LIVE橙子_研究院
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微博同名-：橙子_研究院-2015 年入圈，拥有 8年投资经验的Crypto老玩家，BTC长期信仰者，分享对 加密赛道 & 传统市场经济走向的观察并提供统计数据及操作建议，希望对您的策略有所帮助。
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AI, Depin, RWA tracks, looking for 100x coins
#Ai赛道 #RWA赛道 #depins
Let’s talk about the big market first. Bitcoin has ended its unilateral rise since it continued to reach new highs of 73,777, and has undergone a correction of more than 13,000 dollars. The magnitude is still quite large. I know that many friends are quite panicked. ! Don’t panic. At present, this is just a normal retracement of an excessive rise. There are no pessimistic expectations about whether the market will fail or how deep the market will fall. The market made a second exploration on the 20th. The action has not broken the previous low, and the signs of stopping the decline are relatively obvious. It is expected that it will continue to hit new highs after the shock. It is estimated that the two positions it may reach are the 75620 and 80120 lines. Even from a very cautious point of view, as long as Bitcoin holds the dividing line of 61,000, we can all be optimistic about the upside. At this stage, there is no need to scare yourself, just hold on to the chips in your hand. In fact, looking at most of the altcoins, there are buy signals indicating the end of the adjustment. I personally judge that the performance of the altcoins in the next week will be relatively good, and the profit-making effect will be better.
Let’s talk about the big market first. Bitcoin has ended its unilateral rise since it continued to reach new highs of 73,777, and has undergone a correction of more than 13,000 dollars. The magnitude is still quite large. I know that many friends are quite panicked. ! Don’t panic. At present, this is just a normal retracement of an excessive rise. There are no pessimistic expectations about whether the market will fail or how deep the market will fall. The market made a second exploration on the 20th. The action has not broken the previous low, and the signs of stopping the decline are relatively obvious. It is expected that it will continue to hit new highs after the shock. It is estimated that the two positions it may reach are the 75620 and 80120 lines. Even from a very cautious point of view, as long as Bitcoin holds the dividing line of 61,000, we can all be optimistic about the upside. At this stage, there is no need to scare yourself, just hold on to the chips in your hand. In fact, looking at most of the altcoins, there are buy signals indicating the end of the adjustment. I personally judge that the performance of the altcoins in the next week will be relatively good, and the profit-making effect will be better.
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#大盘走势
If the Ethereum exchange rate hits a new low, there will be a problem. The altcoins have been sucked dry. If this continues, even if the next round of market rises, only a part of them can outperform Bitcoin.
The only antidote for the altcoins is to start the money printing machine, but to start the money printing machine, the economy must collapse once, which is very embarrassing.
If this is the script, I just hope that everyone can survive.
If the money printing machine is not turned on, and the interest rate is simply lowered, it is likely to be this structural market. It is estimated that the performance of the coins in those tracks will be better, and the other coins will only have an average increase.
This round of market will eliminate the last few remaining retail investors, and Bitcoin will be similar to the nature of a US stock in the future.
Brothers, how do you view the later market! ?
$ETH
If the Ethereum exchange rate hits a new low, there will be a problem. The altcoins have been sucked dry. If this continues, even if the next round of market rises, only a part of them can outperform Bitcoin.
The only antidote for the altcoins is to start the money printing machine, but to start the money printing machine, the economy must collapse once, which is very embarrassing.
If this is the script, I just hope that everyone can survive.
If the money printing machine is not turned on, and the interest rate is simply lowered, it is likely to be this structural market. It is estimated that the performance of the coins in those tracks will be better, and the other coins will only have an average increase.
This round of market will eliminate the last few remaining retail investors, and Bitcoin will be similar to the nature of a US stock in the future.
Brothers, how do you view the later market! ?
$ETH
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Market Trends
#大盘走势
After breaking through the 63,000 support, Bitcoin entered a new round of adjustment, and there is no sign of ending yet. From the weekly chart, last week's long shadow engulfed the previous positive line, and this week has not closed with a long lower shadow so far. It is very likely to form a downward relay pattern...
