Will there be another black swan-style crash? Many people are expecting that with the continued high interest rates of the Federal Reserve, there will be an economic and financial black swan event, which will trigger a big crash in the cryptocurrency circle. From a historical perspective, this is indeed the case: the US subprime mortgage crisis, the Southeast Asian financial crisis, and the Internet bubble in the past two decades are all living examples. Many crises also broke out in the year or so when the Federal Reserve's interest rates continued to rise. This time, after the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points to 5.5 on July 27 last year, it has remained at a high point of 5.5 for 10 months, and no similar financial crisis has occurred so far. An important purpose of the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike is to complete the harvest of the world. How can it harvest without a crisis? The reasons for not lowering interest rates, such as the rebound in the US CPI and the strong non-agricultural data, are all pretexts. In the final analysis, the United States printed 20 trillion US dollars during the epidemic, which is the sum of the past 20 years; although the inflation has been passed on to the world through the status of the US dollar as a global currency. However, if so many US dollars do not complete the asset harvest and make the extra US dollars have value support, then the US dollar system will collapse. Therefore, the probability of a black swan event of a financial crisis in the real economy is very high. This can "force" the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, and the dollar will flow out to harvest the crisis-ridden economies, completing the closed loop of interest rate hikes and cuts. The world has liquidity, and the cryptocurrency market has a bull market, because in the final analysis, the cryptocurrency market is still a product of sufficient liquidity. Having said so much, in fact, there is only one sentence to say, stay patient. This is the dark forest of the cryptocurrency circle: if you lose your patience and move around, you will be the prey to be eaten, and only by staying patient can you become the hunter who eats the meat.
The current market is just a few random fluctuations within the Bitcoin range, and now those who chase the rise and fall are retail investors, and the main players have not participated at all; This market is volatile 80% of the time, and it is soaring and plummeting 20% of the time; the former belongs to retail investors, and the latter belongs to the main players. Retail investors spend 80% of their time trading, and 20% of their time chasing the rise and fall and cutting themselves; the main players spend 80% of their time enjoying life, and 20% of their time laying out and cutting leeks. So only 20% make money, and 80% lose money. If you want to be one of the 20% who make money, then reduce the number of transactions, eat well, sleep well, and wait patiently. The bull market is not achieved overnight. Don't be upset about missing out on a hundred-fold or ten-thousand-fold project and impulsively go all-in. There are opportunities everywhere in the currency circle. Living long is the most important thing. If you seize it once, you can turn over a new leaf.
Before the bull market comes We have to keep a close eye on it, and it is estimated that the market will have to make a big adjustment. This is the last good time to get on board. If you miss it, you will have to wait for the next boom period. In the next round of adjustments, those potential currencies should be bought as soon as possible. 1. SOL, keep an eye on the price of 115 to 120 US dollars; 2. TAO, pay attention to the range of 315 to 330 US dollars; 3. WIF, focus on the range of 1.8 to 2.2 US dollars; 4. PEPE, don’t miss the stall of 0.000004 to 0.000005 US dollars; 5. ORDI, lock in the range of 25 to 30 US dollars; 6. RNDR, seize the opportunity of 6 to 6.5 US dollars.
In the future, some currencies will still give us the opportunity to pick up leaks. In the middle and late stages of the bull market, Bitcoin will no longer be a wealth-making machine. At that time, new funds will flow to various altcoins. At that time, it will be the time for altcoins to shine!
Coins that can be bought AR, market value of 2 billion, after the AO supercomputer is officially launched, the target price is above 50, and a 20% position is recommended
Chr, market value of 300 million, easy to double, recommended to buy 10% for long-term, need to wait a little longer
WLD, AI concept, easy to rise due to popularity, 10% position
Chz, European Cup concept, recommended 10% position
Will Bitcoin reach 40,000? The 7-day winning streak ends, and the Federal Reserve has 5 more interest rate meetings. The bull market is always clear! The May financial calendar of the cryptocurrency circle is freshly released
In April, Bitcoin officially completed its fourth halving, but it plummeted by 15%, closing with a large negative line that was almost bald at the beginning and the end, ending the record-breaking 7-month monthly rise. Almost all altcoins were cut in half, or even doubled. Judging from the comments of coin friends under the tweets I posted a few days ago, many people have already said that the price will reach 30,000 or 10,000, or even that the bull market has turned to bear market. The continuous fluctuation and decline for one and a half months has scared many people. Many friends also asked me privately whether they should sell their stocks. It seems that the dealer’s goal is about to be achieved. If there is another wave of spikes, many retail investors will probably have to hand over their chips.
Long-term holding requires a good target selection. In the currency circle, selection is more important than effort.
