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The current mainstream view in the market is that since the debt levels of major countries have reached unprecedented levels, the probability of a debt crisis in the next few years exceeds 80%, which will lead to varying degrees of decline in the value of some currencies. Therefore, some large institutions have invested heavily in hard currency-gold, and some of them have invested in $BTC billion-dollars, including the founder of the famous Bridgewater Fund. There are also some bigwigs who do not support investing in big bills-Peter, who also hopes that the Biden administration can sell big bills to reduce the deficit before Trump takes office. No matter how the market views big bills, from the current logic of big bills rising, it is necessary to pay close attention to the bond markets of major global countries next year, which may produce certain linkages.
1. There are fewer instances of market trends before Christmas and the increase is limited: The crypto market has seen the occurrence of 'Santa Claus rally' less frequently in the week before Christmas, happening only 5 times in the past decade, with an increase ranging from 0.15% to 11.56%.
2. Market corrections in specific years: Before Christmas in 2017, the crypto market experienced the largest correction, dropping by 12.12%, which was due to the price crash following the ICO boom that year. The corrections before Christmas in other years were smaller. The market also corrected after Christmas in 2021 and 2022, with declines of 5.30% and 1.90% respectively.
3. A few years had market trends both before and after Christmas: In the past decade, only 2016, 2018, and 2023 experienced 'Santa Claus rallies' both before and after Christmas. Before Christmas in 2016, the total market capitalization of the crypto market increased by 11.56%, and after Christmas, it rose by 10.56%; although the market was in a correction throughout 2018, there were mild increases of 1.31% and 4.53% before and after Christmas respectively; in 2023, under the backdrop of a bear market recovery, there was a rise of 4.05% before Christmas and 3.64% after Christmas.
4. December market performance is extreme: In contrast, the overall performance of the crypto market in December is more extreme. In the past decade, there were five years when the market overall grew between 16.08% and 94.19% in December, while in the other five years of correction, the decline ranged from 1.73% to 15.56%. Overall, the 'Santa Claus rally' in the crypto market is unstable, with significant performance differences, making it hard to predict.
Last night, Bitcoin also rose by five thousand points, directly from 94259 to 99450, still not breaking through 100,000. It is likely a false signal. Looking at the one-hour trend, each bullish candle is higher than the last, but the trading volume has not followed the K-line trend. What does this indicate? Volume is the best reflection of market liquidity and cannot be manipulated. This suggests that the market makers are intentionally pushing the price up to create a false sense of high. Today is also Christmas, and the coins that were supposed to rise have all risen and are in place. Next, it’s better to avoid risks, as Bitcoin rising alone is not a good sign.
After this wave of correction is in place, we can consider entering the market again. It is expected that Ethereum's performance will be more impressive than BTC next year. Bitcoin has risen so much while Ethereum has not moved, so it's wise to avoid risks. In the coming days, it is very likely that there will be another wave of selling against the long positions. The Bitcoin ETF is still experiencing net outflows; how can it still rise? It doesn't make sense. I still maintain that Bitcoin will correct to 90,000, reserving 3-5 layers of positions to wait.
The shortened trading day for U.S. holidays kicks off the Santa Claus rally with great enthusiasm. The Dow Jones index rose by about 391 points, an increase of 0.9%, closing at 1 PM Eastern Time. The S&P 500 index rose by 1.1%, and the Nasdaq Composite index rose by 1.4%.
In October 2024, driven by buybacks led by Apple, Google, and Meta, there has been a historic surge in U.S. stock buybacks, pushing the total buyback amount in the U.S. stock market to over $1 trillion. This is the biggest driving force for extending the U.S. bull market and continuously setting new highs. As long as a third world war does not break out, will the U.S. stock market continue to rise next year?
Trump's rise to power aims to strengthen and expand America. The top seven tech giants continue to grow in strength, U.S. stocks continue to rise, the bull market continues, and the cryptocurrency bull market also continues. Currently, there are still 302 days until the end of the bull market cycle. Therefore, after the surge in January, BTC's price should be between $120,000 and $150,000. If Trump has substantial documents and policies regarding Bitcoin's national strategic reserve plan, it is not impossible for BTC to break through $200,000. Currently, BTC is in a corrective and fluctuating market, with many altcoins rebounding from the bottom. If another downward pullback occurs, one must be brave enough to accumulate at lower levels. In the future, many altcoins will see increases of 3-5 times. Trump is the most friendly president to the stock market and digital currency; our profits in the cryptocurrency space are just following the trend, aided by timing, location, and harmony. This wave of bull market will definitely push BTC to the sky, and the season for altcoins will definitely come. Everyone should accumulate at lower levels, hold their coins for appreciation, and stay tuned. $BTC #比特币战略储备 #“圣诞老人行情”再现
cow is the favorite of the American president, a line through the sun, thousands of troops come to meet, listen to the command to earn more rice, cow bought at the head, currently up 38%
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COW, a decentralized DeFi token. Currently, it appears to have broken through the previous high with increased volume. The market outlook remains bullish. You can place orders in batches at 0.8073 and 0.7720. Set the stop loss around 0.76. There is no resistance above. $COW $BTC
The essence of trading - waiting The essence of trading - what are you waiting for? 1. Wait for callbacks for trending 2. Wait for highs and lows for oscillating 3. Wait for rebounds for volume 4. Wait for breakthroughs for retracements 5. Wait for reversals for bottom-picking and top-touching There is one thing that the market cannot deceive people That is, volume reduction. K-line can be faked Volume can be faked through counter-trading Volume reduction cannot be faked for Wei Du Relying on this point, you can be invincible Read more, learn more, think more, Improve your cognition What is the advanced realm of trading? Stay away from noisy environments, stay away from complex information, and only rely on your own judgment. There is no noise, only daily market review and replay. Less fear More purity Be as calm as water The simpler and purer, the more successful.