LIVE尚哥的加密逻辑
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Risks of Fed rate cuts
Is a rate cut a loose monetary policy? Will it necessarily be good for risky assets? No!
Today, Shang Ge will discuss the impact of the Fed's [first interest rate cut] on the market:
The interest rate cut has a more direct impact on the pricing of the bond market (positive), and a more indirect impact on the pricing of the equity market and risk market (negative, positive after fundamentals improve). The impact on Gami lies in the degree of liquidity depletion.
By category:
A. No rate cut in September: good news is lost, bad news is added. The market will go back to where it came from.
B. September rate cut: The market will take risk aversion measures in advance. The market has already priced in a sharp retracement.
Today, Shang Ge will discuss the impact of the Fed's [first interest rate cut] on the market:
The interest rate cut has a more direct impact on the pricing of the bond market (positive), and a more indirect impact on the pricing of the equity market and risk market (negative, positive after fundamentals improve). The impact on Gami lies in the degree of liquidity depletion.
By category:
A. No rate cut in September: good news is lost, bad news is added. The market will go back to where it came from.
B. September rate cut: The market will take risk aversion measures in advance. The market has already priced in a sharp retracement.
LIVELIVE尚哥的加密逻辑
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Stop the conspiracy theory that the Fed’s September interest rate decision will not cut interest rates. The goal is to boost non-US economies. If it fails to do so, it is inevitable to cut interest rates based on the current economic situation.
#美联储利率决议即将公布
#美联储利率决议即将公布
LIVELIVE尚哥的加密逻辑
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Fed rate decision outlook
Fed rate decision preview:
There is a high probability that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25bp in its first interest rate decision.
50BP means pricing risk of recession reality;
In terms of forward guidance after the interest rate decision, Powell is unlikely to preset the path for subsequent rate cuts. The only information the market can get from Powell's mouth is the live demonstration of Tai Chi.
Risk Pricing Points:
1. The Fed cuts interest rates for only one reason: liquidity is drying up, regardless of whether the tightening cycle is about to burst or the Fed can no longer withstand it;
The key point of liquidity is that the bond market diverts liquidity from the stock market, and it is bound to divert liquidity, it is just a matter of proportion.
There is a high probability that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25bp in its first interest rate decision.
50BP means pricing risk of recession reality;
In terms of forward guidance after the interest rate decision, Powell is unlikely to preset the path for subsequent rate cuts. The only information the market can get from Powell's mouth is the live demonstration of Tai Chi.
Risk Pricing Points:
1. The Fed cuts interest rates for only one reason: liquidity is drying up, regardless of whether the tightening cycle is about to burst or the Fed can no longer withstand it;
The key point of liquidity is that the bond market diverts liquidity from the stock market, and it is bound to divert liquidity, it is just a matter of proportion.
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Mid-Autumn Festival is coming
Wish all coin friends a happy Mid-Autumn Festival in advance! All the best!
Of course, the sincerity of verbal blessings is not enough!
This tweet will be forwarded more than 100 times before 18:00 tomorrow
A short-term arbitrage target will be synchronized at 18:00 tomorrow!
PS:
Shang Ge’s last public arbitrage opportunity target is SUN! In this lax market environment, the price has increased 4 times in 6 days!
The target to be made public has fully shaken the warehouse, broken through the key pressure level, MACD OBV bullish volume is gradually expanding, there are market makers, and the sector leader~
Wish all coin friends a happy Mid-Autumn Festival in advance! All the best!
Of course, the sincerity of verbal blessings is not enough!
This tweet will be forwarded more than 100 times before 18:00 tomorrow
A short-term arbitrage target will be synchronized at 18:00 tomorrow!
PS:
Shang Ge’s last public arbitrage opportunity target is SUN! In this lax market environment, the price has increased 4 times in 6 days!
The target to be made public has fully shaken the warehouse, broken through the key pressure level, MACD OBV bullish volume is gradually expanding, there are market makers, and the sector leader~
See original
At present, the Fed has realized that the end of the interest rate hike has not exploded in any major economy. At present, after the warning of risk aversion, a large position is executed to avoid the risk of recession. ... Macroeconomics controls the world. Logic deduce the future. The realization of the US recession and the failure of the literary struggle have led to a full-scale armed struggle. From the perspective of investment, which one do you prefer? #美降息25个基点预期升温 #美国经济软着陆？ #衰退定价
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The annual rate of US unadjusted CPI in August was 2.5%, expected to be 2.6%, and the previous value was 2.90%
Qualitative forecast, steady and steady.
