#比特币走势观察
Regarding ETFs, the U.S. stock market will be closed on January 1st. On December 31st, Bitcoin spot ETF saw a net inflow of $5.32 million, while Ethereum spot ETF had a net inflow of $35.93 million.

Venture capital firm Lightspeed released five major predictions for the Solana ecosystem in 2025, including: Elon Musk's X platform will launch a native token based on Solana, which can be used to pay for X Premium subscription fees; the market cap of Solana stablecoins will exceed $20 billion, growing fourfold from the current level; Solana ETF will be approved but may underperform compared to Ethereum ETF; Pumpfun will lose its position as the top platform for memecoin transaction fees; there will be no major outages in the Solana network in 2025. With the full launch of the Firedancer client approaching, Solana's throughput will significantly increase, but it may also introduce new risk factors.

Usual protocol experienced a large-scale USD0 sell-off today (UTC 07:00), triggered by a whale trade in the secondary market, raising doubts about the USD0 peg. USD0 briefly dropped to $0.99, then re-pegged to $1 within seconds, experiencing some basis deviation due to continuous selling, and fully re-pegged a few hours later.

In terms of market conditions, $BTC experienced a sharp rebound. After the New Year, funds that exited for various reasons will be replenished, so this short-term rebound trend may continue, with the upper resistance level around 100k. The key observation in the future market is still the rebound volume, which determines the strength of demand and its sustainability. I still do not believe Bitcoin can initiate a new upward trend; high-level fluctuations remain highly probable, and above 100k is still the profit-taking area for medium to long-term positions.

$ETH linkage, the exchange rate still needs to be tested, $SOL strengthened today, related to the replenishment of funds from the U.S. SOL has also adjusted quite thoroughly during this period, with resistance above 230.

#2025比特币价格预测 #反弹在即 $BTC $ETH
Regarding ETFs, on December 30, Bitcoin spot ETFs had a net outflow of $426 million, and Ethereum spot ETFs had a net outflow of $55.41 million.

Alliance DAO's review of 2024 and market forecast for 2025: Bitcoin's minimum is 150K and the maximum is 420K, which mainly depends on two points: one is the passage of the strategic Bitcoin reserve; the other is the macro environment of the market; if Trump comes to power in early 2025 and includes Bitcoin in the strategic reserve, it will be an extremely bullish signal; Solana's largest unlock will be in March 2025. After the unlocking pressure ends, Solana's performance may catch up with Bitcoin and Ethereum; some brand new market models may appear next year, such as market-driven decision-making mechanisms; AI, as one of the biggest trends, has shown great potential. I do not think that the minimum price of Bitcoin is 150,000 and the maximum price is 420,000. The peak price of Bitcoin in this bull market is unlikely to exceed 150,000.

QCP Capital Analysis pointed out that with the decline in volatility after the expiration of options at the end of the quarter, Bitcoin is currently consolidating at the bottom of the monthly range, and the monthly performance is basically flat. Throughout the fourth quarter, BTC rose 48% and ETH rose 30%. QCP is conservative about the market performance at the beginning of the new year. The market may still remain volatile in the short term, and it is expected to usher in a more active market from February. The flow of the options market also reflects similar expectations. Short-term volatility continues to decline, while the demand for call options in March has increased significantly.

In terms of market conditions, $BTC continues to test the support above 9w+. This position is not easy to break directly. The market supply is gradually exhausted, and the probability of an oversold rebound in the future market is high. The support near 9w is still strong, but even if the market rebounds in the future, it is likely to fluctuate in the high range. The probability of a direct new high breakthrough and a new upward trend is small. This range is likely to be 9w-10.5w.

ETH linkage

#退潮后的期待 $ETH
Regarding ETFs, regarding ETFs, last week the net outflow of Bitcoin spot ETFs was $387 million, while the net inflow of Ethereum spot ETFs was $349 million.

CK Zheng, Chief Investment Officer of crypto hedge fund ZX Squared Capital, expects a "significant" increase in inflows for Ethereum spot ETFs in 2025: "We anticipate that in 2025, when the new Trump administration releases more favorable rules and regulations to further promote the development of the digital asset category, inflows will increase significantly.