Back to the daily chart, there are divergences between the big and small cycles, but without the pressure of news and the drag of the US stock market over the weekend, the rebound is still weak. Fortunately, it pulled up before closing the weekly line, and the shape looks better. There are two relatively important pressure points above, 58,000 and 61,000. When it rebounds here, you can pay attention to the short-term chips. After the rebound, the probability of continuing to go down is still relatively large. In terms of position, if it goes down, the first target will be to test the previous low, that is, the support strength of the 49,000 line. This can be regarded as the second test after the 49,000 pin. Personally, I think it can be supported here, but whether it can be used as a reversal position depends on the impact of the external financial market and news. The entire market is suppressed by the recession cloud that may appear due to the interest rate cut. Investors in risky assets have also turned from optimism to caution. Many funds continue to flee. The problem of liquidity has caused the cottage to go bearish all the way! So, assuming that there is no black swan, under normal trends, where will the extreme decline of the cake be? Our judgment is that it is not far from the current time, and the possibility of stopping the decline in the 42,000~44,000 range is very high.
After breaking through the 63,000 support, Bitcoin entered a new round of adjustment, and there is no sign of ending yet. From the weekly chart, last week's long shadow engulfed the previous positive line, and this week has not closed with a long lower shadow so far. It is very likely to form a downward relay pattern...
Back to the daily chart, there are divergences between the big and small cycles, but without the pressure of news and the drag of the US stock market over the weekend, the rebound is still weak. Fortunately, it pulled up before closing the weekly line, and the shape looks better. There are two relatively important pressure points above, 58,000 and 61,000. When it rebounds here, you can pay attention to the short-term chips. After the rebound, the probability of continuing to go down is still relatively large. In terms of position, if it goes down, the first target will be to test the previous low, that is, the support strength of the 49,000 line. This can be regarded as the second test after the 49,000 pin. Personally, I think it can be supported here, but whether it can be used as a reversal position depends on the impact of the external financial market and news. The entire market is suppressed by the recession cloud that may appear due to the interest rate cut. Investors in risky assets have also turned from optimism to caution. Many funds continue to flee. The problem of liquidity has caused the cottage to go bearish all the way! So, assuming that there is no black swan, under normal trends, where will the extreme decline of the cake be? Our judgment is that it is not far from the current time, and the possibility of stopping the decline in the 42,000~44,000 range is very high.
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#大盘走势
It has reached the expected value. Let's see how this rebound is. The strength of this rebound is related to the overall trend expectations in the future.
$BTC
It has reached the expected value. Let's see how this rebound is. The strength of this rebound is related to the overall trend expectations in the future.
$BTC
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#大盘走势
Whether there will be a market in the next few months, the position of 62,000 US dollars is very critical. The current expectation is that it will rebound after falling back to 5.5w-5.6w. The height and strength of this rebound wave will determine the market in the later period. Some ideas are shown in the figure for your reference
$BTC
Whether there will be a market in the next few months, the position of 62,000 US dollars is very critical. The current expectation is that it will rebound after falling back to 5.5w-5.6w. The height and strength of this rebound wave will determine the market in the later period. Some ideas are shown in the figure for your reference
$BTC
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#大盘走势
Whether there will be a market in the next few months, the position of 62,000 US dollars is very critical. The current expectation is that it will rebound after falling back to 5.5w-5.6w. The height and strength of this rebound wave will determine the market in the later period. Some ideas are shown in the figure for your reference
$BTC
Whether there will be a market in the next few months, the position of 62,000 US dollars is very critical. The current expectation is that it will rebound after falling back to 5.5w-5.6w. The height and strength of this rebound wave will determine the market in the later period. Some ideas are shown in the figure for your reference
$BTC
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#大盘走势
Let me briefly talk about the market. Since the big cake broke through the strong pressure of 62800, it hit the pressure level of 65000. It is now sideways after retreating. The fluctuation range is narrow, and there is a trend of sideways instead of falling. The trend is not weak and relatively healthy.
From the weekly line, after the long needle bottomed out, it closed with a cross star, and then closed with a big positive line, which is stronger than we expected. From the weekly line structure, it has not finished rising. The overall price is still optimistic this week. From a small structural perspective, the callback caused by the hourly divergence in the past two days is normal. The key position depends on whether it will effectively fall below the 62500~63000 range. If it stabilizes above the range in the past few days, it is not impossible to hit the area above 69000.
The only annoying thing is that Ethereum is still weaker than Bitcoin, and the more reliable support is relatively low, at 2636, which causes the callback of the cottage to be a little larger. However, in the end, Bitcoin will be the main focus. If Bitcoin does not break 62500~63000, there is no need to worry. The cottage is something that falls quickly and rises quickly, just following the general trend.