ARB has 1.4 billion USD in circulation and 10 billion USD in non-circulation OP has 1.3 billion USD in circulation and 6 billion USD in non-circulation APT has 1.8 billion USD in circulation and 6 billion USD in non-circulation SUI has 500 million USD in circulation and 510 million USD in non-circulation (assuming full circulation in three years) Suppose, you bought 1 million USD of ARB, the market value of ARB remains unchanged, and you hold it for a long time. After three years, the full circulation is still 1.4 billion USD. The 1 million USD of ARB in your hand will be diluted to 100,000 USD, a 90% reduction Suppose, the market value of ARB has been growing, and it has been fully circulated for 3 years. The market value has increased 10 times, and the 1 million USD of ARB you bought is still 1 million USD. Suppose the market value of arb has been shrinking, and it has been fully circulated for three years but the market value has shrunk by half. If you bought arb worth 1 million US dollars and it became 50,000 US dollars, a 95% decrease, then if you want to hold it for a long time and make money, arb must be more powerful than the second case, with a crazy market value growth of 20 times, and it took you three years to turn 1 million US dollars into 2 million US dollars. But from a purely probabilistic point of view, the probability of any situation will be higher than the fourth one, that is, the probability of making money in three years is less than 25%, and the probability of losing money is greater than 75%, and the profit and loss ratio is 1/4, which is very bad. What's the point of holding this kind of coin? Short-term speculation is OK, but long-term holding is really stupid. This is for all low-circulation, high-proportion uncirculated tokens.
Summary: This type of coin is only suitable for short-term speculation, and it is absolutely not suitable for long-term holding.
How much do you know about the top ten insider information in the cryptocurrency circle?
1. You think the success rate of playing contracts is 50%, but in fact the probability of making money is less than 5%.
2. When you hear that something is very profitable, it is basically time to take over.
3. When you think the market is over and everything is going to return to zero, the bull market is often coming soon.
4. When you are more and more certain that a coin is going to soar, it is often the time for the dealer to collect the vegetables.
5. You think that money in the cryptocurrency circle is easy to make, but in fact it is easier to lose.
6. You think kol is very profitable, but in fact, kol who does not cut leeks, cheat people, or issue coins may not have as high income as you, of course, except me.
7. You think that local dogs have the opportunity to double 100 times, but in fact the return rate of local dogs is 99%
8. You think that the dealer is your enemy and you want to defeat him, but in fact the dealer is our thigh, and we can only drink soup by holding him tightly.
9. You think that the cryptocurrency circle should be valued, but in fact all coins have no value, and the value is generated by human greed.
10. You think getting rich in the cryptocurrency world depends on hard work, but in fact it depends entirely on luck. If you agree, please like, comment, and forward #币圈[超话]##投资[超话]#香港加密货币ETF #美联储
Good news! The bull market begins in May. Which currencies are about to soar?
The market has been trading sideways recently, and many people are wondering whether the bull market will continue.
The answer can be obtained just from the increase in holdings of Grayscale Trust. From 2021 to 2023, Grayscale never increased its holdings of any token, but since the beginning of this year, it has been increasing its holdings of SOL, BCH, LTC, MANA, LINK, FIL and other coins, indicating that it is quite optimistic about the future market.
The interest rate cut is expected in the second half of the year. Although the Fed has released a signal that it will raise interest rates, a rate cut is inevitable anyway. It is just a matter of time. In this case, there is nothing to worry about. It is just a matter of time. A rate cut is inevitable, so it is also inevitable that there will be a big bull market in the future.
If you want to make money, don't gamble with 20,000, and make money with a normal mind. For example, buy 30,000, and wait to sell 300,000. Isn't it enough to make 10 times the profit? You can't chew more than you can chew. 2024 is a great year for novices to buy coins. When you look back in 2026, will you thank David for your advice? Just ask anyone with experience in the currency circle and they will tell you that there is no market that only rises and never falls, and it can be accompanied by a large-scale correction at any time. You have to treat the rise and fall with a normal mind, and add positions when it falls. You have to be responsible for yourself, and the most important thing you should do is to reduce risks. At present, you can only reduce your positions, and all other operations are wrong behaviors. If you think there will be a big drop, you will go short, then you will cry even more miserably. Some people say that the market is healthy, but David thinks this view is wrong. What is a healthy market? David cannot interpret the market without a correction as healthy. I didn't say that the current market is a demon market. If you have any doubts about the market, you can compare the current trend with April 2021. There will be a pit at the end, and then it will continue to rise until the price of Bitcoin rises to $300,000 per share in 2025 and then starts to pull back 90%. At the beginning of 2027, it will be less than $30,000 per share.
In the past two days, the cryptocurrency circle has been in mourning. In fact, there are two types of people who are crying the most. One is that people who are fully invested in altcoins and do not hold Bitcoin are crying a lot, because Bitcoin has not fallen much, but altcoins have fallen by half or knees.