Regarding this prediction, and the recent performance of fund flows for Ethereum ETFs, which have begun to surpass Bitcoin, as the strong cycle for Ethereum approaches, the inflows for Ethereum ETFs will become increasingly healthy.

Tether CEO Paolo Ardoino retweeted a post from the co-founder of weRate and CEO of JAN3 on the X platform, which mentioned that there is currently a lot of 'FUD information' about USDT in the market, but the reality is that USDT will not be deemed illegal in Europe on December 30, 2024. The MiCA rules need to be followed, but stablecoin service providers have a transition period of 6-18 months, and some exchanges are waiting for clear information.

The stablecoin product USD0, launched by stablecoin developer Usual, has a market value exceeding $1.8 billion, ranking sixth among stablecoins; it has grown 26.8% in the past 7 days and 280% in the past month.

In terms of market conditions, there is a high probability of a short-term rebound for $BTC , and the market does not currently have the conditions for a significant drop. The selling pressure in the smaller scale movements is decreasing, and the probability of a rebound after a false breakdown in the future market is high. Today, with the opening of the US stock market, market liquidity will recover, and we will focus on observing the ETF fund flow performance after the US stock market opens, with a high probability of ETF fund inflows recovering this week. There is still support above 90k.

For $ETH linkage, a rebound requires volume, and 0.04 remains an important resistance level; until key points are broken, all will be seen as bottom testing.

#2025加密趋势预测
Regarding ETFs, on December 26, Bitcoin spot ETFs had a net inflow of $475 million, and Ethereum spot ETFs had a net inflow of $117 million.

Crypto market research firm Santiment posted on social media that after the general market decline on Christmas, there has been an encouraging trend in the cryptocurrency market - whales are transferring stablecoins to trading platforms. According to data from Santiment's CEX deposit dashboard, in the past 24 hours alone, 7 deposits worth at least $9 million were transferred to Binance, one of which was as high as $50 million (accounting for 2.33% of the entire supply)

In terms of market conditions, $BTC maintained a volatile trend, testing a small-level bottom, with strong support below around 92,000, and there are no conditions for a sharp drop in the short term. Before the end of the year, due to factors such as institutional financial reports, funds will leave the market or take risk-averse actions. It is normal for the market to weaken in the short term. Demand may recover in January next year, so be patient.

$ETH linkage, the exchange rate pair is still fluctuating and testing the bottom.

#2025加密趋势预测
Binance's Bitcoin reserve has dropped below 570,000, hitting a new low since January this year. Data shows that after a similar reserve level in January, Bitcoin's price rose by 90% in March. The amount of Bitcoin on CEX will continue to decrease, and in the long run, Bitcoin is a high-quality reserve asset.

In November, BTC and SOL trading volume reached an all-time high, while $ETH is still about 50% lower than the peak in 2021. Last month, the trading volumes of BTC, ETH, and $SOL were $2.2 trillion, $1.1 trillion, and $243 billion, respectively.

In terms of market conditions, $BTC is showing a volatile trend; after the U.S. stock market opens today, both volatility and trading volume will increase, revealing the true supply and demand situation. On a smaller scale, it shows a high-level fluctuating trend, with a double bottom basically confirmed, but the trend after the U.S. stock market opens today is very important. The trading volume has been low in the past two days, making it difficult to judge the strength of demand. There is some pressure above 100,000, with support above 92,000, indicating a high probability of a fluctuating trend.

ETH linkage, the ETH/BTC exchange rate still needs to be tested, and ETH has not yet shown clear signs of capital inflow.

#“圣诞老人行情”再现
Regarding ETFs, in the past 4 trading days, funds from the US spot BTC ETF have continued to flow out, reaching $1.51 billion. During this period, the largest outflow was from FBTC, totaling $510 million; followed by ARKB, which saw an inflow of $286 million.

K33 Research Director Vetle Lunde stated that based on data from the past three cycles, the average duration for Bitcoin from its first all-time high to its last all-time high in each cycle is 318 days. Since Bitcoin reached its first all-time high in the current cycle on March 5, if the average duration of previous cycles is repeated, investors might see Bitcoin reach a new high for this cycle on January 17, 2025.

On-chain, there has been a large short-term influx of Bitcoin into exchanges, which will exert selling pressure on the market, while USDT has recently continued to flow out of exchanges, indicating insufficient short-term demand in the market.

