孟晓翰
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Bitcoin 2025 Outlook - A Key Year for Bull-Bear Transition!
Yesterday, on the Lantern Festival, the US released CPI data which was negative, but then Powell's speech created a positive smokescreen, leading to another V-shaped reversal in the market. Today, I would like to share my personal views on Bitcoin in 2025. Currently, from the chart perspective, the monthly K-level for Bitcoin is still in a bull market phase, while other mainstream currencies are showing signs of weakness and lack of upward momentum. Smaller coins have been halved. Under the current market environment, there is uncertainty in the macro economy and issues of global economic inflation. The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates twice in 2025, totaling no more than 50 basis points. The expected rate cut periods are May-June and August-October. Based on the current monthly K-level trend, May-June will likely see a bull market peak. If market sentiment lags, then after the rate cuts in October-November, Bitcoin may enter a bear market correction phase again. Personally, I expect this bull market will see Bitcoin crazily surge, reaching a peak between 130,000 to 150,000 before beginning to pull back. In the short term, from February to April, there won't be too much positive news, and the market will likely enter a phase of range-bound fluctuation again, which will be quite torturous for those holding positions. However, the coexistence of risk and opportunity makes it crucial to grasp the timing of entry and exit.
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2.11 Bitcoin Market Analysis~The short-term bullish pullback of the market is expected to test the 100,000 mark again
Yesterday's market trend was as expected, with a volatile bullish trend. After today's daily line update, the coin price is again running above the MA10 daily moving average, and the KDJ and MACD indicators are in a state of short-term shrinking volume. Combined with the 12-hour line, the coin price is slightly volatile upward relying on the MA5 daily moving average. The MACD and KDJ indicators are out of the bullish pullback sentiment in the short term, but the low trading volume causes the market to be volatile and bullish. It is expected to test the 99,000-100,000 mark again.
From the 4-hour line, the current coin price is running above the MA30 daily moving average, and the MA5 10-day moving average resonates upward, and the short-term BOLL band upper track appears to be open. Combined with the hour, it is judged that the intraday market is biased towards a slightly volatile upward trend, and it is expected to test the 99,000-100,000 mark again. Therefore, my personal opinion is to maintain the short-term band within the day, and you can first buy low and then sell high.
Operation idea: Bitcoin: 97500-97000 light position Target: 98500-99500 Stop: 96500
For the current market, it is expected to be enough. In the short term, we will see here first. Let's take the high-level strategy step by step. We will make a detailed analysis later ~#AI概念币强势反弹 #比特币后市
Yesterday's market trend was as expected, with a volatile bullish trend. After today's daily line update, the coin price is again running above the MA10 daily moving average, and the KDJ and MACD indicators are in a state of short-term shrinking volume. Combined with the 12-hour line, the coin price is slightly volatile upward relying on the MA5 daily moving average. The MACD and KDJ indicators are out of the bullish pullback sentiment in the short term, but the low trading volume causes the market to be volatile and bullish. It is expected to test the 99,000-100,000 mark again.
From the 4-hour line, the current coin price is running above the MA30 daily moving average, and the MA5 10-day moving average resonates upward, and the short-term BOLL band upper track appears to be open. Combined with the hour, it is judged that the intraday market is biased towards a slightly volatile upward trend, and it is expected to test the 99,000-100,000 mark again. Therefore, my personal opinion is to maintain the short-term band within the day, and you can first buy low and then sell high.
Operation idea: Bitcoin: 97500-97000 light position Target: 98500-99500 Stop: 96500
For the current market, it is expected to be enough. In the short term, we will see here first. Let's take the high-level strategy step by step. We will make a detailed analysis later ~#AI概念币强势反弹 #比特币后市
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2.10 Bitcoin Market Analysis - Market Oscillation Adjustment Short-term Swing Trading Strategy
After the weekend's oscillation adjustment in Bitcoin, our high short strategy has also seen its profits realized with an upward spike following the update of the weekly K.
After the current weekly K update, the MA10-day moving average and the 5-day moving average show a contrast. The MA10-day moving average slightly presses down the coin price, but the overall trend of the BOLL band and the MA30-day moving average still show an upward shape, which intensifies the issue of fierce bullish and bearish competition at the weekly K level. Combined with MACD and KDJ maintaining a bearish downward divergence, it indicates that the bearish sentiment at the large interval level still dominates. Therefore, for the overall direction, Bitcoin's rebound is unstable at the 99000-100000 level and still needs to be viewed with a bearish outlook.
