Witness History!

BTC price peaked near 69,500 and faced resistance, with the high point being the overlapping pressure levels of MA20 and MA60 on the 4H chart. There is a possibility of revisiting the bottom in the short term.
On the 1H chart, although the price is running above the middle track of the channel, there is a certain stagnation and weakness in the rebound performance near the intraday high. As the rebound height decreases, it should be treated with a weak consolidation mindset.
In the afternoon analysis, it was indicated that the main support below the price is primarily referenced at 66,000. In the short term, there is still some room, and the overall trading plan is to go short first and then long.

Altcoin: Doge
Currently, an upward channel has formed, and entry can be made near 0.12 and 0.136.
The announcement of the election results this afternoon may become the catalyst for Doge to take off $BTC $DOGE #美国大选后涨或跌？ #美国大选后叙事观察 #11月市场预测

Recent Fundamental News

1. This week's focus is mainly on the U.S. presidential election on November 5 and the interest rate decision on November 8, while other data has relatively less impact in the context of these major events.

U.S. Election:
The U.S. election is entering the home stretch, with intensifying competition between the Democratic and Republican parties. Previous data showed Trump leading Harris by over 60% in support, but recent polls indicate that the two are nearly tied. The interpretation of poll data reflected in prices is as follows:

Trump's poll data peaked at 67%, with BTC hitting a historical high near 73776, followed by a decline despite significant positive news on non-farm payrolls. The causes of the downturn are as follows: U.S. media exposed platforms suspected of wash trading, leading to a rapid drop in his winning probability. Despite BlackRock's Bitcoin spot ETF seeing the largest single-day net inflow, the previous largest crypto exchange Mt.Gox's liquidation triggered panic.

Currently, attention needs to be paid to the performance of different factions in swing states. According to market news, Trump is leading Harris in 7 swing states, appearing to have a greater chance of winning, but until the official results are announced, the risk of uncertainty is gradually increasing, so caution is required.

2. According to CME's "Fed Watch": The probability of the Federal Reserve lowering rates by 25 basis points by November is 98%, while the probability of maintaining the current rate is 1.1%. Given the high consistency in market expectations, combined with the recent rise, one must be wary of the risk of buying expectations and selling facts.

3. In terms of data, the overall BTC spot ETF is still showing significant net inflows. Since Trump is defined as a pro-cryptocurrency president, his poll data still indicates a considerable winning edge, and market expectations for his victory have led to optimism regarding the prospects for cryptocurrencies.

Important events this week #美联储利率决议来袭 #11月市场预测

The crypto world is like solving problems
Look at the answers and solve the problems, go up more, take a break!
Professional matters should be left to professionals
(More detailed strategies, real trading, see 🐷 page) $BTC
#你问我答 #美国大选后行情预测

It's all about the means #非农就业人数大幅降温

No need to say more, everyone. The facts speak for themselves, the posts are public, the strategies are public, just pay attention.

Shanzhai Recommendation: TURBO
U.S. Election on November 5
Purchase Price: 0.009——0.0085 in batches

Trading Logic: Concept speculation as the U.S. election approaches, short-term correction is in place: Daily KD is oversold, 4H decline is slowing, short-term bottoming out and challenging the downward trend line, low absorption layout speculation nature $TURBO
#战火将如何牵动加密市场？ #MemeWatch2024

Weekly Level: Pay attention to last week's closing situation. Will the price candlestick fall back into the oscillation range? Last week's weekly candlestick successfully closed as a hammer, and the lower shadow has completed a retest of the upper boundary of the consolidation range. This closing is favorable for the bulls this week.
2. In terms of MACD, it is also above the zero axis with a golden cross, and the volume bars are starting to expand. The long-term trend is still positive, maintaining the potential to challenge the new high at 73,000.

Daily Level
3. In terms of structure, the price has gone through strong consolidation near the upper boundary of the weekly level, hence it remained in an oscillating state last week. The current short-term support is around 66,000, with the second support level around 64,450 (the neckline of the W bottom), and the resistance above is 69,000 (previous high resistance, also the resistance of the upward flag pattern). The second resistance level is near 70,000 (previous historical resistance).
4. In terms of the Bollinger Bands, the middle band is at 66,000 for short-term support. The lower band, as the line moves, will basically be around 64,450 after the contraction, which resonates with both structural support and resistance.
5. In terms of Fibonacci, 0.618 is the low point of the shadow line, and 0.5 is the second support level, confirming the support and resistance areas.
6. In terms of RSI, there is a need for a pullback, as RSI is slowing at high levels and the swing highs are decreasing. Each time it falls back, the price will also follow lower. Currently, it is at a small high point in the third wave, indicating a certain pullback risk. When entering long positions, a lower entry is more stable.

