After Trump's election, Bitcoin price reached a new record high. However, the MVRV indicator remains sluggish, just above 2. Usually, during euphoria, the MVRV exceeds 3. To truly mark the end of the bull market, this figure needs to rise even higher.

The inflow of new investors is still slow. In the last late stage of the bull market, the share of new investors was close to 80% of the realized capitalization. Now, the figure is only around 30%, making expectations of further growth unrealistic. More interesting price movements and new developments, such as Microsoft buying Bitcoin, are needed to attract new investors to the market.

Bitcoin miners are showing strong confidence in BTC’s uptrend despite the price hitting an all-time high. Typically, when the price approaches a peak, miners will send BTC to exchanges to sell to cover operating costs. However, currently, the flow of BTC from miners to exchanges remains low.

Data analysis on October 29 shows a significant inflow of BTC to exchanges, but no equivalent outflow. This indicates that miners prefer to hold their BTC, indicating optimism about the potential for further price increases. While the overall market is showing uncertainty, the outlook for BTC remains positive.

Massive Bitcoin withdrawals from the Binance exchange recently hit a record high this year. Although the crypto market is generally showing a negative trend, this significant withdrawal is actually a positive signal for Bitcoin.

Investors seem to be increasingly confident in Bitcoin's long-term potential, despite the current unfavorable market conditions. This confidence is reflected in their actions choosing to store Bitcoin outside of exchanges, anticipating future price increases.

This move shows optimism about the continuation of Bitcoin's bullish trend, even though the rest of the crypto market is still struggling.

Interest in Bitcoin has increased sharply on Binance, with open interest hitting a new record high. This surge indicates significant capital and liquidity flows into Binance’s derivatives market. Investor confidence appears to have been boosted by the US election results. Historically, rising open interest can indicate confidence in continued upward momentum or potential for increased volatility. While the overall market remains challenging, optimism around BTC remains strong, indicating potential for growth amid global economic uncertainty.

The crypto market is currently showing volatility, with many assets experiencing selling pressure. However, recent on-chain analysis shows positive potential for Bitcoin. The MVRV metric, which is used to assess whether Bitcoin is overheating or not, indicates that Bitcoin has not entered an overheating phase and still has upside potential.

As the cycle progresses, the rate of increase tends to slow down as the market capitalization increases. Based on this trend, the market is expected to overheat when the MVRV value reaches around 3. This shows that even though the crypto market is generally sluggish, Bitcoin still has promising growth opportunities.

The crypto market is currently showing interesting but worrying dynamics. Bitcoin (BTC) remains the only cryptocurrency closest to reaching its all-time high (ATH), followed by BNB and TON.

Most altcoins are still far from their peaks, with declines ranging from -74% to -97%. This explains why Bitcoin’s dominance continues to increase, although altcoins occasionally experience short-term gains that quickly return to historical lows.

Although Bitcoin reached a new peak in 2024, almost 10 months have passed without altcoins showing the strength they did in 2021. This cycle is moving at a slower pace, with a more cautious and uncertain outlook for the crypto market.

Many are feeling anxious ahead of the November event, especially as the market is affected by various macro issues. I prefer a more traditional analytical approach, using the MVRV indicator to indirectly assess Bitcoin’s value.

Currently, the MVRV is around 2, indicating a market value of twice the estimated on-chain value. However, I place more emphasis on ‘trend-based valuation.’

Using the 365-day Bollinger Band for MVRV and the 4-year average, the MVRV is currently above this average, having just surpassed the 365-day average.

This suggests the uptrend remains intact, with cycle tops typically occurring when the MVRV reaches 3 to 3.6. Assuming Realized Value (RV) remains the same, a 43-77% increase is needed, which would mean a Bitcoin target of $95k to $120k.

While Bitcoin has rallied significantly over the past year, it has only just returned to the average on the MVRV indicator. Upward momentum is still intact.

The crypto market is currently showing a negative trend with many assets experiencing significant declines. However, Bitcoin (BTC) remains a hope for investors.

The Dollar Cost Averaging (DCA) strategy has proven effective in generating substantial profits in both the short, medium, and long term.

A chart analysis comparing the average price of Bitcoin with the short-term realized price (1 week to 1 month) reveals optimal buy zones.

By understanding the broader market trends and sentiment, investors can make more informed and wise investment decisions.

Bitcoin hit a record high of $73,620 on Binance on October 29, but has now fallen back from the $70K level. Price and open interest are showing signs of a short-term correction.

Realized Price - UTXO Age Bands data shows the average acquisition cost for participants who bought Bitcoin in the past week is between $69,549 and $70,733. If the price corrects further to the $63K-$66K range, we may see profit-taking from buyers at lower levels, as well as potential panic selling from new buyers reacting to the drop.

Determining support levels in the coming days will be key to understanding the potential direction of the market.

Bitcoin’s network difficulty and hashrate have hit record highs. As difficulty increases, more computing power is required to process transactions, which increases the cost of mining. Bitcoin’s continued rise in value has intensified competition for mining, posing challenges for the industry. Without enough transaction fees to cover these costs, the burden on miners could increase significantly, potentially affecting the sustainability of the mining ecosystem. However, optimism for BTC remains high amid these challenges.