In terms of market trends, Bitcoin's low-volume rebound is not a healthy trend, as overall market demand is insufficient. The future market should observe volume conditions; if low volume continues, maintaining the rebound trend will be difficult. Today, US markets are closed, resulting in minimal market fluctuations; the true supply and demand situation will only be revealed once the US markets reopen. It is still recommended to take profits gradually after a rebound.
$BTC $ETH $BNB

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Regarding ETFs, last week saw a net inflow of $449 million in spot ETFs with a total of $16,658,774,972, and a net inflow of $62.73 million in spot ETFs with a total of $55,792,218,752.

The total amount staked on the Beacon Chain has reached 34,213,997 ETH, with staked ETH accounting for 27.9% of the total supply. Among this, the liquid staking protocol Lido holds a staking share of 28.36%. Additionally, since the Shanghai upgrade, there has been a net inflow of 16,047,943 ETH.

On-chain, the distribution by long-term holders has exceeded the levels seen in March of this year, and it is highly probable that long-term holders will continue to distribute in the future, which could lead to a turning point in the market between bull and bear trends.

In terms of market conditions, BTC is testing a small level again; if this level holds, it could lead to larger movements. In the short term, there are no conditions for a significant drop, and the probability of a rebound this week is high. There remains significant pressure above $100,000, and the likelihood of BTC reaching a new high and starting a rally is low, with a high probability of consolidation in the short term. The market movements after the U.S. stock market opens tonight will be crucial, as they can indicate the flow of ETF funds, which significantly influences BTC's short-term trend. If there is a noticeable outflow of funds from ETFs, the probability of the market continuing to weaken will increase, and if the situation worsens, it may look for support around $80,000.

ETH is correlated, and the exchange rate still does not clarify the bottom, but there is a possibility that funds will flow from BTC to ETH in the future, so patience is required.

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#比特币市场波动观察 #The market continues to adjust, hoping for January
Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer of Bitwise Asset Management, pointed out three "unstoppable" sources of demand for Bitcoin: ETFs, Microstrategy, and the government itself possibly becoming a Bitcoin buyer. He added, "Ultimately, it comes down to supply and demand. Too much demand, not enough supply, so I think the price will be higher in 2025." However, I believe that even with increased demand, it cannot match the supply flowing into the market from existing large holders and long-term holders, as the inherent bull-bear cycle of Bitcoin still exists.

In the 2013 cycle, after 6 weeks of price discovery, $BTC experienced its first major adjustment in the 7th week.

In the 2017 cycle, after 7 weeks of price discovery, a -34% major pullback occurred in the 8th week.

In the 2020/2021 cycle, $BTC rebounded for 6 weeks during the price discovery phase, then saw its first meaningful pullback of -16%.

Now it is the 7th week, it's amazing, we experienced the same 30% drop in the same week as four years ago.

24727755748#ETH
Regarding ETFs, on December 19, Bitcoin spot ETF had a net outflow of $680 million, while Ethereum spot ETF had a net outflow of $60.47 million.

According to coinglass data, in the last 24 hours, the total liquidation across the network was $854 million, with long positions liquidating at $725 million and short positions at $128 million, affecting a total of 284,500 people. The largest single liquidation occurred on Binance - ETHUSDT valued at $7.1005 million.

Grayscale announced that it has opened the Grayscale SUI Trust to qualified investors, allowing investors to gain exposure of $19,695,882,117 in the form of securities. As of December 18, the net asset value per share of Grayscale SUI Trust was $65.52, with managed assets of $12,875,640.

In terms of market trends, 52,630,324,128 has been continuously declining, reaching the first support level, and the probability of breaking below this level and experiencing another significant drop is low. The probability of a rebound due to overselling at this support level is high, indicating a short-term demand for a market rebound. The large outflow of ETF funds may exert selling pressure on the market to some extent. Previous analyses mentioned that Bitcoin would encounter resistance and adjust, and the current pattern does not support Bitcoin reaching new highs and continuing to rise. Even if there is a rebound due to overselling, it is difficult to achieve significant upward movement all at once, so it is still recommended to implement a profit-taking plan. Strong support is near 87,000.

