一鸣的交易日记
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Analysis of Bitcoin monthly cycle
Nature: This is a time-advanced analysis report and is not suitable for short-term reference.
Setting the tone: The 93,000 yuan bitcoin is not necessarily the highest point, but the space in the future market is extremely limited. Even if the bitcoin reaches a new high, most varieties will no longer have new highs. Now it is the tail of the bull market. The risks are greater than the benefits, especially for those who have heavy positions in spot copycat products. The risks are extremely high.
reason:
1: Monthly cycle
This round of bull market started in November 2022. From the perspective of wave structure, it is currently in the fifth wave of the monthly line, which is also the last wave. Generally speaking, the rise time of the fifth wave is shorter than that of the third wave. The third wave of the monthly line of this round of bull market rose for 7 months. This high point will most likely appear in the fourth or fifth month. Even if it appears in the fifth month (December 2024), it will be at the beginning of the month. Therefore, from the perspective of time, the conditions for the bull tail are now met.
Setting the tone: The 93,000 yuan bitcoin is not necessarily the highest point, but the space in the future market is extremely limited. Even if the bitcoin reaches a new high, most varieties will no longer have new highs. Now it is the tail of the bull market. The risks are greater than the benefits, especially for those who have heavy positions in spot copycat products. The risks are extremely high.
reason:
1: Monthly cycle
This round of bull market started in November 2022. From the perspective of wave structure, it is currently in the fifth wave of the monthly line, which is also the last wave. Generally speaking, the rise time of the fifth wave is shorter than that of the third wave. The third wave of the monthly line of this round of bull market rose for 7 months. This high point will most likely appear in the fourth or fifth month. Even if it appears in the fifth month (December 2024), it will be at the beginning of the month. Therefore, from the perspective of time, the conditions for the bull tail are now met.
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Will wave 5 occur?
Today's article expresses personal opinions based on the current reality of BTC weekly chart. It is not used as a basis for placing orders and is for reference only.
1: It took 49 days for the callback from point A to point B to be 17346 points; it took 37 days for the rebound from point B to point C to be 15606 points, with a rebound amplitude of 89.9%.
2: The total time from point C to point D is 18814.5 points, which is a total of 21 days.
My personal opinion is that the height of point E will not exceed that of point C, and the rebound proportion from wave 4 will not exceed that of wave 2.
Here are the reasons:
1: If wave 5 does not exist, then the previous waves 1234 should be a W shape. This shape usually has a characteristic that point D is higher than point B, but BTC does not have it.
1: It took 49 days for the callback from point A to point B to be 17346 points; it took 37 days for the rebound from point B to point C to be 15606 points, with a rebound amplitude of 89.9%.
2: The total time from point C to point D is 18814.5 points, which is a total of 21 days.
My personal opinion is that the height of point E will not exceed that of point C, and the rebound proportion from wave 4 will not exceed that of wave 2.
Here are the reasons:
1: If wave 5 does not exist, then the previous waves 1234 should be a W shape. This shape usually has a characteristic that point D is higher than point B, but BTC does not have it.
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Buy the dip here
Today is New Year's Eve. Yiming would like to wish everyone a happy new year in advance. I wish all fans and friends good health, good luck in the Year of the Snake, happiness to the whole family, and lots of money in the new year!
Regarding the market during the Spring Festival, Yiming has some opinions to share with you. Focus on ETH
1: Currently, Ethereum's daily line is still fluctuating in this triangle range. This is the 5th wave adjustment since the callback on December 16, 24. It should be taken seriously. The time for bulls to enter the market is not yet ripe.
2: The starting point of the last rebound was 2900, which is below the weekly lifeline of 3016. If it pulls back again, it will most likely fall below here. The best time to ambush is near the monthly lifeline. Here I would like to remind you that the monthly lifeline is below 2500.
Regarding the market during the Spring Festival, Yiming has some opinions to share with you. Focus on ETH
1: Currently, Ethereum's daily line is still fluctuating in this triangle range. This is the 5th wave adjustment since the callback on December 16, 24. It should be taken seriously. The time for bulls to enter the market is not yet ripe.
2: The starting point of the last rebound was 2900, which is below the weekly lifeline of 3016. If it pulls back again, it will most likely fall below here. The best time to ambush is near the monthly lifeline. Here I would like to remind you that the monthly lifeline is below 2500.