In my opinion, the closer to 63,000, the better the entry position. For those who didn't dare to buy because of the high price a few days ago, you can consider the retracement position with a relatively high profit and loss ratio. If there is a problem, the stop loss is not big, just put it below 62,000. If it rises, it is likely to be a profit of 30 to 50 points.
In terms of sectors, considering that the certainty of the rise of Bitcoin is relatively large, and the Bitcoin ecosystem is in the first sequence of rise when this big rebound starts, you can consider buying this sector during the retracement. STX, RIF, CKB and Inscription Three Fools are OK. The second is the AI sector, which is mainly based on FET and LPT. FET has not been hyped after the merger, and the potential is still quite sufficient! LPT has strong financial strength and is also very fierce when it pulls up. The AI sector, combined with the expected support of Nvidia's financial report, is likely to have a stronger trend than the market. Finally, there is the sol ecological currency. In the face of the negative news of the rejection of the ETF, sol has not seen a big drop. If it does not fall, it will rise. Therefore, this sector cannot be bearish. WIF, JUP, JTO and sol itself can all be laid out. By the way, CZ seems to be released from prison next month. Binance Chain has also been making continuous moves recently. BNB, Cake, and Burger are also worth paying attention to.
$SOL $FET
Let me briefly talk about the market. Since the big cake broke through the strong pressure of 62800, it hit the pressure level of 65000. It is now sideways after retreating. The fluctuation range is narrow, and there is a trend of sideways instead of falling. The trend is not weak and relatively healthy.
From the weekly line, after the long needle bottomed out, it closed with a cross star, and then closed with a big positive line, which is stronger than we expected. From the weekly line structure, it has not finished rising. The overall price is still optimistic this week. From a small structural perspective, the callback caused by the hourly divergence in the past two days is normal. The key position depends on whether it will effectively fall below the 62500~63000 range. If it stabilizes above the range in the past few days, it is not impossible to hit the area above 69000.
The only annoying thing is that Ethereum is still weaker than Bitcoin, and the more reliable support is relatively low, at 2636, which causes the callback of the cottage to be a little larger. However, in the end, Bitcoin will be the main focus. If Bitcoin does not break 62500~63000, there is no need to worry. The cottage is something that falls quickly and rises quickly, just following the general trend.
In my opinion, the closer to 63,000, the better the entry position. For those who didn't dare to buy because of the high price a few days ago, you can consider the retracement position with a relatively high profit and loss ratio. If there is a problem, the stop loss is not big, just put it below 62,000. If it rises, it is likely to be a profit of 30 to 50 points.
In terms of sectors, considering that the certainty of the rise of Bitcoin is relatively large, and the Bitcoin ecosystem is in the first sequence of rise when this big rebound starts, you can consider buying this sector during the retracement. STX, RIF, CKB and Inscription Three Fools are OK. The second is the AI sector, which is mainly based on FET and LPT. FET has not been hyped after the merger, and the potential is still quite sufficient! LPT has strong financial strength and is also very fierce when it pulls up. The AI sector, combined with the expected support of Nvidia's financial report, is likely to have a stronger trend than the market. Finally, there is the sol ecological currency. In the face of the negative news of the rejection of the ETF, sol has not seen a big drop. If it does not fall, it will rise. Therefore, this sector cannot be bearish. WIF, JUP, JTO and sol itself can all be laid out. By the way, CZ seems to be released from prison next month. Binance Chain has also been making continuous moves recently. BNB, Cake, and Burger are also worth paying attention to.
