Next, it should be the turn of the cottage! Because since this round of bull market, it has basically been the big cake that has been leading the trend. With the support of funds approved by ETF, the big money has been leading the trend. The cottage, even Ethereum, has not kept up with the pace. As a result, many cottage targets with good value have been hovering at the bottom for a long time. The sectors that need attention are: the MEME sector where VC and retail investors are in opposition due to the bull market that does not take over each other. You can focus on: PEOPLE PEPE FLOKI is relatively strong. Among them, PEOPLE should have greater hype value. First, its market value is relatively low. Second, it has the hype value of organized crowdfunding in the US election. Secondly, its market value is relatively low.
In addition, you can pay attention to BOME, which has a relatively low market value on the SOLNA chain. It has been in the bottom consolidation and accumulation stage for a long time since its listing. It has the opportunity to replicate the trend structure of PEPE. I went to Hong Kong to meet the project party of FLOKI, and I was not disappointed!

❗❗❗Cryptocurrency Market Q1 Outlook

At the beginning of the new year, the cryptocurrency market is turbulent, with many key events and timelines outlining the investment landscape for Q1.

On the Ethereum side, ETH staking activities in January and the Prague upgrade in March, according to past patterns, tend to trigger market speculation in advance. Currently, Ethereum's price performance is strong compared to Bitcoin, which has tested the low of December 20. The potential for future explosive growth is even more anticipated, and it could even lead to a surge in altcoins.

Looking at the macro level, the Federal Reserve will hold a policy meeting on January 24, January 20 marks Trump's inauguration day, and Japan will also hold a policy meeting on January 29. The release of concentrated global policy signals will have a significant impact on market sentiment. However, February will enter a gap period for policy meetings, coinciding with the A-share market's closure. Historically, this period often gives rise to a strong upward trend, making it a “money-printing machine” period for bulls in Q1, not to be missed.

From Bitcoin's historical performance, except for the declines on January 1 in 2015 and 2018, most January 1st have generally ended with gains, adding a bit of optimistic expectation to the market. Opportunities in the cryptocurrency market for Q1 seem to be brewing and fermenting.

❗❗❗Bitcoin and Cryptocurrency Market Outlook and Position Planning

On December 31st, the significant drop after the U.S. stock market opened dragged down BTC, which is also a risk asset. However, on-chain data shows two major trends: first, stablecoins are flowing in for bottom-fishing, and second, over 5,000 BTC have flowed into Binance and Coinbase. Regarding ETFs, apart from BlackRock and FBTC data not being released, other ETFs have seen outflows of $200 million.

This correction mainly stems from two aspects: a normal pullback after a substantial prior increase and market fluctuations following the release of expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut. However, from a broader trend perspective, there are many positive factors: first, the Federal Reserve is in a rate-cutting cycle, with a high probability of three rate cuts in 2025, likely in March, June, and September; second, Trump is about to take office, and the expectation of BTC being included in national reserves still exists; third, in the long term, BTC consensus continues to rise, and the tariff policies after Trump takes office will encourage other central banks to buy BTC, while the pressure of U.S. debt will also solidify BTC's position.

Currently, BTC is facing the 60-day moving average and has adjusted for three weeks. A significant rebound is expected after New Year's Day, with hopes of returning to $100,000.

In terms of position planning, allocate Ethereum and Solana spot, and low-leverage contracts in currency-based positions are also necessary. Focus on leading altcoins that align with the upcoming altcoin season, prioritizing coins related to U.S. institutions. The preferred altcoins include UNI, ENA, GALA, PEPE, AAVE, BONK, LINK, AVAX, RENDER, CRV.

