Yesterday morning, I shared two possible trends—rising and falling. Many friends chose the downward direction after key points appeared, combined with my predictions, and achieved good profits. Of course, some pointed out that I painted two directions, which can be explained in any case. But in reality, attentive friends should have noticed that my judgments and insights regarding the key points for rising and falling are completely different.

The direction of the market is derived from continuous trial and error. Many people are afraid to enter the market because they lack a comprehensive risk control system; once the direction is wrong, it can lead to liquidation. However, even the best traders cannot predict the market with 100% accuracy; the only thing that can be controlled is the risk-reward ratio. For example, some people earn 300U with a risk of 100U, while others earn 400U with a risk of 200U. Although the results seem similar on the surface, the long-term risk-reward ratios for the two are entirely different. Only by maintaining a reasonable risk-reward ratio under strict stop-loss conditions can one remain undefeated in the long run of trading.

Teaching a person to fish is better than giving them fish. I always believe that what can truly help everyone is cultivating the ability to analyze and make decisions independently, rather than simply relying on my views. Friends who follow me all have the potential for independent thinking, and I very much look forward to a day when everyone can apply the knowledge and methods learned here to propose different insights, and even challenge my judgments in the comments section. Such discussions can benefit both parties and promote our mutual progress.

Yesterday, I looked at the trends of Ethereum five hours in advance and hit it almost accurately. Friends who followed my operations all profited. This is not luck, but insight into market logic. Today’s chart seems to lack clear signals, but smart people know that opportunities lie in ambiguity— the market always gives you two directional choices, and the true winners are those who can find profit positions whether the market rises or falls.

The logic of virtual currencies is not complex. Why does the price rise? Because it has dropped to a stop-loss point for bulls, and bears think they have the upper hand, only to be countered. Why does it fall? Because it has risen to a stop-loss point for bears, bulls start to retreat, and bears take over to continue the pressure. Those who are always stopped out often do so because they have listened too much to so-called "resistance levels" and "support levels," placing their stop-losses at obvious positions like previous highs or lows, becoming the prey of the market.

About Stop-Losses
• Do not let your stop-loss point become the market's "sweet spot." Obvious "key levels" are easily "harvested" by the market. Try setting a slightly further stop-loss based on volatility or ATR indicators to increase your margin for error.
• Every stop-loss is a lesson; reviewing is essential. Your goal is to move from being passively "harvested" to actively finding the market's "pain points."

Key to Profiting

Smart people do not get caught up in whether the market will rise or fall; they are more concerned with where the weaknesses of both bulls and bears lie.
• Locate areas with dense stop-losses: market pain points are opportunity points.
• Use technical analysis indicators like Bollinger Bands, MACD, or candlestick patterns to confirm reversal signals.
• Dynamic layout: Try to enter the market when it hesitates, rather than following the majority in chasing highs and lows.

In the end, the market is actually a zero-sum game. The profits you lose will always be consumed by others. Those who consistently enter precisely do not only watch charts but also observe the flow of emotions, psychology, and funds. "Your stop-loss point is my entry point"—this statement is not boastful but a market truth. Stand on the opposite side of the majority to understand how large funds use false breakouts and false breakdowns to layout their strategy, and take control of your own rhythm.

Almost coincides with the trend I drew 5 hours ago

Why does the market often start moving in the direction you expected only after your stop-loss has been triggered?

This is the next movement of Ethereum: first, a false short, creating panic, forcing funds to pour in rapidly at low levels; then, a quick surge, reaching the stop-loss zone of the bears, wiping out their positions completely. Immediately after, the market begins to pull back, pretending to adjust, constructing an illusion of a bullish trap, luring the bulls to a 'sure win' high point. Ultimately, an unexpected sharp drop occurs, completing a counterattack on the market, leaving chaos and shock in its wake.

The essence of the market is anti-human nature. You think you are conversing with the trend, but you are merely contributing to the fund pool for the manipulators. Break through the previous high, pull back to go long; break below the previous low, bounce back to go short; the stop-loss point lands precisely where 'common sense' tells you it should be, and all of this has long been calculated by the market with meticulous precision.

Most of the time, the market only moves in your expected direction after your stop-loss has been triggered. Why? Because your judgment aligns perfectly with the logic of countless retail investors. The aesthetics of the market lie in acting contrary to this consensus, achieving its intentions in ways that are unexpected.

Every line drawn by the manipulators, every range constructed, is an artistic layout. My prediction for Ethereum is merely an attempt to stand on the other side of this chess game, to see clearly the pre-set temptations and killing opportunities. The direction has never changed; the only thing that changes is who will become the victim in this game.

The big pancake will make another move, everyone can buy a little more at the current price, add to positions after it rises, and set the stop-loss at a higher point.