4-Hour Level
7. The structure on the 4-hour chart is clearer, with the current shape being a flag pattern during an upward process. The high and low points of the current consolidation range have been tested twice. The current price is at the top of the third test. If the resistance is effective, the price will first pull back to the area around 66,000, which is also the support of the 4-hour Vegas channel. If it breaks below again, it will be the support level of the W bottom neckline, which is also the last test of the lower line of the flag pattern. The price will rebound here and then aim for the target.

Another scenario is:
If the short-term support around 66,000 is effective, the price may show a certain pullback during the day, break through the trend line resistance, and then retest before rising.

8. In terms of KDJ, there is a short-term pullback demand, turning downwards, forming a death cross. Since this is at the 4-hour level, there may be a certain pullback during the day. The layout for long positions during the pullback is more stable.

1. The current prediction for Trump winning the U.S. presidential election is 65.1%, while Harris's probability of winning is 34.8%. With the election countdown underway, related concept tokens may present trading opportunities.
2. Last week, attention was drawn to SOL opportunities. The Solana network's TVL has grown nearly 20% in the past week, reaching a new high since January 2022. The meme hype in the ecosystem is strong, so keep an eye on SOL tokens and related ecosystem token opportunities.
3. The top three trading volumes in the SOL ecosystem meme sector are GOAT, BAN, and EYE.

$GOAT is a pioneer in AI-driven meme coins, though in practice, AI's role is more of a marketing tool. This narrative has sparked the AIMeme craze and discussions about the future applications of AI in the cryptocurrency field.
$BAN is the leading meme coin in the Solana chain's Sotheby's concept, consistently ranking among the top three in trading volume over the past 24 hours, demonstrating a wealth effect.
$EYE represents the artistic concept of the Eye of God.
According to Arkham data, crypto market maker Wintermute's holdings in the Solana ecosystem include approximately $33 million in meme coins, currently holding 4.35% (43.072 million pieces, valued at approximately $9.74 million) of the total MOODENG, making it the largest holding in Solana ecosystem tokens. Additionally, Wintermute holds $9.27 million in GOAT, $7.13 million in MEW, and $6.80 million in PONKE.

Meme investments carry high risks; please be cautious.

4. This week, tokens such as TIA, OP, SUI, and IMX will face significant unlocks.

TIA will unlock approximately 176 million tokens at 20:00 on October 30, representing 80.13% of the current circulation, approximately $900 million;
OP will unlock approximately 31.34 million tokens at 08:00 on October 31, representing 2.50% of the current circulation, approximately $5.015 million;
SUI will unlock approximately 64.20 million tokens at 08:00 on November 1, representing 2.32% of the current circulation, approximately $112 million;
IMX will unlock approximately 32.47 million tokens at 08:00 on November 1, representing 1.98% of the current circulation, approximately $43.52 million.

Today’s Analysis of Bitcoin
Over the weekend, there was sideways movement, and the price of Bitcoin has once again approached around 68300. From a technical perspective, the current price is around 68050, experiencing some downward pressure due to the resistance at the top of the downward trend line. We are currently waiting for another test of this level. Observe whether there can be a breakout with volume to stabilize above the trend line. The intraday resistance is around 68500-68800, while the short-term support is in the 67000-67500 range. If we can break through the resistance and stabilize, pay close attention to the upper 4-hour structure around 69177. If successfully reached, a pullback could provide a buying opportunity, and the upward trend will remain strong. Continue holding the long position at 65684. For more details, see 🐷 page #比特币布林带收窄至低水平 #年底牛还熊？ #美国大选前行情观察 $BTC

2024.10.25 Market Analysis Today
Long Position Strategy: The current market aligns with expected trends, with the one-hour chart showing an upward structure. The four-hour K has not yet formed a top-bottom structure. If it breaks through the previous level around 69100, then the four-hour upward structure will be established. The support below is around 67000, which is a likely important opportunity for long positions. If the price is to continue a strong upward trend, it will start to rise around 67500 and will not reach 67000.

Short Position Strategy: If one wants to short on a rebound, the price must fall below the low around 66700, and the rebound must not exceed the previous high. Only then should one look for resistance levels to short. Currently, the focus remains on long positions in the context of a pullback.

News and Altcoin Recommendations:

1. Four-Star Consumer Confidence Index; although it is four stars, the expected impact on the market is not significant.
2. Net inflow of funds into BTC spot has significantly increased, with a net inflow of 76M USD in the last 24 hours. It has also been in a net inflow state this week.
3. The 24-hour trading volume of Jupiter DEX on the SOL chain exceeded 1.98 billion USD, with a market share hitting a historical high of 63.21%. Recent attention can be focused on the SOL ecosystem.