$SOL $FET
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#大盘走势
There are two ideas at present, all of which are mainly based on market analysis
1. The big cake is actually very ugly, it can go up or down. Now we can only guess that it will break 57,000 and buy a lot. If it breaks the previous low point, there will be a four-hour bottom divergence. As long as it is not broken by a big negative line, it is a safer buying point. If 56,000 is effectively broken, you must run. The defense is placed at 56,000. If it breaks, the retracement will accelerate and it will be stepped deeper
2. Breaking through 57,000 will stop the decline, and then hit 62,000, and then 64,000; if it breaks through 64,000 and stands firm, it is very likely to meet at 70,000
It mainly depends on the two points of 56,000 and 64,000. Only after going out of these two positions can we choose the direction
External factors: Mentougou and the Federal Reserve
$BTC
There are two ideas at present, all of which are mainly based on market analysis
1. The big cake is actually very ugly, it can go up or down. Now we can only guess that it will break 57,000 and buy a lot. If it breaks the previous low point, there will be a four-hour bottom divergence. As long as it is not broken by a big negative line, it is a safer buying point. If 56,000 is effectively broken, you must run. The defense is placed at 56,000. If it breaks, the retracement will accelerate and it will be stepped deeper
2. Breaking through 57,000 will stop the decline, and then hit 62,000, and then 64,000; if it breaks through 64,000 and stands firm, it is very likely to meet at 70,000
It mainly depends on the two points of 56,000 and 64,000. Only after going out of these two positions can we choose the direction
External factors: Mentougou and the Federal Reserve
$BTC
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Market trend: Taking off and wanting to land? !
#大盘走势
There is a signal in the recent market that is worth paying attention to. A few days ago, the United States announced the CPI, which was lower than market expectations. It was obviously a positive factor, but the bitcoin price did not rise but fell instead, which is puzzling!
In fact, if you think about it carefully, this problem is not difficult to explain. The current financial pressure caused by the US interest rate hike is already unbearable, and interest rate cuts are the general trend. The market expectations for a rate cut in September have been fully raised, and the only difference is a cut of 25 points or 50 points.
We have talked about what interest rate cuts are long ago. Interest rate cuts are a means of solving problems and a regulatory tool when signs of economic recession appear. Therefore, the market's sensitivity has shifted from interest rate cuts to concerns about economic recession. With this explanation, it is easy for everyone to understand why Mr. Ba wants to sell off a large number of US stocks and hold a huge amount of cash, and understand the logic of why the market ignores good news and falls instead. The next data will be very critical. If the interest rate is cut by 50 points, the signal is self-evident, and funds will continue to flee in a hurry. If it is 25 points, it will be relatively mild.
There is a signal in the recent market that is worth paying attention to. A few days ago, the United States announced the CPI, which was lower than market expectations. It was obviously a positive factor, but the bitcoin price did not rise but fell instead, which is puzzling!
In fact, if you think about it carefully, this problem is not difficult to explain. The current financial pressure caused by the US interest rate hike is already unbearable, and interest rate cuts are the general trend. The market expectations for a rate cut in September have been fully raised, and the only difference is a cut of 25 points or 50 points.
We have talked about what interest rate cuts are long ago. Interest rate cuts are a means of solving problems and a regulatory tool when signs of economic recession appear. Therefore, the market's sensitivity has shifted from interest rate cuts to concerns about economic recession. With this explanation, it is easy for everyone to understand why Mr. Ba wants to sell off a large number of US stocks and hold a huge amount of cash, and understand the logic of why the market ignores good news and falls instead. The next data will be very critical. If the interest rate is cut by 50 points, the signal is self-evident, and funds will continue to flee in a hurry. If it is 25 points, it will be relatively mild.
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SOL King Returns
August 5th was another day that will go down in history. Global financial markets collapsed across the board. Nvidia plunged 14% in the night session. The stock markets in Japan and South Korea were even more tragic than ever before. The crypto market was no exception. The price of Bitcoin once fell below $50,000, and Ethereum plunged more than 25%, wiping out all gains for the year...
We are also very depressed. We have been predicting that a black swan will appear, but the rhythm and sequence have deviated. We originally estimated that it would appear before or after the actual implementation of the interest rate cut. Who would have thought that as soon as the news of a rate cut in September began to blow, Buffett took the lead in selling stocks. The chain reaction caused smart money to flee collectively, and the financial markets of various countries became as fragile as glass and shattered at the first blow!
We are also very depressed. We have been predicting that a black swan will appear, but the rhythm and sequence have deviated. We originally estimated that it would appear before or after the actual implementation of the interest rate cut. Who would have thought that as soon as the news of a rate cut in September began to blow, Buffett took the lead in selling stocks. The chain reaction caused smart money to flee collectively, and the financial markets of various countries became as fragile as glass and shattered at the first blow!
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#大盘走势
Let's review the content of the previous analysis. Recently, we have been reminding everyone to hold on to the chips in their hands. The market will continue. Long-term players can hold the currency without fear of fluctuations. It is also mentioned that the time when the Ethereum ETF is landed for trading is the day when the good news is landed and the highs fall back. It is also mentioned that the next hot spot is likely to be the ETF expectation of hyping SOL, focusing on its ecological currency. Looking back, it has basically come true, especially jup, jto, wif, bome and other SOL-related currencies. The recent increase is gratifying. I just don't know if everyone has grasped it as expected.