After the current weekly K update, the MA10-day moving average and the 5-day moving average show a contrast. The MA10-day moving average slightly presses down the coin price, but the overall trend of the BOLL band and the MA30-day moving average still show an upward shape, which intensifies the issue of fierce bullish and bearish competition at the weekly K level. Combined with MACD and KDJ maintaining a bearish downward divergence, it indicates that the bearish sentiment at the large interval level still dominates. Therefore, for the overall direction, Bitcoin's rebound is unstable at the 99000-100000 level and still needs to be viewed with a bearish outlook.
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2.8 Saturday Bitcoin Market Analysis ~ Included Trading Thoughts
I apologize for not updating the market in a timely manner due to family matters during the New Year. I will continue to update the cryptocurrency analysis after the holiday. Friends who are interested can continue to follow along to grasp the market.
The drop in Bitcoin this Monday was the result of multiple factors, including market panic triggered by DeepSeek AI, the tariff policy of the Trump administration, El Salvador's cancellation of Bitcoin's legal tender status, excessive market leverage, and macroeconomic uncertainties. This caused Bitcoin to briefly plunge to around 91,000, but it quickly regained its losses in the following days.
Currently, at the monthly K level, the 91,000-90,000 range serves as strong support. If Bitcoin cannot break below this level during its pullback, then there won't be much room for a decline this month, leaning towards a large range oscillation adjustment trend.
The drop in Bitcoin this Monday was the result of multiple factors, including market panic triggered by DeepSeek AI, the tariff policy of the Trump administration, El Salvador's cancellation of Bitcoin's legal tender status, excessive market leverage, and macroeconomic uncertainties. This caused Bitcoin to briefly plunge to around 91,000, but it quickly regained its losses in the following days.
Currently, at the monthly K level, the 91,000-90,000 range serves as strong support. If Bitcoin cannot break below this level during its pullback, then there won't be much room for a decline this month, leaning towards a large range oscillation adjustment trend.
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12.30 Bitcoin Ethereum Intraday Market Analysis ~ with Trading Ideas
Since the Federal Reserve announced the interest rate and the number of potential rate cuts for next year on December 18, it has triggered a global financial market sell-off. The last two days of the month are also critical for this year's closing battle. Currently, after the update of the weekly K, Bitcoin's price is again running below the MA5 daily moving average, with the 10-day moving average showing a slight upward trend. Although the MACD and KDJ indicators still show bullish upward sentiment, trading volume has started to slow down. The decline of the MA5 daily moving average has further hindered the price increase. From a weekly K perspective, Bitcoin cannot stabilize above the MA5 weekly moving average, which is around 98500-100000. Therefore, in the month before the New Year, a range oscillation downtrend will continue. If it can stabilize above the 98500-100000 line, the upward channel will open again.
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Analysis of Bitcoin and Ethereum intraday market on December 18 ~ with operation ideas
Yesterday, the Bitcoin price touched 108366 in the morning and closed with a cross upper shadow line. Then the price fell under pressure. The current daily price fell back to the MA5 daily average line and fluctuated. Although the MA5 10-day average line still maintained a slight upward trend, the MACD red energy column began to shrink, and the KDJ three lines showed a desire to turn down, which intensified the daily long-short game. Combined with the 12-hour line, the current currency price K column showed a downward arrangement trend. Although the BOLL band and the MA30 daily average line continued to rise, the short-term intraday currency price fell back. However, there is strong support below, and the short-term support reference is at the 102000-100000 mark. As long as the intraday currency price falls back and cannot effectively break through any support below, the subsequent currency price will still rebound again. After all, Bitcoin's recent crazy blood sucking and institutional support have created a unique scene. (At 3 a.m. on December 19, the Federal Reserve announced interest rates again. A 25% rate cut is a done deal. As long as the main force does not clean up the market, the upward trend will not be disrupted.)
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Yesterday, we updated the Bitcoin and Ethereum market analysis, and gave the multi-day strategy. The price fell back to our entry point in the evening. Bitcoin has a space of 3500-4000 points. Ethereum has made 80-90 points of profit. Congratulations to those who followed. Those who are steady can make money and continue to hold. (If you want to grasp the trend, a set of scientific and reasonable technical indicators and entry and exit points are crucial) On the road of the currency circle, every decision you make is important. The help of a good teacher and friend can help you avoid detours. Friends who have not followed can follow and keep up. Continue to make money. It is not easy to post. Please help to like #BTC再创新高 #比特币战略储备
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12.16 Bitcoin and Ethereum Daily Market Analysis - Trading Thoughts Attached
This month, Bitcoin continues to break new highs. From the monthly K-level perspective, on the 12.5, the price quickly recovered after a downward spike near 90000. The price relies on the resonance of MA5 and the 10-day moving average for an upward trend. Currently, the monthly K indicators show strong bullish sentiment, and with the news impact, it is expected that Bitcoin will continue to rise after Trump takes office on January 22. By May 2025, Bitcoin is expected to break through the $150,000 level.
