2024/6/12 - 6/14

2024/6/12
CPI is lower than expected, the actual 3.3, the expected 3.4, but the interest rate meeting is more hawkish. So it presents an upward pin. The upward certainty is still quite large, but the hawks are indeed a bit unpredictable. This led to the belief that the CPI was the bottom before it was announced, but it was not. The increase in long-term interest rates directly eliminated the positive effects of CPI.

2024/6/13
PPI is also lower than expected, but it is useless and continues to fall.

2024/6/14
Consumer confidence is weaker than expected. But it still has to fall.

In general, inflation continues to fall, consumer confidence continues to decline, but employment is still relatively strong, which is considered a soft landing. The United States is on its comfortable path, and the Federal Reserve only needs to talk.

At present, the currency circle is really bearish these days, and it is not sensitive to positive news. Let's wait until the next wave. Long-term expectations should not be defined by the Federal Reserve's mouth, but by economic data. The data is saying that it is possible to gamble on the increase

$BTC #$ETH

2024/5/31 9:27 utc+8

Last night, the US first quarter economic data was revised down. After $BTC $ETH went up and down, the upward trend continued.

The long orders were opened in a hurry, but fortunately they were not shaken out. I got some and gradually stopped profit. I picked it up at 3760, but the stop profit of half of the position was at 3830/3850, and I missed the stop profit position by a few points.

It collapsed at 3 am. What is the reason? Welcome to discuss

2024/5/30 12:37 utc+8

Volatility will increase today and tomorrow, seek information advantage, high risk, watch the market, choose the direction of the market

$BTC $ETH

Is the market bullish or bearish?

2024/5/24 22:26 utc+8

From yesterday to today, the market is weak. In the next week, we will see fluctuations. We should control our hands and not do anything randomly, or even not do anything.

From last night to today, the overall market is bearish. After 22:00 tonight, I saw the data from the University of Michigan and did not see the direction quickly. I closed the short order and opened a long position immediately. But the long position was not done well and was shaken out lightly.

Let's look at durable goods first. Durable goods consumption is resilient

The initial value of durable goods orders in the United States in April rose by 0.7% month-on-month, and the expected decline was 0.8%. The final value of March rose by 0.9%, and the initial value rose by 2.6%.
Among them, the initial value of durable goods orders excluding defense was flat month-on-month, and the final value in March rose by 2.3%, and the initial value rose by 2.3%; the initial value of durable goods orders excluding transportation rose by 0.4% month-on-month, and the expected increase was 0.1%. The final value in March was flat, and the initial value rose by 0.2%; the initial value of durable goods orders excluding aircraft non-defense capital goods rose by 0.3% month-on-month, and the expected increase was 0.1%. The final value in March fell by 0.2%, and the initial value rose by 0.1%.

Looking at Michigan again, inflation was revised down, and consumer expectations weakened

Data from the University of Michigan showed that consumers expect prices to rise at an annual rate of 3.3% next year, lower than the 3.5% expected earlier this month. They expect inflation to rise by 3% in the next 5 to 10 years, which is also lower than expected earlier this month and consistent with expectations in April.
This improvement may partly reflect the steady decline in gasoline prices this month. Although the final value of the consumer confidence index in May improved from the initial value, it still fell significantly by 8.1 points from April to a six-month low of 69.1.

The data is reasonable, and the economy is still resilient, but consumers are already worried or expectations have weakened. If you don't cry out in pain, you won't get any candy.

The market is volatile, and the linkage between $BTC and $ETH is still very strong. I am worried that there will be speculation on ETF issues in ETH. BTC is less risky, but not too safe. So try to control your hands and don't do it before the end of the month.

Are you bullish or bearish in the next week?

2024/5/23 22:21 utc+8

Whether or not a perfect storm can be achieved depends on the ETF results tonight. A small storm is coming, but if a storm comes, you can make money.

2024/5/23 22:02 utc+8

Last night, it was said: Ethereum's positive cashing (profit-taking) + the economy is stronger than expected

Tonight, it was indeed cashed. At 20:56, $ETH directly jumped from 3900 to around 3720, 180 points, and fell 4-5% in 1 minute. 50 million dollars broke this minute

First of all, the number of first-time unemployment claims last week came out tonight. On May 18, 215,000 people applied for it this week, with an expected 220,000, a previous value of 222,000, and an average of 219,800 in the past four weeks. It is worth mentioning that this is the lowest since April 27.