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Evening market analysis on January 27
Clarification: The bottom-fishing opportunity has not yet arrived
Variety: ETH
Time: Around February 3
Location: Near the monthly life line (it's still early), the current price is 3073.
Event: Speculation on ETH's upgrade
In the case where timing, location, and human factors are all favorable, one can take action. This is the essence of trading, waiting for the best timing to take action…
#BTC
#ETH
Clarification: The bottom-fishing opportunity has not yet arrived
Variety: ETH
Time: Around February 3
Location: Near the monthly life line (it's still early), the current price is 3073.
Event: Speculation on ETH's upgrade
In the case where timing, location, and human factors are all favorable, one can take action. This is the essence of trading, waiting for the best timing to take action…
#BTC
#ETH
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January 27 Market Analysis
Currently, the daily chart of ETH is still oscillating within this triangular range. Be patient and wait for the market to break out of this triangular area and choose to follow the trend.
As for whether the market will break out upwards or pull back downwards after exiting the triangular range, we do not predict, we only follow. The market is not based on predictions.
Seize the certainty, discard the uncertainty that does not belong to you.
Certainty:
1: The time nodes around February 3 and March 4 are both important turning points, and with time, there will naturally be direction and position.
2: BTC and ETH are likely to reach new highs in the future, this probability is high.
Uncertainty:
1: Whether this triangular range will break downwards or first break upwards is uncertain.
2: Last Friday, global stock markets experienced a spike and pullback; whether US stocks will follow this adjustment tonight is uncertain.
#BTC
#ETH
Currently, the daily chart of ETH is still oscillating within this triangular range. Be patient and wait for the market to break out of this triangular area and choose to follow the trend.
As for whether the market will break out upwards or pull back downwards after exiting the triangular range, we do not predict, we only follow. The market is not based on predictions.
Seize the certainty, discard the uncertainty that does not belong to you.
Certainty:
1: The time nodes around February 3 and March 4 are both important turning points, and with time, there will naturally be direction and position.
2: BTC and ETH are likely to reach new highs in the future, this probability is high.
Uncertainty:
1: Whether this triangular range will break downwards or first break upwards is uncertain.
2: Last Friday, global stock markets experienced a spike and pullback; whether US stocks will follow this adjustment tonight is uncertain.
#BTC
#ETH
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Is the rise not over???
The event of Trump coming to power on the 20th of this month has had a certain impact on the structure of the market. Today, the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision has also been finalized, as expected, with a rate hike of 25 basis points. Here’s a summary of the market conditions:
Viewpoint: There will be new highs in the future
Reason
1: BTC currently has a high of 110,000, the time is January 20; ETH currently has a high of 4109.9, the time is December 16, the high points of the two differ by more than a month, which is somewhat unreasonable. Normally, if it were the turning point of a bear market, the highs of both would not differ by such a long time, so from this perspective, it is highly likely that both BTC and ETH will have new highs in the future.
Viewpoint: There will be new highs in the future
Reason
1: BTC currently has a high of 110,000, the time is January 20; ETH currently has a high of 4109.9, the time is December 16, the high points of the two differ by more than a month, which is somewhat unreasonable. Normally, if it were the turning point of a bear market, the highs of both would not differ by such a long time, so from this perspective, it is highly likely that both BTC and ETH will have new highs in the future.
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Market analysis at midnight on November 16
Beware of a downward turn
1: The turning point on the 13th was given in advance, and the rise was in line with expectations, but the speed was a bit faster.
2: Be wary of the period from 12 to 4 in the morning, as there may be a high rise and fall.
3: Both the daily and weekly lines of the US stock market have reached key resistance. Still need to pay attention.
#BTC
#ETH
Beware of a downward turn
1: The turning point on the 13th was given in advance, and the rise was in line with expectations, but the speed was a bit faster.
2: Be wary of the period from 12 to 4 in the morning, as there may be a high rise and fall.
3: Both the daily and weekly lines of the US stock market have reached key resistance. Still need to pay attention.
#BTC
#ETH
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January 14 Market Analysis
On the 9th of this month, I recorded a video explaining key time nodes from a temporal perspective. In the video, it was mentioned that the recent turning point was on the 13th, which has now been validated.