From the current market, it seems to be entering a watershed state again. First of all, let's talk about Bitcoin. The chip pressure in the range of 70,000 to 71,000 above Bitcoin is very huge. It is normal for the impact to fail, but the decline has exceeded our original expectations. It is currently at the bottom of this round of rising channel, and there is a possibility of breaking it. Fortunately, the 63,000 line below is a relatively strong support. It is likely to turn into a shock here, and it is highly unlikely to fall smoothly.
Let's look at Ethereum again. The trend is obviously stronger than Bitcoin. I don't know if the ETF buff has begun to work. After touching the suppression, it did not fall sharply, but there were impacts for two days, and there is a possibility of crossing or even breaking through the suppression! In other words, differentiation is about to appear again, which is good news for altcoins.
Finally, let’s look at altcoins. Many currencies have returned to important support or starting points to rebound. They have been fully adjusted and have strong demand for rebound. Combined with the previous analysis of Ethereum, if Ethereum can be relatively strong and withstand the pressure of the big cake callback, then the trend of altcoins in the future is still worth looking forward to.
Let’s talk about the macro side. At present, the possibility of a rate cut in September is the strongest. Before the official rate cut, the market will have a positive reaction to future favorable expectations, and this reaction will continue until the news is landed, that is, after the real rate cut begins. All signs indicate that the opportunity for small currencies seems to be coming! Of course, in view of the hard injury of insufficient market liquidity, the internal differentiation of small currencies will continue. In terms of sector selection, it is recommended to refer to the logic of the strong getting stronger. The space for strong varieties with funds will be larger, such as the SOL ecosystem... The next trend will be more frequent. Don’t do contracts and just take the spot.
Let's review the content of the previous analysis. Recently, we have been reminding everyone to hold on to the chips in their hands. The market will continue. Long-term players can hold the currency without fear of fluctuations. It is also mentioned that the time when the Ethereum ETF is landed for trading is the day when the good news is landed and the highs fall back. It is also mentioned that the next hot spot is likely to be the ETF expectation of hyping SOL, focusing on its ecological currency. Looking back, it has basically come true, especially jup, jto, wif, bome and other SOL-related currencies. The recent increase is gratifying. I just don't know if everyone has grasped it as expected.
From the current market, it seems to be entering a watershed state again. First of all, let's talk about Bitcoin. The chip pressure in the range of 70,000 to 71,000 above Bitcoin is very huge. It is normal for the impact to fail, but the decline has exceeded our original expectations. It is currently at the bottom of this round of rising channel, and there is a possibility of breaking it. Fortunately, the 63,000 line below is a relatively strong support. It is likely to turn into a shock here, and it is highly unlikely to fall smoothly.
Let's look at Ethereum again. The trend is obviously stronger than Bitcoin. I don't know if the ETF buff has begun to work. After touching the suppression, it did not fall sharply, but there were impacts for two days, and there is a possibility of crossing or even breaking through the suppression! In other words, differentiation is about to appear again, which is good news for altcoins.
Finally, let’s look at altcoins. Many currencies have returned to important support or starting points to rebound. They have been fully adjusted and have strong demand for rebound. Combined with the previous analysis of Ethereum, if Ethereum can be relatively strong and withstand the pressure of the big cake callback, then the trend of altcoins in the future is still worth looking forward to.
Let’s talk about the macro side. At present, the possibility of a rate cut in September is the strongest. Before the official rate cut, the market will have a positive reaction to future favorable expectations, and this reaction will continue until the news is landed, that is, after the real rate cut begins. All signs indicate that the opportunity for small currencies seems to be coming! Of course, in view of the hard injury of insufficient market liquidity, the internal differentiation of small currencies will continue. In terms of sector selection, it is recommended to refer to the logic of the strong getting stronger. The space for strong varieties with funds will be larger, such as the SOL ecosystem... The next trend will be more frequent. Don’t do contracts and just take the spot.
