Historical data shows that since 2017, the market performance in September has been unsatisfactory every year. So will this cycle repeat?
Technical chart level:
Since the wave of positive stimulus on August 29, according to the 123 rule, the fall below the trend line mentioned last week has been completed. The rebound has not broken through the previous high. There is still a final wave to fall below the previous low, and this round of bull market can be declared. The market is over.
In the medium term, the rebound point of the band is around 2.2w
Data level:
The stock of stablecoins has been slowly declining, and liquidity is gradually drying up.
Macro level:
September is also the time when the FED or Federal Reserve releases the unemployment index, GDP or interest rates. At a recent Jackson Hole event, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said the Fed is likely to "continue to push interest rates higher multiple times." This could lead to a flight of funds from an already illiquid market.
1. What are ETFs? What is a Bitcoin spot ETF? ETF is the abbreviation of Exchange Traded Fund, which is a type of fund that allows investors to invest in a variety of stocks, bonds, commodities and other assets by purchasing fund shares, thereby achieving asset diversification and risk control. Unlike traditional funds, ETFs can be bought and sold on the stock exchange. Compared with ordinary funds, the trading method is more flexible, the investment threshold is lower, and the liquidity is higher.
As we all know, most of our daily investments in Bitcoin are purchased on centralized exchanges. As long as we buy it on a regular exchange, we buy genuine Bitcoin spot prices, and the Bitcoin spot ETF is based on the Bitcoin spot price. ETF, which trades at the same price as the Bitcoin spot market price. Investors can obtain investment income from Bitcoin by purchasing shares of Bitcoin spot ETFs without having to directly purchase and hold Bitcoin.
Let’s talk about the options for short selling in the second half of the year: Those who have followed me before should know that I have been calling for shorting $LTC and the exchange rate LTC/BTC since 90-100, because the logic is very clear, which is based on the deduction of previous cycles and the expectations of speculation. Now open the K-line of various altcoins, and you will know which coins are still in an overvalued position. To put it simply, the two are $BCH and $MKR . One is due to the POW hype, and the expectation has long since passed. The currency price has been falling, and there is another Hyping buybacks, in fact the founder must be selling with his left hand and his right hand. If he really wanted to buy the deal, why didn't he secretly raise funds? There are countless such logics. There are 10,000 coins that can be shorted and their value will return. If you like it, I will talk about it tomorrow.
I think it is understandable to judge the bulls and bears in terms of time cycles, but to judge Bitcoin according to the increase multiple is against the objective development laws of things.
During the last round of 6w9, many people said that the top was not reached. The reason was that the distance from the bull top in 2017 was only more than 3 times, which was far more than before. This is like a primary school student looking for numerical patterns, ignoring the essence behind the data, funds, and liquidity. .
Everything has a development cycle. When you were 12-13 years old, you grew ten centimeters a year. Does that mean you will be 3 meters tall after the age of 30? Obviously not.
Bitcoin's current size has passed its adolescence and is gradually growing and maturing. Future fluctuations will be more stable and the consensus will be stronger. $BTC
Speculating in currencies means placing more orders and seizing opportunities when the market is good, and giving up when the market is bad. I think that many copycat projects are now rushing to sell products. If there is an opportunity, they will follow the dealer more and quit soon. Don’t eat the last fish tail. Often, greed for the last bit will kill you. $BLZ $CYBER $TRB
I really admire those fund bloggers on Weibo. They play with public funds, add and reduce positions every three days, and index funds. They can analyze things clearly and logically. The most ridiculous thing is that Liek believes this. I found that fund bloggers They are the group with the largest traffic among Weibo financial bloggers, and the threshold is the lowest. . .
Everyone has felt the market situation this year. Key news is always released at critical moments, and they are violently smashed. It is conceivable that with the addition of various capital giants, the game will become more and more difficult. This is just the beginning. . The currency circle is originally a zero-sum game market. Some people make money while others lose money. Moreover, in this 24-hour casino, it is much easier to rely on news to manipulate. But the good news is that those who have survived this round of bear market and are still here will most likely be able to reap the next round of dividends. The ones who will suffer the most will probably be those who enter the market in the next wave. keep on the table! $BTC $CYBER
Some people say that Buffett was born in China and couldn't achieve his current achievements. Then you underestimate Buffett. If he was born in China, there is a high probability that he would discover that there are so many excellent companies in the United States, and then find ways to run. A country that can invest in U.S. stocks; no matter how bad it is, he can still become one of the many "Chinese Buffetts" by investing in A-shares. There may be detours along the way, but all roads lead to the same goal. Knowing where to hunt and when to hunt is the basic quality of a good hunter. I believe that most Chinese people in the currency circle have the experience of investing in A-shares. I entered the currency circle from A-shares. Compared with A-shares, I feel that the currency circle is in a relative dividend period and the information is more transparent. , there are more opportunities for ordinary people, rather than a meat grinding ground like A-shares where retail investors provide liquidity to capital.
This week the SEC must make a decision on 6 spot BTC ETF applications, including BlackRock’s, do you think they will pass? If it passes, it basically means all are passed, and if it is rejected, it means all are rejected. My opinion is that no matter whether it is announced to be passed or rejected at this position, it will not be of any benefit to the main funds, so the decision will most likely be postponed.
