December 21st Market View

ETH: The first phase of the correction has temporarily come to a pause and will move within the range of 3100~3800 for quite some time.

During the rebound, there will be adjustments at the Fibonacci levels of 38.2%, 50%, and 61.8%; the higher it goes, the greater the resistance.

There are opportunities for buying on dips.

However, it is certain that this is a rebound after a decline, and there will be another correction in the range of 3780~3830, with considerable strength.
#BTC
#ETH

Didn’t I write that there is no such position after the new low?

Remind again

This is not a washout in the bull market, this is the end of the bull market, no suspense.
Most people are unwilling to face this fact. Their chips are trapped, and they will only look for bullish comments that are beneficial to themselves, which will only make them more trapped.

From the monthly line, you can see whether it is the top or the bottom, the beginning or the end of the bull market...

#BTC
#ETH

Continue to hit new lows, the rebound height is limited, it will be lower

Market analysis on the afternoon of December 20

Talk about the current situation
BTC: When it pulls back to the golden section 23.6%, ETH should rebound when it pulls back to the golden section 38.2%, but remember that this is just a rebound, not a reversal. This is also the reason why it is not cost-effective to chase shorts at this position in today's video. It is expected to fall again next week.

BTC: Rebound 100000~102000 range
ETH: Rebound 3600~3700 range

It is not recommended to participate in the rebound market at this position, because it is against the trend and there is uncertainty; the deterministic opportunity is still short. After the pullback next week, there will be a short-term long opportunity when the weekly lifeline is seen, which is also a deterministic opportunity.

Two deterministic opportunities next week BTC+ETH plan to use only a maximum retracement of $500, and the expected return exceeds $5000

Deterministic opportunities are only left to those who are destined~

#BTC
#eth

Sharing of experience

I believe that I am not the only one who can see the risk of this market, but most people are unwilling to face it, because they have not had time to get off the bus or are still looking forward to the market to realize their plan of having a villa by the sea.

But the market will never satisfy the wishes of all retail investors, including myself. We survive in the market and can only respect the market, fear the market, and follow the market.

Retail investors are unwilling to face it because they are not full. Many analysts outside are unwilling to face it. Some of them really did not see the trend change, and some of them saw it, but they dared not tell the truth, because the words of the big bull can attract fans more.

I said that the bull market is over, and most people don’t want to listen, but I still have to say it. This is the objective fact of the K-line structure, not artificial fantasy. If I don’t say it, I will be sorry for this profession. As for whether you can accept it, it is a matter of personal opinion. Just do it without guilt. After all, I am not RMB, and I can’t satisfy everyone. That’s all. I will never make remarks that violate the objective facts of the market in order to make fans happy.

#BTC
#ETH

December 20th Market Analysis Supplement

Clarification: BTC has support at the 95650 position, whether it can hold here is uncertain and depends on the strength of the rebound. The key resistance levels for the intraday rebound are 98600 and 100100.

What is certain is that even if there is a rebound here, it should not be considered a bottom-fishing opportunity; do not trade against the trend.

BTC: The large coin between 85000 and 90000 will be seen soon.

#BTC
#ETH

December 20th Market Analysis

1: The market has definitely turned into a bearish trend, with the daily line breaking the trend; it will eventually reach the monthly line's life line. This is a matter of direction; in the face of risk and the temptation of profit, most people lean towards the temptation of profit.

2: There will be no new highs in the short term. It takes courage to say this, and many people will criticize me, but I am still willing to stand up and state the facts. This short term can be understood as within a year.

3: The decline is not over; next, Bitcoin and Ethereum will only rebound slightly at the weekly and monthly life lines, and the strength of the weekly rebound will not be too strong.

Trading analysis should be based on current objective facts. Relying on macro information from Trump, BlackRock, etc., will only lead you to be lost in a dream. Any actual buying and selling behavior of institutions is impossible for retail investors to know. If everyone knows, who will take over???

Note: There will be further declines, but the bearish side has lost cost-effectiveness and will rebound slightly at the weekly life line (limited to Bitcoin and Ethereum), followed by a continued decline. The structure formed will not easily change, and support at other positions is ineffective.

#BTC
#ETH

Trading Insights

The trading market is an uncertain market. To find certain signals in this uncertain market, these certain signals must align with your own trading system, rather than indicating that every fluctuation is your signal.

Today, I clearly pointed out that Bitcoin and Ethereum have broken below the daily life line, which is certainty. This establishes the direction for the upcoming trend trading.