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Market Trends
#大盘走势
Let me briefly talk about the market. In the last article, we mentioned that the position of around 54,000 was not far from the bottom, and we told everyone to buy more as the price drops. Don't chase the rise and sell the fall, don't be overly bearish, hold on to the coins if you have them, and pay attention to covering your positions if you have free positions. Just yesterday, Bitcoin broke through the trend line pressure that had been suppressing it for a long time and stood above 60,000, which started a rebound as we expected.
At present, the upper pressure level is relatively clear, which is at 64920. The pressure here is still relatively large. Pay attention to the decline after touching it. However, from the perspective of Ethereum, there are obvious signs of the main force absorbing funds on the disk recently. The on-chain data led by Sun Ge is also constantly increasing its holdings. It is obvious that they are planning the Ethereum ETF market. The altcoins have also adjusted sufficiently, and most of them have fallen back to the key support range. A wave of market is ready to move, and the differentiation trend will start again... In the face of such a situation, I think it is still necessary to decide the strategy according to your own operating style. If you are a short-term thinker, it is definitely okay to reduce your position when you encounter heavy pressure. If you are a long-term investor, you can endure repeated shocks just to fight for a bigger market in the future, then continuing to hold positions and waiting is also the right choice! In a word, you can choose the operating strategy according to your different operating styles! Because in the general direction, the market is likely to be in a relatively early stage, and there will be more stories to tell in the future!
Let me briefly talk about the market. In the last article, we mentioned that the position of around 54,000 was not far from the bottom, and we told everyone to buy more as the price drops. Don't chase the rise and sell the fall, don't be overly bearish, hold on to the coins if you have them, and pay attention to covering your positions if you have free positions. Just yesterday, Bitcoin broke through the trend line pressure that had been suppressing it for a long time and stood above 60,000, which started a rebound as we expected.
At present, the upper pressure level is relatively clear, which is at 64920. The pressure here is still relatively large. Pay attention to the decline after touching it. However, from the perspective of Ethereum, there are obvious signs of the main force absorbing funds on the disk recently. The on-chain data led by Sun Ge is also constantly increasing its holdings. It is obvious that they are planning the Ethereum ETF market. The altcoins have also adjusted sufficiently, and most of them have fallen back to the key support range. A wave of market is ready to move, and the differentiation trend will start again... In the face of such a situation, I think it is still necessary to decide the strategy according to your own operating style. If you are a short-term thinker, it is definitely okay to reduce your position when you encounter heavy pressure. If you are a long-term investor, you can endure repeated shocks just to fight for a bigger market in the future, then continuing to hold positions and waiting is also the right choice! In a word, you can choose the operating strategy according to your different operating styles! Because in the general direction, the market is likely to be in a relatively early stage, and there will be more stories to tell in the future!
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Big Trend Views
Let me first state a point of view. This round of market started from 15,500 to a new high of 73,777. This market has been subverting everyone's habits and cognition. Repeated differentiation has become the main theme, and the money-making effect is extremely poor. The bull market belongs to the big pie, but 90% of the investors in the market will not buy the big pie. They basically rush into the copycat and expect the history of the copycat season to repeat itself. As a result, except for a few individual sectors, the rest were wiped out!
So I have been thinking about a question. Is it possible that the bull market we are seeing is not a real bull market, but just a big rebound passively stimulated by Bitcoin under specific circumstances (institutional allocation, ETF). When some people in the market start to shout that the bear market is coming, perhaps the real bull market has not yet started?
So I have been thinking about a question. Is it possible that the bull market we are seeing is not a real bull market, but just a big rebound passively stimulated by Bitcoin under specific circumstances (institutional allocation, ETF). When some people in the market start to shout that the bear market is coming, perhaps the real bull market has not yet started?
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Market trend expectations
In the past two days, Bitcoin has continued to fall under the shadow of the Mentougou compensation and some government sales and cash-out news. Today, it fell to a low of 56,771, a recent low.
Ethereum was hit by the negative impact of the failure of the ETF to go online on July 2, and its trend weakened and it fell to 3088. The Ethereum ecosystem currencies followed suit... After reviewing the market, we did not lock in the profits in time when the chips we covered made money. In the end, we suffered losses due to our over-optimism about Ethereum ETH. Drawing on the experience of the Bitcoin ETF, we had too much hope that Ethereum would remain strong. With frequent negative news and repeated differentiation in the market, the copycat could not withstand Ethereum, and Ethereum could not withstand Bitcoin, and the profit turned into loss... Differentiation is a very important feature of this round of market, and it is also the root cause of why this round of market is so difficult to play...
