Opportunities and risks in the altcoin market

After the sharp drop on December 9, the altcoin market has been in a volatile adjustment for nearly 10 days, and most altcoins are now undergoing a "second test". The trading volume of this test is relatively small, indicating that fewer people are selling.

Previously, Bitcoin had a small correction around November 22, after which altcoins generally rose.

Now, Bitcoin has shown signs of a correction again, and altcoins may rise again after completing this test.

However, it should be noted that the current market is somewhat different from that time:

Now the supply of USDT is growing slower than before, the money in the market is not as abundant, and the liquidity is also worse.

At that time, Ethereum had just started a new rise after a round of adjustments, and now Ethereum's performance is not as strong.

Therefore, there are both opportunities and risks in the altcoin market. You can try to find trading opportunities, but don't be too optimistic or too aggressive.

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Now, Pengu still has a premium of dozens of points compared to Ape.

There may be several reasons for this premium:
The current attention premium; everyone buys the bottom when it falls and bets on the rebound premium; the project party may have a better pattern, resulting in a premium; other reasons...

The next key lies in whether the project party's pattern can really be implemented.

If there is a premium in the short term, it is not suitable to enter the market. Wait until the heat is over and see if there is a suitable opportunity.

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Bitcoin breaks new high of 108K

PENGU token rises 500%, crypto market shines with dual stars today

Today's cryptocurrency market overall slightly retraced, with total market value and intraday trading volume both declining, but the fear and greed index is in a state of 'extreme greed'.

After Bitcoin reached a new high of $108,268.45, it declined

However, its trading volume also dropped due to institutional measures such as strategic reserve proposals.

Altcoins vary in performance, with Ethereum and Solana showing varying degrees of decline

Ripple, on the other hand, is rising against the trend. On the gainers list, PENGU, BGB, and HBAR performed brightly. Meanwhile, APT, LDO, and HNT are among the coins with significant declines.

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This week's outlook: Continue to absorb the hype of altcoins, after a pullback, it will bring down altcoins. A typical strategy in a bull market is to firmly hold onto the main tokens! The adjustment is not yet over!!
Operation: Buy the dip and have not yet positioned in altcoins.

Meme: DOGE, only buy DOGE in the meme sector. Other altcoins may have higher potential gains, but DOGE has strong consensus. When DOGE rises to a certain point, it can be swapped for other coins just like any other.

Public Chains: SOL and SUI, SOL mainly targets lower-tier tokens. The bull market needs lower-tier tokens to soar. SUI, as a high-performance public chain, uses not just Move but also the Sui Move language. Interested individuals can visit the Sui official website for technical learning.

Some friends may not be able to hold onto their tokens, possibly because they are new to the market. In a bull market, there are many fluctuations. A bull market must be upwardly volatile; if you don't engage in arbitrage, it's better to follow with lower leverage at good points. Otherwise, just stick to holding tokens. If you can’t sleep well every night, it’s better not to play.

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Exploring the Price of Bitcoin on Christmas 2024, Seize Opportunities and Beware of Risks [Raising Hands][Raising Hands]

1. Historical Price Trends

Looking back, Bitcoin often saw a price surge on Christmas, especially on December 24, after the halvings in 2016 and 2020, attracting the attention of investors.

2. Expectations for 2024

In 2024, after another halving, based on historical patterns, the price may rise again around Christmas, with potential fluctuations around December 24, hiding small investment surprises.

3. Key Weekly Return Rates

From the perspective of weekly returns, weeks 51 and 52 are often crucial periods for Bitcoin price increases, as market sentiment and funds work together to drive prices up, providing investors with sweet returns.

4. Investment Risk Warning

Investing carries risks. While looking forward to the rise in Bitcoin prices, investors need to remain rational and calm, objectively analyzing market dynamics and risk factors, and conducting comprehensive risk assessments and fund management.

5. Summary and Outlook

In summary, Bitcoin prices are expected to rise on Christmas 2024, but while investors seize opportunities, they must guard against risks. With reasonable strategies and management, we hope Bitcoin will showcase great performance again this Christmas.

