Bitcoin is at $30,000, and the differences continue to intensify. Past history has no reference value because the short term is full of variables.

Of course, I hope the market will be more rational.

It is best to rotate the sector, Bitcoin has surged by 80%, consolidate for a period of time, and trade time for space. Let Ethereum and Binance Coin lead the market, and continue to lead the market in an alternating cycle, so that the bull market in 2023 and the bull market in 2024 will be handed over more perfectly.

But will the market be rational?

The market is not only rational, but also greedy and fearful.

The bull market is like a super pendulum. At any stage, even just two or three months of spiral consolidation, spiral pitting, and spiral upwards can bury a large number of grievances from chasing the rise and killing the fall.

I said in the article "We May Have to Rely on the Second Rational Trend" on April 6 that even in the first year of the bull market. In Bitcoin, some people have good hands worth more than $10,000 and more than $20,000. At the same time, some people will get bad cards worth more than 30,000 US dollars, or even more than 40,000 US dollars.

In Ethereum, some people take good cards for more than 1,000 US dollars, and some people take bad cards for more than 2,000 US dollars.

The reason why it is a good card is that the lower your chips are, the higher the annualized return will be, and the closer it will be to 100% return by the end of the year.

The reason why it is a bad card is because the higher your chips are, the lower the annualized income will be, and the closer it will be to zero income or even floating loss by the end of the year.

Even if the market breaks through $30,000, I still don’t know what the market will do next.

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Everything can only be dealt with the market from the perspective of probability.

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1. If it exceeds $30,000, it will trigger market greed. It may lead to a large number of villains chasing leverage at $35,000 and $40,000, forming a high in 2023. The overshoot in the first half of the year was followed by a correction and deleveraging in the second half of the year.

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2. If it exceeds $30,000, the market will still be rational. It will still go back and forth around $30,000, fluctuating up and down, repeatedly building bottoms, exchanging time for space.

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3. Black swan emergencies, causing panic. A large number of bastards have fallen below US$25,000 or even close to the double bottom of US$20,000, which has suppressed the annualized currency price and once again created an opportunity for investors to buy at an underestimated price.

The market is very strong, rising from US$16,000 at the beginning of the year to US$29,000 today, with almost no major corrections in the middle. Some are just sideways adjustments, trading time for space and oscillating forward.

The current price of 29,000 US dollars is infinitely close to the 30,000 US dollars mark. It only needs to increase by less than 5 points to break through 30,000 US dollars.

I don't care when it breaks 3.

Whether it is a breakthrough in the first half of this year or a breakthrough in the second half. In fact, sooner or later, $30,000 will be exceeded.

If it breaks through $30,000 in the first half of 2023, it may take more iterations to successfully reach $30,000.