Qualitative forecast, steady and steady.
LIVE尚哥的加密逻辑
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The US CPI data will be released tonight at 20:30:
If the data falls below 2%, it indicates a recession, which is a big negative and a low probability.
If the data falls above 2.9%, it indicates that the US economy is very resilient and the Fed will be confident that it can still withstand high interest rates, which is a big negative and a low probability.
If the data falls between 2.9% and 2.6%, it indicates that the US economy is slightly resilient, which is a small negative and a medium probability.
If the data falls below 2.6%, as long as it does not approach 2% infinitely, it indicates a soft landing, which is a small positive and a high probability.
#CPI数据
#CPI年率
If the data falls below 2%, it indicates a recession, which is a big negative and a low probability.
If the data falls above 2.9%, it indicates that the US economy is very resilient and the Fed will be confident that it can still withstand high interest rates, which is a big negative and a low probability.
If the data falls between 2.9% and 2.6%, it indicates that the US economy is slightly resilient, which is a small negative and a medium probability.
If the data falls below 2.6%, as long as it does not approach 2% infinitely, it indicates a soft landing, which is a small positive and a high probability.
#CPI数据
#CPI年率
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King of Understanding: Will you get pregnant within 9 months?
Harris: The first female president of the United States may be on the scene
Crypto assets: Dad, stop messing around
Ps:
Has the American government reached the point where it cares whether a woman will get pregnant [sad face]
The market is betting with real money that the United States is likely to have its first female president
It is certain that there will be no unilateral market before November, and a new high is impossible
The probability of a new high this year is also declining
Harris: The first female president of the United States may be on the scene
Crypto assets: Dad, stop messing around
Ps:
Has the American government reached the point where it cares whether a woman will get pregnant [sad face]
The market is betting with real money that the United States is likely to have its first female president
It is certain that there will be no unilateral market before November, and a new high is impossible
The probability of a new high this year is also declining
See original
535 is a relatively important support level for Pancake
The macro situation has not reversed yet, because the risk of US stocks has not been released in the early stage of the Fed's interest rate cut
The market disagrees on soft landing or hard landing
Both have to fall, the latter will fall more, and the former will fall more gently.
What about Pancake ETF?
What do you see in the figure below?
There is a high probability of short-term arbitrage opportunities for elastic targets.
The macro situation has not reversed yet, because the risk of US stocks has not been released in the early stage of the Fed's interest rate cut
The market disagrees on soft landing or hard landing
Both have to fall, the latter will fall more, and the former will fall more gently.
What about Pancake ETF?
What do you see in the figure below?
There is a high probability of short-term arbitrage opportunities for elastic targets.
See original
The US CPI data will be released tonight at 20:30:
If the data falls below 2%, it indicates a recession, which is a big negative and a low probability.
If the data falls above 2.9%, it indicates that the US economy is very resilient and the Fed will be confident that it can still withstand high interest rates, which is a big negative and a low probability.
If the data falls between 2.9% and 2.6%, it indicates that the US economy is slightly resilient, which is a small negative and a medium probability.
If the data falls below 2.6%, as long as it does not approach 2% infinitely, it indicates a soft landing, which is a small positive and a high probability.
#CPI数据
#CPI年率
If the data falls below 2%, it indicates a recession, which is a big negative and a low probability.
If the data falls above 2.9%, it indicates that the US economy is very resilient and the Fed will be confident that it can still withstand high interest rates, which is a big negative and a low probability.
If the data falls between 2.9% and 2.6%, it indicates that the US economy is slightly resilient, which is a small negative and a medium probability.
If the data falls below 2.6%, as long as it does not approach 2% infinitely, it indicates a soft landing, which is a small positive and a high probability.
