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Just recently, the three gaps of CME $BTC have all been filled. The first two are gaps caused by the decline, and the third is the gap at the opening this morning. Although gap filling is metaphysical, according to my previous statistics, the probability of gap filling within three weeks is the highest.

Since 2020, I have personally counted 25 daily gaps, of which 23 have been filled, and only 11 of these 23 were filled within a week, 3 were filled within two weeks, and 4 were filled within three weeks. It is very difficult to count those that have been filled after more than three weeks.

So if we look at the proportions, there is a 47.82% chance that the gap will be filled within a week, a 60.86% chance that it will be filled within two weeks, and a 78.26% chance that it will be filled within three weeks. In addition, the total gap filling rate in these four years reached 92%.

Filling the gap is indeed a metaphysics, but this metaphysics must be taken seriously.

🎁Discuss the topic of BTC's future market trend, 100USDC bonus

Rules: Binance Square and quote my Binance Square article, talk about your views on the future market, and attach your logic 👉5 high-quality posts will be selected from Binance Square, and each person will receive 20 USDC.

The recent market situation is puzzling. The US stock market has been rising and recovering the decline, and there is a trend of breaking through the previous high. The currency circle has been falling and there are signs of a second bottoming out... Especially a few days ago, it was a false second bottoming out and then broke through to 62,000. In the early morning, it was a false breakthrough and stabilized at 60,000, and fell directly to around 56,000. Share your views on how BTC will go next

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Market topic debate, 200USDT prize draw, Binance provides support!

First of all, let me talk about my humble opinion: the bull market is not over yet, and it is on the way. Every round of market start-up has experienced twists and turns. As the saying goes: Therefore, when God is about to send a big bull to the market, he must first make his mind suffer, his muscles and bones tired, his body hungry, and his body empty, and then increase his ability.

There are several points on the current data: First, ETF inflow + US government support will become the biggest opportunity for this round of bull market, and it is precisely this opportunity that requires sufficient absorption and washing. Second, similar to the black swan of the global financial market on Black Monday, BTC smart money big holders did not panic sell, but continued to accumulate chips! Third, 85% of the central banks of major countries in the world are currently in a loose interest rate cut state, and the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cut is approaching. Global flooding is the best antidote for every crisis.

This round of Japan's 🇯🇵 rate hike has released the recession panic caused by the Fed's rate cut in advance, which provides a cushion for the Fed's real rate cut, thereby effectively releasing the negative impact. On the contrary, waiting for the Fed to really cut interest rates may become a positive, and the probability of the Fed's rate cut in September is currently as high as 95%. I still maintain that around Q3 2025 will be the peak of this bull market. Judging from the data of the past two bull markets, the peak of the bull market generally occurs 518-546 days after the BTC halving, which happens to be the time point of Q3 in 25 years. As shown in the 👇 figure

📊In the 2015-2017 cycle, Bitcoin reached its peak 518 days after the halving
📊In the 2019-2021 cycle, Bitcoin reached its peak 546 days after the halving

So, our current bull market is far from over. It is only 111 days after the#BTChalving, and it is still early. About a year after the rate cut + more than 500 days after the BTC halving will be the peak of this bull market!

🏆Activity rules: Quote my article and express your views on the current market trend. Can BTC hit more than 100,000 US dollars in this bull market? And is the cryptocurrency bull market over? Be sure to attach your views + logic in the comment area!

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Topic debate, 200USDT bonus
Rules, quote my article and express your own views on the current trend. Can BTC reach a new high? And is encryption over? Be sure to attach your logic!

📌Personal subjective: The market has not ended. This round of decline is a black swan in the bull market. It can also be said that it is a leverage behavior, or it has entered the mid-term of the 519 bull market in 21 years.
Judging from the data of ETFs, purchasing power is still strong. I don’t think that the landing of ETFs will end the market.
The narrative of the second half of the year still exists. The interest rate cut does not mean that a larger increase will be seen immediately, but the interest rate cut is a powerful stimulant for the market in the long run.

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As long as you quote the following article, express your own views on the market, and post on Binance Square, I will select 10 high-quality works from everyone's posts and award them 20USDC each. The Square team will issue rewards in the form of USDC tokens within 15 working days after the end of the event. Family members actively participate!

The market situation of long and short positions has intensified. Many people attribute it to the fact that the Bank of Japan "let go" to appease the market, causing the crypto markets such as $BTC to "dance with the same frequency"...

✨What do you think about this?

🔥 I got 200U excellent review awards, and divided them into 10 parts for fans. You only need to click the [Repost] button below to express your unique views. Once selected, you can get a 20USDC reward.

Let me say first👇 (You don't need to say a lot of words, just be able to express your views clearly.)

1. The crypto market fluctuates. You think the German government sells coins, the US government transfers, and the Federal Reserve says it will cut interest rates. Japan, this young man, can't sit still... If you only look at this point, it's easy to be led by the nose. In fact, you should think more deeply about the back, such as the following.

2. The crypto market has become a multi-party market, with a large amount of hot money pouring into the market. Due to the lack of supervision and 7X24 global trading, in such an environment, large investors have an overwhelming advantage (this is the general environment, put here).

3. From the chain: In the past month, 358,000 BTC have been transferred to the permanent holder address (Figure 1). In July, the global spot ETF inflow was 53,000 BTC. This scale has reached an unprecedented height, and it is obvious that the market has been buying on dips.

4. From a micro perspective: In the past 48 hours, 100 wallets purchased 2,800 $BTC (Figure 2), which also shows that many people are buying on dips.

5. Hot money enters the market to make money. The fastest way to make money in the currency circle is contracts, which has now become a zero-sum game between retail investors and large investors.

Large investors play games with the market in these ways:

(1) Buying a large amount of coins at a low price in the spot market, creating a rising situation, making most people think that the price will continue to rise after breaking through 70,000, and inducing long positions;

(2) Using international hot spots to create expectations; for example, the Japanese yen interest rate hike on July 31, the financial market rose briefly, and even though BTC fell slightly at the time, many people still went long. Long positions rose from 60.09% on July 30 to 74% on August 4 (Figure 3), which is a very dangerous signal, so on August 5...

🤔 Due to limited space, the above is just my personal opinion. I believe that many experts in the square have their own opinions. Please click the forwarding button below to express your own opinions, and you can share the 200U quota allocated to me by Binance Square.

#MarketDownturn