As for entry points, first lay out 50% of the position, and for the remaining 50%, follow the principle of 'buy small on small dips, buy large on large dips, and do not buy when it does not dip.' Increase positions by 3 points for mainstream coins and by 5 points for altcoins on dips. In the worst-case scenario, fill the position before New Year's Eve. #币安MegadropSOLV #币安LaunchpoolBIO预测

❗❗❗BTC Market Outlook: Downward Momentum, Rebound Expected

Early on December 30, let me share something with everyone. Yesterday, we predicted that BTC would slightly drop and retest $93,000, and it indeed came true. Last week, the overseas market was quiet due to Christmas, but this week everyone is back to work, and the market is bound to be turbulent again, with greater fluctuations on the way.

Currently, the situation is not easy. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury is rising steadily, already hovering at a seven-month high; the U.S. dollar index is even more aggressive, climbing for four consecutive weeks, firmly standing above the critical level of 108. These two “big players” are putting considerable pressure on BTC.

However, on-chain data reveals something interesting. In the past couple of days, the BTC supply on the Binance platform has decreased, with a mysterious address pouring in $250 million to buy 2,400 BTC, bringing the supply back to the level of December 25. What does this indicate? Some funds have quietly positioned themselves.

As the old saying goes, "extreme situations lead to opposite outcomes," so now we wait for a turning point. As long as U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar index experience a pullback, and BTC trading volume is sufficient, along with continuous inflow of ETF funds, it’s not a dream for BTC to return to the $100,000 mark. By then, altcoins could also benefit, with many altcoins possibly seeing gains of over 20%.

Right now, the market is filled with buzz around topics like "When will Cow pump?" and "When will Trump's wallet buy coins?" Don't panic; the current decline is actually the market cleaning up leverage and shedding excess "burdens." Let’s be patient and wait for major news like Trump buying coins to break, and a new round of market activity may just begin.

❗❗❗December 29 Cryptocurrency Market Analysis
1. Ethereum Dynamics: BlackRock and Fidelity are bottom-fishing 100,000 Ethereum; many large holders are also buying, possibly to warm up for the upgrade in March next year, showing a trend of taking off. It is recommended to follow up with 2x Ethereum positions.
2. Market Trend: The Christmas holiday is almost over, and the market will improve. With the resumption of net inflows into ETFs, there is a high probability of a one-sided bullish trend; even if there is a major adjustment in January, there will be a rebound first during that period.
3. Potential of COW Coin: Trump and Vitalik Buterin frequently use COW for trading; with celebrities 'endorsing' it and no locked-up positions above, it’s bold to buy in, with hopes for a 5 to 10 times increase. It has been consistently highlighted recently, and the community has been reminding to stealthily accumulate at low positions! Congratulations on successfully enjoying the profits! #加密ETF申请热潮涌现 #币安Alpha公布第8批项目 #美国加密立法或将重启

❗❗❗ Ethereum and Grayscale Bottom Buying Key Points

Ethereum Market Trends

In the first quarter of Ethereum, except for the bear markets of 2018 and 2022, most of the time yields are considerable. The rising and falling trend in January is not obvious; in previous cases of decline, it has also been the last drop in January, with a high degree of certainty in the market concentrated in February and March. So don't exhaust your funds too early, and don't miss out on the subsequent upward trend.

Grayscale Bottom Buying Cryptocurrencies

Following Grayscale's layout can often lead to profits. Here are the recent cryptocurrencies bought at the bottom by Grayscale that have appreciated:

- Link: Bought 50,866 coins in the past month.
- Fil: Bought 106,686 coins in the past month.
- Sol: Bought 4,713 coins in the past month.
- Bch: Bought 7,579 coins in the past month.
- Ltc: Bought 33,110 coins in the past month.
- Zen: Bought 304,031 coins in the past month.
Xlm has been liquidating for the past week and is not listed!

❗❗❗ Cryptocurrency Investment Recent Key Points

Big Trend

It is now altcoin season, and the market is rotating. Bitcoin is fluctuating in the range of 92,500 - 99,500, with the 3-day MACD dead cross returning to the 0 axis, and the daily line has not shown a downward spike, making it difficult to reverse. Many altcoins are no longer following the drop, the bottom range is forming, and regardless of how it adjusts in January, it is a good opportunity to get in. Ethereum and altcoins are expected to perform well in 2025, especially in February to March. There are opportunities for bottom fishing related to Trump and Grayscale.

