1. Macro data:

- Former St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said plans to raise interest rates again this year should not be abandoned when he updates forecasts later this month.

- Boston Fed President Collins said patience is needed as it assesses economic data to determine next steps, and trends suggest further interest rate hikes may still be needed.

The ISM services index rose to 54.5 in August from 52.7 in the previous month (52.5 expected). A data that was originally expected to decline was higher than all economists' expectations, which will naturally cause a strong reaction from the market.

2. Market Overview

Chapter 3: Test your skills

September 6, 2013 was a sunny day, a day worth remembering.

When I was simply cleaning the office, I suddenly heard someone calling me outside the door.

"Li Ran, there are logistics accessories we sent from Zhongzhou over there. Let's go pick up the goods together."

From the sound of his voice, I knew it was Ma Shuai. Ma Shuai was born in 1991. He is not very old, but he is very smart and has a maturity beyond his age. I have entered the society with him for a long time, and he also has personal cultivation.

It is human nature to recognize people by listening to music.

"Okay, how much is the total of today's order? Can I prepare it?" I asked him when he came in.

Chapter 2 Successfully Entering the Market

"Hello, hello, is this Mr. Li Ran? I am Xiaoxia, the account manager of the 18th member unit of the Tianjin Exchange." The voice is pleasant to the ear, soft and sweet.

I was excited at this time, not because of my little sister’s voice, but because I had found an organization and a platform where I could show my talents. Everything else is normal and polite, and all account opening and deposit operations follow the procedures.

Let me briefly introduce myself: Li Ran was born in a poor peasant family. One of his parents was a college student, and later settled in a foreign country. With his own ability, he became the head of a certain state-owned enterprise and a factory, and became the talk of the town. I also follow his example. Although my grades in junior high school were not among the best, I had never been among the top ten in the class (because my grandfather’s family paid more attention to education, and he went to one of the key middle schools in the county). According to the junior high school teacher at the time, the top ten in our class were all young talents from key high schools in the county, and their high school entrance examination scores should be considered relatively normal. They missed out on the public-funded students in key high schools by 6 points, while the self-financed students passed the exam. Taking into account the tuition fee of 8,000 at the time, I went to a relatively ordinary high school with a self-financed admission notice from a key high school. After high school, there was a serious phenomenon of partiality in subjects. I was strong in liberal arts and weak in science. I don’t know which one was wrong. When the liberal arts and sciences were separated, I chose science, which I was least good at. I took it easy and finally entered a relatively good junior college with a score of three. Sometimes people really have to believe in fate. Later, I felt that the first choice of liberal arts and sciences in life also paved the way for my own destiny, and the gears of destiny had begun to turn. If you choose liberal arts, entering a good normal school and becoming a glorious people's teacher may also be a good choice.

Chapter 1 Please enter the urn#Althoughit has not yet entered autumn, the evening in Yanbei area has already become slightly cooler. Time flies so fast, and the annual Ghost Festival has quietly arrived. The Yanbei area attaches great importance to the Hungry Ghost Festival and the Winter Clothes Festival, which is different from the customs in our northern Henan area. Starting a few days before the Hungry Ghost Festival, people have been going to cemeteries to burn paper and flowers to pay homage to their ancestors.

After the Hungry Ghost Festival, the next festival is the Mid-Autumn Festival. When it comes to the Mid-Autumn Festival, I always think of my relatives at home. I haven’t been back home since the Spring Festival. Sitting alone at the desk is a bit sad. This year I don’t know why, but I started to have minor problems with my body. Maybe it’s because I just turned thirty-five and am no longer young. Growing up year by year is a reality that no one can escape.

Macro data: The US non-farm payroll data is released in the evening - a very difficult time to interpret. One of the three key data was better than market expectations, one was worse than market expectations, and one was in line with market expectations:

- The U.S. unemployment rate in August was 3.8%, unexpectedly much lower than market expectations (expected 3.5%, previous value 3.5%);

- The U.S. non-farm payrolls in August were 187,000, higher than market expectations (expected 170,000, previous value 187,000)

- The average hourly wage in the United States in August was 4.3% year-on-year, in line with market expectations (expected 4.3%, previous value 4.4%). After the non-agricultural data was released, the U.S. dollar index fell sharply (later rebounded), while the price of gold stood at $1,950 ( After that, the rally subsided and continued to fall to the 1938 line), but the violent fluctuations in the market only lasted 15 minutes. Later, it was announced that the U.S. ISM manufacturing index rose to 47.6 in August, a six-month high, stabilizing at a weak level. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield hit a daily high of 4.1749%, rising by about 6.0 basis points during the day. It also fell to a daily low of 4.0538% after the release of the non-farm payrolls report. Market Comments: The trend of gold is basically within expectations. After the 4-hour divergence, it was blocked by the MA60 daily moving average; the trend of the currency circle is relatively weak, with the lowest reaching the 25855 line and then oscillating around 26000; Ethereum has fallen relatively sharply , dropped to the 1633 line. The current market trend maintains a weak and volatile trend. All economic data this week have been released. In the short term, we will see whether the 2H chart indicators can turn upward. Only then will the intraday market stabilize at the 25800-25900 line, starting a small rebound. There may not be enough room. It will be too large, in the range of 26300-26500.

