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Market analysis from 9th to 13th
The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates next week reaches 79%
BTC breaks through the 65,000 mark?
What major impact does the Fed's interest rate hike or cut have on the crypto circle? Since cryptocurrencies are all denominated in US dollars, the Fed's interest rate hike or cut will directly affect the value of the US dollar. Interest rate hikes usually increase the value of the US dollar, thereby increasing the purchase cost of cryptocurrencies and having a negative impact on their prices. Interest rate cuts may cause the US dollar to depreciate, thereby reducing the purchase cost of cryptocurrencies and having a positive impact on them. Therefore, the greater the probability of interest rate cuts, the more favorable it is for cryptocurrencies. Of course, there are many factors that affect the price trend of cryptocurrencies. The focus is on these two: the first news aspect and the second technical aspect. I will look at the technical aspect next. Technical analysis of BTC: The closing of the monthly line of the big cake in August was not very beautiful, so it fluctuated downward all the way in September, falling all the way to around 53,000. After the weekly line closed, there was a rebound, but there was no sign of stabilization. After the golden cross of the daily line, it rebounded to the middle track of the Bollinger band near 59,000. It takes a lot of courage to break through, or it needs a wave of news stimulation. If the interest rate cut is successful next week, the probability of rushing to 65,000 is very high. Let's wait and see. Technical analysis of ETH: Ethereum is relatively weak compared to big cake. After closing the monthly line in early September, it has been hovering around the middle track of the monthly line. The oscillation range is 2300-2400, which is a hundred points up and down. Although there are rebounds on the weekly and daily lines, they have not even touched the middle track of the daily line. The main reason is that major institutions and big investors do not listen to the sell-off, and they are leaving the market at a loss. I have analyzed before that there may be major accidents that are unknown to the public. Institutions are very sensitive.
The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates next week reaches 79%
BTC breaks through the 65,000 mark?
What major impact does the Fed's interest rate hike or cut have on the crypto circle? Since cryptocurrencies are all denominated in US dollars, the Fed's interest rate hike or cut will directly affect the value of the US dollar. Interest rate hikes usually increase the value of the US dollar, thereby increasing the purchase cost of cryptocurrencies and having a negative impact on their prices. Interest rate cuts may cause the US dollar to depreciate, thereby reducing the purchase cost of cryptocurrencies and having a positive impact on them. Therefore, the greater the probability of interest rate cuts, the more favorable it is for cryptocurrencies. Of course, there are many factors that affect the price trend of cryptocurrencies. The focus is on these two: the first news aspect and the second technical aspect. I will look at the technical aspect next. Technical analysis of BTC: The closing of the monthly line of the big cake in August was not very beautiful, so it fluctuated downward all the way in September, falling all the way to around 53,000. After the weekly line closed, there was a rebound, but there was no sign of stabilization. After the golden cross of the daily line, it rebounded to the middle track of the Bollinger band near 59,000. It takes a lot of courage to break through, or it needs a wave of news stimulation. If the interest rate cut is successful next week, the probability of rushing to 65,000 is very high. Let's wait and see. Technical analysis of ETH: Ethereum is relatively weak compared to big cake. After closing the monthly line in early September, it has been hovering around the middle track of the monthly line. The oscillation range is 2300-2400, which is a hundred points up and down. Although there are rebounds on the weekly and daily lines, they have not even touched the middle track of the daily line. The main reason is that major institutions and big investors do not listen to the sell-off, and they are leaving the market at a loss. I have analyzed before that there may be major accidents that are unknown to the public. Institutions are very sensitive.
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Some time ago, the Americans dumped 29,000 stocks, notifying everyone that the black swan is coming, and asked everyone to arrange to short 3400 Madam and 70,000 stocks. Currently, the decline is nearly 10,000 points, and the opportunity to buy the bottom is coming. Everyone should continue to pay attention! #美国政府转移BTC #比特币大会 #美联储何时降息？
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Analysis of ETH 4-hour line on July 14
With the formation of double bottom of 4-hour line, the bottom is around 2800, and the neckline is broken. At present, the 4-hour line is still bullish, and the highest can be seen around 3350. If it falls back to the support, it can be bought at a low price. In the second half of the year, there is no need for long orders. The big bull will be after the National Day. #美国6月CPI大幅降温 #ETH🔥🔥🔥🔥
With the formation of double bottom of 4-hour line, the bottom is around 2800, and the neckline is broken. At present, the 4-hour line is still bullish, and the highest can be seen around 3350. If it falls back to the support, it can be bought at a low price. In the second half of the year, there is no need for long orders. The big bull will be after the National Day. #美国6月CPI大幅降温 #ETH🔥🔥🔥🔥
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ETH weekly analysis from July 7 to 13
With the formation of a double top on the weekly chart, the bears have been killing all the way down to around 2800. 4000 is currently a high point that is out of our reach. The weekly chart is still bullish at present, and the highest can be seen around 3350. If it falls below 2800, it will be around 2600. In the second half of the year, long orders should not be blindly recharged. Those with multiple orders should be prepared to flee at any time. #ETH🔥🔥🔥🔥 #美国6月CPI大幅降温
With the formation of a double top on the weekly chart, the bears have been killing all the way down to around 2800. 4000 is currently a high point that is out of our reach. The weekly chart is still bullish at present, and the highest can be seen around 3350. If it falls below 2800, it will be around 2600. In the second half of the year, long orders should not be blindly recharged. Those with multiple orders should be prepared to flee at any time. #ETH🔥🔥🔥🔥 #美国6月CPI大幅降温
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BTC daily analysis from July 13
With the formation of the double top of the daily line, the shorts have been falling all the way to around 53,000. 73,000 is currently a high point that is out of our reach. The daily line is still in a bearish trend, but there is an opportunity for an oversold rebound, and the highest can be seen around 64,000. Those who have multiple orders should be prepared to flee at any time. #BTC下跌分析 #德国政府转移比特币
With the formation of the double top of the daily line, the shorts have been falling all the way to around 53,000. 73,000 is currently a high point that is out of our reach. The daily line is still in a bearish trend, but there is an opportunity for an oversold rebound, and the highest can be seen around 64,000. Those who have multiple orders should be prepared to flee at any time. #BTC下跌分析 #德国政府转移比特币
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Token2049
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The Fed meeting is today, ,
At the moment, the expectations are as follows:
⚫ ~64% - the rate will be reduced by 0.50%.
⚫ ~36% — the rate will be reduced by 0.25%.
Unexpectedly, the market expects a 0.50% decline, which is not fully priced in. Therefore, such a move by the Fed could trigger a short-term rise in the market. But 0.25%, given market expectations, could, on the contrary, lead to a short-term decline.
At the same time, former head of BitMEX Arthur Hayes said from the stage of Token2049 that the Fed will collapse the market by lowering the key interest rate.
What are your expectations?
The rate will be reduced by 0.25% —🔥
The rate will be reduced by 0.50% — 👍
Pause / raise —😱
#FOMC #BinanceLaunchpoolHMSTR #Token2049 #NeiroOnBinance #USRetailSalesRise
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