Potential Projects

- Trump-related: He bought AAVE, LINK, ENA, but ONDO is about to unlock a large amount, so don’t consider it.
- Grayscale-related: ZEN, ZEC, XLM, LPT are worth paying attention to.
- Sector Leaders: Render in the AI sector has pulled back to key support and can be dollar-cost averaged; GALA in the chain game sector has a daily MACD approaching a golden cross at the 0 axis; UNi in the decentralized field has speculative expectations; Pepe in the dog coin has Musk's endorsement and can be dollar-cost averaged.
- Popular Series: RAY in the SOL series has an upward trend.
- Ethereum Sector: Early allocation of ENA, SSV, ENS has its benefits.

Market Analysis

1. Capital Flow: The market is sluggish around Christmas, with ETF inflow for bottom fishing two days ago and outflow yesterday. Binance saw an inflow of 2,000 BTC, while Coinbase had an outflow of 10,000 BTC, indicating an overall outflow of BTC, but the supply of stablecoins is rebounding, showing stronger bottom fishing power.
2. Trend Judgment:
- Time: This round of adjustment is a continuation of the bull market, lasting about 10 days and nearing completion.
- Technical: Various indicators for BTC, such as MACD, WM, and RSI, have reached their lows and are expected to rebound.
- Capital: There are clear signs of bottom fishing.
- News: Trump's inauguration at the end of January will bring positive expectations to the cryptocurrency market. In the long term, BTC becoming a strategic reserve for multiple countries is only a matter of time, so there’s no need to worry too much about a major drop.

Investment Suggestions

DCA into RNDR, Pyth, Uni, ENA at lower prices; additionally, SSV has rebounded well recently and is also worth watching.

❗❗❗ Investment research news is here!

Now Trump's carefully selected projects are all pretty good:
- Holdings: AAVE holds 2.09 million US dollars, LINK holds 1.81 million US dollars, ENA holds 700,000 US dollars, and ONDO holds 200,000 US dollars.
- Market trends:
- The market may rise tonight, which will "explode" the short sellers. The coin price fluctuated in the afternoon and recovered quickly. It doesn't seem to fall. From the Binance transaction data, 30,845 ETH entered in one day. In addition, after the net outflow of BTC and Ethereum in the past few days, the net inflow in these two days was 475 million US dollars and 117 million US dollars respectively, so it is likely to be just a wash, and Ethereum is expected to take off with the altcoin.
- Key operation suggestions:
- Range and pattern: BTC oscillates between 92,500 and 99,500; ETH's one-hour line shows a round bottom reversal pattern, which is suitable for low-level longs. SOL stepped on the daily level EMA200, which is a good time to invest and buy the bottom.
- Fund flow: Stablecoins flow into exchanges, which is a bullish signal for the market.
- Popular currencies: Trump concept coins may be hyped on January 20, and AAVE and ENA can be bought at low prices; Ethereum upgrades and pledges will also be hyped in advance, and ENA, ENS, and ZK can be configured at low prices.
- Whale dynamics: In the past 48 hours, whales bought 90 million US dollars of DOGE and bought 15,332 ethers at low prices. A whale address bought 100,000 UNI at a price of 14.24 before 5:45 pm. In addition, BONK has a major positive, and 1.69 trillion BONKs will be destroyed. #加密市场调整

❗❗❗Attention friends who like altcoins:

- Bottom fishing and regular investment: You can bottom fish for uni, ena, ZRo, Sui, which are relatively stable. Use a regular investment approach, investing a little every day for 30 days. For example, for ena, you can enter around 0.92, set your position at 5.5, stop-loss price at 0.89, and target price at 0.97, 0.99.
- Capital flow: The main force has been continuously buying Ethereum. You can see from the funds flowing out of Bitcoin that the Ethereum market is about to rise. If you want to invest in altcoins, prioritize Ethereum-related ones, such as ena, ens, zk, and consider regular investments in batches. You must also allocate some to uni. The current 15-minute market trend clearly shows an upward trend for Ethereum, while Bitcoin is trending downward!#2025有哪些关键叙事？ #美国加密立法或将重启

❗❗❗ December 27 Market Analysis

The Christmas holiday in the United States is over, and many people fear a significant drop when the financial markets reopen. In the cryptocurrency sector, Bitcoin was initially sold off, causing a decrease in price.