Later, the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI came to make up for it. 50.9, the highest since February, 50 in April. The service industry PMI is 54.8, the highest since 12 months, and the expected 51.3.

In short, the economy is stronger than expected. It seems that a perfect script has been written. Back to what I said at the beginning, the ETF benefits are realized + the economy is stronger than expected, so the inertia downward certainty after 21:45 should be very high.

It is recommended to do $BTC , not $ETH . ETH is greatly affected by the ETF news tonight.

Short-term positive news + stronger-than-expected economic data -- the best drama
$BTC $ETH #以太坊ETF批准预期

2024/05/18 Risk Control

2024/5/17 19:02 UTC+8

CPI data was released on the evening of the 15th, with a month-on-month increase of 0.3%, better than the expected 0.4%. Both BTC and ETH strengthened, with BTC being stronger.

The data on the number of initial unemployment claims was released on the evening of the 16th. 222,000 people were expected to apply for unemployment benefits this week on May 11, 220,000 people were expected to apply for unemployment benefits, and the previous value was 231,000 people. The economy was not stronger than expected. However, the market believes that the number of people did not increase further but decreased, so it weakened after the upward spike. . That's about it

In addition, the annualized total number of housing starts in April, the import price index, and the Philadelphia manufacturing index were also released on the 16th. Overall, the economy seems to be falling, but it seems to be trading inflation stickiness? ?

In short, the economic data and market reactions seem to be somewhat divergent in my opinion, and there are factors that I have not observed. The long-short game is very powerful, and you must be decisive and easy to lose money. . .

At about 2:30 pm on the 17th, there was another big rise. What is the reason for this?

$BTC $ETH

2024/5/6 23:26 utc+8

In theory, Auntie can hold her ground at 3070🌚🌚

2024/5/6 01:14 utc+8

$ETH The rise at 12 o'clock was still quite strong, reaching 3160+. The direction is unclear in the future, and the long-short game is fierce. Most of the positions are long with low positions above 3150 and have stopped profit.

Palestine and Israel are negotiating a ceasefire. It seems that Palestine wants to stop, but Israel does not. But Israel is still the younger brother of the United States, and it still has to give face to the big brother. Looking at these two countries alone, it feels that there will be no big things in the future. I hope other Middle Eastern countries will not make trouble again.

Make trouble-oil-producing countries are pulled down-oil prices rise-inflation, which is probably the logic. But the impact is limited, and core demand and employment may be more critical, and imported inflation has little impact on decision-making.

Let's see the shock in the future. Can we trade the expectation of interest rate cuts directly? It's not clear, and more news may be needed. If we can't see clearly, we won't do it, and we will talk about it when it becomes clear.

Make a decision around the 10th and see the direction.

2024/5/3 23:54 utc+8

Fortunately, I closed my short position in the early morning of May 2.

After the interest rate meeting, the rebound still came. It is true that the non-interest rate cut was traded in advance. The so-called short-term negatives are all out and it is a rebound.

Tonight, the non-agricultural employment data was released, 175,000 was far below expectations, and the market began to trade two interest rate cuts this year.

This wave of rebound is very certain. I do a lot of Ethereum, and I feel that there is no problem when I see around 3150.

The next interest rate meeting will be more than 40 days later. During this period, it is definitely not appropriate to do it with a medium-term short-selling mentality like I did in the first half of the month. My suggestion is to treat it as a volatile bullish.

$BTC $ETH #BTC走势分析

2024/5/1 15:25 utc+8
2024/4/17 View Tracking

Half a month ago, the view was bearish, which is relatively correct at present.

During the process, the US economic data was lower than expected, and the market wondered if it was going to stagflation.

There were also missiles fired between Iran and Israel, but it seemed that they were not really fighting.

The market was volatile, but the rebound was indeed not high. If you hold a medium-term bearish view in the past half month, you will not lose money with a high probability. For analysis of the process, see my previous tweets.

I think the rise of digital currencies since the end of last year does need a correction.

In the early morning, the Federal Reserve’s interest rate meeting was the last observation node I analyzed on April 17. There is a high probability that there will be no interest rate cut, which is bearish for digital currencies. I tend to stop profit around the early morning so that I can sleep well, and this negative news can actually be priced in in advance.

After that, there may be fluctuations and rebounds, and on the next interest rate meeting day, there will be no interest rate cut again...