At noon, I posted again that the Bank of Japan did not raise interest rates this time, which has temporarily halted the market's decline, but it will not change the downward trend that has already formed. Therefore, it is a rebound. I then indicated that the rebound height for BTC would not exceed 105,000, and for Ethereum, it would not exceed 3,890. Some people might think: let’s make a long position to bet on the rebound, then go short afterwards.

This rebound represents an uncertain signal and does not fall within the Yi Ming trading system. There is no guarantee that it will reach the upper position, but Yi Ming knows that once it reaches that upper position, a short position can be taken.

Whether it can reach that level is unknown, but what is known is how to respond if it does. When hunters are hunting, they must wait for the prey to come within their shooting range. Whether the prey will arrive is uncertain; they just need to know to pull the trigger when the prey arrives.
#btc
#eth

December 19 Market Analysis

To be clear: What I posted today is that the daily line fell below the lifeline. This is an objective fact. The meaning of this is to determine that the upward trend of the daily line cycle has ended and the downward trend has begun.

There will also be rebounds in the downward trend. There is no market that has been falling all the time. Just like the upward market, there are also callbacks in the upward trend.

This rebound focuses on the two positions below

BTC: It is highly likely that it will not exceed 105,000, the position of the golden section of 61.8%.

ETH: It is highly likely that it will not exceed 3,890, the position of the golden section of 61.8%.

The "not exceeding" here refers to the closing price of the 4-hour K-line, not the intraday pin.

Only those who are destined to be saved!

#BTC
#ETH

Regarding the Bank of Japan's Interest Rate Decision

The Bank of Japan has decided not to raise interest rates at this monetary policy meeting, leading to a slight rebound, but this will not change the downward trend, and new highs this year are unlikely.

At this point, I am indicating that the daily cycle trend has turned bearish, which may make some people uncomfortable, especially those who are stuck in spot positions.

However, the daily chart breaking below the critical line is an objective fact. Historically, whenever the daily chart breaks the trend, it usually does not end well. Your dissatisfaction does not change this objective fact.

BTC: Daily critical line at 101200, ETH daily critical line at 3822. If you don't understand, you can check if yesterday's daily closing was below this level.

#BTC
#ETH

December 19th

Clarify a few points
1: There will be no new highs for the rest of the year
2: This drop merely signals a change in trend, the real big drop is still to come
3: The next best opportunity to enter the spot market will be after the third quarter of 2025.

Don't ask me how I know, the lifeline told me. Whether you believe it or not is up to you, only those destined will receive it.

#BTC
#ETH

December 19th Market Analysis

Current Situation: ETH has already fallen below the daily life line, and BTC may fall a day later. There’s no question of whether it will happen. Falling below the daily life line can declare the end of the upward trend, which started in October 2022. The depth and duration of this adjustment will be much greater than in March of this year.

When a downward trend is forming, don’t focus on support; there will only be pauses at the weekly and monthly life line positions, while other supports will be ineffective. It’s the same as with upward trends: during an upward trend, don’t look for resistance; resistance is meant to be broken. During a downward trend, don’t look for support; support is meant to be broken.

#BTC
#ETH

Timing, Location, and Harmony

This is important in business, and the same applies to trading.

Timing can be understood in trading as the time of a market change; the rise that started in August has been ongoing for 5 months, which is also the 5th wave since the rise that started in October 2022. A 3-wave rise lasted 8 months, while a 5-wave rise over 5 months is normal.

Location: This morning, both the large pancake and the mistress have tested the four-hour lifeline downwards. Although there hasn't been a substantial break yet, if this position breaks, it can be interpreted as favorable for bears.

Harmony: From 3 AM to 12 PM tomorrow, this is the time for the Federal Reserve and Bank of Japan's interest rate decisions. Ordinary people may focus on the positive news of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve, but the real impact lies in the speeches that follow, with rumors of a slowdown in rate cuts.

If both location and harmony are realized tonight, then we will have the timing, location, and harmony aligned for the bears, which will be a disaster for the bulls, spot trading, and scams.

#BTC
#ETH

12.18 Market Analysis

Keywords: The probability of a decline is high, and there may be a daily level adjustment. Once a daily level adjustment occurs, one should not buy the dip, but rather reduce positions.

1: Bitcoin and Ethereum both tested the four-hour lifeline last night, but have not yet materially broken below it. Focus on whether they can break above the hourly chart's lifeline resistance during a rebound.
2: ETH is relatively close to the four-hour and daily lifelines; if it retraces, it may break below here. Four-hour lifeline 3843 Daily lifeline 3823

Today's Focus
1: Monitor the position of the four-hour closing line, observe every four hours.
2: BTC: Key rebound area: 106809~107220; ETH: 3950~3978

#BTC
#ETH