追风筝的车

Maybe this is the charm! It's a pity you are not a woman! I wish you wealth soon, take me flying!

If you challenge me, I can make sure you die in the cryptocurrency world without even knowing it. My master is not someone from the street!

Main Player: I'm about to pump it!
Retail Investor: I don't believe you! You're trying to trick me into getting on board again.
Main Player: This time I'm really going to pump it, are you getting on board?
Retail Investor: No!
Main Player: If I pump it to 30%, are you getting on board?
Retail Investor: No, it’s definitely a trap! What are you going to use to pump it with no liquidity?
Main Player: Then I'll pump it to 50%, are you getting on board?
Retail Investor: Are you serious? Let me see some more!
Main Player: I'll pump it to 100%, you mean you won't be tempted?
Retail Investor: Wow, are you really going to pump it? But there’s no reason for it!
Main Player: I'll continue to pump it to 200%!
Retail Investor: I don't care anymore, I’ll just join a bit, missing out will feel awful!
Main Player: Continue pumping to 300%
Retail Investor: I'm such an idiot, if I had joined earlier I would have made back my investment!
Main Player: Not enough yet, continue pumping to 400%
Retail Investor: Wow, this is too intense, I can't take it anymore, I'm all in!
Main Player: Let’s go down!!!

So don’t just keep staring at that heat map looking at the long-short ratio, it has some reference value but don’t take it too seriously. In cases of severe long-short imbalance, there is definitely an expectation of a pullback, but when the pullback happens you need to understand market expectations! Otherwise, your “perspective” is too small!
If you really need a reason, it’s: the market's FOMO sentiment is still not enough! $ETH

The atmosphere of sadness permeates the venue. I don't know what to say, I just want to say something. Are there any people making money these days? I see the comments are all about losing money, and 80% of people are holding onto their positions. You could say that actually, after a price movement, having a stop-loss and taking responsibility for your mistakes is nothing to be afraid of. What’s really terrifying is going down the path of holding onto positions without turning back, getting further and further down the wrong road is the most frightening.

Because my first lesson in trading was losing 70,000 yuan, my entire fortune, while holding positions. I’ve mentioned this several times in the square; this is a hard-earned lesson bought with real money and tears, hoping to wake up every retail investor who likes to hold positions. I don’t know the psychology of big investors, and I am not one of them. Big investors have their own blessings; I really don’t understand the world of wealthy people, I haven’t experienced it.

Today I withdrew 6,300 oil, of which 5,000 oil was sold to a friend who was holding his positions. Actually, I would prefer he hedge instead of holding positions. Recent market movements are driven by news and sentiment. If this wave really pulls up to 110,000 or even 120,000, looking back, is being stuck at 90,000 getting further away? Not to mention those who are stuck and can’t eat or sleep well, whether they can hold on is another question. Big investors have the money to hold on; they can easily bring in hundreds of thousands. What do we retail investors use to hold on? What if it fails?

If you’re stuck at 10,000 and 2,000 or 3,000 oil without a stop-loss, and you keep adding margin, if you’re stuck at 5,000 or 4,000 oil, you definitely won’t stop-loss, and if it keeps going up, what if you’re stuck at 8,000, 10,000, or even 20,000 oil? Maybe that’s the entire fortune of some people. I still remember how many big investors were killed when the last round surged; countless retail investors were stuck, forced to liquidate and exit the market.

Today a friend exited the circle, getting stuck at 3,000 oil and hitting 10,000 oil. I told him to withdraw at 7,000, but he didn’t listen to me, and in the end, he lost everything back. Today, his salary came in, and he lost more than 1,000 oil again, feeling disheartened. If I hadn’t made a profit, I wouldn’t have suggested withdrawing, and I wouldn’t be speaking here now. Making a profit really needs to be withdrawn; as long as you have your capital, there will be opportunities. Stop-loss and cash out; I lost money throughout April, almost 8,000 oil. When the market came, it bounced back, but if I had no money outside, what would I use to trade? 😢😢

Having been in trading for over a decade,
I have seen the craziest and most arrogant lives,
and I have also witnessed the most tragic and sorrowful lives.
Traders often oscillate between the peaks and hell.

01. A fool, who does not watch the trends, buys at the opening and sells at the closing, has a 50% chance of making money. A smart person, who carefully selects varieties, masters every technique, sets proper stop-losses, but often gets stopped out, may only have a winning rate of 20%.