$BTC $ETH #BTC下跌分析 #

2024/4/27 8:53 utc+8
2024/4/17 Opinion Tracking

The core PCE price index in March increased by 2.8% year-on-year, and the expected 2.7%.
Still slightly exceeded expectations.

The problem of rising inflation has been widely recognized, and there are also people talking about stagflation. At present, what should the Fed choose?

Cut interest rates? The Biden administration certainly hopes to cut interest rates, which is conducive to the election
Maintain stability or raise interest rates? Give inflation the last shot and show determination to fight inflation

No one knows how Big Brother will choose. It’s just that the market is trading from more than three interest rate cuts this year to one interest rate cut.

Is the currency circle aware of this problem? This is also the reason for the recent weakness.

In October 23, assets such as US bonds began to trade interest rate cuts, and interest rates began to strengthen again after December 23. Digital currencies also strengthened after October 23, but did not experience any correction.

After this correction, we will see the trading of inflation and interest rates. At present, we can't see the peak of interest rates, or the expectation of interest rate rise has not been completed, so let's continue to look at the bear market.

Record your own thinking logic and learn from you. Please communicate more in the comment area

#大盘走势 $BTC $ETH

2024/4/25 18:45 utc+8
2024/4/17 Summary of Views - Reflection

It has gone up in the past two days, and I hope to break this small platform. I don't know what the US first quarter economic data will be like soon, maybe it will be strong.

I didn't firmly add short positions on this rebound, and I was not decisive enough. The US economic data is uncertain, and the market volatility is bound to be relatively large.

This involves the relationship between buying (selling) and holding. The economic data has been quite disturbed in the past two days, and it has not reached my hitting zone to make buying and selling operations. I still have to follow the data and news more closely, so that the ambiguous chaotic area will be narrower.

$BTC $ETH #大盘走势

2024/4/22 9:16 utc+8
2024/4/17 Viewpoint Tracking-Reflection

The market has been fluctuating and strengthening in the past two or three days, which is a slight miss in the previous prediction.

In summary, the negative news appeared in the early stage, and the market repeatedly inserted needles to find the bottom. The negative news has entered a vacuum period in the past few days, and the market has a demand for a rebound.

In the future, the US economic data will still be released in a few days. Will it continue to strengthen? I still tend to strengthen. The stickiness of inflation is still relatively large. From a general logic, the decoupling of China and the United States will bring about a continuous increase in product costs.

If the economic data weakens and inflation concerns decrease, there may be a violent rebound.

Wait and see, I am currently betting on strengthening!

$ETH $BTC #大盘走势

2024/4/19 10:57 utc+8
Preliminary summary of views on 2024/4/17 - meet

These two days the market volatility is weak, halving the good cash + interest rate cut expectations decline.

A new point of concern: the Middle East. The friction between Iran and Israel did not end after Iran fired drones and missiles at Israel in the past few days. The previous market interpretation is that under the suppression of the United States, the two countries are unlikely to have a major conflict, and Iran's counterattack is mainly a face-saving project to deal with domestic public opinion.

But! Clashes resumed yesterday as Israel fired missiles at Iran, Syria and other countries. The price of crude oil skyrocketed.

Two logics, logic 1 Inflation logic should be a realistic deduction:
1. Rising crude oil - strong inflation - suppression of digital currency (currently a large probability deduction)

2. Capital hedging - Incremental capital pouring into digital currencies (unlikely in the short term, no incremental funds, and hedging to find gold, and the Middle East conflict is not a big risk of global economic crisis, the logic is easy to falsify)

In short, the current is still short, the next half month, first look at half, then look at the situation, and then look at the United States interest rate meeting.

How do you see the market deduction? Logic? The comments section welcomes communication

因中文内容无法发表，翻译为英文发表

# Bitcoin halving # market trend
$BTC $ETH

2024/4/17 23:49 utc+8

Bearish in the short term.

Two reasons:

1. The halving is already public information and has been priced. Don't bet on this news to bring a big rise before and after it is implemented. Go short if it rises.

2. The US interest rate cut has been postponed, non-agricultural and inflation are strong, and it is estimated that there is a high probability that there will be no interest rate cut in May and June.

The above two will form suppression within half a month, and there may be a rebound, but the height is not high and the strength is not strong.

How do you think BTC and ETH will go in the next half month? #比特币减半 #大盘走势 $BTC $ETH