Recent market reports indicate that after a price adjustment, the "whales" on Binance futures typically intervene according to two patterns:

- Purple Box Pattern: Appears when the price drops sharply, "whales" absorb liquidity, leading to a spike in the buying ratio.

- Green Box Pattern: Appears before the market breaks out after a sideways phase, with the buying ratio gradually increasing in the accumulation zone.

However, during the recent drop to 89k, no patterns appeared. If any had, the situation might have been different. Although the current chart is often compared to the structure of January, it is clear that at that time, "whales" were preparing and absorbing liquidity.

The momentum is weakening. Caution is advised when discussing the potential for a bullish reversal at this stage.

The flow of stablecoins into exchanges is showing a strong upward trend, indicating a close relationship with the price of BTC. Over the past week, the amount of stablecoins entering exchanges has increased significantly. This may stem from expectations surrounding Trump's inauguration. If this trend continues, the price of BTC is likely to surpass its previous all-time high.

Coinbase Premium has recently surged above 100, after dipping below -300 on December 14th. This is a positive sign for Bitcoin, indicating a significant recovery.

Previously, the large negative value of Coinbase Premium was seen as activity from whales on Binance. However, on December 14th, the sell-off on Coinbase put pressure, but there were also signs of accumulation at lower price levels, helping Bitcoin gradually recover.

When Coinbase Premium surpasses 100, it is often a sign of whale intervention on Coinbase. However, this increase is not yet large enough to indicate a massive buying spree.

For Bitcoin to continue its upward trend, it is necessary to observe both the high positive and negative values of Coinbase Premium. With market sentiment improving due to macroeconomic data and political events, Bitcoin is on track towards new highs.

New research analyzes the behavior and market influence of Bitcoin UTXO groups that have not been spent for 2 to 5 years.

I. Key points:

1. Behavior of the 2Y-5Y UTXO group in the current cycle:

• In November 2024, when Bitcoin reaches ~$68K, the weekly realized price change of this group decreases sharply, indicating they are beginning to take profits.

• History shows that this is not a sign of the end of a bull market but rather a phase of new momentum, as selling pressure is absorbed by new demand.

2. The role of MVRV in determining bottoms and trends:

• In previous cycles, the MVRV level = 1 of the 2Y-5Y group often coincides with market bottoms, highlighting the importance of analyzing this UTXO age group.

3. Continued bull market:

• Recent profit-taking behavior aligns with mid-cycle activity in previous bull runs, suggesting the market still has growth potential.

• The combination of negative weekly realized price changes indicates a healthy market structure with growth potential in the near future.

From the second half of 2023, Bitcoin miner reserves will decrease from 1.845 million BTC to about 1.808 million BTC in January 2025. Meanwhile, Bitcoin price is still increasing, currently trading around $103,000.

When miners increase their reserves, selling pressure usually decreases. Conversely, decreasing reserves shows that they are selling, possibly due to increased operating costs or wanting to take profits when prices are high.

Despite the decrease in reserves, Bitcoin price is still increasing, indicating that buying demand from other investors is still strong, offsetting the selling from miners.

If reserves continue to decrease, selling pressure may decrease, supporting further price increases. As Bitcoin approaches a new ATH, this information is useful for market analysis.

New data shows a notable trend: the average execution price of BTC deposits on Binance is currently $62,600. This indicates that the majority of BTC depositors on Binance are in profit.

- Average execution price: $62,600 for BTC deposits on Binance.
- Profit margin: Positive trend with BTC deposits being profitable.
- Sell pressure analysis: Typically, realized losses on exchanges lead to increased sell pressure. However, current data shows low sell pressure on Binance as BTC deposits remain profitable. No negative trends have been recorded to date.

This index, available on CryptoQuant, helps determine the profits and losses of Binance users, providing insights into market sentiment and volatility.

When looking at the price drops of Bitcoin, an interesting pattern emerges! In the red "bear zone" areas, the market seems to lose all hope. But it is right here that opportunities begin!