78,361,378,728 linkage, the exchange rate pattern is unfavorable, and the market has significant selling pressure, with support for the exchange rate near 0.033.

56,866,637,325
87,584,167,958
08,084,737,554

#美联储放鹰 #加密市场回调 #加密市场回调
Regarding ETFs, on December 18, the spot ETF net inflow was $275 million for $BTC , and $2.45 million for $ETH .

The Federal Reserve's December interest rate meeting passed the decision to cut rates by 25 basis points with a vote of 11:1, but the statement hinted at a slower pace of rate cuts; the dot plot shows that the forecast for rate cuts next year has changed from 4 adjustments to 2; Powell stated that future considerations for rate adjustments can be more cautious, and the path depends on achieving more progress in reducing inflation. It may take another year or two to reach the inflation target. Rate hikes are unlikely next year.

This rate decision exceeded expectations for a hawkish stance, causing a huge shock in global capital markets. The US dollar index surged against the trend, gold fell sharply, the Nasdaq dropped by 3.56%, and the S&P 500 fell by 2.95%, with a clear increase in risk-averse sentiment.

Powell clearly stated that the Federal Reserve does not favor Bitcoin and does not wish to hold it as a strategic reserve. He emphasized that while Congress could modify the law to allow the Federal Reserve to hold Bitcoin, that is not the direction he hopes to see.

In an ideal scenario, BTC could rebound to around 103,000, while ETH could reach around 3,800. The current weakness of ETH has exceeded expectations; it not only adjusted with BTC but even lagged behind BTC's exchange rate. It truly missed the rise and has fallen more sharply, but due to relatively small profit-taking, the rebound momentum in the future may be greater than that of BTC.

Long-term ETH holders have shown confidence this year and are still continuously increasing their positions. Currently, about 110 million ETH are held by long-term holders.

#加密市场盘整 $ETH
Regarding ETF, on December 17, Bitcoin spot ETF had a net inflow of $493 million, and Ethereum spot ETF had a net inflow of $144 million.

At 3 a.m. on Thursday, the Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision, and the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is basically 100%

In terms of market conditions, $BTC was adjusted as expected, and the rise was weak. This position needs to be adjusted in the short term. From the perspective of form, it is not possible to judge that the currency price has reached the top of this round of bull market. This needs to be confirmed in the future market. Bitcoin has reached such a large market value stage, and the top will definitely be a region, which will last for a certain period of time. It will no longer go to the accelerated top like 17-18, but will go to the range top similar to 20-21, which is relatively long-term sideways. Only when the horizontal structure is large enough, the main force will be more convenient to ship. For action, it is still recommended to stop profit by position.

$ETH linkage, funds have not been cut in on a large scale, and it takes time and hype opportunities, patience.

#The Bull Market Continues, Hold Calmly
Regarding ETFs, on December 16th, $BTC spot ETF had a net inflow of $636 million, while $ETH spot ETF had a net inflow of $51.13 million.

MicroStrategy increased its holdings by approximately $1.5 billion, acquiring 15,350 BTC at an average purchase price of $100,386. The BTC return so far this quarter is 46.4%, and the year-to-date BTC return is 72.4%. As of December 15, 2024, MicroStrategy holds 439,000 BTC, with an average acquisition price of $61,725, totaling a cost of approximately $27.1 billion.

Customers affected by the FTX bankruptcy will be able to receive bankruptcy distributions through Kraken and BitGo, with the plan set to take effect on January 3, 2025. FTX stated in a press release on Monday that the “initial distribution” is expected to occur within 60 days following the effective date.

Santiment reported that there are currently 104 whale wallets holding at least 100,000 ETH, accounting for 57.35% of the existing ETH, reaching an all-time high, currently valued at approximately $333.1 billion. Meanwhile, the supply ratio of wallets holding between 100 and 100,000 ETH is at a historical low of 33.46%. The supply ratio of wallets holding less than 100 ETH is nearing a four-year low at 9.19%.
ETH wallets are increasingly composed of DeFi and staking wallets, and when a prominent stakeholder of a token continues to accumulate, this often remains a bullish long-term signal, especially when it is an asset that has been around for nine years, and the proportion of tokens held by whales also reaches a historical high.

According to calculations by CryptoQuant analysts, if the current supply and demand dynamics of Ethereum persist, the cryptocurrency could reach a historical high of over $5,000 next year.