However, looking at the ETF data, the net inflow has reached $160 million. The relevant data for BlackRock's IBIT and FBTC hasn't been released yet, but overall, this is just a pullback in a bull market; the bull market is not over.

With less than a month until Trump's inauguration, a new trend is coming. If one cannot see the larger cyclical trends, it's easy to become anxious and make operational mistakes. By 2025, the market currently only estimates a 0.35% rate cut from the Federal Reserve, but Trump has long opposed high interest rates and is likely to seize the opportunity to significantly cut rates after taking office, which can reduce the fiscal deficit and avoid a fiscal cliff. When there is a divergence between market expectations and future actual trends, it is the right time to enter the market; we must look at the larger trend and not just focus on the candlestick charts.

Ethereum's early performance wasn't great, but the data shows it is a coin heavily invested in by the Trump family. Looking back at history, in the second year after Bitcoin's halving, Ethereum has seen continuous gains for four months, as was the case in the first four months of 2017 and 2021. In the first quarter of 2025, Ethereum is also likely to experience significant gains, so stay tuned. #BTC上攻11万？

❗❗❗December 25 Market Analysis

1. Bitcoin Market: Yesterday, the price of Bitcoin rose from $92,000 to $98,000, recovering all the losses from three consecutive days of decline in just one day, showing strong momentum.
2. Capital Inflow Interpretation: News mentioned an inflow of 15,000 BTC into exchanges, raising concerns about a potential dump. However, on-chain data revealed that all of it went to Bithumb exchange. Given its historical reserve records often show similar situations, it is judged to be organizing cold wallets, not a dump, so there is no need to panic. Additionally, Binance saw an inflow of around 1,000 BTC, and stablecoins experienced a slight outflow.
3. Impact of US Stock Market Closure: In the second half of December, the US stock market usually performs well. However, during the Christmas period, the US market will close early at 1 PM local time on Tuesday and will reopen on Thursday, followed by another closure for New Year's Day, resulting in sluggish trading.
4. Operational Suggestions: After the holiday, Bitcoin is expected to return to the $100,000 high point. During this time, avoid opening long or short positions as it can easily lead to liquidation; holding spot positions is sufficient.
5. Recommended on Dips: Consider Uni, FTM, ENA, SUI, PEPE, ZRO.

❗❗❗Recently, I am considering the layout of altcoins:

Spot orders: Cow coin places orders at 1.079 and 1.04, because Trump's coming to power is good for value coins. Luna coin is a strong coin, suitable for ambush at the support level.
Currency selection ideas: The altcoin season is coming. Try to choose altcoins that are related to US investment institutions. The trend of US stocks is there. Follow the US institutions, and these coins are likely to rise.
Key currencies:
- AVAX: Morgan and Grayscale invested.
- Link: Related to Trump, Grayscale, and Fidelity.
- Sui: A16z and Coinbase invested.
- AAVE: Framework, ParaFi Capital, and Trump related.
- ENA: BlackRock, Trump, and Dragonfly participated.
- Pengu: 1KX and Shima Capital have invested.
- ONDO: BlackRock, Trump, and Morgan are involved.
- CRV: Multicoin Capital and BlackRock are on the list.
- ZRO: A16z, Multicoin Capital, and CB invested.
- PUFFER: Fidelity and Electric Capital have a stake.
- VELO: BlackRock is involved. The Shenzhen offline meeting on January 2nd and 3rd will provide information on value investment research. Contact me and see you in Shenzhen! #2025加密趋势预测 #灰度提交Horizen信托文件

