I woke up today to see Bitcoin nearing the $100,000 mark, but it seems no one in the major groups is shouting 'bull run' anymore; it looks like everyone has been worn down by the market. This time, Bitcoin once again challenges the $100,000 mark. Can the long-awaited altcoin season finally arrive? Let's chat about it today.
In the crypto market, many investors are anxiously waiting for a familiar rhythm, where after a Bitcoin surge, funds flow into altcoins, igniting a comprehensive rise in the 'altcoin season.'
However, months have passed in 2025, Bitcoin continues to hit new highs, but altcoins have yet to experience a collective explosion. Why is this round of altcoin season arriving so late?
There are only three opportunities to turn your life around; can you seize them? — The wealth code of the Kondratiev wave
In the past few days, I've seen many articles about the Kondratiev wave, which I found quite touching. I just finished dinner and want to jot down some of my understandings.
I know that the Kondratiev wave originates from a famous saying by Mr. Zhou Jintao, the chief economist of CITIC Securities: 'In life, wealth relies on the Kondratiev wave.' He said that the accumulation of wealth for everyone is not due to how capable you are, but because you happen to hit the nodes of the economic cycle at the right time. Looking back at the development over more than forty years of reform and opening up, we can see that wealth accumulation has changed with industries, from international trade, real estate, and the internet to today's AI. As long as an ordinary person hits an economic operating phase, entering the middle class is not a problem.
In the financial market, especially in the cryptocurrency space, I have seen most people make money quickly in ways you can't imagine. Of course, there are also those who earn money through hard work (like harvesting airdrops, staying up late to scan blockchains), etc., but most of them end up losing it all back. As long as you remain active in this market, there will always be ways for the market to take the money out of your pocket.
Most people swing from one thing to another, without long-term improvement in any particular knowledge or skill proficiency, jumping into whatever seems profitable at the moment. Thus, even if you make money in the short term, in the long run, you will eventually lose it back, or even end up losing more. Such a simple truth—why doesn’t everyone understand it, or see it, or want to see it? Because every time they actually take money from the casino, they think they are the chosen one. Anyone instinctively believes in their own judgment and is convinced of the mantra they repeat while making their moves, believing they will win again next time. Little do they know, there is only so much money in the casino, and there are more gamblers ready to try their luck.
Moreover, no matter how strong a person's desire to make money is, if the family and environment you are in do not support your efforts to make money, it equals zero. Whether you believe it or not, it’s that magical. You can crudely understand it as: wealth luck.
ETH is quite impressive, in just two days it went from 1800 straight to 2500, not giving any chance to get on board, fortunately, I was already on the ride at 4000! Not worried at all.
Mining pool products are truly being used, TVL has exceeded 500 million; Low transaction fees, short-term trading and brushing Alpha scores are cost-effective; Major platforms are paying attention, reliable and secure; VC cost is about 1U, current price is a great deal, it's the right time to enter with a light position!
The market saw a large influx of capital last night, with a net inflow of $590 million into ETFs, and BlackRock alone had a net inflow of nearly $1 billion in one day. This is definitely a sign of intense enthusiasm, but many sovereign funds have rushed in through BlackRock. MicroStrategy also raised over $1 billion to continue buying, and last week, the son of the U.S. Secretary of Commerce's 21 fund was reportedly looking to accumulate 42,000 Bitcoin, worth about $4 billion, which is even more than the $3 billion rumored in the market. The buying power for Bitcoin is strong on the funding side;
The ETH/BTC exchange rate continues to rise, and the price seems poised to approach $1900. Last night, ETFs also saw an inflow of over $64 million, almost entirely contributed by BlackRock. It’s very likely that in the coming days, we will hear news of BlackRock applying for a staking ETF. Vitalik and the foundation also began to express their intentions last night, stating they want to enhance the usage rate and decentralization of ETH. Additionally, there is an upgrade benefit in May, as well as suggestions from high-level executives at ROIT for ETH to go public. All of these are positive expectations, and holding ETH spot is not problematic;
In terms of sectors, AI agents are making a comeback, with $virtual seeing a 160% increase over the past week. The fully diluted valuation (FDV) has returned to $1.5 billion, reopening the ceiling for the entire sector, which had previously dropped to just over $400 million. This wave is definitely set to kick off the flywheel again. Previous old agents like $aixcb, $vader, $game, $nomai, and $ai16z have all doubled in price over the past few days. In this round of the bull market, AI agents continue to be the main narrative for altcoins;
Regarding new listings, Coinlist has launched a new project, Fleek, with a public market value of $75 million. Although it's a bit large, it has been halved compared to the previous round's $200 million private placement. This is also an AI-related project, with major institutions like Polychain, DCG, and CB investing—definitely a VC-backed endeavor. This can be participated in to bet on it being listed on Binance and CB. Binance Alpha's latest project, MilkyWay, has a participation threshold of 75 points, which has precisely kept friends with 74 points out. However, the hype remains high, with over 500 times oversubscription already. It feels like the requirements for participants are getting higher. Yesterday, the Alpha project $sign was listed on Upbit and surged by 50%. Now the FDV has exceeded $1.2 billion, and it looks like the market cap ceiling for new coins on Binance is also about to be opened;
On-chain, Teacher San San is also about to release a meme, which should also be a domestic team effort. However, the market conditions are good, so we can pay attention tomorrow.
During the exam, the teacher always said that being 1 point short could leave thousands behind. I didn’t understand before, but now I realize!!! -- 64-point contestant
Every day brushing low guarantee points, where is the loss, it's all profit? I'm still brushing the 6 points low guarantee, if I were to brush over a thousand dollars, the money earned from brushing points would probably be more than air drops! Are you not using the right method??? #币安Alpha积分
Big shots, the announcement says there will be airdrops on the 28th and 29th from Binance, although the rules have not been announced yet, but I have been working hard to earn points every day, and I finally have 158 points now. The airdrops for these two periods should be secure, right? Can I have a bowl of pig's trotter rice?
Bought three coins! Monthly line deviates by more than 30%, about to close the monthly line, many altcoins are taking turns to rise, I don't believe they have no moves, it's that simple $DOGE $UNI $ENA