LIVEAlvaroPalomino
@Square-Creator-4c7113630
20 year old economics student. http://alvaropalomino.com Macro and Long term investor / Analista de derivados #crypto
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OVER REACTING MARKET
With the recent rise in inflation of 6.4% in the US, the market has not reacted in a logical way to events. If we compare it with the behavior of a year ago, it is likely that we would have seen more severe falls in the markets. However, this has not been the case and why? To answer that question we have to look at market sentiment.
We have a decrease in investors' cash of 5.2%, so there is more exposure in the market, and in general, in this rally the stocks have reacted in a totally emotional way, I refer to this because Any news that has occurred, good or bad, has been discounted by the market as an increase in price. I think this is quite detrimental in the long run, the longer we maintain the bullish sentiment for longer, the harder a possible recession and its consequences will be. There is talk of the possibility of raising rates more than 5%, some investors even predict 6%, that would not be surprising seeing the current behavior of the economy, we have had a rise in inflation, although it is not very high, it is worrying, the The speed at which rates have been raised is insane and is not healthy for the economy, so after raising rates so much and applying the necessary measures to avoid and control inflation there is a rebound, I see it as something quite bad.
We have a decrease in investors' cash of 5.2%, so there is more exposure in the market, and in general, in this rally the stocks have reacted in a totally emotional way, I refer to this because Any news that has occurred, good or bad, has been discounted by the market as an increase in price. I think this is quite detrimental in the long run, the longer we maintain the bullish sentiment for longer, the harder a possible recession and its consequences will be. There is talk of the possibility of raising rates more than 5%, some investors even predict 6%, that would not be surprising seeing the current behavior of the economy, we have had a rise in inflation, although it is not very high, it is worrying, the The speed at which rates have been raised is insane and is not healthy for the economy, so after raising rates so much and applying the necessary measures to avoid and control inflation there is a rebound, I see it as something quite bad.
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The target of 150k is a realistic target for the next top according to the LGC model of #Bitcoin . Of course we are still in the accumulation zone where we can take advantage of it to make purchases thinking about the medium-long term. There is still a lot to see in terms of macro and how the market will react.
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Regarding #Bitcoin, we still have many leveraged longs and bullish sentiment on exchanges right now. Is today a day with volatility, a long squeeze?
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I am not commenting on crypto for now because everything is very stopped, it needs a boost in spot to look for much higher prices. Right now there is a lot of liquidation waiting at the 23-24k levels. Most of the time they are long but the price fails to react?
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I just received a suitcase from Binance for being a content creator, shall we come back here?
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Key zone for #BTC and for indices, bitcoin will need volume to break through 30-31k.
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Honestly all the FOMO that is going on with $BTC this week can lead to higher prices, not only that but this state of retail can last a few more weeks.
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Are we realizing that indices are rising non-stop for now, and cryptos are falling? What will happen when the indices make corrections?
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#Bitcoin 25.3k zone as an inflection point, we have to wait how it reacts to that area but for now the bearish momentum predominates in the movement.
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This drop is rumored to be related to the SEC and Binance, market makers are said to be liquidating all binance coins. Very shady things from what I see, my opinion remains impartial.
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It is incredible how the indices are rising non-stop quoting a scenario that is not realistic and yet the cryptos are not even moving, they are losing a correlation from my point of view in a worse sense.
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Technical or Fundamental Analysis
Dear readers
Today I want to discuss this very delicate topic left over by many, when one enters this world of investments or buys an asset, always think about how to do it, whether by asking a close person, a specialist or searching on the internet. However, many other people choose these two options, first we have the TA (technical analysis) which is useful to know the condition of the market and especially the availability of the price, on the other hand, here I put special emphasis on the highly developed debate on the fundamentals, which help you know what the asset is about, what the project is, its projection and future intentions, of course, the TA can be used without knowing anything about fundamentals and vice versa.
Today I want to discuss this very delicate topic left over by many, when one enters this world of investments or buys an asset, always think about how to do it, whether by asking a close person, a specialist or searching on the internet. However, many other people choose these two options, first we have the TA (technical analysis) which is useful to know the condition of the market and especially the availability of the price, on the other hand, here I put special emphasis on the highly developed debate on the fundamentals, which help you know what the asset is about, what the project is, its projection and future intentions, of course, the TA can be used without knowing anything about fundamentals and vice versa.
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The #TOTAL2 excluding #Bitcoin: does not look good at all on a macro level, it did not even break its previous high, here those who are bullish on crypto should ask themselves if the market itself has not been able to surpass the maximum in terms of capitulation with this bear market rally, then what it will happen?
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#Bitcoin: There is not much more to update, the scenario is still valid of touching 20-18k, weakness in the rebound and little buying pressure without volume, which is the most important thing when breaking a key zone in the price.
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BITCOIN AS A RESERVE OF VALUE
We are all aware that this topic is very delicate because there are many points of view to see it, however, I am going to bring realism and current data that agree with my analysis, I am not a Bitcoin maximist but I do have possession of it and in view of having more.
Returning to the topic, BTC(Bitcoin) is a consensual network that allows a new payment system and a completely digital currency. Now, can it be considered a safe haven asset? My answer is absolutely yes, but not now, to begin with the crypto market is dominated by futures leverage, that is, there are hardly any people who have
Returning to the topic, BTC(Bitcoin) is a consensual network that allows a new payment system and a completely digital currency. Now, can it be considered a safe haven asset? My answer is absolutely yes, but not now, to begin with the crypto market is dominated by futures leverage, that is, there are hardly any people who have
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