U.S. stocks last night: Dow Jones barely closed up 15 points, ending its longest losing streak in 50 years
Therefore, the U.S. stock market has (probably) stabilized, but it does not mean that the decline will end. The daily K has fallen below and a downward channel has been formed, but this does not mean that there will be no small rebound. Seizing every profitable small band is the focus now.
There are as many surprises and scares in the currency circle. The operation is not a script, just adapt to the situation.
20241220 Personal conclusions on the technical chart, though estimated, are not baseless emotional scripts.
- The ETH M bottom is forming, and it seems likely that it can hold and move up a bit in the coming days, but the subsequent performance depends on BTC. - BTC may experience low valley fluctuations or another sharp drop, but it’s best if it stabilizes above 97 or 98, otherwise altcoins will look even worse (assuming until early January). The MACD should create another small peak (note that this good news should be digested before the new administration takes over) before going into a deeper valley (at some point after the new administration takes over).
20241219 Trends do not make assumptions, only discuss actions (No accidental clicks, no bullish or bearish outlook! Just follow the indicators)
1. Take advantage of the pullback to clear out coins that are not resistant to declines, retrieve your chips, cutting losses is fine 2. If you feel you've cut too much, reflect on the points at which you bought; it's definitely due to chasing the rise; there are gains and losses for any coin 3. If all your buying points are high, start cutting from coins in sectors that may explode later; this must be researched on your own, listening to anyone promoting coins can lead to trouble 4. After completing the above actions, hold at most half of your position, or even just 30% to 40%, and wait to add more on dips; I personally operate BTC separately and view 'other coins' as positions 5. Select strong coins, such as ETH, SOL, SUI... as positions, followed by OM, OP, DOGE... depending on belief 6. The benefits of Trump’s presidency are also approaching, pay attention to the daily candles, buy on dips twice, and if you want to be meticulous, you can buy on dips several times, patience is key 7. The Christmas rally has indeed occurred quite frequently in the past decade, the period from now to Christmas is the first phase, and the period after the festival until New Year's Day is the second phase, with a maximum increase of 10% + 10%, totaling records exceeding 20%. But do not hold a gambling mentality; always pay attention to the daily candles, buy small on small dips and buy large on big dips 8. The market is still prone to spikes at any time; if you don't look at the technicals, at least know where the support and breakout points are, and then understand that both support and breakout are meant to be broken!
Current Situation: ETH has already fallen below the daily life line, and BTC may fall a day later. There’s no question of whether it will happen. Falling below the daily life line can declare the end of the upward trend, which started in October 2022. The depth and duration of this adjustment will be much greater than in March of this year.
When a downward trend is forming, don’t focus on support; there will only be pauses at the weekly and monthly life line positions, while other supports will be ineffective. It’s the same as with upward trends: during an upward trend, don’t look for resistance; resistance is meant to be broken. During a downward trend, don’t look for support; support is meant to be broken.