Wow, INJ MATIC RENDER has a high probability of rising, let's take a look

Recently, I saw whales frantically transferring funds from INJ, MATIC and RENDER to cold wallets, which is definitely a strong signal: big funds are preparing for long-term layout.

This large-scale cold wallet transfer often means that whales are confident in future increases and choose not to sell for the time being, reducing market liquidity. Especially INJ's continuous transfer since the end of August, MATIC also had similar operations in early September.

Soha Hxd

A chart tells you the ranking of development activity of tokens and chains, for reference when buying coins!

Recently, I looked at the development activity data of the crypto ecosystem and listed the top 15 blockchain ecosystems, ranked by the level and growth of github events in the past year. This list is based on the number of "pure" development activity events in each ecosystem, not just "commits"!

Ethereum is still the leader, but BNB Chain is really strong, with an annual growth of +3.0%, while Polygon has a decline of -1.6%
🤔

📊Development activity ranking:

1️⃣#Ethereum: +0.8%

2️#BNBChain: +3.0%

3️⃣#Polygon: -1.6%

4️⃣#Cosmos: +7.9%

5️⃣#Arbitrum: +11.6%

6️⃣#Optimism: +39.3%

7️⃣#Avalanche: +16.6%

8️⃣#Harmony: +5.9%

9️⃣#Polkadot: +1.8%

🔟#Solana: +12.1%

Tip: The ranking is mainly based on the number of ‘pure’ development activity events in each ecosystem, rather than just the growth percentage. Although the growth rate is important, the overall development activity can better reflect the actual development of the ecosystem. Therefore, the ranking prioritizes the total amount of activity, and then combines it with the growth situation for reference. For example, although Ethereum has not grown much, its total amount of development activity is still far higher than other projects.

一图来看链上Btc数据给出的信号，给老外兄弟点赞！

最近看了一下比特币的UTXO数据，发现有一些有趣的信号，跟之前几轮市场的走势挺像的。我们可以从短期和长期的UTXO变化中看到一些趋势，可能对接下来的市场分析有帮助。

简单说一下几个关键点：

1、短期 UTXO 增加，可能暗示顶部：图中的橙色部分代表短期持有者（1天到1周）的 UTXO，每当这个部分显著增加时，通常是市场接近顶部的信号。短期投资者在高点获利了结，这往往会给市场带来一定的抛压，导致价格波动。

2、长期 UTXO 增加，表明市场积累阶段：紫色部分代表的是长期 UTXO（1个月到3个月），当这部分增加时，通常意味着投资者正在积累比特币，选择继续持币，而不是卖出。这一般发生在市场预期未来会有上涨机会时，属于一个相对健康的信号。

3、当前市场的微妙状况：短期 UTXO 的上升有点类似于市场顶部的信号，但长期 UTXO 的积累同时在进行，说明很多投资者还是有信心继续持币。这让市场看起来处于震荡期，而不是快速下跌。

总结来说，市场当前的动向既有短期抛压的风险，也有长期持有者支撑的迹象。接下来的走势可能会在震荡中慢慢明朗。

The market is tough, but data shows that big players and whales are buying. Brothers must hold on and don't dare to cut losses!

Recently, the holdings of whales and sharks are still strong. Data shows that these big players are still buying. At the same time, the supply of Bitcoin on exchanges is decreasing, and more coins are being transferred to cold wallets.

In the past three months, wallets holding 10+ BTC have accumulated 161,800 Bitcoins, an increase of nearly 28,600, while the Bitcoin stock on exchanges has decreased by 75,000.

With the continued buying of big players and the decline in supply on exchanges, the next wave of market conditions may be brewing.

Do you think these signals indicate that the market is about to rebound?

Don't panic, family, the data shows that many people have cut their losses

The market structure is about to change. Indicators show that many short-term investors are selling at a loss, and similar emotions are often a signal that the market has bottomed out.

The current market has entered the bottom range, and the bear market has weakened significantly. According to past experience, the market usually finds balance after bottoming out and prepares for the next round of gains. Although volatility still exists in the short term, this may be a stage for the market to accumulate strength.

