概率交易法则

（1）看3-4调整，极限是180天，当前已完成的整个形态为平台形。
（2）该反转第2个推动接近尾声，推动之间没有良好的回撤，保持警惕。如果继续突破97800认为转强的可能性大，会继续形成更大级别的推动，否则视为反弹的可能性更大。
（3）从2月27日开始公布本人概率交易系统测算结果已大于70%，当时价格为84附近，提醒加大介入（2月25日提醒小级别做底可能，适当介入，价格为89附近；2月26日建议观察），实践证明本人创立的概率交易法则是行之有效的（这次本人都略微激进了些，在2月25日的89附近就提醒准备开始介入）。
说明：
（1）突破122630才能彻底否定强B浪。目前已突破1.7倍浪A，几乎可以否定。
（2）预测计算仅为个人爱好，没有交易建议。

(1) Looking at the 3-4 adjustment, the current overall shape is a platform shape, and wave C is exactly 1.618 times wave A, indicating the start of a reversal.
(2) This reversal 'seems' to have completed the first impulse, and if it starts to rise without a good retracement, it will be regarded as a rebound.
(3) When looking at the 3-4 adjustment, the probability of the entire adjustment rising is estimated at 85%.
(4) Recently, I have seen some doubts about the possibility of 3-2. Personally, I believe the probability is extremely low, for the following reasons:
a. If it is 3-2, the high point after the completion of the entire wave 3 may have approached 300,000;
b. There are many doubts about the wave structure;
c. According to past experience, there will be one more increase in the second half of the year;

(1) The touching of MA200 mentioned yesterday has been realized. We will see the 3-4 adjustment. Currently, it has retreated 0.5 times of the entire 3-3.
(2) The blue line adjustment is considered to be the end of the wedge, and the current entire adjustment is considered to be a platform.
(3) There are signs of bottoming out at a small level, and the probability of an upward adjustment is estimated to be 75%.
illustrate:
(1) Only when it breaks through 122630 can the strong wave B be completely negated. At present, it has broken through 1.7 times the wave A, which can almost be negated.
(2) The forecast calculation is for personal interest only and does not constitute trading advice.

(1) Currently, we see adjustments to Super 3-3-2 and Super 3-4. The possibility of 3-4 is slightly higher. If confirmed, the end of Wave 5 may be Super 3-1.
(2) The blue line adjustment is considered to be the end of the wedge. The entire adjustment may have ended, or part of the adjustment has ended.
(3) If the current pattern is the complete pattern of adjustment and is at 3-4, there is a risk of touching MA200 (not certain, as time goes by, the price may be around 82,500), and usually wave 5 is less than wave 3 (wave 5 is already 0.7 times wave 3), so taking both into account, we can only say that it may end.

(1) Currently looking at super 3-3-2 and super 3-4 adjustments.
(2) The last small-level push did not form a larger level push, making it more reasonable to view it as a rebound. Continue looking for the endpoint, which may find support at 90500.
(3) Many people always want to know the precise result. There is no way in the world to know the precise result. Even institutions and organizations that hold accurate intelligence, such as countries, cannot accurately predict what will happen next year. Therefore, it is only necessary to operate in a general direction. For example, currently operating under 3-3-2 and defending with 3-4.
Description:
(1) Only by breaking through 122630 can the strong B wave be completely denied. It has now broken through 1.7 times wave A, which can almost be negated.

（1）Currently looking at Super 3-3-2 and Super 3-4 adjustments.
（2）If it is Super 3-3-2, the adjustment after 109800 can only be an ending wedge (red line), with wave 5 greater than 0.8 times wave 4 being satisfied [satisfied].
（3）If it is Super 3-4, it may be a triangle adjustment pattern (blue line) [the endpoint has been found]. If it is this kind of pattern, it is possible that after the end of wave 5, it merely completes Super 3-1.
（4）Super 3-3-2 and Super 3-4 adjustments have met the possible endpoints, currently the two cannot be distinguished, but if it continues to fall below 91000, the latter is excluded. However, a push wave has emerged, and the possibility of continuing to fall is low.