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December 18th Major Events/BTC Analysis

Today's Major Events

1. Biden supports banning Congress members from trading stocks

2. BlackRock releases a 3-minute educational video on Bitcoin

3. OpenAI opens full-strength O1 model API, costs down by 60%

4. Trump has secured enough electoral votes to officially win the presidency

5. For the first time since early 2023, BTC-EUR market share surpasses BTC-JPY

6. Ohio House of Representatives submits a bill to establish a strategic Bitcoin reserve

7. Trump meets with the CEO of Crypto.com to discuss personnel appointments in the crypto industry

8. European Securities and Markets Authority releases final guidelines for implementing MiCA crypto regulations

9. Stablecoin infrastructure BVNK completes $50 million Series B funding led by Haun Ventures

10. About 400 current and former OpenAI employees can cash out millions of dollars by selling shares to SoftBank

BTC

Last night, Bitcoin once again broke new highs, currently trading above the 4-hour channel, and the upward trend remains bullish. Bitcoin ETF scale has already surpassed gold; given the clear upward trend, there's no need to gamble on a couple of bearish candles, lest you pick up sesame seeds and lose watermelons. Currently, the small range support is around 103400; one can buy on dips, with an extreme position pinning near 102000.

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Ethereum has broken through the roof, first looking at $5000, next step $8000!
　　Wall Street has indeed seen large funds entering, with both Bitcoin and Ethereum breaking through.
　　Many people think that Ethereum might be a false breakout, but you have to consider that BTC has truly broken through and will continue to rise, while ETH has tested the $4000 mark multiple times before, so I lean towards the idea that this $4000 is a real breakout and is about to enter a price vacuum zone, it's the stars and the sea!
　　And the current bizarre market situation is just as we analyzed a few days ago, it is indeed Bitcoin sucking the blood from small coins, Bitcoin needs to rise first, for example to around $120,000, before the small coins will follow and start to explode.
　　In fact, I was quite surprised that Ethereum can rise with BTC without being drained, it seems that Ethereum's ETF is indeed effective, being inundated by Wall Street's large funds, taking off together.

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December 17 Daily Hotspot Selection

1. Elected President Trump of the Beautiful Country stated that he plans to establish a national Bitcoin reserve, a move considered a significant support for Bitcoin.

2. The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December has risen to 97.1%, and the market is eagerly anticipating the upcoming FOMC meeting.

3. MicroStrategy increased its holdings by 15,350 Bitcoins through the sale of stocks and will be included in the Nasdaq 100 index on December 23.

4. SoftBank Group announced plans to invest $100 billion in the Beautiful Country to support the development of AI and infrastructure.

5. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission issued a Wells notice to the NFT project CyberKongz, indicating an increase in regulatory scrutiny.

6. The UK plans to ban public offerings of cryptocurrencies, allowing only registered crypto asset trading platforms to operate.

7. U.S. stocks closed mixed, with the Nasdaq index rising 1.24%.

8. JPMorgan reported that the Bitcoin mining economy continued to improve this month, with a 6% increase in hash rate.

9. Solana attracted over $300 million in cross-chain asset inflows in the past week, indicating rapid development of its ecosystem.

10. Former Coinbase CTO stated that the reputation gap between AI and the crypto space may gradually narrow.

11. Michael Saylor expressed that he believes Trump is serious about the plan to establish a national Bitcoin reserve.

12. Security companies reported a significant increase in password theft attacks targeting crypto wallets, particularly against macOS users.

13. FTX claims information shows that BitGo and Kraken will serve as compensation distribution partners, with payments made in stablecoins and fiat currency.

14. Crypto wallet provider Exodus announced it will be listed on the New York Stock Exchange, marking an acceleration of its entry into the traditional financial market.

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Big brother goes first, little brother follows:

1. The leader BTC continues to hit new historical highs, the second ETH has returned to the 4000 mark, while altcoins are in a period of volatile consolidation.

2. First, BTC leads the rise, after reaching a certain level it starts to consolidate, and then altcoins will surge, this pattern has repeated many times over the past two years.

3. Right now, avoid MEME coins, SOL series, and inscription coins, as these three types of coins have already been abandoned by capital. Even if you buy some old coins, like EOS or IOTA, the results will be better than these.

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ssv: This coin will likely break its historical high, aiming for a market cap of 1 billion. Previously, the staking track only had LDO and SSV, but now it has added more staking options like EIGEN and ETHFI, so let's lower our expectations a bit.

FTT: There will be new developments for FTT next year, and there are no major issues with its performance.

THE: I haven't seen any signs of a bottom yet, so I'll continue to wait; there is no bottom below, making it hard to make a judgment.