Ethereum was hit by the negative impact of the failure of the ETF to go online on July 2, and its trend weakened and it fell to 3088. The Ethereum ecosystem currencies followed suit... After reviewing the market, we did not lock in the profits in time when the chips we covered made money. In the end, we suffered losses due to our over-optimism about Ethereum ETH. Drawing on the experience of the Bitcoin ETF, we had too much hope that Ethereum would remain strong. With frequent negative news and repeated differentiation in the market, the copycat could not withstand Ethereum, and Ethereum could not withstand Bitcoin, and the profit turned into loss... Differentiation is a very important feature of this round of market, and it is also the root cause of why this round of market is so difficult to play...
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#大盘走势
On the 21st, Bitcoin broke through the major support of 64500, and fell to 63379 at its lowest point. Fortunately, it did not directly break through the 63200~62800 chip-intensive area, and then started to rebound.
Bitcoin's trend has been relatively weak in the past few days. The Nasdaq, which has the highest correlation with its trend, has continued to hit new highs, which makes people depressed... Overall, Bitcoin is still within the normal adjustment range, with a short pressure of 64700 above and support of 63200. It is weak and oscillating. At present, there is no sign of a direct sharp decline, but it should be noted that if it falls below the 63200~62800 area and is not recovered on the same day, the risk of waterfalls will increase rapidly!
Let's look at Ethereum again. Its trend is obviously stronger than Bitcoin, and it has not even hit a new low in the adjustment. This is the benefit of having funds to take care of it! As July is approaching, various funds continue to deploy Ethereum, waiting for the window for Ethereum ETF to be launched for trading. Therefore, once a big drop occurs, funds will come in to buy the bottom, making it a bit difficult to fall!
We have repeatedly emphasized recently that we should focus on the layout of the Ethereum ecosystem. Even if this sector falls, it cannot be trapped. Once the trend is slightly stable or there is a good news, it will be pulled up by a positive line. It is the track with the highest cost performance. Facts have proved that this is also the case. When many currencies are still constantly testing new lows, ens, ldo, ssv and other currencies have basically recovered most of the decline in this wave, and they are extremely strong!
In the next trend, as long as the big cake does not die for us, Ethereum's strength will continue to be maintained, and it can also slow down the decline of the altcoin to a certain extent. And after stabilizing, continue to differentiate, the strong will always be strong! For us, the positions have been laid out almost, be patient, and hold the currency for the rise!
$LDO $ETH
On the 21st, Bitcoin broke through the major support of 64500, and fell to 63379 at its lowest point. Fortunately, it did not directly break through the 63200~62800 chip-intensive area, and then started to rebound.
Bitcoin's trend has been relatively weak in the past few days. The Nasdaq, which has the highest correlation with its trend, has continued to hit new highs, which makes people depressed... Overall, Bitcoin is still within the normal adjustment range, with a short pressure of 64700 above and support of 63200. It is weak and oscillating. At present, there is no sign of a direct sharp decline, but it should be noted that if it falls below the 63200~62800 area and is not recovered on the same day, the risk of waterfalls will increase rapidly!
Let's look at Ethereum again. Its trend is obviously stronger than Bitcoin, and it has not even hit a new low in the adjustment. This is the benefit of having funds to take care of it! As July is approaching, various funds continue to deploy Ethereum, waiting for the window for Ethereum ETF to be launched for trading. Therefore, once a big drop occurs, funds will come in to buy the bottom, making it a bit difficult to fall!
We have repeatedly emphasized recently that we should focus on the layout of the Ethereum ecosystem. Even if this sector falls, it cannot be trapped. Once the trend is slightly stable or there is a good news, it will be pulled up by a positive line. It is the track with the highest cost performance. Facts have proved that this is also the case. When many currencies are still constantly testing new lows, ens, ldo, ssv and other currencies have basically recovered most of the decline in this wave, and they are extremely strong!
In the next trend, as long as the big cake does not die for us, Ethereum's strength will continue to be maintained, and it can also slow down the decline of the altcoin to a certain extent. And after stabilizing, continue to differentiate, the strong will always be strong! For us, the positions have been laid out almost, be patient, and hold the currency for the rise!
$LDO $ETH
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#大盘走势
The recent market operation is difficult, mainly due to the serious differentiation between Bitcoin, Ethereum and altcoins. The Bitcoin and even Ethereum graphs are normal corrections. Look at the altcoins, many of which have hit recent lows, and the market is in mourning!
