rate cut will be? Will it be 25 basis points or 50 basis points? Through the trend of CME federal interest rate futures, we can observe the market's bets on the probability of the Fed's interest rate cut. Over the past weekend, the probability of betting on a 50 basis point rate cut climbed to 50%, and now it has further climbed to 63%, which has exceeded the probability of betting on a 25 basis point rate cut. A week ago, the probability of betting on a 50 basis point rate cut was only 30%.
The upward trend is clear, the negative impact of the 50BP interest rate cut on the market has collapsed, and a violent bull market is about to hit!
Today, gold broke through its all-time high, the three major U.S. stock indexes all opened higher and closed higher, and the cryptocurrency market also rose across the board. Everything is so abnormal. Why do all the US dollar assets seem to be stimulated and boosted?
This points to something very unusual, that is, overnight, the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates suddenly increased from 25 basis points to 50 basis points. Last night, the probability of a 50 basis point cut increased from less than 20% to 49% today. What happened overnight that made the Fed change its mind?
The probability of a 50BP rate cut increases, and Bitcoin immediately breaks through 60,000! Can the cryptocurrency world remain immune to this rate cut?
This week, the overall inflation rate CPI fell to 2.5%, close to the Fed's 2% target. As bets on a 50 basis point rate cut by the Fed next week rose, the Nasdaq index opened up 0.6%, and spot gold continued to rise on the basis of a nearly 2% surge overnight, hitting $2,580/ounce, setting a new record high. COMEX gold futures rose more than 1% during the day, standing above $2,600/ounce.
The Federal Reserve is expected to announce its first rate cut in four years after its meeting next week, with bets on a 50 basis point cut rising to 43% from 28% yesterday, and Bitcoin immediately broke through the 60,000 mark!
The Fed's rate cut expectations triggered market volatility: There were rumors in the market that the Fed might cut interest rates by 50 basis points, not just the 25 basis points that were widely expected before. Now the odds of a 25BP cut and a 50BP cut are evenly split.
Is Bitcoin accumulating strength? Once the resistance level is broken, it will rise straight up! Investors should be patient!
Market Analysis
The Bitcoin ecosystem has been really rich these days. After FB went online, various gameplays have emerged. Today, after dotswap launched the cat20 proxy platform, the gas on the FB network soared straight to 4500+. This shows everyone's enthusiasm for these innovations.
Bitcoin is in the accumulation stage. The previous two bottom tests have ended. At present, as long as the 4-hour level can effectively stand firm and break through 59,000, it will rise again and test the resistance position near 63,000.
The current price of FB in the dotswap v1 pool is around $36. Based on the total amount of 210 million, this FDV is already very high. Currently, everyone is fomoing FB because of the cat20. After cat20 ends, the price will drop sharply. Be sure to pay attention to the risks when you fomo.
The market continues to fluctuate. Will the market usher in a "Black Friday"? What should I choose to buy at the bottom?
Market Analysis
The price of Bitcoin has been going back and forth for four days. It can neither break through nor smash. From the first rush to 58,000 on Tuesday to today, it has been four times. Yesterday, the daily closing line was also a semi-yang upper pin state. It has been rushing to high points in the early morning for several consecutive days, and it feels powerless. Yesterday, there was a pullback of the upper lead, and it repeatedly rushed to above 58,000 in the early morning. Such a market has obvious signs of shipment. It is impossible to rush forward, and it is not so easy to fall. It is better to smash the market at 60,000 at once, which is more refreshing. Let’s see if today’s Friday market is a Black Friday. Generally speaking, today should close with a negative line trend, indicating Black Friday.
The interest rate cut is imminent, and the volatile market is about to end! CPI drives the market to reverse! The last chance to get on board! !
Market Analysis
Judging from the 15-minute candlestick chart of BTC, the current price is fluctuating around 58,000, and the market is still operating in an upward channel. The price has tested the pressure level of 58,200 many times recently, but has not been able to break through effectively. There is strong selling pressure at this position. The 56,200 below is the main support level in the short term. Every time it falls back to this area, the bulls have strong buying orders, indicating that the market remains optimistic for the time being. The current trading volume has not increased significantly, market sentiment tends to be cautious, and the game between long and short forces is fierce. If the trading volume cannot be further increased, the possibility of the price breaking through the upper pressure level is small, and it may test the support downward.
Harris and Trump's first presidential debate is over! What's next for the big pie?
Trump and Harris debate ends live on ABC News!
In this debate, neither side mentioned crypto finance! They were more concerned about health insurance, how to regulate U.S. economic inflation, social welfare and illegal immigration, and other issues.
As a candidate representing women, Harris has an inherent advantage on women's issues, which has affected the latest voting ratio. As of September 11, the current voting on Polymarket shows that Harris and Trump are tied at 49%, which once again results in stimulating competition!
The market lacks liquidity. Can tonight's CPI become a flame retardant to ignite the market? Is it a bull or a bear?
According to CME's "Fed Watch", the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September is 69%, which is basically a done deal, neither good nor bad, as expected. In addition, I watched the presidential debate, and Trump was at a disadvantage throughout the whole process, and did not mention cryptocurrency at all.
On Polymarket, Harris's chances of winning the debate just hit 92%.
Trump was anxious at the debate and was beaten by Harris. Regardless of their policy content, Harris won in terms of debate skills and logic.
CPI data affects the market, causing big fluctuations tonight!
At 8:30 pm, the U.S. August unadjusted CPI annual rate will be announced
Even if the market rebounds, but there are fewer positive news, can Bitcoin break through the pressure level and rise to the top?
The last data before the interest rate cut will be released on September 11. The seasonally adjusted CPI annual rate at the end of August was 2.9% before and 2.6% as expected. This expected value is very close to the Fed's target.
Therefore, considering the stable improvement of the current macro data and the conclusion of the Federal Reserve that the current economy is not in recession, we can be sure that the first 25 basis point rate cut will have the necessary benefits to the market, while if the first 50 basis point rate cut is implemented, the panic of economic recession will come again and the market will fall sharply.
Market Analysis
I think many people have started to be over-biased on this big rise last night. Let me make it clear to everyone that currently it is just a large-scale rebound while a small-scale rise. The market will reverse only if Bitcoin stands firmly above 6w, otherwise it is just a rebound.
The market surged violently along with the US stock market, but the follow-up momentum is insufficient? Will there be the best bargain hunting opportunity in September?
The last data before the rate cut will be released on Wednesday this week. The seasonally adjusted CPI annual rate for the end of August was 2.9% before and 2.6% as expected. This expected value is very close to the Fed's target. Therefore, based on the current stable improvement of macro data and the Fed's conclusion that the current economy is not in recession, we can be sure that the first 25 basis point rate cut will have the necessary benefits for the market. If the first 50 basis point rate cut is implemented, the panic of economic recession will come again and the economy will fall sharply.
Market Analysis
The market rose violently last night following the U.S. stock market, resulting in a liquidation of 120 million U.S. dollars in short positions in the past 24 hours. Yesterday we talked about a second test, and today it seems that the second test near 52,500 is effective, but judging from the volume and other indicators, it is still not that strong. We will continue to pay attention to it in the future.