Meme sector: Be patient for a new round of Ethereum's breakout; meme coins still need adjustment, likely extending into next year. This month may still be characterized by fluctuations.

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After taking office, Trump is ambitious and has more influence in the cryptocurrency space than Musk.

This week, the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision is approaching, undoubtedly injecting momentum into the market. Bitcoin has surged strongly, hitting a new historical high of 107777, marking seven consecutive weeks of increase, the longest since 2021. Currently, after breaking the new high during the day, it experienced a volatile decline, followed by a rebound after dipping in the evening. The hourly chart shows a series of upward movements, indicating signs of continuation for the bulls.

In the short term, the pressure at the 108000 level is likely to be broken, and the market may anticipate the positive impact of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut. Next, it is expected to challenge the range of 108000 - 112000.

Market bullish sentiment is strong; trade with the trend and look for buying opportunities on pullbacks. Acknowledge the trend, maintain the right mindset, and follow one direction; a trending market will surely yield profits.

Daily market analysis is published along with recommendations for quality potential coins. Long-term sporadic recommendations for quality individual coins and market analysis will be provided; follow the main page Xiaozhi to avoid getting lost. #比特币冲向11万？ #市场全线看牛？ #BTC持续刷新高点

From a macroeconomic perspective, this week will welcome the last super central bank week of the year, especially the interest rate decisions from the United States and Japan are worth paying attention to. Regarding the Federal Reserve, due to the CPI inflation data meeting expectations, the market generally anticipates that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points early Thursday morning. The CME market probability has already shown that the likelihood of a rate cut is as high as 97%. However, this rate cut has almost been priced in by the market in advance, so going forward, the market's focus may be more on Powell's speech and the outlook for the January FOMC meeting.

As for Japan, although the last rate hike by the Bank of Japan led to significant fluctuations in the crypto market, the likelihood of a rate hike this time is low. The recent statements from Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda have leaned dovish, indicating a lower possibility of a rate hike. This judgment has also been widely recognized by the market, so the BOJ's decision may not have a significant impact on the market.

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【Market Insights: LINK】
Link has witnessed significant growth over the past month, breaking through several key resistance levels and reaching a new high of $30.91 on Friday.

The current price of LINK is around $28, and a pullback from the current trading level may retest $27. Below that, there is support at $23.8. If the price drops, the next support level to watch is $19.5.

Key resistance levels: $31, $33, $35

Key support levels: $27, $23.8, $19.5

A pullback is a buying opportunity!

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On December 17th, Bitcoin reached a new high again, but altcoins still showed no significant signs of following suit.

Yesterday's Review

BTC: Lowest point yesterday was 103264, highest point was 107777, with a fluctuation of 4512 and an amplitude of 4.3%.
ETH: Lowest point yesterday was 3882, highest point was 4110, with a fluctuation of 228 and an amplitude of 5.9%.

Today's Analysis

BTC: The current price of Bitcoin is 106400, which briefly broke a new high at 107700 in the early morning, then retreated slightly, but the decline was not significant, increasing the probability of further price increase. Resistance above is at 109800, and short-term support is at 104500.

ETH: The current price is 4021. With the rise of Bitcoin, ETH has also gone up, but altcoins have not shown significant gains. This is mainly due to the impact of ETF fund inflows; altcoins are likely to start moving only after the ETF market stabilizes. Short-term resistance is at 4093, and support level is at 3948.

Summary

ETF funds continue to flow in, but the inflow amount is relatively small and mainly concentrated in mainstream currencies such as Bitcoin and Ethereum, while altcoins are performing weakly. Most altcoins are at positions of support crossover, and market sentiment remains unstable.

Therefore, it is recommended not to take full position operations; if the market experiences a significant pullback, being fully invested may face considerable risk, and without opportunities to add positions at the bottom, one may enter a 'road to recovery'.

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Overview of Bull Market Characteristics:

Bitcoin Dominance: In the early stages of a bull market, Bitcoin's dominance rises, attracting funds from altcoins and performing strongly.

Ethereum Takes the Baton: Ethereum experiences a rally, driving up related altcoins as well as emerging sectors such as L2 scaling, blockchain games, and the metaverse.

Widespread Surge: The market enters a frenzy stage where asset doubling becomes the norm, with MEME concept coins, dog coins, and other fundamentally worthless coins experiencing skyrocketing prices, astonishing levels of market euphoria.

