LIVE八哥谈币
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I am very confused now. I am confused not only because I am making more and more money, but also because I see people around me seem to have the ability to predict the future, and they are either buying at the bottom or buying at the top. I am lonely and helpless like a primitive man. Whatever I buy goes up. I learn virtual currency from others. They lose nine out of ten, but I buy ten out of ten and they all take off. I really start to doubt my IQ. The friends in the group born in the 90s and 00s are all A3 and A4 level. I really wonder what is wrong with this world. People all over the world have lost money and become beggars, but I am still making money.
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In 278 BC, a poet used leverage to buy the currency issued by the State of Chu. As a result, the currency fell sharply for 5 out of 5 days and his position was liquidated: he was very desperate, and he was willing to accept the loss and jumped into the river.
In order to warn future generations, people used green zong leaves to wrap red pork, and then tied it with ropes to express the meaning of yin wrapping yang and being trapped. Later, in order to commemorate him, cryptocurrency speculators from all over the country had to eat a zongzi on the Dragon Boat Festival, because the first step of eating zongzi is to untie the rope, which means to get rid of the trap, and then remove the zong leaves (green), and then eat the meat, which means that cryptocurrency speculators can get rid of the trap and eat meat from now on
#内容挖矿
In order to warn future generations, people used green zong leaves to wrap red pork, and then tied it with ropes to express the meaning of yin wrapping yang and being trapped. Later, in order to commemorate him, cryptocurrency speculators from all over the country had to eat a zongzi on the Dragon Boat Festival, because the first step of eating zongzi is to untie the rope, which means to get rid of the trap, and then remove the zong leaves (green), and then eat the meat, which means that cryptocurrency speculators can get rid of the trap and eat meat from now on
#内容挖矿
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I am very confused now. I am confused not only because I am losing more and more money, but also because I see people around me seem to have the ability to predict the future, and they are either buying at the top or buying at the bottom. I am lonely and helpless like a primitive man. Whatever I buy falls. I learn virtual currency from others. They buy 10 and make 9 profits, but I buy 10 and 10 lose 0. I really start to doubt my IQ. The friends in the group born in the 90s and 00s are all A8 and A9 level. I really wonder what is wrong with this world. Everyone in the world has become rich, but I am still losing money#内容挖矿
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At first, people just thought that BTC had a small correction and was still in a bull market... until BTC fell below 60,000. 50,000. 30,000. 10,000... 5,000...
10 years later, when the child asked, "Dad, did Bitcoin really reach 73,777?"
You who are moving bricks at the construction site: "Yes, child, although Bitcoin is only $100 now, Dad really bought 73,777$ Bitcoin"
10 years later, when the child asked, "Dad, did Bitcoin really reach 73,777?"
You who are moving bricks at the construction site: "Yes, child, although Bitcoin is only $100 now, Dad really bought 73,777$ Bitcoin"
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Today is the 28th day of March. I still haven’t made any money today. I still don’t have anyone to help me make big money. I am very hungry, but I only have enough money to buy half a steamed bun. What should I do after eating this half steamed bun? ? I was confused. I didn't dare to swallow it in big mouths, I just dared to slowly suck in the fragrance it gave off, which was enough to not feel hungry. In the past month, I was very satisfied. I can still go out to restaurants 2 or 3 times a year, and after excluding the expenses, I can sometimes still have a balance of twenty or thirty. Ever since I met you, I have begun to doubt life. You are making tens of thousands or hundreds of thousands of dollars a day just by talking about it. When I see you I often can't sleep at night because of making money. Sometimes I even suspect that the world is fake. Why is this happening? I'm so hungry.
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You bought a bunch of inscriptions and returned to your hometown in embarrassment. The village chief said you were in the wrong village. Your parents made you kneel in the middle of the ancestral hall. They told you to stand while eating the banquet and don’t talk. The big fish and meat were placed farthest away from you. The cousin sister-in-law you met gave you a piece of ginger and said that you were not as good as Mr. Zhang, the low-income person next door.