（1）Currently, it looks like a super 3-3-2 and a super 3-4 adjustment.
（2）The Y wave of super 3-3-2 (multiple serrated, triangle, platform shape) has been negated in terms of time rules, leaving only the possibility of a terminal wedge (red line). Wave 5 of the terminal wedge must be greater than 0.8 times wave 4.
（3）The second possibility is the super 3-4 triangle adjustment pattern (green line, with point E corrected, but the endpoint has not yet been found). If this is the case, it is possible that after the end of wave 5, it has only completed the super 3-1.
（4）If it falls below 91000, it would be a super 3-3-2.
Explanation:
（1）Breaking through 122630 would completely negate the strong B wave. It has currently broken through 1.7 times wave A, which can almost be negated.

(1) Currently, we are looking at adjustments to Super 3-3-2 and Super 3-4.
(2) The Y wave of super 3-3-2 (multiple zigzags, triangles, and flats) is negated in terms of time rules, leaving only the possibility of a terminal wedge (red line). The end of wave 5 of the terminal wedge may end slightly beyond the end of wave 3.
(3) The second possibility is the super 3-4 triangle adjustment pattern (green line, thanks to a blogger for reminding me yesterday). If it is this pattern, it is possible that after the 5th wave ends, it only completes the super 3-1.
(4) The number of waves in the wave theory is diverse and open. It is only reasonable but not absolute. We welcome everyone to continue to provide valuable suggestions.

(1) Currently, it looks like a super 3-3-2 and super 3-4 adjustment. The latter possibility is small.
(2) Wave Y must end before 22:00 on February 22, otherwise the time exceeds the rules.
(3) If it is a super 3-3-2, the endpoint of Wave Y is more likely to be at point E on the orange line, otherwise, it is still in Wave B and time may not be sufficient. The requirement for this wave form is that it must not break through the starting point of Wave D at 94700. Otherwise, there is a possibility of further breaking below 89000.
Description:
(1) Only by breaking through 122630 can we completely negate the strong Wave B. Currently, it has broken through 1.7 times Wave A, which can almost be negated.
(2) Prediction calculations are only personal hobbies, and there are no trading suggestions.

(1) Currently, it seems that super 3-3-2 and super 3-4 adjustments are possible, with the latter being less likely.
(2) Wave Y must end before February 22 at 22:00, otherwise, it exceeds the time rules.
(3) If it is a super 3-3-2, the end point of wave Y is more likely to be at the end of the blue line (around 91000) or point E of the orange line; otherwise, it is still in wave B and time may not be enough. If it is the former, we are already in a new upward trend.
Note:
(1) Only by breaking 122630 can we completely negate the strong wave B. It has already broken 1.7 times wave A, which can almost be negated.
(2) The predictive calculations are purely personal hobbies and do not constitute trading advice.

（1）Currently, the super 3-3-2 and super 3-4 adjustments are being observed, with the latter being less likely. The probability of dropping below 89 is negligible.
（2）On February 7, it was predicted that support might be regained around 93500; today it fell to around 94700, found support, and began to rebound. Breaking 99200 is expected to further form wave B and continue to break through 102500.
（3）The current downturn must end before February 12, or it will further decline.
Explanation:
（1）Only by breaking 122630 can we completely negate the strong wave B. Currently, it has broken the 1.7 times wave A, which can almost be negated.
（2）The predictive calculations are merely a personal hobby and do not constitute trading advice.

(1) Currently observing a super 3-3-2 and a super 3-4 adjustment; the latter is less likely.
(2) The probability of falling below 89 is negligible.
(3) The current downturn must end by February 12, or it will decline further.
Note:
(1) Breaking 122630 would completely negate the strong wave B. It has currently broken the 1.7 times wave A, which can almost be negated.
(2) The predictive calculations are purely for personal interest and do not constitute trading advice.