ETH, BTC Analysis
Macroeconomic: $BTC $ETH
1. Due to the rise in the US dollar index and bond yields, the performance of global financial market targets has been sluggish.
2. With the US elections approaching, the market is relatively cautious and conservative, reducing expectations for significant interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. According to CME's FedWatch tool, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at the Fed's meeting on November 7 has decreased from nearly certain last week to 87%.
3. Trump's leading position in online gambling polls has pushed the dollar to a two-and-a-half-month high, as his tariff and tax cut policies may imply stronger inflation and lead to higher US interest rates for a longer period.

Technical Analysis:
1. The daily chart shows two consecutive bearish candles, and there is a deformed bearish engulfing pattern. Today's closing is particularly critical— if it continues to close bearish, it will form a three black crows bearish formation; otherwise, it will give the bulls a chance to breathe.
2. In the short-term bearish trend, the important support and resistance levels are as follows:

Support 1: MA60 + EMA676 + 2500 integer level triple support resonance — strong support
Support 2: Mid-channel + EMA576 double support
Resistance: Short-term EMA + channel upper limit + MA120 triple resistance resonance — strong resistance

3. The 4H chart shows an inverted V pattern, which essentially indicates that prices will drop back to where they rose from — this suggests that there is still room for price adjustment.
4. From the wave perspective + EMA moving average perspective + Gann angle lines — the overall EMA indicators tend towards wide fluctuations, focusing on the B wave rebound after the A wave stabilizes, referencing Gann angle lines of 1/1 and 2/1 spacing (overlapping with the EMA moving average range).
5. In terms of indicators, the MACD fast line has crossed below the 0 axis, indicating weakening bullish signals; if it is to regain a bullish trend, it must quickly return above the 0 axis.

PS:
1. Aggressive long positions may carry downside risks, but risks and rewards coexist. If prices stabilize after falling, short-term profits can be captured, but there will be trial and error costs during this time.
2. Conservative long positions can avoid potential short-term downside risks, and it is logical to layout based on important support; however, the premise is that prices continue to adjust, otherwise it will be difficult to execute, and time costs will need to be incurred.
#美国大选前行情观察 #币安累计交易量突破100万亿美元 For more detailed strategies, follow the WeChat public account 'Prospective Exploration'.

Today's Analysis of Bitcoin
$BTC
The lowest point for Bitcoin has also reached around 66536. Even if Bitcoin retraces a bit more, it still remains in an upward trend.
Be a bit bolder; a downturn is an opportunity to accumulate. Bitcoin has strongly broken through on the weekly level. It is logical to first dip and then take off this week. The market is currently in a surging window, and looking to buy on a pullback is still the correct decision. If the price drops below 657 and stays there, it indicates that the market could potentially turn bad. Long strategy:

First support around 65700
Extreme support around 64000, this level represents a strong support area based on four-hour and daily resonance.
Currently, focus on the first support around 65700, at this position, the price should stop falling and look for important buying opportunities.
#抄底 #BTC走势预测

A and B sell baked buns, each selling 20 buns a day (the total demand for baked buns is only 40), priced at one yuan each, resulting in a daily output value of 40 yuan. Later, the two discussed and mutually traded 100 buns (A buys 100 from B, B buys 100 from A) using an accounting method, keeping the price unchanged, and the transaction volume increased to 240 yuan daily.
——Virtual economy has occurred
02 If the mutual selling price of buns is 5 yuan, then the transaction volume reaches 1040 yuan daily. At this point, A and B raise the market price of buns to 2 yuan. Some people, hearing that the buns are selling for 5 yuan each, quickly purchase when they see the market price is only 2 yuan.
——Bubble economy has occurred
03 The buns cannot be produced quickly, so they purchase future buns. A and B increase the quantity of buns made while also selling future buns and start issuing bun bonds, where purchasers use cash and also take out mortgage loans to buy.
——Financing, financial intervention
04 Some people wish to purchase but have neither cash nor collateral, so A and B issue subprime bun bonds and purchase insurance from insurance institutions.
——Subprime bonds sow the seeds of the subprime crisis
05 One day, customer C discovers that the buns they bought cannot be consumed, taking up space and risking mold, so they want to sell them off quickly, even at a low price.
——Bubble bursts
06 Thus, the financial crisis erupted, and the bun shop began laying off workers (only 40 buns a day are needed). Bun bonds also became worthless.
——Unemployment, subprime crisis
07 Mortgage loans (with worthless collateral) cannot be recovered, leading to liquidity risks for lending banks and bankruptcy risks for insurance companies.
——Financial crisis

Pay attention to the blue line range, you can buy more when the decline stops $BTC #BTC重返6W9