I can have one more hand.

If you want to wear the crown, you must bear its weight.
I believe that most people have nothing to do with this game. If they are forced to be pulled in, they can only analyze calmly and study seriously. For us, the only breakthrough in this game is to understand the rules as much as possible, find a path to long-term stable profits, and establish our own trading system. This is the foundation of everything and an urgent task.

Make arrangements when you are outside the game, and control your mind when you are in the game.
Do a good job of expectation management before opening an order. Reduce the number of times you watch the market, set reminders for several key points, and ignore it after taking profit. This is not luck, but a conclusion after repeated verification of past experience-operations that are in line with long-term interests are always restrained and rational. The core of trading is not to blindly pursue profits, but to stabilize yourself.

Risks are not terrible, but magnifying risks will magnify mistakes.
It is an iron rule to only take risks that you can bear. Although the impulse to gamble is not fatal, it is terrible that after the risk increases, the judgment will be severely weakened. The real fatal point is not the failure of the transaction, but the collapse of the mentality.

Investigate things to know, and then know wisdom.
Every game that seems to be against the objective, the final breakthrough idea lies in subjective self-adjustment. You can't control the rise and fall of the market, but you can control emotions and actions. The heart is the reason. The most difficult thing is not to see the objective clearly, but to recognize your own bias, correct the bias, and even use the bias when necessary.

Cultivate the mind to be quiet, and then be quiet.
The way of the saint is nothing more than self-sufficiency, without seeking outside. The same is true for trading. The most difficult thing to do is not to predict the market, but to keep yourself calm and determined at all times, and not to be shaken by short-term gains and losses. Only by correcting cognition can you stabilize your mentality; only by stabilizing your mentality can you stand firm in the storm.

This game has never been just a game of technology, it tests the limits of people and the limits of the heart.

In the zero-sum game of the currency circle, there is indeed an obvious rule: 20% of people make profits, and 80% of people lose money. However, this does not mean that those in the 80% have no room for survival. What is more important is how we view advantages and disadvantages and find our own position in the long-term competition.

A very great man in the last century told us in his "On Protracted War" that advantages and disadvantages are not immutable. The key lies in how to use advantages, overcome disadvantages, and achieve transformation through long-term efforts. Similarly, in the trading market, we need to calmly analyze our situation. For example, assuming that the loss of the entire market is 200 million, this is just an average, which means that 80% of the participants have lost an average of 200 million/80%. But among these 80%, there is also a relatively better group of people. Although they do not make an overall profit, they have less losses, or even break even. Disadvantages are not absolutely fatal, and advantages may also be gradually consumed in a protracted war.

This tells us that trading is not a quick victory, but a protracted war. In this battle, we must clearly identify which disadvantages are fatal - such as blind investment without a plan, and reckless advances without controlling risks; at the same time, we must be wary of factors that seem to be advantages but cannot be sustained - such as short-term lucky profits or over-reliance on emotional market fluctuations.

Ultimately, our goal is not to blindly pursue instantaneous victory or defeat, but to strive to gradually narrow the disadvantages and expand the advantages in the long-term game through calm analysis, continuous learning and rational operation. As long as you recognize the rules of this protracted war and are calmer and more tenacious than other participants, you will have the opportunity to achieve a real breakthrough and become a winner in the market.

2024.12.4 10:54am
The 96400 mentioned in the morning was not broken, and the price fell back quickly.
If it cannot reach 96000 before 2 pm.
It is likely to fall to 95000 later.
If the 95000 point can be broken, the small-band rise will also be broken. It is estimated that it will fall to around 93000 in the evening.
There are both negative and positive news recently, but the negative news is more fatal.

On-chain data shows that medium-term investors (investors who bought Bitcoin in the range of 55,000 to 70,000 US dollars) are actively taking profits, and the profit-taking sentiment is particularly strong when the Bitcoin trading price exceeds 90,000 US dollars.

In addition, the US has transferred about 2 billion US dollars worth of Bitcoin seized from the dark web "Silk Road" from the US government wallet to the Coinbase exchange.
When a large number of Bitcoins enter the market in batches or at the same time, the price tends to fall in waves or plummet.

It is now 2024.12.4, 8:45 AM.
The price of BTC is 95709.
A trade that could have been profitable last night has turned into this situation due to a phone call.
However, from an experiential perspective, treating each trade as independent is a reasonable approach. When outside the market, it is important to plan a specific strategy and execution plan. When in the market, it is difficult to have a clear judgment and analysis.
The pressure point is around 95633. From a small trend perspective, the market is moving upwards,
The pressure point above is around 966515. If this point breaks,
we could see around 98000 above.
Otherwise, the bottom point during the day is around 94700. $BTC