The crypto market is currently showing signs of instability, with sell-side liquidity indicating a potential Bitcoin peak. However, a thorough analysis shows that Bitcoin still has room for growth until March-April 2025. It is estimated that Bitcoin could reach a price range of $130,000-$160,000 during that period.

Although the total crypto market cap currently appears stagnant, it is projected to reach $5-$5.5 trillion in the next few years. The 30-day change data supports this optimistic view, indicating potential for further growth. Stay alert to market fluctuations, but optimism about Bitcoin remains high.

The crypto market is currently showing interesting dynamics. Bitcoin netflow data from exchanges indicates a predominance of outflows, indicating that investors prefer to hold their BTC for the long term. This reduces selling pressure and shows confidence in the potential for future price increases.

However, the recent massive inflow of 9.9K BTC suggests potential price volatility. This often involves large investors or institutions that can trigger short-term price corrections.

However, if the outflow trend continues, the market could see upward momentum. Monitoring BTC netflow remains an important tool for understanding market sentiment and price trends.

The crypto market is under pressure after Bitcoin surged past 107K, followed by a decline that sparked fears of an end to the bull run. However, analysis shows optimism about the continuation of Bitcoin's rise.

- The behavior of old 'whales' is an important indicator. In previous cycles, new price peaks were usually followed by an inflow of Bitcoin to exchanges from these 'whales', which has not happened this time.

- The current price correction is more likely a temporary adjustment than the end of the bull run.

Thus, despite the challenges facing the crypto market, the long-term outlook for Bitcoin remains positive.

The crypto market experienced significant selling pressure, reflected by the Binance Spot-Perpetual price gap reaching -59.14 USD, a new record low. This negative sentiment was triggered by the latest US macroeconomic data from the FED, including projections of interest rate cuts and inflation expectations.

Not only the crypto market, stocks also experienced a sharp decline with the market capitalization shrinking by $1.8 trillion in a day, the worst since March 2020. However, in previous bull cycles, this price gap has often reversed direction.

History shows that this negative extreme can be a good buying opportunity, as market sentiment tends to recover after overreacting. Optimism towards BTC remains amid this uncertainty.

Post-Fed meeting, Bitcoin Open Interest (OI) metric saw a significant drop of $3 billion, from $33 billion to $30 billion. This drop occurred after Powell’s hawkish speech, increasing uncertainty and volatility in the market.

The VIX (Fear Index) index jumped sharply, reflecting the increasing anxiety among market participants. This data indicates a major liquidation in the futures market, triggering a temporary cooling phase.

Amidst the increasing fear and volatility, investors appear to be more cautious. However, this could be an important indicator to understand the future market movement, with optimism towards BTC still persisting.

The crypto market faces serious challenges related to liquidity risk due to high leverage ratios on some exchanges. Recent analysis shows that Binance has managed to maintain strong reserves despite a significant increase in open interest. With a stable leverage ratio of 13.5 in December 2024, Binance shows resilience to market volatility. In contrast, exchanges such as Gate.io, Bybit, and Deribit show high leverage ratios of 106, 86, and 32, respectively, indicating liquidity risk. Strict monitoring of exchange leverage is essential to prevent crises like the FTX collapse in November 2024. Meanwhile, optimism towards Bitcoin remains high, supported by strong reserves on major exchanges.

The crypto market has been under pressure with Bitcoin’s price dropping, sparking fears that the bull run is over. However, this assessment may be premature, given that many on-chain metrics remain positive.

New investors who entered at the peak are feeling the pinch, with a realized price of $98k, taking a loss. However, investors who entered 1-3 months ago, with a realized price of $71k, are unlikely to see Bitcoin’s price drop to that level.

In the 2021 bull market, Bitcoin has often experienced sharp corrections but has always recovered, suggesting that the current correction may be temporary. For those who have not yet entered the market, this could be an opportunity to buy Bitcoin at a cheaper price.

The crypto market is currently facing increasing selling pressure, as seen by the Coinbase Premium Index which is in the negative zone. This indicates that investors are choosing to sell their assets rather than buy, adding pressure to the already sluggish market.

On the other hand, aSOPR shows a sudden spike in profit-taking. This indicates that many investors have decided to realize their profits, perhaps as a precautionary measure against market uncertainty.

However, amidst this uncertainty, Bitcoin remains a bright spot. Optimism towards BTC is still strong, especially with the expectation that the ETF trend will remain stable. Tonight's data will be the determinant of the market's next direction.

Long-term holders are an important segment of the market, and monitoring their behavior can provide valuable insights into future market trends. The Binary Coin Days Destroyed (CDD) metric is a key tool for analyzing their activity. Spikes in this metric often signal potential selling pressure from long-term holders.

Currently, the Binary CDD metric is experiencing a significant spike, coinciding with Bitcoin’s new all-time high of $108K. This spike suggests that long-term holders may see this price level as a good time to distribute their assets. If this selling pressure increases, it could lead to further volatility and a potential price correction. However, optimism towards BTC remains.

Coinbase Record Bitcoin Withdrawal: $1.1 Billion Moved in One Hour

Coinbase recorded the largest withdrawal this week with 10,756 Bitcoins withdrawn in just one hour. Data shows the large move coincided with the Fed’s interest rate decision announcement.