There have indeed been many large-scale crazes in the cryptocurrency field in the past, such as: Initial Coin Offering (ICO) in 2017, Decentralized Finance (DeFi) in 2020, Metaverse and Non-Fungible Tokens (NFT) in 2021, and Layer1 blockchain projects in 2021.
To compare the current Meme craze, we can analyze it from the following aspects:
1. Market size: The market size and number of participants of each craze are different. For example, the ICO craze attracted a lot of funds and projects, while the NFT craze attracted widespread attention in the field of art and collectibles.
2. Technological innovation: Each craze is accompanied by certain technological innovations. For example, the DeFi craze promoted the development of smart contracts and decentralized financial products, while Layer1 projects focused on improving the performance and scalability of blockchain.
3. Social impact: Some crazes have a profound impact on society. For example, the rise of the concept of the metaverse has made people think more about the virtual world and digital identity.
4. Sustainability: The sustainability of each craze is also different. Some crazes fade over time, while others continue to develop and become part of the industry.
5. Market reaction: The market reacts differently to each craze. Some crazes may quickly attract a lot of attention and funds, while others may take longer to gain market recognition.
Meme craze usually refers to cryptocurrency projects based on Internet culture and social media dissemination, such as Dogecoin. Such projects often gain attention quickly because of their unique cultural background and community support. Compared with the above crazes, the Meme craze may differ in market size, technological innovation, and social impact, but its rapid spread and community-driven characteristics make it a unique phenomenon. #meme超级周期

Ethereum market analysis
Ether's rising strength, now Bitcoin is 68,000, and Ethereum is still 2,600. It seems that this round of bull market is Bitcoin leading the cottage, and Ethereum is just stagnant. Are you still waiting for the trend?

Market analysis:
Ether is currently in a triangular oscillation. From the daily level, there is a sense of breaking through the oscillation. This week, the highest price reached around 2,688. Suppressed by the trend line, the breakthrough was resisted by the first support of the four-hour period. It rebounded to around 2,647 and fell again. The current price is around 2,590. It is currently in a sideways oscillation.
The pressure level is around 2,660-2,700, the first support is around 2,560, and the daily and hourly support resonates around 2,500. The support strength is very strong.

Trading ideas
Pay attention to the upper pressure level. Once the second peak is reached, the price will stagnate again near the pressure level. You can start to go short. The short-term target is around 2,560. The current price seems to have a second test of the first support of 4 hours around 2,560, and there is a phenomenon of stopping the decline near this position. You can go long with the trend, focusing on the daily and 4-hour levels. There are important long opportunities near the resonance level of 2500.
Summary: Focus on the callback low support and go long with the trend. Pay attention to the pressure level near the upper trend line. ETH 2570~2540 long, stop loss 2490 target 2623~2654

[Want to know the daily trend analysis of Ethereum, follow the public account "Foresight Exploration" to bring you the latest market analysis and accurate pin points every day. Leave a message in the comment area if you need a copycat point]

2024.10.17
Analysis of the recent market of Bitcoin:
Bitcoin tried to break through last night. It can be seen that the price came above 68,000, and the highest price reached 68,400. However, the selling pressure above 68,000 was still too strong. The price did not stand above 68,000 and fell quickly. So far, the market has been in a state of shock and decline, and the current price is around 67,300. From a technical analysis, the trend of breaking through 68,000 is a false breakthrough of the previous high point, but the result is a failure to break through.
Then the failure of the breakthrough will generally cause a decline, and the price may pull back to the blue support level. There is a picture in my group. The red line is the current key support position at the short-term level. If the price can stabilize at these support levels, I think there will be opportunities to continue to try to break through. Then from the daily level, yesterday's daily line continued to close with a positive line, but it is obvious that there is very strong resistance at this position. From the daily line, you can see a very obvious trend line suppression position. It has been suppressed by this trend line for more than half a year. The price has not been able to break through this place many times before, and then it caused a very huge decline. The price continued to hit new lows, and the lowest price was below 50,000. So imagine that if the price still fails to break through successfully this time, then I think it is very likely that the price will fall into a bear market. It is not impossible. Judging from the MACD indicator, it is obvious that this breakthrough is higher than the previous high point, and the corresponding macd fast and slow lines are opposite to the price. This is a typical macd top divergence trend, so it is bold to predict that once the breakthrough fails this time, it will easily become a bottomless pit. Personally, I think we are now at the watershed between bulls and bears, and there is a battle between bulls and bears. Therefore, look for opportunities to short near the high trend line. Once the entry conditions are met, you can try it. I personally think it is necessary. The current price is at a high level. Compared with going long, I personally prefer the short side. Chasing highs and probing the trend line three times, my view is that it is not very reasonable to open longs at present, and waiting for a pullback to open longs is the best policy.$BTC
#大盘走势