Stop-losses are terrifying; volatility is often chaotic and can result in ineffective stop-losses. Always provide enough room for volatility to fluctuate.

02. Politics, poetry, vows are all lies, but numbers do not lie.

03. Both bulls and bears can make a fortune in the Wall Street stock market, only the greedy exception does not.

04. In the game of investment, to put it bluntly, the key to making money in the long run is that while others have run out of bullets, you still have plenty of bullets to pick up bargains freely.

05. Trading is a lonely game of personal heroism.

06. Ordinary is also a lifetime, and extraordinary is also a lifetime.

07. I always feel that investment-related books are definitely not written but rather piled up with money in the financial market.

08. I have spent the best time of my life exploring whether there is a successful path in financial investment, the Sphinx's riddle.

09. As swift as the wind, as gentle as the forest, as fierce as fire, as unyielding as a mountain.

10. Trading should seek invincibility, not victory.

The recent movement of BTC has completed the liquidation of short positions below the 101,400 area, which means that the short positions below this level have been gradually digested. Currently, it is becoming difficult to see any significant short concentration above 103,000.

Although there were some expectations of market increases earlier, the intensity of this surge has exceeded many people's imaginations. After all, there was no major positive news, yet such a strong rise occurred, which is indeed surprising.

There are two main reasons behind this:

First, shorts have been continuously adding positions at high levels.
Many bearish funds have been trying to short during the price increase, resulting in increased passive liquidation pressure, which in turn pushed the price higher.

Second, bulls are hesitant to chase the rise.
Apart from a wave of bulls entering around 92,800, the sentiment among bulls has generally been cautious during other periods, with an overall weak buying intention.

This situation resembles one side's power being continuously out of control (shorts passively pushing prices higher), while the other side lacks effective resistance (bulls not chasing the rise), ultimately leading to a market that moves upward in accordance with the trend.

Thus, this rise appears sudden, but it is actually a natural result caused by an internal imbalance in the market structure.

How the market will move next depends on two key questions:
One is whether the shorts still have confidence to continue shorting, and the other is whether the bulls will step in at high levels. If the shorts exit and the bulls hesitate to enter, then the market may enter a new balancing phase.

China suddenly released $139 billion
Those who know the business have already smelled blood: the Bitcoin storm is coming.
The biggest bull market signal exploded last night, but most people are still asleep. Just when the Federal Reserve was only thundering but not raining, China directly turned the table. The People's Bank of China hit two heavy punches:
The bank reserve ratio was cut by 0.5%
The policy interest rate was reduced by another 0.1%
This is equivalent to the Chinese version of the printing press directly ignited. Why do you say that this fire will burn Bitcoin? Because the newly printed banknotes have to find a place to go-now the Chinese stock market is a hopeless case, and the housing market is in the ICU. There are only two places where these hot money can go: gold and Bitcoin.
The historical script has been written long ago:
• After China released water in 2020, Bitcoin soared from $4,000 to $69,000
• The release of water in 2015 directly increased Bitcoin fivefold
• As soon as the epidemic prevention was relaxed in 2023, Bitcoin immediately rushed from 16,000 to 30,000
This is not metaphysics, but the physical law of capital flow. Every time China opens the tap, Bitcoin is always the first bucket to receive water. What is the most terrifying thing now? The Fed hasn't really taken action yet, and China has already fired the first shot.
Remember this rule:
Water release → money has nowhere to go → rush into Bitcoin → price explosion
It's only the first stage now, and it will be too late for retail investors to react.
It is recommended to take a screenshot and save this post, and come back to see it when Bitcoin breaks $100,000 - the earliest weather vane is China's 139 billion today. The current problem is not whether it will rise or not, but how fast it will rise. According to historical experience, the time window left for getting on the train will not exceed three months.
Forward to those friends who are still asking "Why does Bitcoin rise?" The starting gun of the new cycle has already sounded.

As the market continues to change, we have to pay close attention to market signals and seize new entry opportunities. Like + leave a message, and take you through the bull market to stand firm in the market and seize this round of big opportunities!

#比特币预测

Focus today: ETH LTC KAITO BTC

Summary of Powell's Speech and the Federal Reserve FOMC Statement (Full Text Attached)
Interpretation of Teacher Powell's Speech
1. The main reason for inflation is not the labor market, but taxes (disruption). However, I do not care about the decisions made by the Chairman; I only judge whether to cut interest rates based on the decisions made by the Chairman. The unsustainable debt is not my concern; I have no control over it.