#CPI数据
#CPI年率
See original
U.S. August seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls: previous value 8.9 (11.4 revised down to 8.9) expected 16 announced 14.2
[The data once again points to a recession]
Federal Reserve Board member Waller:
If appropriate, will support "early" interest rate cuts.
[Under what circumstances will an emergency interest rate decision be made in advance of the statutory interest rate window? When a financial crisis breaks out. ]
[The data once again points to a recession]
Federal Reserve Board member Waller:
If appropriate, will support "early" interest rate cuts.
[Under what circumstances will an emergency interest rate decision be made in advance of the statutory interest rate window? When a financial crisis breaks out. ]
See original
Under the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut: A letter to you who are about to encounter a mad bull
Yesterday I saw a big V fell into an anxious state due to the rise and fall of the market, and he wrote a long and lyrical essay to recharge his holdings and faith!
As a trader, inner firmness in a confused state does not represent faith, but at most is just helpless inertia; clear market pricing logic is the effective support for the strategy!
one.
After multiple rounds of market shocks, most investors suffered huge losses and began to question their lives, but there is no doubt that the bull market is still here!
The logic is very clear. The three major supports of this bull market: the halving bull of Bitcoin, the incremental bull of ETFs and the easing bull of monetary policy. The pricing of the halving bull has exceeded half, and the degree of easing of monetary policy has a correlation with the incremental flow rate of ETFs.
As a trader, inner firmness in a confused state does not represent faith, but at most is just helpless inertia; clear market pricing logic is the effective support for the strategy!
one.
After multiple rounds of market shocks, most investors suffered huge losses and began to question their lives, but there is no doubt that the bull market is still here!
The logic is very clear. The three major supports of this bull market: the halving bull of Bitcoin, the incremental bull of ETFs and the easing bull of monetary policy. The pricing of the halving bull has exceeded half, and the degree of easing of monetary policy has a correlation with the incremental flow rate of ETFs.
See original
I once had a godsend opportunity to live a worry-free life, but I didn't cherish it. I only regretted it when I lost it. If God gave me another chance, I would work hard and never speculate in cryptocurrencies. If I had to put a time limit on this career, it would be 10,000 years.
See original
The Risks of a Fed Rate Cut: Pricing the Reality of a Recession Trade
The friction between theory and reality, the sparks of transactions and pricing.
1. Is there no recession in the U.S. economy? The U.S. non-farm data on August 2 pointed to a recession, and U.S. stocks and bond markets plummeted. Yesterday, the Japanese stock market and bond market had circuit breakers, the Korean stock market had circuit breakers, and the Bank of Thailand launched a rescue plan.
Biological stress: The observer himself will be affected by the thing he observes and the degree of distortion of his observation action may vary. Opinions may differ, but the facts on the market have either penetrated the positions of investors who ignored the non-agricultural data, or turned the shouts of the technical school halfway up the mountain into hysteria.
1. Is there no recession in the U.S. economy? The U.S. non-farm data on August 2 pointed to a recession, and U.S. stocks and bond markets plummeted. Yesterday, the Japanese stock market and bond market had circuit breakers, the Korean stock market had circuit breakers, and the Bank of Thailand launched a rescue plan.
Biological stress: The observer himself will be affected by the thing he observes and the degree of distortion of his observation action may vary. Opinions may differ, but the facts on the market have either penetrated the positions of investors who ignored the non-agricultural data, or turned the shouts of the technical school halfway up the mountain into hysteria.
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Token2049
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The Fed meeting is today, ,
At the moment, the expectations are as follows:
⚫ ~64% - the rate will be reduced by 0.50%.
⚫ ~36% — the rate will be reduced by 0.25%.
Unexpectedly, the market expects a 0.50% decline, which is not fully priced in. Therefore, such a move by the Fed could trigger a short-term rise in the market. But 0.25%, given market expectations, could, on the contrary, lead to a short-term decline.
At the same time, former head of BitMEX Arthur Hayes said from the stage of Token2049 that the Fed will collapse the market by lowering the key interest rate.
What are your expectations?
The rate will be reduced by 0.25% —🔥
The rate will be reduced by 0.50% — 👍
Pause / raise —😱
#FOMC #BinanceLaunchpoolHMSTR #Token2049 #NeiroOnBinance #USRetailSalesRise
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