❗❗❗December 25 Market Analysis and Investment Suggestions

Yesterday's Market Review

Yesterday, the Bitcoin market was quite vigorous, surging from $92,000 to $98,000 in one go, reclaiming the territory lost after three consecutive days of decline. The momentum is strong. There are reports that 15,000 BTC flowed into exchanges, which seems like a selloff. However, upon checking on-chain data, this batch of BTC mainly went to Bithumb exchange, where similar situations have occurred before, likely for cold wallet consolidation, so there's no need to worry about a selloff. Additionally, around 1,000 BTC flowed into Binance, with a slight outflow of stablecoins.

Impact of U.S. Stock Market Holidays

The U.S. stock market typically performs strongly in the latter half of December, but due to Christmas, it will close early at 1 PM local time on Tuesday and reopen on Thursday, with New Year's Day also being a holiday, leading to sluggish trading during the festive season. After the Christmas holiday, Bitcoin is expected to return to the $100,000 high.

Operational Suggestions

During this period, both long and short positions are prone to liquidation, so it is recommended to primarily hold spot positions and patiently wait for the market.

Recommended Coins

1. Spot: Recommend Uni, FTM.
2. Sectors and corresponding coins to watch:
- Grayscale sector: zen, lpt;
- SEC sector: rsr, dydx, zrx;
- Trump family: ondo, ena, link;
- Payment sector: xrp, algo, xlm, hbar, ada;
- Musk's favorites: doge.

The overall strategy is to go long on the new U.S. government-related assets, with a focus on low market cap, conceptual, fully circulating value coins. #BinanceLabs投资Usual #灰度提交Horizen信托文件

❗❗❗ December 24 Research Focus

1. Bitcoin and Altcoin Trends: Currently, Bitcoin is expected to dip again to approach the bottom, while ETH and altcoins have not followed the drop, indicating that most altcoins have already hit bottom after last week's decline. As long as Bitcoin remains above $92,000, opportunities for altcoins will arise.
2. Special Period Market Conditions: Although the market is usually quiet during Christmas and New Year, this year is a halving year, and typically, the market during halving years around New Year is very active, so it’s a good time to buy altcoins.
3. Recommended Coins
- Futures Trading: Coins like SUI, BNB, and ETH, which are performing strongly, are suitable for opening 2 - 5 times leverage contracts.
- Spot Trading: Coins like DOGE, ARKM, UNI, and ENA, which have had previous popularity, should be bought at dips; don’t hesitate when there’s an opportunity, don’t get left behind in the bull market.
4. Recent Market Situation
- On-chain Data: Not very optimistic, stablecoins are flowing out of exchanges, reserves have returned to the levels of December 7; Binance has seen an inflow of 5,000 BTC, and ETFs have seen outflows exceeding $84 million for three consecutive days.
- Short-term Key: The focus for the next two days is to maintain above $92,000. Once the Christmas holiday is over, and major institutions come back, the market is likely to become active. If Bitcoin stabilizes, altcoins may experience a favorable market.
5. Dollar-Cost Averaging Recommendation: Consider dollar-cost averaging into Uni, FTM, BTC, and BNB for bottom fishing.
Note: We suggest buying at 2.5u
Position: No more than 20% of personal capital
Target: Don’t sell until it doubles, buy at dips below 3u
Do not leverage contracts, expect good news by the end of January #币安LaunchpoolBIO

❗❗❗ Cryptocurrency Market Analysis and Outlook

Macroeconomic Situation

1. This week is the Christmas holiday in Europe and the US, with limited data available. Investors often hold onto their coins for the holiday, leading to short-term sell-offs and capital outflows, which poses volatility risks.
2. Some tokens such as ENA, ADA, IMX, and DBX will be unlocked, so be aware of the risks.
3. Top trader Eugene is optimistic about long-term opportunities in MOODENG, CHILLGUY, PNUT, and GOAT, as Trump's victory supports cryptocurrency, and it’s worth paying attention to oversold coins.
4. A US senator has proposed that the Federal Reserve hold Bitcoin, and in recent months, many have supported BTC as a strategic reserve, which is beneficial for the widespread development of BTC.
5. BTC spot ETF has seen capital outflow for two consecutive days, and short-term bulls face technical adjustments and capital outflow challenges.