We notified everyone to reduce their positions on the 29th, and notified everyone to replenish their positions when the market fell sharply on the 13th. The CPI data on the 14th was positive, and the market rose sharply. Unfortunately, Master Bao did not talk about the interest rate cut in the later meeting, which led to a decrease in the market's expectations for interest rate cuts and another wave of declines. But overall, the problem is not big. Although the US interest rate cut schedule failed, our entry position is low, and there is a safety margin in price. Bitcoin will touch important support when it goes down to 64,500. In addition, the altcoins are seriously oversold, and many of them are also approaching important support levels. Therefore, the possibility of a sharp rebound at 64,500 is still very high.
At present, the popularity index of altcoins has also been falling straight down, as low as around 18, and it is beginning to approach the historical bottom, and the contract fee rate has a large area of negative values. In addition, the news about Ethereum ETF is gradually increasing, and the trend of touching 3350 will also be a strong support. In summary, the big rebound will not be far away, and the positions in hand will be held. The only thing to note is that after the big rebound, you still need to reduce your position, because at present, it is possible for the big cake to reach a new high, but after the new high, there will be a larger level of deviation, which must be prevented. We just need to know it in our hearts!
In terms of currency, we still consider the deterministic plate layout of Ethereum ecology. There is only so much money in the market. Before the interest rate cut comes in, funds can only selectively enter the currency. The liquidity of other currencies is greatly lacking, so they will rise a little bit, and there will be no bottom line when they fall.
The most certain thing in the next stage is Ethereum ETF, and you must have some in your hands! Next is the fully circulated meme coin, and the rwa track. The funds here are repeatedly active, and they are the best targets for bottom-fishing when the market falls sharply!
$LDO $BOME
The recent market operation is difficult, mainly due to the serious differentiation between Bitcoin, Ethereum and altcoins. The Bitcoin and even Ethereum graphs are normal corrections. Look at the altcoins, many of which have hit recent lows, and the market is in mourning!
We notified everyone to reduce their positions on the 29th, and notified everyone to replenish their positions when the market fell sharply on the 13th. The CPI data on the 14th was positive, and the market rose sharply. Unfortunately, Master Bao did not talk about the interest rate cut in the later meeting, which led to a decrease in the market's expectations for interest rate cuts and another wave of declines. But overall, the problem is not big. Although the US interest rate cut schedule failed, our entry position is low, and there is a safety margin in price. Bitcoin will touch important support when it goes down to 64,500. In addition, the altcoins are seriously oversold, and many of them are also approaching important support levels. Therefore, the possibility of a sharp rebound at 64,500 is still very high.
At present, the popularity index of altcoins has also been falling straight down, as low as around 18, and it is beginning to approach the historical bottom, and the contract fee rate has a large area of negative values. In addition, the news about Ethereum ETF is gradually increasing, and the trend of touching 3350 will also be a strong support. In summary, the big rebound will not be far away, and the positions in hand will be held. The only thing to note is that after the big rebound, you still need to reduce your position, because at present, it is possible for the big cake to reach a new high, but after the new high, there will be a larger level of deviation, which must be prevented. We just need to know it in our hearts!
In terms of currency, we still consider the deterministic plate layout of Ethereum ecology. There is only so much money in the market. Before the interest rate cut comes in, funds can only selectively enter the currency. The liquidity of other currencies is greatly lacking, so they will rise a little bit, and there will be no bottom line when they fall.
The most certain thing in the next stage is Ethereum ETF, and you must have some in your hands! Next is the fully circulated meme coin, and the rwa track. The funds here are repeatedly active, and they are the best targets for bottom-fishing when the market falls sharply!
$LDO $BOME
See original
#美联储利率决策即将公布
Some high-level positions avoided a 20%-30% retracement. At present, the price-performance ratio is still good for covering at this position. The Ethereum ETF has been approved. It depends on when the transaction will be carried out. Then the narrative of the relevant sectors is worth looking forward to.
$LDO $ENA
Some high-level positions avoided a 20%-30% retracement. At present, the price-performance ratio is still good for covering at this position. The Ethereum ETF has been approved. It depends on when the transaction will be carried out. Then the narrative of the relevant sectors is worth looking forward to.
$LDO $ENA
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