Second, short-term contracts, most of them have been liquidated, and altcoins have been liquidated even with double leverage. Unless the chips of about 30,000 last year are safe now, those who come in later with fomo will be miserable.
Nowadays, if you enter the market to buy the altcoin spot at the bottom, you will surpass 90% of people. When buying at the bottom, blindly all-in is a dangerous behavior. The market fluctuates greatly, and it is almost impossible to accurately predict the lowest point. Therefore, it is wise to adopt a strategy of buying in batches. For example, when the price of Bitcoin falls by 7-8%, it may be an ideal opportunity to buy at the bottom. Assuming you have 1000U of funds, you can buy potential currencies in batches according to the ratio of 3:4:6:7 to spread the risk and get closer to the real market bottom.
Of course, the funds and batch ratios should be adjusted according to personal circumstances. Before making a decision, it is recommended to learn from successful cases and spend time to study the project in depth to improve the accuracy of decision-making. Here, I present a strategy for you to layout the spot of the cottage:
If the old cottage falls by 60% and the new cottage falls by 90%, you can consider entering the first warehouse at will, adding three warehouses according to the ratio of 2:3:5, and adding one warehouse for every 20% drop.
The risk point is that the big cake has not yet reached the position I expected, but many cottages have reached the expected position. I think the next decline of the cottage will begin to follow the big cake, and it is difficult to continue the trend of big cake fluctuations and cottage declines. If the big cake falls by 20%, the cottage will fall by about 30%, just filling your three warehouse positions.
In the next few months, we will focus on three sectors:
Sports sector: In response to the European Cup in June and the Olympics in July and August, CHZ will be the first to bear the brunt. The three musketeers santos, LAZIO, PORTO plus some sports tokens other than football will surely see the light of day
AI sector: A new sector that came out this year, long-term positive GPT 5.0 will soon be internally tested, and will be publicly tested in August and September, which is another wave of heat competition. In addition to short-term positives: FET, AGIX, OCEAN three currencies are combined into one, and the heat of the combination called ASI is hyped.The same place will fly together soon.
MEME meme section: MEME coin is the currency with the most growth in each round of bull market, and it is also the currency with the most zeros. Many new investors will think that more zeros means cheaper. If you remove any zero, it will be 10 times. MEME coin is always the most popular in the bull market
Click on the avatar, follow the homepage introduction to find me, face the fans, my bull market strategy layout, free sharing, be a free blogger, just to increase fans. If you come to me, I can take you ashore, I will not let my fans miss out in this round of bull market! Just lie down!
3. MEME series, attention targets: DOGE, PEPE, FLOKI, WIF, SATS, AIDOGE, MEME (getting rich quickly must endure a big correction)
4. ENA: As a rare innovation in the stablecoin track, it continues to show strong consensus in controversy. The new coin can enter the top five in terms of transaction volume, which is really amazing!
5. RWA sector: emerging hotspot, Wall Street institutional layout, focus on targets: ONDO, TRU, POLYX; RWA field is most likely to produce a track of 100 times, because of Wall Street background, these people will not easily sell without more than 10 times;
6. AI sector: GPT5 is expected to be released in the summer of the middle of the year, focus on targets: WLD, RNDR, FET, LPT, ARKM, NFP, JASMY;
7. New public chain: focus on targets: TIA, APT, SUI, SEI are the leaders among the new public chains;
8. BTC ecology: the sector emphasized by this Hong Kong Carnival, the inscription sector has great potential in the second half of the year according to the current financing situation, focus on targets: STX, ORDI, SATS, RATS, PIIN (the number of transactions on the chain today, the first in the increase list!); $BTC $ETH $SOL
Whales are buying these meme coins in large quantities
The market is confusing, only memes have been around recently, and prices have soared Although traditional popular coins such as Dogecoin still have a place, New meme coins have recently begun to stir up the storm. In recent market fluctuations, some meme coins have shown signs of fatigue, and the new focus is on two specific meme coins. Whale-level investors, giants with a large number of coins, have turned their attention to PUPS and POPCAT,
Legendary investor paulo.sol has recently purchased a large number of PUPS and POPCAT. This person has already made huge profits on meme coins such as BONK and WIF, and his investment vision is highly recognized by the market.
At present, paulo.sol already holds a large number of BODEN and WIF, but the focus has turned to new favorites.
Since April 11, he has invested millions of dollars to become the largest holder of PUPS and has spent money to purchase a large number of POPCAT.
However, the market reaction is mixed. The price of PUPS has fallen slightly recently, but its subsequent potential is still huge!
At present, the bull market is surging, and we have the opportunity to share passwords every day. Again, if you don’t know what to do in the bull market, click on my avatar, follow me, bull market spot planning, contract passwords, free sharing. I need fans, you need references. It’s better to follow than to guess.