Technical Trends

1. The weekly chart shows a large bearish candlestick, which is engulfing, indicating a bearish bias. Watch the Fibonacci 0.382 rising trend line; overall, there is wide-range volatility.
2. If a short-term rebound is blocked at the lower channel line, it may form a head-and-shoulders bearish pattern.
3. According to wave theory, pay attention to the height of the B wave rebound (lower channel line). If blocked, the C wave may decline, presenting high short opportunities.
4. In terms of positions, high concentration is at the potential B wave peak (lower channel line) which creates pressure. The important defense for bulls is at 87000; a break could lead to a deep correction.
5. In the 4H chart, resistance is at the EMA moving average, Gann angle line 4/1, and the rebound high point resonance; support is at previous lows and the Gann angle line 2/1 reverse support.
6. The 1H chart once showed a head-and-shoulders bottom, but the rebound is suppressed by the downward trend line. However, the long lower shadow doji and hammer form a double-bottom probe, which is favorable for a short-term bullish rebound.

The market has risks; trading requires caution. Proper position and risk management are essential. #圣诞行情分析 #本周微策略是否继续增持BTC？ #萨尔瓦多将“加速”增持BTC #灰度SUI信托基金

❗❗❗Bitcoin December 23 Market Analysis

I. Key On-Chain Data and Information

1. Long and Short Liquidation: If it falls below $95,000, the cumulative long liquidation intensity on major CEXs reaches $671 million; if it breaks above $100,000, the short liquidation intensity reaches $1.664 billion. There are unliquidated longs near 92205 and new longs being established during the decline, indicating that the main force seems to be cultivating longs, potentially aiming to hit the shorts above $100,000 after liquidation.
2. Federal Reserve Interest Rates: The probability of maintaining the current rate unchanged in January next year is 91.4%, with an 8.6% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut, which may affect the liquidity of funds in the BTC ecosystem.
3. RWA Tokenization: Increased over 60% to $13.5 billion (excluding stablecoins), gaining attention in multiple sectors, is a promising track.
4. Market Sentiment: The cryptocurrency Fear and Greed Index has dropped to 70 (weekly average 83), the lowest since December, the market may face a directional choice, with a high probability of an upward move from the low point.
5. Institutional Accumulation: Japanese company Metaplanet has increased its holdings by 619.7 BTC, bringing total holdings to 1,761.98 BTC, indicating a long-term bullish outlook from institutions.

II. Technical Analysis

The weekly chart shows upward fluctuations but is in an adjustment phase. On the 1-hour chart, pay attention to whether a bottom support level forms patterns like head and shoulders or W-bottom; if formed, it would be a buying point.

III. Multi-Faceted Analysis

Before Wall Street opens on January 5, maximum buying funds are restricted, and there are contract liquidations along with long positions being established at low levels. The market makers may leverage negative media news to liquidate these funds, intending for a dual explosion in both long and short positions.

IV. Operation Suggestions

1. Overall trend is upward; focus on increasing positions at bottom support levels.
2. A pullback near key resistance levels can be an opportunity to buy spot at a lower price; breaking through resistance levels can lead to holding or increasing spot positions.
3. Strictly control risks, set reasonable stop-loss levels, and avoid chasing highs or panic selling.#萨尔瓦多将“加速”增持BTC #灰度SUI信托基金 #圣诞行情分析 #本周微策略是否继续增持BTC？

❗❗❗Bitcoin December 21 Market Analysis and Trading Suggestions

I. Key Information

1. Capital Flow

- Yesterday, the US spot Bitcoin ETF had a net outflow of $671.9 million, and the Ethereum ETF had a net outflow of $60.5 million. Grayscale GBTC had a net outflow of $57.4 million, ARK's ARKB had a net outflow of $87 million, but Franklin's EZBC had a net inflow of $5.6 million, and Grayscale mini BTC had a net inflow of $6.4 million.