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It is inevitable to have some world-changing ideals in childhood, and the process of maturity is constant compromise. Compromise itself means respecting the ideals of others. Under the collision of childhood ideals of all parties, the Pareto optimality of Nash equilibrium is obtained. A great man may not be the sexiest ideal, but he must be the gardener behind the flower that can cultivate a flower that thrives in complex soil. The journey from a dreamer who blooms alone to a simple gardener may be the age of 30 when his personality is formed. The era defines the wave, which is fate: the wave drives genius, which is luck, and genius compromises to produce the best, which is creation, and the group of people who condense the best is the stars in the sky. May you all be like a ball of fire when gathered together, and may the sky be filled with stars when scattered. #内容挖矿
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Forwarded by group friends Gambler’s Ruin is a basic concept in probability theory.
The general idea is that a gambler should not rush to compete with the casino. Gamblers cannot compete with casinos in terms of resources, unless they have unique skills. Otherwise the winner will always be the casino and the gambler will go bankrupt sooner or later.
Give a simple example:
David versus Goliath. David has a higher skill level than Goliath, but Goliath has more resources.
Let's say David has $2,000 and Goliath has $10,000.
David's winning rate is 55%, and Goliath's winning rate is 45%.
In each game, the loser must spend 1,000 yuan until one of the parties goes bankrupt and is eliminated.
To make the opponent bankrupt, Goliath only needs to win 2 games and David needs to win 10 games.
Is David’s slightly higher winning rate enough to overcome the 1:5 financial disadvantage and win?
Mathematicians calculated that David only had a 36% chance of winning, and Goliath had a 64% chance of winning.
Therefore, David, who has a slight advantage in skills but few resources, has a very low winning rate.
But if David's skill level is much higher than Goliath's, and he has an 80% winning rate, then he has a 94% probability of winning.
From the gambler's bankruptcy theorem, we can derive some life principles:
1. Try to use probability analysis as much as possible in life, business and investment to improve your decision-making ability.
2. If the other party has more resources than me, we should evaluate whether we have an absolute advantage in capabilities. If you only have a 50% winning rate, never accept the challenge rashly.
3. Small, low-cost attempts can increase the possibility of success.
For example, in the case of David Goliath, if each game was worth 100 yuan instead of 1,000 yuan, and all other conditions remained unchanged, David's probability of winning would increase to 98%!
Amazon’s Bezos understands this. He is willing to experiment on many innovative projects with limited investment. If he fails, he will suffer little loss, but if he succeeds, he will gain huge profits. In the same way we invest, we might as well boldly buy innovative stocks with large room for appreciation but limited decline in small amounts.
4. If possible, avoid zero-sum games.
Gambler's Destruction is a zero-sum game, either you lose or you win.
Changing a condition, if the winner gets 2 yuan and the loser only loses 1 yuan, in this positive-sum game, both parties may gain something or at least survive, allowing the game to continue indefinitely.Players will even pay to participate in such a positive-sum game. #内容挖坑
The general idea is that a gambler should not rush to compete with the casino. Gamblers cannot compete with casinos in terms of resources, unless they have unique skills. Otherwise the winner will always be the casino and the gambler will go bankrupt sooner or later.
Give a simple example:
David versus Goliath. David has a higher skill level than Goliath, but Goliath has more resources.
Let's say David has $2,000 and Goliath has $10,000.
David's winning rate is 55%, and Goliath's winning rate is 45%.
In each game, the loser must spend 1,000 yuan until one of the parties goes bankrupt and is eliminated.
To make the opponent bankrupt, Goliath only needs to win 2 games and David needs to win 10 games.
Is David’s slightly higher winning rate enough to overcome the 1:5 financial disadvantage and win?
Mathematicians calculated that David only had a 36% chance of winning, and Goliath had a 64% chance of winning.
Therefore, David, who has a slight advantage in skills but few resources, has a very low winning rate.
But if David's skill level is much higher than Goliath's, and he has an 80% winning rate, then he has a 94% probability of winning.
From the gambler's bankruptcy theorem, we can derive some life principles:
1. Try to use probability analysis as much as possible in life, business and investment to improve your decision-making ability.
2. If the other party has more resources than me, we should evaluate whether we have an absolute advantage in capabilities. If you only have a 50% winning rate, never accept the challenge rashly.