He came out after calling for thousands of times, still half-hiding his face with his pipa in his arms 4.8% of the supply of sui will be unlocked and enter the circulation market on September 3. However, at the current currency price, we really don’t see the project party’s desire to sell it. Is it a way to use $APT to release news? Otherwise it’s really hopeless $SUI
Why would anyone think that fair launch of tokens is beneficial to retail investors? Can you make money without a banker? Quite the opposite. You can make money from many copycats because you caught the dividends during the period when the main force was pulling the market for shipments. The banker eats the meat and you eat the soup. The money you earn from the copycat comes from the retail investors who later took over. So in principle, if you are not the project party, you are not the main force, but as long as you are better than the other 80% of retail investors in terms of means, it is enough. Whether it’s insider information, poor information, data analysis capabilities, or technical analysis capabilities. On the other hand, if there are no bankers and all the currency holders are retail investors, do you think everyone can work together to attract people to take over the market? Learn about the Prisoner's Dilemma. In a bull market, this cycle will be longer so most people can more or less catch it and pocket it, or at least have been able to catch it. When the market is not good, this cycle will be relatively short, and some project parties will use any means. For example, $APT used the extremely low-low method of cooperating with Microsoft to complete the change of hands within 15 minutes.
A young man who traded in cryptocurrencies in a county: He lost a lot of money and owed a loan of 130,000 yuan, and returned to the construction site to pay off the debt
Getting rich overnight is just a myth
24-year-old Yang Yi is the most ordinary young man in the county. After dropping out of high school, he followed his parents to a construction site in the city. He might work like this for more than ten years, save money to build a house in his hometown, marry a wife and have children, and then return to the construction site to continue working, like his father.
But the emergence of virtual currency was the biggest change in his life.
Yang Yi follows people on the Internet to speculate in Bitcoin. He plays with contracts. He can use leverage to "buy coins" and earn profits by predicting the rise and fall of currencies. For Yang Yi, who does not have enough capital, this is a way to play with a lower threshold, but the risks and opportunities are equally great.
The leading social protocol @CyberConnectHQ $CYBER raised more than 30 million yuan and was endorsed by Binance. It has been developing for almost two years. After the V3 upgrade, it has made breakthroughs in terms of usage thresholds, multi-chain account universality, convenient interaction, and creator monetization. However, The market value is only over 50 million, which is not even as good as some plates and memes. Tell me what is the blockchain revolution?
There is little discussion about $INJ in China, but if you open the K-line chart and see, this currency has been in an independent bull market for almost a whole year this year. It is very worthy of attention. I have also done some research#NFA#DYOR
For You Information:
1. Basic concepts of INJ
2. Special advantages of INJ
3. After the release of INJ 2.0, the impact of the new destruction mechanism on currency prices
4. Recent currency price performance and unlocking status
@Injective_
Is a layer 1 blockchain optimized specifically for DeFi applications built using the Cosmos SDK. The biggest feature is that it allows third-party exchanges to be built on Injective without permission. INJ uniquely provides plug-and-play financial infrastructure, such as high-performance on-chain decentralized trading infrastructure, decentralized cross-chain bridges, oracles. Machines power the next generation of DeFi applications.
Wall Street reports are vague. Musk cleared the position #BTC . He did not say when the position was cleared, but it was definitely not yesterday. In other words, the clearance is a fact. The selling pressure has been priced in. In a bear market, confidence is more valuable than gold.
The discussion on Twitter about the sluggish hair-raising industry also triggered some thoughts on my part. I would like to record it on the occasion of the SEI and CC airdrops. Everyone is welcome to exchange and discuss.
content include:
1. Understand the logic of web3 project airdrop from the perspective of web2
2. Three questions about hair-raising
3. Profit-loss ratio analysis
——Understanding the logic of web3 project airdrops from the perspective of web2. Regarding the nature of token airdrops, I will think about and understand them through web2 products. For example, in the early "Hundred Regiments War", all apps will give you free red envelope coupons. Activities such as free takeout for the first time can attract a large number of seed users in a short period of time. On the one hand, user data can be used as results to attract financing. On the other hand, users' usage habits will also provide feedback to promote continuous iterative updates of the product. Similarly, the web3 project also requires user data for financing and as a bargaining chip in negotiations with exchanges. Providing a certain degree of incentives to past ecological builders and contributors will stimulate users' enthusiasm for participating in projects and encourage more builders to participate in the ecosystem. After users obtain airdrop tokens, they can trade in the secondary market, and transactions are active. The degree and liquidity will be greatly improved, and high-frequency transaction changes will also bring market attention. Secondly, these tokens may be used in various scenarios in the project ecology, such as staking, voting, trading, etc., which will help To promote the prosperity and development of the project ecology and lay the foundation for the long-term development of the project. To sum up, these interests drive project parties to share success with users in the form of airdrops. Then the question arises. If you are a project party, when there is a lower cost to maintain ecological construction, or when airdrops will only produce marginal benefits. Will you change your mind when you see benefits?
This is the widely circulated bear market bible "Stages of Bear Market"
At present, with the addition of new narratives in each bull-bear cycle, the bear market Bible will be updated. It is recommended to add two sections: killing NFTs and killing Lumao Party. I just don’t know if I should insert it into the last two steps, and I don’t know. Know what else can be killed 😅
Burry shorts US stocks again? A look back at the history of the Big Short
——————————————————————
Michael Burry Just Shorted the Market for $1.6B
Bought $890M in $SPY puts
Bought $740 million in $QQQ puts
93% of his entire portfolio
————————————————————
Many people are unfamiliar with Burry. Today I will take you to take a look at the life experience of the big short:
early life
Michael Burry was born in San Jose, California in 1971.
When he was two years old, he lost the vision in one eye due to cancer. Since then, he has been wearing an artificial eyeball. In Michael's world, he can only see clearly with one eye.