Transaction Details:

- First block: 8,093 Bitcoins
- Second block: 2,557 Bitcoins
- Total withdrawals: 10,650 Bitcoins
- Transaction value: $1.1 billion

The scale of the transaction indicates institutional buying or demand for Spot ETFs. The move highlights the growing influence of institutions in the Bitcoin market.

US investors continue to accumulate Bitcoin regardless of price fluctuations or market downturns. Analyzing the impact of these transactions on price trends remains important.

The crypto market is facing negative pressure due to declining demand in the US, reflected in the Coinbase Premium Index. The Fed’s tighter policies are adding to the burden, triggering concerns among investors. However, Bitcoin continues to show potential as a resilient asset. BTC’s average realized price, which is usually a technical support level during a bull market, is now in focus. If there is a further decline, BTC is expected to test the 97,600 level. Despite the gloomy market, optimism towards BTC remains, given its history of weathering market challenges.

Bitcoin demand in the United States is showing a worrying trend. The Coinbase Premium Index, which reflects demand on the Coinbase exchange, is showing a decline despite Bitcoin's price rising from $94K to $106K in the past two weeks.

This decline comes amid the launch of a Bitcoin ETF in January 2024 and the upcoming US presidential election, signaling a potential weakness in the medium-term upward momentum.

Investors are advised to exercise caution and monitor these developments closely. Nonetheless, optimism about Bitcoin remains, given its important role in future investment portfolios.

The crypto market is currently showing a worrying trend, with trading activity in the futures and spot markets declining since March 2024. However, since October, trading volumes have started to increase, driving up the price of Bitcoin.

Despite the decline in futures market activity, demand in the spot market continues to increase. This indicates that excessive speculation in the futures market is starting to subside, while buying pressure in the spot market is getting stronger.

Funding rate analysis with the 30-day EMA shows no signs of overheating. This indicates that Bitcoin's uptrend is likely to continue, opening up opportunities for further growth.

Bitcoin continues to hit all-time highs, while withdrawals from Binance remain consistent, despite BTC price surpassing $100K.

This trend, which began in early November, shows no signs of slowing down.

As a result, Binance’s Bitcoin reserves have been steadily decreasing since August, with the withdrawal rate increasing significantly since November.

These withdrawals reflect strong investor confidence, as holders appear to be choosing to secure their BTC in private wallets, signaling an intention to hold for the long term, potentially anticipating further price increases.

Swap activity on TON DEX has dropped again, as the number of available pools has decreased. After the TON price approached $7.2, significant volatility caused the price to fluctuate between $7.2 and $5.2. This movement resulted in a decrease in interest in DEXs, both in swaps and pools.

Historically, an increase in swaps on platforms such as Stone.FI and DeDust is directly related to an increase in the TON price. Conversely, this decrease in activity indicates a price correction and a decrease in public interest in the network.

While the market is showing uncertainty, optimism towards BTC remains, given its stability and long-term potential.

The increase in short-term holders (STH) with assets aged less than three months is mainly due to institutional investors or new whales, rather than retail investors. This is evident from the change in whale balances that support the increase in Bitcoin prices.

Despite the bullish price movement, the Korean market remains sluggish. This is reflected in the negative "Korean premium", indicating limited participation from Korean investors. Memories of the last ATH in March still cause hesitation among Korean investors, preventing them from fully participating in the current bull market. However, if they want to join the market rally, they must act quickly to avoid being left behind.

The crypto market is currently showing uncertainty, with the Realized Profit Ratio indicator suggesting that whales have yet to start a major sell-off. Data shows that wallets holding between 10 and 10,000 BTC have yet to show significant profit-taking activity. This suggests that large investors may still be waiting for further upside before hitting an all-time high (ATH) in this cycle. Despite the sluggish market, optimism towards BTC remains, with the potential for future price increases still wide open.

The crypto market is currently showing interesting dynamics. Recent data shows that even though the average realized price for Bitcoin deposits to Binance reached $63,000, the CDD Inflow metric remains low. This suggests that deposits are coming from short-term holders or new participants, rather than from long-held coins.

Experienced investors appear to be adopting a “hodl” mentality, refraining from selling despite Bitcoin’s price fluctuations. This trend indicates a decrease in selling pressure and increasing optimism in the market. Binance continues to be an important hub for institutional and retail investors, driving market sentiment and expectations for future price movements.

The current crypto market shows a shift of capital from long-term holders (LTHs) to short-term holders (STHs) as the price of BTC increases. LTHs tend to take profits at the top, while STHs are FOMO-driven to buy.

- Orange peaks indicate maximum speculation, usually at cycle peaks.
- Blue areas indicate accumulation by LTHs, often in bear markets.

In 2024, while speculation has increased, it has not reached the extremes seen in 2017 or 2021. Is this just the beginning? Optimism for BTC remains high despite the challenges facing the crypto market.

The crypto market is showing signs of selling pressure after Binance’s Spot-Perp spread turned negative, after a month of positive. This indicates bearish sentiment in the derivatives market.

However, the funding rate remains low, suggesting that this signal is not yet significant.

With open interest still high, it is important to monitor this metric closely. Whether the market will experience a short-term correction or enter an accumulation phase remains to be seen.

Amidst this uncertainty, Bitcoin remains a bright spot with promising long-term growth potential.