In these bear regions, short-term patience becomes a golden opportunity for investors. History shows that after these quiet periods, Bitcoin often tends to rise stronger. Instead of panicking, those who maintain their faith are often rewarded when the market recovers.

The chart clearly shows: after each significant drop, the market pauses, gathers momentum, and then enters a stronger upward trend. These patterns highlight the importance of market sentiment and the power of patience.

The simple thing to remember: if you understand the ups and downs of Bitcoin, price drops don’t have to be scary—they can be opportunities. Patience will win!

The Whale ratio on the exchange is reaching a record high, indicating that the 10 largest BTC transactions account for a significant portion of the cash flow into the exchange.

🔍 What does it mean?

When the Whale ratio is high, it indicates that "whales" are moving large amounts of Bitcoin. They may be preparing for large-scale buy or sell transactions, putting pressure on the market.

💡 Stay alert! Strong fluctuations from major players can pose volatility risks but also open up unique opportunities for those who closely monitor the market.

The emergence of "new whales" in the cryptocurrency market always attracts attention. From 2021 to 2024, the number of new large investors entering the market is increasing, showing a strong interest in cryptocurrency. However, their entry and exit speed can cause significant price fluctuations.

The chart shows that prices often peak when "new whales" are highly active, as seen in 2021 and 2023. These price surges often lead to subsequent corrections.

The increasing number of "new whales" often signals a bull market, while strong corrections can indicate a bear market. Since 2021, these fluctuations have become more apparent.

"New whales" bring vitality to the market but can also cause significant price volatility. Understanding these movements helps to better grasp market cycles.

For the first time since January 6, 2024, the Coinbase Premium Index has moved into positive territory on the daily chart. Bitcoin is approaching the $100,000 mark, with US investors showing renewed buying interest.

CPI shows the market is dominated by buyers as Trump prepares to take office. With just days left before the inauguration, US investors are clearly bullish. CPI data confirms that, on both the daily and hourly timeframes, US investors are regaining market dominance.

The big question is: how will this dynamic affect the direction of Bitcoin under Trump?

CPI data better than expected has created a positive sentiment in the market.

On January 15, Binance recorded a stablecoin inflow of nearly 500 million USD.

Investors see this as a positive sign for the current trend.

This capital is mainly used to purchase Bitcoin, pushing the price above 100,000 USD.

Bitcoin reserves on Binance continue to decline, with over 63,000 Bitcoin having left since August 12.

This indicates strong investor confidence in the Bitcoin trend and suggests they may be preparing for the long term.

The T3 Financial Crime Unit (T3 FCU) was established through the cooperation between TRON, Tether, and TRM Labs to combat the illegal activities using USDT on TRON.

To date, T3 FCU has frozen over 100 million USD in assets related to money laundering, fraud, extortion, hacking, violent crime, terrorism, and drugs.

This collaboration is an important step to protect investors and ensure that the decentralization of the blockchain is not abused by bad actors.

The annual actual volatility (1 week) of TON has significantly decreased, falling below the threshold of 0.25.

- Market sentiment: When volatility increases, it often indicates excitement, while a sharp decrease may suggest that investors are losing interest or feeling fearful.

- Market risk: Low volatility is usually associated with reduced risk, allowing investors to adjust their strategies.

History shows that periods of low volatility are often followed by market reversals.

Carefully monitoring these low volatility zones can provide attractive investment opportunities, but further evaluation is needed.

It is important to combine this with other indicators and consider the overall trend before making a decision.

US inflation data for early 2025 was released on January 15. Overall inflation was as predicted, but core inflation was lower than expectations for both the month and the year. This good news has excited crypto investors, signaling a positive shift for the risk market.

The strong spot price increase is also reflected in Binance's futures market. In a bull market, support from futures is very important, and Binance's Open Interest (OI) has provided that consolidation. Just two hours after the inflation data was released, Binance's OI increased by 3.30%, reaching $10.96 billion. This increase of nearly half a billion dollars indicates that investor confidence is rising.

The total OI of $10.96 billion emphasizes the strong optimistic sentiment across both the spot and futures markets, signaling continued growth potential.