BTC and ETH are correlated, and the exchange rate continues to test the right-side support. If we consider that the bottom of the pattern has already appeared, then the exchange rate will likely rebound and break through the 0.04 resistance level.

According to Messari's 2025 Crypto Theses report, Solana may see another strong year. It noted that the Solana ecosystem raised $173 million in the third quarter of 2024, a high since the second quarter of 2022. Additionally, the spot ETF $SOL seems imminent. The regulatory environment will become more relaxed, potentially driving explosive growth fueled by institutional interest.

#加密市场狂欢 #ETH再度冲击4K
Today's historical new high is very exciting on the surface, but in reality, the rise is rather weak. From the premium on Coinbase, this morning's surge directly flattened the premium, which means it wasn't driven up by real buying, but rather by contract liquidations and long positions accumulation that achieved this new high.

When funds are active, small coins won't perform poorly over the weekend, but last weekend there was clearly no profit effect, leaving only Bitcoin struggling to support itself. Bitcoin's support comes from the anticipated overflow effect as Microstrategy is added to the Nasdaq 100 on Monday, and ETFs are expected to continue inflowing. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve is likely to complete its December rate cut next week (the probability is nearing 100%), so it is still possible to see another surge before a real pullback, but the height is not worth expecting.

At the same time, the lack of a widespread wealth effect in altcoins indicates that demand in the market is rapidly drying up, and liquidity is starting to tighten. Looking at the long positions in contracts, a large number of long positions have accumulated above 100,000, which is definitely fuel for shorts, so it will be very difficult to continue pushing higher in the short term, unless there is a massive buying spree when the US stock market opens tomorrow, which is a rare sight before Christmas.

As for whether small projects can rise together, we may need to pay attention to whether the big liquidity holders $XRP and $DOGE can create a new high to release liquidity in the short term, or whether $ETH can also elevate liquidity.

There is still some time until the next risk release, but we have basically entered a stage of licking blood on the knife's edge, looking for good targets, and doing short trades with stop-loss is the way to go.

#BTC重回关键位置后走势 $ETH $SOL
I found some interesting market patterns from the chart to share with everyone.

If the 5-day level closing price no longer falls below the upper line of the speed resistance line, manifested as the 5-day closing price being above the speed resistance line, and the CCI parameter closing not lower than 100, the market is likely to enter a second wave of trend. Based on the cycle, there is a high probability that $BTC will peak in late January 2025.

If the 5-day CCI parameter breaks below 100, this round of trend is declared over. When this market signal appears, we need to liquidate our positions. Although this probability is relatively low, once this situation occurs, making a timely strategy can help us avoid greater losses.

#Waiting for Opportunities in a Bull Market#BTC
Market fluctuations are minor, the trend of $BTC is as expected, the upward movement has not produced significant volume, so we cannot yet determine the current level of real demand. It is very normal for the price to encounter resistance after facing supply when it rises again. If Bitcoin rises again in the future, the probability of a false breakout remains high, and it is difficult for this position to trigger a new upward trend all at once. The exchange rate of $ETH /$BTC is still encountering resistance around 0.04, and it is now likely that the exchange rate has bottomed out. Altcoin correlation, in the future, capital will still return to the altcoin market, so patience in holding positions is advised.

It has been ranging between 0.5 and 0.6 these days.

#BTC重回关键位置后走势 #USUAL现货即将上线

According to monitoring by Onchain Lens, Tether has minted an additional $1 billion USDT on the Ethereum network. This month, Tether's total minted USDT has reached $4 billion. The total market cap of stablecoins is close to $202 billion, currently at $201.885 billion, setting a new historical high.

a16z policy director Brian Quintenz has become the top candidate for the chair of the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), and he has already been interviewed for the position. If he is elected, it would be a significant positive for the crypto space, as both the SEC chair and CFTC chair are pro-cryptocurrency, which would provide strong policy support for cryptocurrencies.

Regarding recent market attention on quantum computer chips Willow and the freezing of Satoshi's private keys, SlowMist founder Yu Xian quoted crypto researcher Jeffrey Scholz's tweet stating: "The dozens of quantum gates currently available are still millions away from being able to crack Bitcoin private keys. Increasing these quantum gates is not easy, and the noise and error rates will also increase, ultimately resulting in a machine that is quickly rendered useless in the real world… Let's worry about Satoshi's private keys in a few decades."