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The relevant information about short position liquidation is as follows:

When the price reaches 106266, short position liquidation has shown extremely strong momentum. Additionally, within the range of 107110 to 107350, the performance of short position liquidation is also quite strong. Furthermore, there are numerous pending short positions in the range of 105410 to 105620, and these short positions are relatively densely distributed in that area.

Now looking at the situation regarding long position liquidation:

The price level of 102450 can be considered the strongest support for long position liquidation. Within the range of 102900 to 104560, the strength exhibited by long position liquidation is also not to be underestimated. At the same time, the price level of 103770 is also a relatively critical and important point during the long position liquidation process.

Speaking of key points in the support area:

The range of 102400 to 104100 is an important support area above the 100,000 price level, where 103770 is a strong support point. If this price level is breached, then a stronger support level below is located at 102100. For short-term trading, these points are indeed ideal times for entering long positions and averaging down.

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Family, let's get a ticket code
The current price of moode is around 0.38, set the market price take profit at 0.425 and the stop loss price at 0.342

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Among the recent DeFi tokens, AAVE is the strongest, with five consecutive weekly gains and continuously reaching new recent highs. During the rise, the trading volume has increased, indicating that funds are entering the market. Its MACD shows a golden cross above zero and is diverging upwards, suggesting that there is still room for further increases. It is highly likely to break 400 and reach new recent highs. Those holding AAVE spot can continue to hold for potential gains.

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Grayscale Holdings Revealed: Which of the 35 Major Cryptocurrencies Will Lead the Future?
Highlighting the authority and future potential of Grayscale holdings to attract investor attention.

First, let's talk about DeFi (7 cryptocurrencies): JUP, ONDO, ENA, CORE, RUNE, AERO, PENDLE, these are all leaders in the DeFi space.

Next, let's discuss the underlying infrastructure (6 cryptocurrencies): TIA, PYTH, ATOM, AKT, NEON, these are the 'foundations' of the blockchain world.

The Layer 1 track is also not to be underestimated (10 cryptocurrencies): TON, TRX, APT, INJ, ICP, KAS, VET, OM, CELO, SEI, these are the stars among public chains.

The Layer 2 track is quite popular as well (7 cryptocurrencies): OP, ARB, STRK, POL (formerly known as MATIC), MNT, IMX, METIS, these are the 'accelerators' that speed up public chains.

The DePIN track (2 cryptocurrencies): AR, HNT, these two hold a significant position in the data field.

The AI+ track cannot be overlooked either (2 cryptocurrencies): FET, WLD, both are hot commodities in the AI sector.

As for the Meme track (1 cryptocurrency): DOGE, everyone is familiar with this, Musk's beloved pet.

Personally, I have high hopes for JUP, FET, and DOGE. Also, that puppies Ethereum chain related to Musk might just become the next Shiba Inu.

JUP is a DEX on the Solana chain, it gained popularity following the meme craze, RAY was removed by Grayscale, but JUP stayed, indicating its exceptional qualities. JUP's current price is quite reasonable; considering buying around 1.3.

FET is well-known in the AI community; although TAO is a bit expensive and WLD is underperforming, FET is a favorite among retail investors and has been included in Index 50, with good liquidity.

DOGE speaks for itself, Musk's pet, with limitless future potential; I believe it could rise to 1U.

The TON public chain is also quite interesting; it doesn't focus on TVL but rather on traffic, which might bring a wave of new users to the crypto space. In the future, in areas like memes and gaming, TON could shine brightly.

In the past 30 days, the performance of these cryptocurrencies has also been impressive: FET increased by 47.9%, JUP by 47%, DOGE had an even stronger performance with an increase of 84%, and TON rose by 43%.

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The moodeng upper four-hour K has harvested like this, and the lower K has been harvested again for me!?

The short-term moodeng now has three possibilities:
1. The yellow trend line breaks and stands firm, directly testing 45.13 pear.

2. The yellow trend line breaks but cannot stand firm, looking for support in the downward movement before starting to oscillate.

3. The yellow trend line is blocked, starts to pull back, and seeks support to oscillate.

Give it a little more time; once 0.42 can break and stand firm, we can directly intervene. For those who are cautious, wait below at 0.3177 for a fateful needle to come and catch us!

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