Since December, this trader has made $23M trading meme tokens on Solana, with the biggest profits coming from:
▪️ WIF – $9.51M
▪️ BODEN – $7.94M
▪️ BONK – $6.28M
What’s special about this trader is that he starts buying tokens during the pump, and he also tries to pick top projects.
His most recent purchases are $1.77M PUPS and $5.97M POPCAT.
If you’ve been chasing ups and downs, often getting stuck, and have no direction, you can check out the pinned content on my homepage, which will help you🔥🔥🔥
On-chain data: Institutional bottom-fishing currencies! Hurry up and make a layout! The following currencies basically have tenfold potential! It’s right to follow the giants! 1. The big brother of the currency circle: BTC (if you want to invest steadily, it’s right to choose it to bottom-fish and invest regularly!) 2. The first brother of the public chain: ETH (closely following BTC, it is also a good choice for fixed investment) 3. The boss of decentralized trading: UNI, DYDX 4. The pioneer of cross-chain technology: DOT, ATOM 5. Exchange representatives: BNB, OKB (the own currency of the two major exchanges, fixed investment is also quite reliable) 6. Leaders in the field of NFT: DEGO, BAKE 7. The leaders of the second-layer network: MATIC, OP 8. Giants in the field of AI: AGIX, SNX 9. Popular players in the gaming industry: SAND, MANA 10. Leaders in DeFi lending: AAVE, COMP 11. Leaders in Ethereum 2.0: SSV, LDO 12. Pioneers of Web3: ENS, AR 13. Bigwigs in DeFi oracle: LINK $BNB $ETH $BTC
Knowing these four rules of Bitcoin, you won't lose money in the currency circle!
First, the Bitcoin bull-bear cycle rotates every four years. The bull market lasts for one and a half years, and the bear market lasts for three years. The bull markets were 2012-2013, 2016-2017, and 2020-2021. The next bull market is generally recognized to be 2024-2025.
Second, the Bitcoin halving market, the bull market will start in the next 6 months, this is the real halving market, this time it may start in mid-to-late June.
Third, the lowest point of the bear market. After the bull market, Bitcoin will fall by 70%-90%. Usually, we buy the bottom position after a 70% drop and then hoard the currency. If there are two bottoming out, we will also buy boldly. At present, the bottom of the bear market in 2023 is around 15,400, and the bottoming out in May 2024 may be around 53,000.
Fourth, how much will it rise in 2025? Feilong predicts that Bitcoin will be worth $200,000 in 2025, which is the second or third quarter of 2025. If you ask Feilong how much he would sell Bitcoin for, Feilong recommends starting at $120,000 and selling more as the price rises. This is responsible for you, and the conservative recommendation is $120,000. #BTC🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Coins that can be bought at the bottom after this plunge:
1. AI sector: GPT5 is expected to be released in the middle of summer Focus on: RNDR, FET, LPT, ARKM, NFP, JASMY, WLD
2. MEME must-have in 2024 (suitable for small funds) Focus on: PEPE, floki, WIF, SATS (get rich quickly but must bear huge losses) The cycle is strong, it is best to operate only twice a year, and sell the capital as soon as you double it, and leave the rest to luck.
3. BTC Ecosystem: Inscription sector has great opportunities in the second half of the year according to the current financing situation Focus: STX, ORDI, SATS, MAP, ML, MUBI
4. Solana Ecosystem: Solana Annual Conference is scheduled to be held in September this year Focus: SOL, JTO, JUP, PYTH, BOME, BONK
5. New public chain: Focus: TIA, SUI, SEI
6. RWA sector: Needless to say, emerging hot spots, institutional layout Focus: ONDO, TRU, polyx
Zhao Changpeng, a letter from cz's wife, better understanding of Zhao Changpeng's legendary life
Dear Judge Jones: Thank you for taking the time to read this letter. I am the working partner of Changpeng Zhao (abbreviated as CZ) and the mother of his three children. I hope this letter can help Mr. Judge understand a more real Changpeng Zhao. In the spring of 2014, I met Zhao Changpeng at a school blockchain public event. Everyone called him CZ. Unlike the anonymous name used by many people, this is the initials of his real name. CZ was immediately invited to the stage to share impromptu after arriving that day because the organizers found out that he worked for the most popular Bitcoin wallet at the time (blockchain.info). He enthusiastically explained blockchain technology and Bitcoin principles to everyone. At that time, he had just sold his house to buy Bitcoin. Due to the decline in Bitcoin prices, his assets shrank significantly, but this did not hit his obsession with blockchain technology. His speech was full of idealism about how blockchain technology can bring positive changes to the world, which also greatly influenced and inspired me. Later, CZ chose to get involved in the encryption field and founded Binance. He certainly hopes that the company will succeed, but he is not a person who takes making money as the ultimate goal. He sincerely hopes to use technology to promote the progress of the world.