Macro data:

Yesterday, the inflation indicator favored by the Federal Reserve increased moderately as the market expected. In July, the core PCE price index increased by 0.2% month-on-month for the second consecutive month, the lowest monthly growth rate in more than two years. The year-on-year growth was slightly faster by 0.1 percentage point compared with June. to 4.2%; however, inflation-adjusted personal consumption expenditures increased by 0.6% month-on-month, the highest growth rate in half a year.

The commentary said that the newly released data gave the market mixed feelings: on the one hand, inflation indicators increased slightly month-on-month in two months, stimulating the growth of consumer spending and making the U.S. economy more likely to avoid recession; on the other hand, the resilience of the economy made people Worries give the Fed more reason to keep tightening in order to continue lowering inflation. The market's focus shifts to today's blockbuster employment report, which is also the last non-farm payrolls data before the Federal Reserve's next meeting.

Last night, the number of U.S. ADP employment in July was far less than market expectations. As reflected in the unexpected drop in job vacancies announced the previous day, the labor market is cooling; U.S. second-quarter GDP was revised down to 2.1%, lower than market expectations. 2.4%. Economic data fell short of expectations. Let’s take a look at the market’s reaction:

- The U.S. dollar index fell 0.29%, sharply reduced from the 0.5% decline in the previous trading day; - U.S. stocks rose only slightly, with the Dow Jones rising slightly by 0.11%, the S&P 500 rising by 0.38%, and the Nasdaq rising by 0.54%. ; - Gold prices fell back in late trading after rising, but closed above $1,940; - U.S. Treasury bonds rose slightly, with the 2-year Treasury bond yield falling 0.4 basis points to 4.8901%; the 10-year Treasury bond yield fell 0.2 basis points to 4.1178 %. -The trend of the currency market is quite intriguing. It fell 1.48% during the day, which did not synchronize with the trend of the NQ index. Perhaps the market was overly optimistic about Grayscale winning the SEC lawsuit the day before yesterday and then recovered after the surge, but the daily closing line still closed on the 20th. above the moving average. The daily trend is bullish, and the market becomes confusing based on the 4H trend. The MACD indicator in the attached picture is running at a high level and is not currently crossing. Then the market may have two trends: 1. Mainly consolidation, without a deep correction. With 27100 as the central platform, it will then hit 28000-28500 upward; 2. The market will make a slight deep correction to the 26500-26600 line, the MACD in the 4h chart will cross, and then the market will continue to rise to around 28000, a 4H double top, and then the market will maintain 26000 -28000 shock trend. From a trading strategy point of view, the current price/performance ratio of trading at 27230 is very low and it is difficult to make a move, so just hold on to your own hands and wait and see. Maybe the ten-year dream is not like some bloggers who kill each other in the K-line every day, making money even if they are long, and making money even if they are empty, and are very busy every day; I have also experienced these experiences, but I found that I might be like this The operation will have a very high rate of return for a period of time, but the final outcome will be a total loss. Because trading is addictive, people who don’t have a list will feel very uncomfortable and uncomfortable. This also reminds me of the words of my futures enlightenment master: Do more and you will make more mistakes, do less and you will make more mistakes, and don’t do better.There is no shortage of opportunities in the market, but you are afraid that when the opportunity comes, you will have lost all your principal and there will be no chance at all.

1. Macroeconomic data: JOLTS job vacancies in the United States fell to the lowest in more than two years in July more than expected, and consumer confidence in the Conference Board fell significantly in August, all of which reduced the pressure on the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates; after the data were released, the market became dovish on the probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates. Paid Adjustment - Traders now see a 56% chance of a 25 basis point rate hike in November, down from 75% on Tuesday. At the same time, swap contracts showed expectations for a Fed rate cut were brought forward to June from July. U.S. stocks rose for three consecutive days and closed at daily highs. The Dow rose nearly 300 points, the Nasdaq rose 1.7%, Tesla rose nearly 8%, Nvidia rose more than 4% to a new high, and the spot Bitcoin ETF was approved. Hopes surged, causing Coinbase to rise 15%. %. After the financial report, Pinduoduo rose by more than 15%, Tiger Brokers rose by more than 28%, and NIO fell by 14% before closing down by more than 1%. The 2-year U.S. Treasury yield fell 16 basis points from its daily high, and the 10-year yield fell as much as 14 basis points. The U.S. dollar index fell below 104, the Japanese yen fell to 147 and hit a nine-and-a-half-month low before turning higher. The offshore RMB rose by more than 100 points to reach 7.28 yuan, and Bitcoin rose by 7% and hovered at US$28,000.