On the weekly K-level, Bitcoin's TD indicator has reached TD13. According to normal indicators, not considering lag, we will face a pullback next week. However, the price continues to rely on the MA5 daily moving average for an upward swing, adding uncertainty to the current market. Therefore, as long as the weekly K-level price cannot effectively break below the MA5 daily moving average support, we still need to maintain a bullish outlook.
On the weekly K-level, Bitcoin's TD indicator has reached TD13. According to normal indicators, not considering lag, we will face a pullback next week. However, the price continues to rely on the MA5 daily moving average for an upward swing, adding uncertainty to the current market. Therefore, as long as the weekly K-level price cannot effectively break below the MA5 daily moving average support, we still need to maintain a bullish outlook.
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After more than a month of hard work, the US project has been successfully completed. Just returned to Shanghai. On Monday, the cryptocurrency market analysis will proceed as usual. Everyone is welcome to actively engage in discussions #BTC重回关键位置后走势
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November 11th Bitcoin and Ethereum Daily Market Analysis ~ Including Operational Thoughts
Over the weekend, Bitcoin bulls have gained momentum again, breaking through the 80000 mark. After the weekly update, Bitcoin has once again broken through new highs, reaching close to the 82000 line. Looking at the weekly K chart, the current price is running above the upper track of the BOLL band. The moving averages and various indicators are showing a bullish resonance trend. Due to the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and Trump's election benefits for cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin is absorbing capital at a rapid pace, while altcoins are still adjusting at low levels. Regarding Bitcoin's weekly K trend, there is currently a gap of 7000-8000 points between the price and the MA5 daily moving average. Moreover, there has not been a significant correction on the daily chart. Once there are signs of fatigue in the daily bullish trend, the strength of the pullback should not be underestimated. As for when the correction signal will appear, we will focus on daily analysis.
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11.9 Bitcoin and Ethereum Early Morning Market Analysis ~ Including Operational Ideas
Bitcoin surged nearly 10,000 points three days after the U.S. election. Currently, the Bitcoin daily price has broken through and is operating near the upper Bollinger Band. The MACD and KDJ indicators show a bullish momentum trend. The indicators are severely overbought, and there is a gap of 3,000-4,000 points between the price and the 5-day moving average. Looking at the 12-hour chart, the current TD indicator has reached TD8, with the price oscillating around the 5-day moving average. According to the current trend, we need to wait for the 12-hour TD indicator to reach TD9 to determine whether the market will correct to fix the daily gap. The current high of 77,000 can be seen as a resistance level. If this position is broken with increased volume, Bitcoin will again break through its historical high and reach 80,000, which is just a matter of time.
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The analysis of the market trends updated yesterday shows that Ethereum almost missed the long position. Bitcoin successfully reached our entry point in the 73500-72500 area after a small pullback in the afternoon. It reached a peak of 76420 early this morning. We expect to achieve a target profit of 3000-3500 points. Congratulations to those who followed along. For those who prefer a more stable approach, you can consider reducing your position or taking profits above 76000.
(Grasping the market with a scientifically reasonable set of technical indicators for entry and exit points is crucial.)
On your journey in the cryptocurrency world, every decision you make is important. The help of a good mentor can help you avoid detours.
For those who haven’t followed along, there will be an update later. After the analysis, we will layout our strategy again. You can continue to follow for ongoing profits #BTC创历史新高 #美国大选后涨或跌？ .
(Grasping the market with a scientifically reasonable set of technical indicators for entry and exit points is crucial.)
On your journey in the cryptocurrency world, every decision you make is important. The help of a good mentor can help you avoid detours.
For those who haven’t followed along, there will be an update later. After the analysis, we will layout our strategy again. You can continue to follow for ongoing profits #BTC创历史新高 #美国大选后涨或跌？ .