2. Liquidation Situation

- In the past 24 hours, the total liquidation across the network was $1.401 billion, with long positions liquidated amounting to $1.201 billion. A total of 428,445 people were liquidated globally, with the largest single liquidation occurring on Binance - ETHUSDT, valued at $15.7954 million.

3. Exchange Outflows

- In 2024, Bitcoin worth $9.4 billion flowed out of exchanges due to the success of Bitcoin ETFs.

4. Large Transactions

- Five hours ago, a whale purchased 4,943 ETH for 17.1 million DAI at an average price of $3,459.

II. Key Information Analysis

Bitcoin shows strong support around 90,000 - 92,000, having repelled bears three times. Due to the Christmas holiday until January 5, 2025, Wall Street will be on break, and the US stock market will be closed, pausing Bitcoin ETF trading. If selling pressure like that on the 20th arises, it is uncertain whether it can hold (as long as the US stock market does not crash, it won't). There is still pressure around 98,000 - 100,000. If there is a second pullback before Wall Street resumes on January 5, it could be a buying opportunity. Increased entry capital for Ethereum; the largest single contract long liquidation yesterday was ETH, and after all long positions are liquidated, it may perform independently, with altcoins following suit.

III. Trading Suggestions

1. Focus on Key Levels: 98,000 - 100,000 is a key resistance level; a breakthrough could lead to upward movement, while failure to break or a pullback may occur; 90,000 - 92,000 is a key support level.
2. Flexible Adjustments: If a pullback occurs near resistance levels, it may be a good opportunity to buy spot; if breakthroughs occur, hold or increase spot positions.
3. Risk Management: Strictly control risks, set reasonable stop losses, and avoid chasing highs and cutting losses.

Bitcoin is in a fluctuating trend; focus on buying spot at lower levels, monitor key resistance levels and market dynamics, and adjust strategies flexibly to control risks. #USUAL走势分析 #萨尔瓦多增持BTC #灰度SUI信托基金 #PCE通胀降温

❗❗❗Bitcoin market analysis on December 20

I. Important information

1. An IMF spokesperson said that Trump's US strategic bitcoin reserve plan will be fully evaluated when it is implemented.
2. The Bitcoin Office in El Salvador transferred BTC worth $1 million to the Bitcoin strategic reserve.
3. Hut 8 surpassed Tesla and became the fourth listed company with more than 10,000 BTC. The top three are MicroStrategy (439,000 BTC), Marathon Digital (44,394 BTC), and Riot Platforms (17,429 BTC).
4. The number of initial jobless claims in the United States last week fell more than expected, and the job market conditions gradually cooled down. As of the week of December 14, the number of initial jobless claims fell by 22,000, and the seasonally adjusted number was 220,000.
5. The Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index (VIX) surged 74% on the 18th, the second highest in history. The Fed's 25 basis point rate cut and Powell's hawkish remarks caused market panic. Bitcoin once fell below $100,000 and U.S. stocks fell by about 3%. Historical data shows that a sharp surge in VIX often indicates that Bitcoin has hit a local bottom, such as in February 2018 and August 2024.

2. Market Analysis

Institutions and whales are still buying, but Bitcoin is falling. On the one hand, the main force wants to wash out more chips, long-term bullish and ignore short-term ups and downs; on the other hand, BTC's trend is close to the US S&P 500 index, affected by factors such as the unclear expectations of interest rate cuts next year and geopolitics. In the near future, it is necessary to wait for the S&P 500 index to stabilize and stop falling at the weekly level before BTC can really stabilize. The key support level has no volume when it falls and a huge volume when it rises to be safe.