BTC withdrawals from exchanges continue to increase. Between February 9 and November 2, 2024, approximately 421,909 BTC were withdrawn from exchanges.

- Week 37: 46.2k BTC out
- Week 42: 41.99k BTC out

This trend shows a significant shift of BTC from exchanges, possibly indicating increased HODLing. Despite the current crypto market pressure, optimism towards BTC remains high. Could this lead to a supply shock in the future?

The crypto market is under significant pressure. The Coinbase Premium Index has reached an important resistance line, although the price continues to decline. The reaction to this trend line is very important for future price movements.

The open interest indicator, which previously acted as resistance, is now supporting, providing positive data.

In my price analysis, there are two zones that are predicted to rise: the 0.5 zone and the manipulation zone at the Range low.

The funding rate indicator is not at extreme levels. The bullish community is slowly turning bearish, providing positive signals for our bullish scenario.

The current crypto market is showing a worrying trend, but there is a glimmer of hope from Bitcoin (BTC). Amidst the market uncertainty, the TON network has shown significant growth in the use of the USDT stablecoin.

- In the past six months, the amount of USDT on the TON network has increased by 670%, from $130 million to $1.02 billion.
- Low transaction fees and high speed are the main factors behind this increase.
- In June 2024, the average transaction fee was $0.061, dropping to $0.035 in October.

Despite the sluggish crypto market, the adoption of USDT on the TON network shows strong growth potential, especially with competitive infrastructure.

There has been a significant change in user behavior on the XRP Ledger (XRPL). Earlier this year, around 88% of transactions were Payment Transactions, while only 12% were OfferCreate Transactions. Now, the numbers have balanced out at 50% for each type of transaction.

This change shows a transformation in how users interact with the XRPL. The increase in OfferCreate transactions indicates an increase in trading activity, reflecting a growing interest in leveraging the platform’s ability to issue new assets and adopt decentralized exchange (DEX) features.

However, amid market uncertainty, optimism for Bitcoin remains high.

There has been a significant shift in user behavior on the XRP Ledger (XRPL). At the beginning of the year, around 88% of transactions were Payment Transactions, while only 12% were OfferCreate Transactions. Now, the numbers have balanced out at 50% for each type of transaction.

This shift shows a transformation in how users interact with the XRPL. The increase in OfferCreate transactions indicates an increase in trading activity, reflecting a growing interest in leveraging the platform’s ability to issue new assets and adopt decentralized exchange (DEX) features.

This trend shows that more users are adopting the XRPL for complex strategies beyond just payments.

The crypto market continues to be volatile with negative sentiment. On October 29, $1.0 billion USDT was minted on the TRON network, marking the 14th issuance this year. The total supply of USDT on TRON increased from around $48.8 billion to around $62.8 billion.

Despite the market volatility, optimism towards Bitcoin remains high. Analysts believe BTC will continue to be an attractive asset amid global economic uncertainty. On-chain analysis shows increased BTC activity and accumulation, indicating investor confidence in its long-term potential.

Stay alert and monitor market developments.

Crypto market warning: Two years since the collapse of FTX, trust in exchanges is still being tested. FTX failed to maintain adequate reserves for user funds, fueling the need for Proof-of-Reserves (PoR).

Coinbase, one of the largest exchanges, does not provide a public PoR report. In contrast, Binance provides a comprehensive PoR, including Proof-of-Assets (PoA) and verification of user balances.

Binance’s Bitcoin reserves grew 5% to 611K BTC, despite regulatory pressure from the US. Only Binance and Bitfinex have recorded growth in Bitcoin reserves since the collapse of FTX.

Optimism remains for BTC, even as the crypto market faces major challenges.

The crypto market is trending down, but there is hope for Bitcoin (BTC). The UTXO Block P/L Count Ratio model provides important insights into BTC price cycles and the profit/loss balance of market participants.

The analysis uses short-term (7-day), medium-term (30-day), and long-term (365-day) moving averages to reflect periodic trends. The decline in the profitability ratio over the years suggests that short-term and medium-term trading strategies are becoming more relevant.

If the 30-day profit/loss ratio exceeds the 365-day moving average, this could signal a new peak. While economic conditions vary, it is likely that the profit/loss ratio will use the annual average as a resistance point for a new peak.

The crypto market is again showing high volatility. The strongest buying pressure since September appeared on the Binance futures market.

Analysis shows a similar pattern not only on Bitcoin, but also on Ethereum.

Although the market is generally negative, there is optimism towards BTC.

Investors are advised to remain vigilant and follow the latest developments.

The crypto market is currently showing negative sentiment, although there is some optimism towards Bitcoin (BTC).

- Recent data shows that the Ethereum (ETH) funding rate is in positive territory, reflecting bullish sentiment among futures traders.
- However, this funding rate is still lower than last March, when ETH experienced a strong bullish trend.
- For ETH to break through key resistance levels and maintain its uptrend, a higher funding rate is needed.
- This would indicate increased buying interest and confidence from futures traders, which could push prices higher.

Optimism towards BTC remains amid market uncertainty.