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11.6 Bitcoin Ethereum Daily Market Analysis ~ with Operational Ideas
After the weekly K chart update on Monday, I personally predicted that Bitcoin would not break the support of the MA5 daily moving average during the pullback. The U.S. elections will welcome a new round of rebound. After the morning daily update, Bitcoin led the mainstream coins to break through the previous high pressure of 73700, rising to a maximum of about 75600. Currently, with this wave of bullish volume rise, the MACD and KDJ indicators are both leaning towards a bullish resonance upward trend. The 12-hour MACD indicator shows bullish volume attack, and the upper Bollinger Band is starting to open. Therefore, the current pullback is an opportunity to get in, with the initial high target set around 78000-80000.
Currently, on the 4-hour chart, the price has broken out and is operating near the upper Bollinger Band. In terms of indicators, the bulls are showing strong volume and rising. The moving averages are all in overbought territory. Combined with the short-term view, the day's market is biased towards a bullish resonance upward trend, and the short-term pullback strength won't be too great. For the daily trend, operations can mainly focus on buying during pullbacks. Specific operations should be based on real-time guidance.
Currently, on the 4-hour chart, the price has broken out and is operating near the upper Bollinger Band. In terms of indicators, the bulls are showing strong volume and rising. The moving averages are all in overbought territory. Combined with the short-term view, the day's market is biased towards a bullish resonance upward trend, and the short-term pullback strength won't be too great. For the daily trend, operations can mainly focus on buying during pullbacks. Specific operations should be based on real-time guidance.
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Witness history again, Bitcoin breaks new highs. Intraday pullback does not break 72000, continue to be bullish, target 78000#美国大选后涨或跌？ #加密市场急升
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11.5 Bitcoin Early Morning Market Analysis ~ Attached Operation Ideas
New week, weekly K update, the current price of Bitcoin is still running above the MA5-day moving average, MACD and KDJ indicators maintain a resonant upward trend, BO, LL upper track also showed a slight opening sentiment, as far as this week's trend is concerned, as long as Bitcoin falls back and cannot effectively fall below the weekly K MA5-day moving average support, the price reference is 67500-67000 area, this week's US election confirms that bulls will usher in a new round of rebound.
The daily K column has shown 6 consecutive negative trends, and the MA5-day moving average has slightly suppressed the currency price. (From the indicator, the daily bearish sentiment is relatively strong), but the overall trend of the BOLL band and the MA30-day moving average are still upward. If the short-term bearish retracement cannot effectively break through the weekly K MA5-day moving average support, the currency price reference is in the 67500-67000 area, then Bitcoin still has room for rebound. After all, if the weekly K trend is not destroyed, the daily line will not go too badly. The current daily currency price is under certain suppression near 69500-70000 in the short term. Only when it stabilizes, the bulls will have room for counterattack.
The daily K column has shown 6 consecutive negative trends, and the MA5-day moving average has slightly suppressed the currency price. (From the indicator, the daily bearish sentiment is relatively strong), but the overall trend of the BOLL band and the MA30-day moving average are still upward. If the short-term bearish retracement cannot effectively break through the weekly K MA5-day moving average support, the currency price reference is in the 67500-67000 area, then Bitcoin still has room for rebound. After all, if the weekly K trend is not destroyed, the daily line will not go too badly. The current daily currency price is under certain suppression near 69500-70000 in the short term. Only when it stabilizes, the bulls will have room for counterattack.
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11.1 Bitcoin Ethereum Intraday Market Analysis ~ Attached Trading Ideas
New Monthly K Update Due to the market crash last night, the current Bitcoin monthly K level MA5 10-day moving average is still showing a resonant upward trend. The MACD and KDJ indicators are leaning towards oscillation adjustments. Due to the rise of the K bars in September-October, a gap of 4000-5000 points has emerged between the price and the MA5 daily moving average. Therefore, this month we first look for a pullback. If the MA5 daily moving average support is not broken, the price reference is in the 64500-65000 area, and subsequently, Bitcoin still has the opportunity for a rebound. The high point resistance is still referenced at the 72000-73700 line, and it can only break through new highs under effective stabilization. However, the adjacent Ethereum monthly K trend is basically diverging from Bitcoin, which may drag down the overall market trend (causing uncertainty, we can only take it step by step).
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10.31 Bitcoin and Ethereum Evening Market Analysis – Including Trading Ideas
Bitcoin continues to show slight range fluctuations during the day. Currently, the daily price is running near the upper Bollinger band, with the MA5 and 10-day moving averages continuing to rise. The MACD and KDJ indicators are showing a bullish resonance upward trend. Tonight, there might be a bearish pullback (showing a door-like trend). The current price is near the MA5 daily moving average, with support around 70800. If it holds, there may be a chance for a rebound. Conversely, if the bears exert force again and break below 70800, it is expected to head towards the previous support level of 70000-69500.