3. Small, low-cost attempts can increase the possibility of success.
For example, in the case of David Goliath, if each game was worth 100 yuan instead of 1,000 yuan, and all other conditions remained unchanged, David's probability of winning would increase to 98%!
Amazon’s Bezos understands this. He is willing to experiment on many innovative projects with limited investment. If he fails, he will suffer little loss, but if he succeeds, he will gain huge profits. In the same way we invest, we might as well boldly buy innovative stocks with large room for appreciation but limited decline in small amounts.
4. If possible, avoid zero-sum games.
Gambler's Destruction is a zero-sum game, either you lose or you win.
Changing a condition, if the winner gets 2 yuan and the loser only loses 1 yuan, in this positive-sum game, both parties may gain something or at least survive, allowing the game to continue indefinitely.Players will even pay to participate in such a positive-sum game. #内容挖坑
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It's better to be in a bear market. Everyone is researching projects, improving technology, and making jokes.
When the bull market comes, pink eye, heart disease, and insomnia are all common. I can't sleep or eat. Every day when I pick up my phone, I see which group member has earned 10 times and which group member has earned 8 times. Scratching ears and cheeks, stamping feet, and breaking thighs.
Thinking that I was still a long way from getting my money back, many of my friends were already happy and thinking about which car to buy and which house to buy. The class gap became more and more obvious.
When the bull market comes, pink eye, heart disease, and insomnia are all common. I can't sleep or eat. Every day when I pick up my phone, I see which group member has earned 10 times and which group member has earned 8 times. Scratching ears and cheeks, stamping feet, and breaking thighs.
Thinking that I was still a long way from getting my money back, many of my friends were already happy and thinking about which car to buy and which house to buy. The class gap became more and more obvious.
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The electricity meter at home is running faster and faster, and your parents are still thinking about when you can buy a house and start a family. But all you think about all day long is how to get rid of your hair, and when will the airdrop be available or possible? How much. But even so, you still enjoy interacting with each other. Because you will think this is an opportunity to change your destiny, but in fact it is of no use, it is all counter-attack. It’s almost Chinese New Year, and it won’t bring you any real use if you bring your broken computer home. Your friends spend a lot of money in their pockets to eat, drink and have fun, while you silently play with your broken computer at home. Relatives and friends asked you what you gained during dinner. You said that I had launched several web3 projects, and also combined public chains, defi, cross-chain bridges, etc. to create one fish and three fish. Your relatives are confused, but you are still laughing at them silently in your mind. Laugh at them for not understanding web3, interactivity, and your feelings about getting rich soon, and also laugh at them for not being able to read Waibo 3. Your parents’ colleagues are all talking about their children’s achievements in a year. The son bought a house, the daughter bought a car, the girl got a promotion and a salary increase. Your parents just laughed and said nothing, saying that my son did something. A broken computer with several screens buzzed when turned on.
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What is happiness, financial freedom or getting the one you love? Watching the uncle next door lighting up a cigarette, I silently lit one too. I don’t know if what I smoked was sorrow, but I definitely smoked it. Looking at the passers-by, I wonder if they are happy. But I'm definitely unhappy.
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The 30 experiences and principles of the cryptocurrency world are all classics and worth reading repeatedly.