(1) Currently, we observe a super 3-3-2 and a super 3-4 adjustment, with the latter being less likely.
(2) The probability of being below 89 is extremely low.
(3) There is a possibility of continuing to dip in the short term, expected to regain support around 93500.
Note:
(1) Only by breaking 122630 can we completely negate the strong B wave. It has currently broken 1.7 times wave A, which can almost be negated.
(2) The forecast calculations are just a personal hobby and do not constitute trading advice.

（1）Currently, the super 3-3-2 and super 3-4 adjustments are being considered, with the latter being less likely.
（2）The second segment of the adjustment (orange line) is above the first segment (cyan line), which is a lateral adjustment. The recent decline's retracement is close to 0.618, indicating a strong retracement.
（3）The recent decline is close to the 120-day moving average (blue line), which already meets the adjustment requirements of super 3-3-2.
（4）Points (2) and (3) indicate that the probability of falling below 89 is extremely low.
Explanation:
（1）Breaking 122630 is necessary to completely negate the strong B wave. It has currently broken through 1.7 times wave A, which can almost be negated.

In 2021, I shared the content about position risk classification in my trading system with everyone for free. Until yesterday, I saw the collapse of a group of people. It seems that few people absorb the dry goods. Share it again (sorted by position risk from small to large):
(1) Mainstream spot goods;
(2) Mainstream contracts;
(3) Non-mainstream spot goods;
(4) Non-mainstream contracts;
I found that those who complained bitterly basically held positions in (3) and (4). By the way, contracts are a supplement to spot trading, not a tool for getting rich quickly. Only by grasping this understanding can you make money with contracts.

——Today's Quotes
$BTC
On August 15, I reminded you to enter half of U, with an average price of about 58,800. Currently, I have held 93% of the position to date.

1. Short-term cycle: There is still a high possibility of rising. It is currently impossible to determine whether the rise from 49 is a push or an adjustment. From the perspective of form, it seems to be more in line with the adjustment wave.

2. Long cycle: The weekly line begins to converge, but the monthly line is still downward.
Note: Although the position is basically full, the author has always insisted that the adjustment time may be until September, so we need to be extra careful next time. Of course, try not to think about the price below 40,000. Even if I reduce my position, I should maintain more than 80% of my position.

——Today's Quotes
$BTC

(1) Double sawtooth decline: Y>1.618W, first to 52300, in line with my reminder in the group to buy the bottom of the full warehouse at 53000. Later, in order to blow up the long position, the market maker forced the price to fall to 49000, which was a bit beyond my expectation, but it just confirmed what I said a long time ago that it would return to the upward channel (blue dotted line). At present, it is basically in the lower channel.
(2) Of course, a full position around 53,000 is also a good point (I have reminded you in the previous fragmentary that I bought some spot with a small position, planning to trade in a short period of time, but it did not succeed because I did not expect the market to be so fierce). This time, the bottom-fishing is still considered to be a rebound, and the target position is around 57,000.

——Today's Quotes
$BTC

The stronger support level of 58,000 mentioned last time has been reached. The double zigzag decline has basically formed. There is a high possibility of a short-term rebound from the decline of 70,050 (of course, the more certain support is at 53,000). You can increase your positions appropriately here, and the expected target is around 62,000.

——Today's Quotes
$BTC

1. On July 26, I bought Ether at the ETH/BTC exchange rate of around 0.048 (see the previous post), and sold it at around 0.050 on the 31st. 50% of my spot positions made a profit of 4%, and I continued to work towards the direction of "hoarding in a bear market and selling in a bull market". I have been trading this pair since last year, and roughly estimated that the accumulated profit has exceeded 30%.
2. There are many possible short-term trends in the market recently, which cannot be analyzed accurately. In the long run, the pessimistic view from last time is still maintained. Please be patient and wait for the direction.