The 12-hour TD indicator has reached TD8, and the current K-line is showing a green TD1 trend. However, the lower MA10 daily moving average continues to rise, providing some short-term support. Combined with the 4-hour chart, Bitcoin has shown a slight pullback sentiment in the short term. The first support level for the low is around 70800, and the second support level is around 70000-69500. As long as the price does not effectively break below the 12-hour MA10 moving average support, the price will likely make a rebound tonight into the early morning to test the upper resistance, which is in the 72800-73700 range. For the evening to early morning trend, trading can primarily focus on buying on pullbacks. Specific guidance will be provided in real-time.
The 12-hour TD indicator has reached TD8, and the current K-line is showing a green TD1 trend. However, the lower MA10 daily moving average continues to rise, providing some short-term support. Combined with the 4-hour chart, Bitcoin has shown a slight pullback sentiment in the short term. The first support level for the low is around 70800, and the second support level is around 70000-69500. As long as the price does not effectively break below the 12-hour MA10 moving average support, the price will likely make a rebound tonight into the early morning to test the upper resistance, which is in the 72800-73700 range. For the evening to early morning trend, trading can primarily focus on buying on pullbacks. Specific guidance will be provided in real-time.
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10.30 Evening Bitcoin and Ethereum Evening Market Analysis ~ Attached Operation Ideas
After Bitcoin broke through the short-term pressure level of 72,000 yesterday (we deployed a short-term strategy yesterday), it reached a high of 73,700 in the early morning, forming a short-term double top structure with the 73,800 level on March 14 this year. At present, due to the news of the US election and the announcement of the interest rate cut on November 7, the market is absorbing funds and rising. The current daily level is still in a strong bullish trend, and the indicators tend to resonate upward. However, after 4 consecutive positive K-line, the gap between the short-term currency price and the MA5-day moving average has not been repaired. Combined with the 12-hour line, the current currency price is stepping on the MA5-day moving average and fluctuating slightly upward. The short-term double-top structure suppression in the 73,700 area is still very strong. If it cannot stabilize effectively in the short term, there will be a round of correction sentiment.
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10.29 Bitcoin and Ethereum Daily Market Analysis ~ with Operational Ideas
Yesterday, Bitcoin strongly stabilized at the 67800 level. After a day of fluctuating upward, this morning, Bitcoin once again broke through the 70000 level, reaching a daily high of around 71600 before a slight pullback. Currently, at the daily level, the price relies on the MA5 and the 10-day moving average for upward resonance. On the indicators, both MACD and KDJ show a bullish expansion trend. However, there is a gap of 2000-3000 points between the price and the MA5 daily moving average, and there is also some strong pressure at the 72000 area above. Therefore, at the daily level, it is not recommended to chase long positions at high levels; consider entering after a pullback.
On the 12-hour line, the K-line has 5 consecutive bullish candles, and the MACD and KDJ indicators are in agreement with the daily line, showing a bullish resonant upward trend. However, there is also a gap between the price and the MA5 daily moving average, so whether 72000 can stabilize is crucial. If it stabilizes, we will directly look towards a new high of 75000.
On the 12-hour line, the K-line has 5 consecutive bullish candles, and the MACD and KDJ indicators are in agreement with the daily line, showing a bullish resonant upward trend. However, there is also a gap between the price and the MA5 daily moving average, so whether 72000 can stabilize is crucial. If it stabilizes, we will directly look towards a new high of 75000.
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Early morning update on market trends. Unfortunately, we missed the opportunity to enter the Bitcoin long position. After the morning daily update, Ethereum successfully reached our entry point in the 2480-2460 range. By the evening, Ethereum successfully reached our expected target of 2520-2540, securing a profit of 60-70 points. Congratulations to those who followed along.
(Grasping the market with a set of scientific and reasonable technical indicators to determine entry and exit points is crucial.)
On your cryptocurrency journey, every decision you make is important. The help of a good mentor can save you from taking wrong turns.
For those who missed out, there will be an update later. After the analysis, we will re-strategize. You can continue to follow for ongoing profits #BTC突破6W9 #年底牛还熊？ .
(Grasping the market with a set of scientific and reasonable technical indicators to determine entry and exit points is crucial.)
On your cryptocurrency journey, every decision you make is important. The help of a good mentor can save you from taking wrong turns.
For those who missed out, there will be an update later. After the analysis, we will re-strategize. You can continue to follow for ongoing profits #BTC突破6W9 #年底牛还熊？ .
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