Cryptocurrency market “Exchange Netflow” data provides clues about future moves. Netflow represents the total amount of cryptocurrency flowing into and out of exchanges over a given period. When inflows increase, it can signal selling pressure; conversely, outflows indicate investors are moving funds into wallets and are less willing to trade.

Recent data shows significant inflows on January 12, but prices have risen since January 13. This suggests that the cryptocurrency moving into exchanges has not been sold or that market demand has absorbed the supply.

Lessons for investors:
- Pay attention to large inflows: Often signals selling pressure but does not always lead to price declines.

- Watch the price reaction: Rising prices indicate strong demand.

- Don’t rely on data alone: ​​Consider other indicators and market news.

TON is entering a low-risk phase, creating a good opportunity to accumulate. The Normalized Risk Metric (NRM) indicates that the price of TON is in an attractive range for buying.

- Medium-term NRM (50 days): When it drops to the green level, this is a short and medium-term accumulation opportunity.
- Long-term NRM (374 days): When it turns green, it confirms TON is at historically low risk levels for long-term investors.

Strategy: Patiently wait for the NRM to reach the green level before increasing investments in TON. Consider a dollar-cost averaging strategy during this period to optimize profits.

Monitor the 50-day and 374-day moving averages to clearly understand the risk points. Those who capture this phase well can benefit greatly from the next price increase.

The Bitcoin and crypto markets are entering a period of stagnation, as the Active Addresses indicator shows signs of weakness. A “death cross” has occurred between the 30-day and 365-day moving averages, signaling a decline in short-term investor activity. Historically, such patterns have coincided with bearish market conditions, which can be a negative sign.

Trading volume has also declined from Q4 2024, reinforcing the possibility of a market stagnation in the medium to long term. Until the market improves, avoid excessive leverage and prioritize a strong risk management strategy.

Bitcoin has recovered slightly, nearing the $97,000 mark.

Short-term SOPR analysis shows a familiar pattern: during the correction phase, this index shifts from the red circle to the green circle. This often reduces market optimism about the potential for price increases, but then the market recovers.

The higher the red circle, the more it indicates profit-taking by large "whales," which often leads to deeper or longer correction phases.

Currently, compared to March, the volume of profit-taking is significantly lower, suggesting that this correction phase may be shorter than the previous one that lasted seven months.

Since the current correction phase has lasted more than a month, there is a high likelihood that the upward trend will return in Q1 2025.

However, in the short term, there may be one or two sharp declines pushing SOPR below the yellow dotted line, which could dampen market hopes before a bullish reversal. Therefore, caution is needed with short-term trades.

SunPump stands out on the TRON network as the first platform dedicated to launching and trading meme coins. With a TVL of under 2 million USD, the project is in its early stages but has significant growth potential. SunPump could be the hidden gem waiting to be discovered.

What is SunPump?

SunPump provides an accessible and low-cost platform for creators to launch meme coins in a safe, friendly environment. The platform is distinguished by its fairness, transparency, and focus on participation, offering a more autonomous trading experience.

The SunPump Ecosystem

In addition to SunPump, many other tokens such as HTXunion, Sundoge, Tron Bull, SunCat, and InvestZone are also integrated, creating a vibrant and cohesive community.

Growth Opportunities

Although SunPump's TVL is still low, this is an opportunity to accumulate before the project increases in value. Projects like SunDog have achieved a market cap of 77.21 million USD, demonstrating the potential for rapid growth on the TRON network.

FDUSD, the new stablecoin from Binance, quickly captured 48% of the trading volume of the BTC pair on the exchange, surpassing USDT with 42%. This shift indicates a growing confidence in FDUSD within high-volume BTC markets.

This development underscores Binance's adaptability and strong market position. As traders seek stable options, FDUSD has emerged as a top choice.

With FDUSD becoming the preferred stablecoin for BTC trading, Binance continues to lead the market, providing a secure and seamless trading experience, reinforcing its reputation as the world's top cryptocurrency exchange.