2. Inflation is holding up well, employment is close to its maximum level, and the economy is stable, very good, good boy;

3. Tax rates are still higher than expected, which may lead to significant long-term inflation;

4. How low does the unemployment rate need to be before interest rates are cut? I don’t know; I need to look at the actual situation in the future and weigh these two goals of inflation and employment. Which one is further away will determine the decision, and how long it takes to achieve these goals.

5. I have the capital to wait; employment is very robust, and the economy is not in recession. The -0.3% GDP in the first quarter was distorted by imports; ignore it. I will just watch how the Chairman performs;

6. It is difficult for me to make a decision before negotiations are concluded. You haven’t reached a result, so I cannot assess the actual impact on inflation; therefore, I don’t know.

7. What do you think about the significant decrease in cargo volume at Chinese ports and the potential impact of shortages on the US? What do you think about the deadlock in negotiations? Old Powell: I don’t know; it’s not my concern. I can only influence resident demand through interest rate hikes or cuts; I have no control over supply chain issues, and how to negotiate is up to the Chairman; it has nothing to do with me.
------

FOMC Statement:
1. Interest Rate Decision: The benchmark interest rate will be maintained at 4.25%-4.50% with a vote of 12-0, marking the third consecutive time of holding steady.
2. Employment Outlook: The unemployment rate has stabilized, and the labor market is resilient.
3. Balance Sheet Reduction: The current pace of reducing Treasury and MBS holdings will continue.
4. Inflation Outlook: The inflation rate remains slightly high; the risks of high unemployment and high inflation have risen.
5. Economic Outlook: The uncertainty of the outlook has “further increased.” Despite the fluctuations in net exports affecting the data, economic activity continues to expand at a “robust pace.”

《Weekly Summary》
Released from the detention center on January 19th, after spending seven months there, I summarized the shortcomings in various aspects of my operations and mindset over the past two years (during which I nearly lost 650,000). The reasons are not elaborated here; what is lacking in the cryptocurrency circle is not technology or funds, but I believe that mindset is the most important link. With a high win rate combined with compound interest, you can achieve financial freedom even with a small initial investment. During my time in the detention center, I calculated that if I had 50,000 with a leverage of 5 times, earning just 10% per month, I could reinvest the compound interest into new leverage at the beginning of the next month, resulting in an annual income of 6 million. After I got out, I had only a little over 1,000 left, which I invested in Binance, and today is the 27th, I now have nearly 1,500 USDT. I hope to maintain this next week, strictly adhering to my own standards, and before each operation, I need to have my own judgment on the rise and fall. Keep it up!

Don't think of market makers as the big players anymore; they are more like sellers on Taobao.

One day, I suddenly realized that the "market makers" in the crypto space are actually like - Taobao sellers.

When you want to buy a coin and open the exchange page, there's always someone waiting for you to place an order, right? When you want to sell, the same thing happens; there's always someone ready to take your coin. This "always someone" behind the scenes is actually the market makers doing their job.

They are like suppliers on Taobao, always someone on duty, ready to respond, responsible for setting up the entire market, ensuring you can buy in and sell out.

You can understand it this way 👇

You want to buy? They sell.

You want to sell? They buy.

And they earn a little bit of hard-earned money from the price difference between buying and selling, one transaction at a time.

They don't necessarily believe in the potential of the coin, nor are they here to bet with you on price fluctuations; they primarily survive by "doing more trades and making small profits on the price differences."

Moreover, many new projects just launched have cold liquidity; if no one is placing orders, it’s impossible to trade. At this time, market makers are invited to support the venue, placing some buy and sell orders and keeping the prices from being so outrageous, just like how a new Taobao store invites people to place orders to create a buzz.

So, don’t be fooled by the name "market makers"; essentially, they are:
The stall holders of the market, the facilitators of projects, and the transporters of liquidity.

In a nutshell:
"With them around, the market looks lively; without them, it seems like no one is shopping."