Next is a rebound in the market, but this rebound won't last long, at most until the 20th to 21st, and the peak won't exceed the high point of the 7th of this month. ETH: 3500 will be challenging.
Today: You can buy on dips during the day, it must be buying on dips, not chasing highs;
The image below is from the video recorded on the 9th. You can watch the video again.
#BTC
#ETH
On the 9th of this month, I recorded a video explaining key time nodes from a temporal perspective. In the video, it was mentioned that the recent turning point was on the 13th, which has now been validated.
Next is a rebound in the market, but this rebound won't last long, at most until the 20th to 21st, and the peak won't exceed the high point of the 7th of this month. ETH: 3500 will be challenging.
Today: You can buy on dips during the day, it must be buying on dips, not chasing highs;
The image below is from the video recorded on the 9th. You can watch the video again.
#BTC
#ETH
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January 13 Evening Market Analysis
1: The position where the morning surge fell back, both BTC and ETH are at the four-hour lifeline (resistance).
2: Friends outside the market are advised to observe from this position and not rush to buy the dip; it’s not too late to enter when the four-hour trend turns bullish.
3: It’s also not recommended to chase shorts directly at this moment, as we are nearing a time node for potential trend change, so let's follow with certainty.
Personally, I prefer to wait until the four-hour or longer time frames turn bullish before entering long positions, rather than rushing to buy the dip or chase shorts now.
#BTC
#ETH
1: The position where the morning surge fell back, both BTC and ETH are at the four-hour lifeline (resistance).
2: Friends outside the market are advised to observe from this position and not rush to buy the dip; it’s not too late to enter when the four-hour trend turns bullish.
3: It’s also not recommended to chase shorts directly at this moment, as we are nearing a time node for potential trend change, so let's follow with certainty.
Personally, I prefer to wait until the four-hour or longer time frames turn bullish before entering long positions, rather than rushing to buy the dip or chase shorts now.
#BTC
#ETH
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Market analysis on January 11
Currently, including BTC ETH and altcoins, most varieties have tested the four-hour lifeline upwards. This sign shows that the bulls are willing to start a rebound. The idea is adjusted as follows.
1: The positions below 89,500 and 86,000 of BTC yesterday are not considered for this callback. It is not that these positions cannot be reached, but the timing is not yet ripe. They may be reached during the next callback.
2: ETH: Give up the short position below 3,100 for the time being.
3: After standing on the lifeline in four hours, do the idea of buying low and buying more. Remember: Buy low
#BTC走势分析
#ETH
Currently, including BTC ETH and altcoins, most varieties have tested the four-hour lifeline upwards. This sign shows that the bulls are willing to start a rebound. The idea is adjusted as follows.
1: The positions below 89,500 and 86,000 of BTC yesterday are not considered for this callback. It is not that these positions cannot be reached, but the timing is not yet ripe. They may be reached during the next callback.
2: ETH: Give up the short position below 3,100 for the time being.
3: After standing on the lifeline in four hours, do the idea of buying low and buying more. Remember: Buy low
#BTC走势分析
#ETH
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Market analysis on January 10
Set the tone: Don't chase shorts, be mentally prepared for long orders.
The round of decline that started on the 7th has not ended yet, but there is no need to chase short orders, the profit and loss ratio is not high.
BTC: It is normal to see 89,500. If the force is stronger, it can see 86,000
ETH: It is not difficult to see 3,020.
Emphasis: This position is only a market analysis position, not a contract ambush position.
After the callback, when the morphological structure stabilizes, there will be a rebound, and the height of the rebound will not exceed the high point of the 7th. There will be another decline at the end of the month.
#BTC
#ETH
Set the tone: Don't chase shorts, be mentally prepared for long orders.
The round of decline that started on the 7th has not ended yet, but there is no need to chase short orders, the profit and loss ratio is not high.
BTC: It is normal to see 89,500. If the force is stronger, it can see 86,000
ETH: It is not difficult to see 3,020.
Emphasis: This position is only a market analysis position, not a contract ambush position.
After the callback, when the morphological structure stabilizes, there will be a rebound, and the height of the rebound will not exceed the high point of the 7th. There will be another decline at the end of the month.
#BTC
#ETH
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January 9, 2025 Market Analysis
On the 1st and 6th of this month, views on the monthly line and turning points were published in the square. So far, they have been completely correct.