1. Investing profits in riskier projects equals no profit. This is equivalent to gambling; the best way is to invest profits in BTC/ETH/stable coins/fiat currencies (if you don’t have good luck all the time, you will lose everything if you make a mistake) 2. Projects with a cult culture may make you exposed rich. The premise is to leave the market before the crash (anything with cx mode is a good thing, it depends on your level) 3. It is stupid to lock up a certain token to get extra income. This is equivalent to putting yourself in a sinking ship (don’t believe in any locked-up projects that have money, unless the bull market soars) 4. Your attention and energy are valuable assets. Don't waste time on some boring events (learn more, even if you develop contacts, the so-called licking a dog is better than beating a xx) 5. Be careful to participate in projects that over-exaggerate the rate of return of your project. There is no free lunch in the world; pledging - obtaining income - continuous compound interest, seemingly seamless, but every additional income will bring additional risks (Cui Yue's cattle often die the fastest) 6. Respond to any information source Always remain skeptical. Everyone must have the ability to think independently and figure out why they are distributing these messages? What's the purpose? (Be wary but don’t exclude) 7. When new narratives emerge, favor market leaders. They have first mover advantage and market share (the first to buy something new, no one remembers the second) 8. Using too many tools will weigh you down. You don’t need to use more than 50 tools to help you invest in research. It is enough to use Etherscan, Debank, DeFiLlama, etc. (choose the one that suits you and have the ability to write it yourself) 9. The food chain in the currency circle: builder > VC/insiders > giant whales > Robots > Manual traders who received the message early (less than 1 minute) > Manual traders who received the message last (more than 1 minute). When information about the project has been flying all over the media, it is too late to participate (refer to 12 for interpretation) 10. Obtaining Alpha can be boiled down to two aspects: obtaining inside information or doing things that no one else is too lazy to do. People underestimate the importance of just media articles focusing on the protocol and its discord (technical and human resources) 11. History will always repeat itself, just repackaging without changing the ingredients (old wine, new clothes, experience is necessary) 12. Position yourself as early as possible and let money come to you. Anytime you feel FOMO it's a sign that it's probably too late to get in. (Look at your own resource fomo and the ability of your people) 13. Measure your gains and losses in percentages, which will help you stay rational (profit and loss ratio) 14. Be sure to reduce your losses. Set a stop loss before investing, and don't lose big because of small sunk costs (be sure to cut the meat hard without thinking about getting back the capital) 15. Develop the habit of recording. Write down the information you see in the currency circle every day, your transactions, the mistakes you make, etc. This will improve your mental algorithm (remember to review what you have done every day) 16. Do not overestimate the role of bull markets in fundamentals. In a bull market, all logic is useless. People tend to buy through hype, FOMO, etc. See the nature of the industry clearly, not what you think (in a bull market, pigs can fly) 17. Appropriate incentives can drive prices. People buy in large quantities when they have expectations of future profits. You can obtain additional income through airdrops, lock-up, ecosystem incentives, etc. (things about dog farms and devs) 18. Don’t worship anyone. Even the smartest people like Alameda and Three Arrows Capital make mistakes. No matter who you are, you will make mistakes. Just believe in yourself (stick to your heart and don’t be a brainless leek). 19. There is no right or wrong in investing. No one will achieve a 100% winning rate. The most important thing in investing is to maximize profits and minimize losses (calculate the profit and loss ratio yourself) 20. Focusing on one track is an advantage. No one can know everything, choose one or a few fields and be the best in that field (small trial and error, don’t be jealous) 21. Keeping up with the macro is overrated. Just monitor the capital flowing into the market and see when we get back. Your time is much better spent elsewhere. (Monitor project token dynamics) 22. Do not invest when you are out of control, drunk or sleep deprived. One mistake can ruin years of hard work (one mistake and everything is lost) 23. Stablecoins are not as stable as you think. UST failed and USDC also experienced decoupling panic. Convert part of the funds into legal currency and deposit them in the bank (know how to reasonably match assets) 24. If you want to maximize investment returns, invest concentratedly. (Don’t be a stud) 25. Establish your own investment system and strictly implement it. A systematic investment framework can effectively prevent you from investing emotionally (diversify your investment projects) 26. It is unrealistic to multiply your funds 100 times through trading. This is not 2016 anymore, the best way is to increase your cash flow, plan your goals and strictly implement them (unless you have high technology or find bugs) 27. Everyone loves new projects and new narratives. Fry the new, not the old. (The currency circle must be willing to accept new things) 28. Don’t limit your learning to the field of encryption. Learning game theory, behavioral economics and psychology will be of great help to you in the future (you must know what Gouzhuang wants to do) 29. A good project must have both basic elements and rising elements. Uptrends attract attention, while fundamentals give people reasons to hold on. (Always pay attention to project dynamics) 30. Unknown is fatal in the currency circle. The founder is gambling with the treasury, and the anonymous founder has a disgraceful past, which may be fatal unknowns (ignorance is not fearless. Simply understand that the money you make by luck will definitely be lost by ignorance.)
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