These coins are being shorted strongly, can there be a short-selling boom?

The funding rate shows that $MANA, $GRT, and $Aave are being shorted heavily, and many people are betting that they will fall.

However, it is interesting that according to experience, when there is too much shorting, there is often a rebound.

Especially on Binance, the short ratio of these tokens is very high, and it feels that once liquidated, the price may rise rapidly.

A picture tells you the cost of various ETH whales for reference.

From the data point of view, there are significant differences in investor costs for different ETH holdings. The average buying cost for large investors (100+ ETH) is about $1,318, while the cost for investors holding 1 to 100 ETH is as high as $1,868 to $2,195. This difference shows that large players have obvious advantages in the market.

Looking back at history, BTC tends to be accompanied by market rallies when its price hits key levels. Today, the realized price of ETH has twice approached the range of $1,868 to $2,195. If the price enters this range again, would you dare to buy iron?

From the analysis of miners' positions and exchange trends, market sentiment is currently too divided.

On the one hand, miners are confident in the market. The MPI (miners' position index) indicator shows that they continue to hold Bitcoin and are not in a hurry to sell, which is usually a bullish signal. Other data on the chain also show that long-term holders remain stable and are in a state of cautious optimism.

But on the other hand, the increase in net inflows of Bitcoin to exchanges may mean more selling pressure in the short term. At the same time, the purchasing power of the US market is relatively weak, and the Coinbase premium is low. However, retail demand and institutional investors' interest in the Korean market are still strong, and this contrast further reflects the split in market sentiment.

Technical indicators such as RSI and stochastic indicators have not given clear trend signals at present, so everyone has to continue to wait and see. Although the funding rate and open interest in the derivatives market are rising, which means that there may be room for future price increases, it is still necessary to be cautious in the short term.
#美国大选如何影响加密产业？

Must-see: Market overview and selected potential opportunities for September 11th check-in

1. Market overview

Market: The market has a bit of a volatile rebound, but overall there is still a lack of obvious hot spots. Everyone is waiting for some big news.

US stocks: US stocks are also volatile, and the market is generally watching tonight's August CPI data, and there is no big move for the time being.

2. Hot spots in sectors

DeFi sector: AAVE coin performed well today, mainly because the Trump family launched a DeFi project that imitates AAVE. In addition, Trump's debate this morning brought a wave of heat.

Small ticket sector: AERGO coin rose because BN listed a new contract. As for LUNA coin, the hype enthusiasm of the Korean market has been ignited because the Mid-Autumn Festival is coming soon, and everyone is taking the opportunity to hype it up.

RWA sector: OM coin also has a good increase, the reason is very simple, OM's main network will be launched in October, and everyone is planning in advance.

3. Potential opportunities

Polygon's ZK chip: Polygon and Fabric Cryptography have launched a custom ZK chip, which is particularly beneficial for accelerating the development of Layer 2 technology. ZK technology is very popular now, and this chip may promote more projects to use ZK technology, especially those with potential on Layer 2.

Paypal and Venmo's ENS support: Paypal and Venmo now support ENS (Ethereum Domain Name Service) for crypto payments, which is definitely a good thing for popularizing crypto payments. As a tool for practical applications, ENS may attract more people to use it in the future.

Scroll ecosystem's Pencils airdrop: The DeFi protocol Pencils in the Scroll ecosystem announced that it would airdrop DAPP tokens, which is a good opportunity for users who like airdrops. As the Scroll ecosystem expands, this airdrop and incentive may bring more market activity.

Layer3's Launchpad function: Layer3 launched Launchpad, and users who participate can get rewards such as Caldera airdrops. This is a good opportunity for users who want to enter new projects and earn rewards.

Fractal Bitcoin's reward distribution: Fractal Bitcoin has just completed the reward distribution of the Bootstrap plan, which is very helpful for the community participation of the project. The L2 project of the BTC ecosystem has received more and more attention, and Fractal Bitcoin may attract more developers and users to enter.

The market is pessimistic again. Do you dare to open a position/increase your position?