Doesn't it seem less mysterious when you put it this way?
#WEB3 #市商

Suddenly, a question arises: how does Ding Lei's NetEase make money?
Today, I saw the latest Forbes China ranking, where Ding Lei is ranked sixth. Then I looked through the rankings over the years, and Ding Lei has never dropped out of the top ten. However, I haven't heard of any significant moves from NetEase in these years. Look at Liu Qiangdong and Lei Jun, who are so hot right now, yet their net worth is not as high as Ding Lei's. I used to know that Ding Lei's company was into gaming, but now gaming is basically dominated by Tencent. What are they relying on for revenue? So I went online to find answers and got educated by netizens.
Netizens said: Tencent's games get a thousand people to each spend six yuan. NetEase's games get one person to spend sixty thousand. The underlying logic of NetEase games and Tencent games is completely different. Tencent's games are nurturing types; you can play with small investments and minimal effort, and they don't support item trading, making account value low, and you don't even truly own them. NetEase games are management types; you need to pay to work, and both accounts and items can be easily converted to cash, which can be used for investment, trading, or even money laundering. The average NetEase player is not as happy as a Tencent player, but top-tier NetEase players definitely laugh at Tencent players as being big spenders. A treasure chest differentiates NetEase completely from other gaming companies.
In 'Dream of Dreams', there are 6 million online players at the same time, with a card cost of 0.6 yuan per hour, but that's just the minimum. The in-game trading platform 'Treasure Chest' has daily transactions worth tens of billions, and NetEase takes a 5% transaction fee. Do you think it's profitable? Not to mention the in-game 'Immortal Jade' system, which has substantial profits. A game account can sell for hundreds of thousands, and each transaction incurs a fee of over ten percent.
In 'Journey to the West', a double ultimate holy monkey is priced at 1.3 million. You can carry 20 of such pets, and store 10 more at home. Spending hundreds of thousands to play 'Dream of Dreams' won't even make a sound; you can get killed in an instant. If you want to survive, you have to invest a few hundred to a thousand; otherwise, it's simply impossible.
The key point is that Ding Lei truly loves his company. He hasn't sold shares for cash until he made money. To this day, Ding Lei holds 46% of NetEase's shares, and NetEase has a net profit of over 30 billion each year. Excluding stock market value, no one else in mainland China can produce as much cash as Ding Lei.
Among the original three major portals—NetEase, Sohu, and Sina—only NetEase is still thriving.
Looking at Ding Lei's success, could it provide some insights for entrepreneurs in the crypto space and GameFi?

Quick Turnaround! U.S. Treasury Sell-off Hits Trump's Soft Spot, He’s Panic-Stricken (In-depth)
1. There has been a strange occurrence these past few days; aside from the sharp decline in the U.S. dollar index and U.S. stocks, U.S. Treasuries are also being sold off, leading to a surge in U.S. Treasury yields, resulting in a dual hit to both stocks and bonds.

Latest Situation: The yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury bond has risen to 4.48%, marking the largest weekly increase since 2001. The yield on the 30-year Treasury bond has risen to 4.95%, with the largest weekly increase since 1982.

This means that for every 0.1% increase, the U.S. government has to pay an additional $36 billion in interest each year. This week, the U.S. government hasn't received a single cent in tariffs and has already bled over $200 billion, and the bleeding continues.

2. Who is selling U.S. Treasuries? Japan claims that while they hold a lot, they really haven't sold any. What mysterious force is at play here?

📌 Core Opinion: If a large amount of U.S. Treasuries is being sold in the market at prices below face value, then the “principal” decreases, and based on unchanged yields, the yield after purchase naturally increases. Those in need will buy these “high-yield” Treasuries that are being sold off; who will still buy the newly issued ones by the Federal Reserve? Or the new issuances will reference this new yield for issuance, which raises the risk further! The pressure on the U.S. to roll over maturing Treasuries is enormous, with $8.4 trillion maturing this year.

3. What does this mean? The U.S. national government has an annual revenue of $5 trillion. Now the problem arises; new debt must be issued to repay old debt. Understanding this, Trump has been looking for a buyer to take over, converting short-term debt into 30-year long-term debt, but not only are the Chinese unwilling to take it, even the Japanese are sneak-attacking.

4. U.S. Treasuries are extremely important; they are the ballast of the U.S. capital markets. U.S. Treasuries can almost be equated to the U.S. dollar domestically. A significant rise in Treasury yields means a substantial drop in prices. Once financial institutions that use Treasuries as important collateral cannot withstand this depreciation, it leads to liquidity exhaustion issues, and the Federal Reserve must intervene; otherwise, we face a new round of cascading explosions, repeating the mistakes of the financial crisis.

Of course, Americans will no longer suffer such losses; U.S. Treasuries might be one of the few tools that can manipulate Trump. As long as everyone tacitly increases the sell-off of U.S. Treasuries, forcing the Federal Reserve to step in,
Brothers, I feel a turnaround is imminent; let’s wait and see.