In terms of market performance, Bitcoin has rebounded as expected, and there are no issues with the movement; however, the rebound volume yesterday was relatively low, indicating that overall market demand has weakened. From the movement perspective, Bitcoin still has expectations for new highs, but this type of movement, even if the price reaches new highs, is unlikely to initiate a new uptrend immediately, as the probability of a false breakout is high. Therefore, it is still recommended to take profits gradually; market risks are accumulating, and I do not believe $BTC will see significant gains again.

$ETH linkage, the exchange rate seems to have effective support on the right side, and there is potential for continued rebound in the future. 0.04 remains a short-term resistance level, but this time the increase after the adjustment may break through.

$USUAL December 15 Airdrop
$USUAL , as a decentralized stablecoin protocol, may have its token USUAL's price influenced by the demand and usage of its stablecoin USD0. Currently, USD0 is popular in the market and is widely accepted and used.
Recently, USD0's market performance has been relatively stable. Although there is some price volatility, the overall trend is positive, with increased trading volume, market capitalization, and market attention. This indicates that USD0's position and influence in the market are gradually strengthening, and it is expected to maintain a good development momentum in the future.

$USUAL plans to conduct an airdrop on December 15, which may cause short-term price fluctuations.

So, are you ready?

#市场调整后的方向 #BTC Adjustment Finished?
On December 10, Bitcoin spot ETF saw a net inflow of $439 million, while Ethereum spot ETF had a net inflow of $305 million.

Microstrategy continues to buy in large amounts, and Wall Street's ETF holdings have surpassed Satoshi Nakamoto. Many countries will also make strategic reserves in the future, and they are all allocating now. Some say it is unsafe due to quantum technology; are these super funds not smart enough? Just focus on these big players, and follow the most authoritative and intelligent people to navigate the world, and the pitfalls ahead won't be too big.

Last night, the much-anticipated Microsoft shareholder vote on whether to invest in Bitcoin yielded results: shareholders opposed the proposal to invest in Bitcoin, believing it is not in the long-term interest of shareholders. A potential positive has not materialized, but there are still two relatively significant positives that will drive the market in the short term: 1. Trump takes office, and the new SEC chairman takes office; 2. FTX investor compensation.
Nate Geraci, president of The ETF Store, posted on X that BlackRock's ETHA has seen net inflows for 8 consecutive days, totaling over $1 billion, ranking fourth among about 675 ETFs set to launch in 2024. Additionally, Nate speculated that BlackRock's ETHA will enter the top three.
$ETH linked to $BTC , the exchange rate confirms the right-side pullback. Let’s see if this right-side structure can be formed. If it can provide effective support, the previous bottom formation will emerge, indicating there is still demand for a price correction in the future.

#加密市场回调 #市场回调抄底还是观望？
QCP Capital Analysis points out that the key price points for ETH and BTC are $4000 and $100,000 respectively. After briefly breaking these levels last week, both have pulled back. Currently, the options expiring on December 27, 2024, have the highest open interest at the strike prices of $4000 for ETH and $100,000 for BTC, with 90,000 and 16,000 contracts respectively. Although rising spot prices may prompt traders to cover positions, the current funding rates are stable, and the likelihood of significant volatility in the short term is low.

QCP believes that the spot market may primarily oscillate during the holiday period, and that the $ETH usually reaches new highs only in January following a halving. The options market also reflects this sentiment, with the $ETH risk reversal structure showing that bullish sentiment is more concentrated after January next year. I also believe that significant recovery for ETH will occur after January, with a strong rise likely to last for 1-2 months.

Yesterday, the leverage clean-up for $ETH was more thorough than for BTC, with the exchange rate pressure level still at 0.04. This pressure level is likely to be surpassed, and ETH's recovery will come, so be patient.

In the altcoin sector, the altcoin market has undergone a significant adjustment. This adjustment is healthy, shaking off the bugs, and future price increases will be easier. Many altcoins have adjusted, which actually presents buying opportunities. Look for structural support and accumulate position by position. When others are panicking, do you know what to do?