The recent perpetual futures funding rate does not look optimistic. This is the sixth time such pessimism has appeared since November 2022.

Whenever the funding rate continues to be negative, it usually indicates that the demand for short orders in the market is increasing, that is, everyone is suppressing short selling.

However, based on past experience, this situation generally indicates that the seller is close to "exhaustion" and there may be a rebound next. Of course, this does not guarantee that the price will not continue to fall.

In general, this negative rate area is often regarded as a potential layout opportunity. Although the market sentiment is not good, it may be the time when opportunities quietly appear.
#美国经济软着陆？

One chart shows which DeFi projects are still under development and which ones are still working!

In recent months, there have been a number of DeFi projects with very high development activity, especially Synthetix ($SNX), dYdX ($DYDX) and Lido DAO ($LDO). These projects have made impressive progress and are clearly steadily advancing their respective technologies and features.

Synthetix and dYdX in particular continue to maintain strong development momentum, and Lido DAO is also steadily expanding. The DeFi space is indeed evolving rapidly, and there are new developments worth paying attention to every day.

Which project do you think is the most promising? Let’s talk about it together!

Classic indicators show that big fluctuations are coming!

Recently, Bitcoin's NVT Golden Cross indicator is constantly forming higher lows, and it feels like something is going to happen!

Since the beginning of this year, the performance of NVT Golden Cross has been following the "lower highs" route, just like the price of Bitcoin, which is almost "dancing" in front of the peak but just not going up. Is this really coming to the "end of the stage"?

Interestingly, since the Japanese mini crisis on August 5, NVT Golden Cross has begun to gradually form higher lows, which is quite intriguing. Currently, we see that NVT GC is compressing in a triangle area, which usually means that the next price action, whether up or down, will be swift!

Bulls, the money is coming, just wait for the opportunity.

Recently, U's holdings in the exchange have soared. It feels like a large wave of funds are quietly waiting to enter the market. The market is expected to make a big move!

Although the price may not rise immediately, the bulls can still have some faith in this wave of momentum. After all, the funds are accumulating strength, and the market is just waiting for an opportunity to start!

ETH latest situation!

Recently, it was found that ETH on derivatives exchanges had a negative net flow of more than 40,000. Simply put, more ETH is flowing out than in, which may mean that selling pressure is decreasing, or the amount of borrowing for short positions is decreasing.

Now, market sentiment seems to have changed, which may affect subsequent price movements. We can continue to pay attention to see if there will be further fluctuations!

#BTC走势分析

Recently, I saw that Coinbase Premium has been negative since September 2nd, and the price of Bitcoin has also been falling.

However, there seems to be some improvement in the past two days. The price on Coinbase has gradually become the same as other exchanges. It feels that the buying sentiment in the United States may be warming up.

However, we still have to wait until today's close to determine whether this wave of recovery is really sustainable.

#BTC走势分析

Must-see: Whales’ layout emerges, which tokens will benefit?

With the launch of Bitcoin ETF, the influence of miners has gradually weakened, and the market focus has begun to shift to external factors such as ETFs and CME. At the same time, the accumulation behavior of whales on exchanges has begun to appear more critical, and the operations of these large holders are more worthy of attention than the movements of small-cap coins.

An interesting phenomenon is that if the 4-year moving average of "Supply in Profit %" is introduced, it can provide the market with a clearer reference to the support level. The 4-year moving average usually represents a long-term trend, especially when the profit supply rate is below this level, it often indicates that the market may enter a rebound phase.

From this trend, $BTC is naturally the biggest beneficiary, especially driven by Bitcoin ETF. As the market's interest in ETFs increases, Grayscale Trust products such as $GBTC may also benefit in terms of liquidity and discount repair. In addition, any tokens closely related to the Bitcoin ecosystem, such as $ETH, a core asset that supports DeFi and decentralized applications, are also expected to follow the trend of Bitcoin.

For DeFi projects, especially those that intersect with traditional financial instruments such as CME and ETFs, such as $AAVE and $COMP, they may also find new opportunities from this round of market structure changes. After all, the attention of market participants is gradually turning to larger trends, and the behavior of whales is often a weather vane.