Today, the focus is on time.
This pullback is not over yet; the following time nodes are quite important and may be when turning points occur.
Around January 13
Around January 20
Around February 3
These three time nodes are significant and may be when turning points occur.
Trading does not require watching the daily fluctuations in market numbers. During important times, it's sufficient to lay low at important positions.
Only those with fate will cross paths; I can only say so much in public.
#BTC
#ETH
On the 1st and 6th of this month, views on the monthly line and turning points were published in the square. So far, they have been completely correct.
Today, the focus is on time.
This pullback is not over yet; the following time nodes are quite important and may be when turning points occur.
Around January 13
Around January 20
Around February 3
These three time nodes are significant and may be when turning points occur.
Trading does not require watching the daily fluctuations in market numbers. During important times, it's sufficient to lay low at important positions.
Only those with fate will cross paths; I can only say so much in public.
#BTC
#ETH
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January 8 Market Analysis (Retracement Targets)
Yiming is currently not updating much content, focusing its energy on serving account revenue, but every piece of updated information is well thought out.
Retracement Targets
BTC: Below 89000
ETH: Below 3000
Altcoins: Will fall below the low point of December 20.
These are not questions of whether they exist, but simply a matter of when they will reach.
Overall trend, refer to the update from Times Square on the 1st, no changes.
#BTC
#ETH
Yiming is currently not updating much content, focusing its energy on serving account revenue, but every piece of updated information is well thought out.
Retracement Targets
BTC: Below 89000
ETH: Below 3000
Altcoins: Will fall below the low point of December 20.
These are not questions of whether they exist, but simply a matter of when they will reach.
Overall trend, refer to the update from Times Square on the 1st, no changes.
#BTC
#ETH
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January 6 Market Viewpoint (Very Important)
Monthly Line: On the 1st, Yiming gave a viewpoint in the square that there would be a rebound first, followed by a decline, with a high probability of a medium bearish close for the month. As of now, this viewpoint has not changed, and there is a high probability of a pullback in the middle to late part of this month.
Short-term: Some altcoins have already shown signs of a pullback, but Bitcoin and Ether have not yet shown pullback signals. Today is likely still upward, but the time from 4 AM to 8 PM on the 7th is quite crucial. Pay attention to upward impulses or structural signals indicating a pullback. It is not recommended to chase highs; short-term positions should be limited to buying low and quick entries and exits, avoiding prolonged battles.
Position: BTC: Pay attention to the resistance range of 10,000 to 103,000 above.
ETH: Pay attention to the resistance range of 3,700 to 3,830 above.
#BTC
#ETH
Monthly Line: On the 1st, Yiming gave a viewpoint in the square that there would be a rebound first, followed by a decline, with a high probability of a medium bearish close for the month. As of now, this viewpoint has not changed, and there is a high probability of a pullback in the middle to late part of this month.
Short-term: Some altcoins have already shown signs of a pullback, but Bitcoin and Ether have not yet shown pullback signals. Today is likely still upward, but the time from 4 AM to 8 PM on the 7th is quite crucial. Pay attention to upward impulses or structural signals indicating a pullback. It is not recommended to chase highs; short-term positions should be limited to buying low and quick entries and exits, avoiding prolonged battles.
Position: BTC: Pay attention to the resistance range of 10,000 to 103,000 above.
ETH: Pay attention to the resistance range of 3,700 to 3,830 above.
#BTC
#ETH
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January 1st Short-term Market Analysis
Today's first short message shared the monthly perspective, regarding the current short-term market, there are the following two points:
1: The bulls show signs of resistance, but have not yet formed a trend.
2: Continuing to retrace downwards to the weekly lifeline and concluding the pullback may lead to the formation of a bullish trend over four hours or more. Be prepared for both scenarios; in the current ambiguous situation, do not participate.
#BTC
#ETH
Today's first short message shared the monthly perspective, regarding the current short-term market, there are the following two points:
1: The bulls show signs of resistance, but have not yet formed a trend.
2: Continuing to retrace downwards to the weekly lifeline and concluding the pullback may lead to the formation of a bullish trend over four hours or more. Be prepared for both scenarios; in the current ambiguous situation, do not participate.
#BTC
#ETH