3. Operational suggestions

Investors should strictly control risks when operating, set reasonable stop-loss points, and avoid chasing ups and downs. BTC and ETH have broken through and have risen without volume. Investors should focus on the idea of ​​taking spot at low levels, pay close attention to key pressure points and market dynamics, flexibly adjust strategies and strictly control risks. #萨尔瓦多增持BTC #灰度SUI信托基金 #比特币市场波动观察

❗❗❗ Cryptocurrency market dynamics and BTC market analysis

I. Market environment

- The US Christmas holiday is from December 22 to January 5, 2025, and Wall Street is on holiday.

- The cryptocurrency circle is a zero-sum game field, and the flow of funds determines the rise and fall of the market. Recently, due to the policy shift of the Federal Reserve, global funds have flowed to the US dollar, and the cryptocurrency circle funds have been drained. The reason is that the Federal Reserve has lowered its expectations for interest rate cuts next year, causing the market to release less than expected, and the US dollar interest rate remains high. Funds have flowed back to the US dollar, the US dollar index has risen sharply, and a large amount of cryptocurrency funds have flowed out. At the same time, institutions such as Meitu and Justin Sun sold near the end of the year, hoping to buy the bottom after the decline, resulting in insufficient market liquidity and the emergence of panic trading.

II. Key data performance

- Yesterday, the US spot Bitcoin ETF had a net outflow of US$671.9 million, and the Ethereum ETF had a net outflow of US$60.5 million, indicating a trend of capital withdrawal.
- On-chain data shows that the inflow of BTC into exchanges increased by 15,000 yesterday, mainly from Binance (about 10,000), while Coinbase was in an outflow state, and the Asian market was severely smashed, while the US market was absorbing funds.

III. Analysis of BTC trend

- Reasons for the decline: The core is that the Federal Reserve released an unexpected hawkish signal the day before yesterday, and Powell said that subsequent interest rate cuts will be cautious, which shook the financial market, and US stocks also fell sharply, and BTC was implicated.
- Estimated decline: BTC previously traded sideways at a high level for 30 days, and the bottom gradually rose, but fell due to the impact of the Federal Reserve meeting. Its 30-day purchase cost is mostly above US$90,000. Although it is expected to be included in the strategic reserve of the United States, it is still possible to fall, with a maximum decline of US$88,000 (probability 30%).
- Subsequent trend: In the next few days, it is likely to fluctuate in the range of US$94,000-98,000, and will not rebound quickly. We need to wait for the US stock market to stabilize and rebound next week, and the impact of the Fed's policy will be further digested for 3-5 days.

IV. Investment strategy suggestions

You don't have to rush to sell the coins you hold, you can wait for the rebound opportunity. BNB, ETH, SOL, Uni, etc. can be considered to buy the bottom in batches. If the panic decline continues and BTC falls to US$90,000 and ETH falls to US$3,000, I will definitely buy #灰度SUI信托基金 #美联储放鹰 #比特币战略储备 #加密市场回调

❗❗❗Key points of the cryptocurrency market

1. The key to trading: It is not about how much profit you make, but how long you survive. You should keep positions to supplement mainstream coins and gain experience in market fluctuations.
2. BTC trend: The daily top pattern has appeared, and the callback is still continuing. Pay attention to the key points of 94150 and 90500.
3. Ethereum situation: The short-term cycle has not stopped falling. You can ambush at the price of 3510 and 3462, and set the stop loss at 3430.
4. The trend of altcoins: The proportion of eth/btc is already low, and altcoins may bottom out. You can buy the leaders of each sector in batches.
5. Historical rules: After the past three FOMC meetings, Bitcoin's dominance has declined and altcoins have rebounded.
6. Judgment of the altcoin season: The current situation may be the last drop before the start of the altcoin season, so it is not advisable to cut losses.
7. Investment news: Trump announced the purchase of ENA and cooperated with BlackRock. It is recommended to enter the market when the price falls back to 0.95 - 1u. #币安Alpha项目公布 #USUAL现货上线币安 #加密市场回调