The issuance of RUSD on sofa is approaching 67m. Once this part can release liquidity through pledge and other means, the repurchase fee of RCH can also increase exponentially. From the perspective of the economic model, it will take about 15 days for Flywheel to start.

Although tomorrow is the quarterly delivery day for BTC futures and options, the Triple Witching Day was actually last weekend, so there is no need to worry too much. Traders are very relaxed now. Everyone should consciously reduce leverage and spend the summer vacation more steadily.

Big meal
1 I took my kids to a buffet on Children's Day. The advantage of a buffet is not the taste, but the choice and liquidity you have
2 Recently, the income of dex has gradually increased, which may be one of the reasons for the decline of big cake and second cake
3 When I got up, I saw that the vol of second cake returned to the 6-digit, so I had to grit my teeth and continue to reduce my position
4 Monday is a busy and fulfilling day, and only Monday passes the fastest
5 The details and outline of the stock options offline class were officially announced this week. I feel like I have become a transparent person if I don't move
6 The main trading volume this week is closing positions. I heard from a friend before that their team is prohibited from selling below 50vol, and I agree with it
7 This year, the main focus is on pure neutral trading. If you hold u and don't like to guess the direction, it's right to communicate more.
8 The US stock market is a mystery. If you can't guess it, it will just rise blindly.

The three major stock markets have finally shut down one by one. The music for a while has ended. Many hot stocks that have been long called can be closed. Next, wait for some unpopular sectors to rise.

Yesterday, I cleared the ideal PUT, and basically got meat in this wave.
But I have to sigh that it is really difficult to make money from short orders in US stocks.
This trip to SG has a lot of feelings. The first thing I did when I came back was to start U-standard + reduce spot holdings

This time, I plan to continue to reduce 30%+ of spot holdings after taking profit MSTR until the price breaks through the previous support point of 57,000.

The current plan is to sell 1-2 points every day. And the delta exposure has been negative, ensuring at least 50% hedging ability

(But I changed some spot stocks with big cakes, and I will talk about the details tomorrow)

The reasons are as follows

1 I don’t deny that I can go to 100,000 this year. Even if the probability is 50%, it is only 40% APR (multiplied by the probability is 20%). What if this market has more certain opportunities close to 40%? To give a simple example, the double U mining of the popular chain can be close to 20+, can we add some magrin?
2 The current growth of option positions obviously cannot keep up with the growth of prices. We talked about this offline in Shanghai

3 The two-cake ETH will inevitably cause a huge blood-sucking of the liquidity of the entire industry. Whether it can withstand it is a question

4 The fangs of the distant bulk...cannot be hidden

The milk powder and tuition fees of the children

The wine and delicacies of the restaurant

My own digital products and 648
There is no currency standard
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Yesterday, the US stock market fell across the board. Nvidia's financial report sucked away the money of Americans, and PDD's financial report sucked away the money of Chinese people... Hong Kong stocks and A-shares are not ideal.
As can be seen from the above figure, mining stocks such as CB and MARA also fell during the session. The core reason is the possible impact of the passage of ETFs. To a certain extent, the impact of mining stocks is quite large. After all, the younger brother of POS has entered the pool of ETFs, and the POW circle has been robbed of a wave of heat.

The problem with POS is that the concentration is getting higher and higher, and the problem with POW is that the sunk cost remains high.

How nice it would be if gold grew from the ground...

Although POW will produce so-called mining tyrants, or even chip tyrants, in a sense, POW is a real roll. You can open a very powerful mine, but you can't stop me from digging with a garbage machine. You can sell your Man Han banquet, and I can also sell my pancakes on the street.

Adding the circulating market value of the two cakes themselves is really not much less than that of the big cake. So... the selling pressure is really quite large.
Grayscale's discount is not only the cost of management fees, but also the loss of unpledgeable shares. It's really miserable...

I changed some Boya shares in Hong Kong stocks yesterday, mainly because this company is also constantly buying big and second cakes. In addition to the previous rumors, Hong Kong Stock Connect will add ETF products, but it is too non-compliant to directly release products. How about releasing a company?

This company may be a first choice.

In the second quarter, 762 coins were bought, costing 63,000 US dollars each. The funds consumed were 48 million US dollars. The cost of the second cake was also within 3,000. The boss has a good vision. This company started out in chess and cards, so it can be considered close to the water

Finally, answer a question, why didn't it rise after passing?

Let me tell you my point of view
1 US stocks are typical sell news. When the pass rate is 80+, there is basically no upward space. The car is heavy, the fee rate is high, and the vega is expensive... Even yesterday, the IV on the PUT side was in the sky. It is very likely that someone bought PUT and did DDH and basically made a profit.

2 Many funds invest in the pie circle on a budget basis, that is, they plan how much to invest here. The second pie will at most take away some of the big pie's budget, and will not form a new budget pool.
3 If the SEC continues to restrict the POS of the second pie, it will still weaken its attractiveness, after all, interest-bearing assets will no longer generate interest...
4 The power of the foundation and developers like Vitalik Buterin raises a huge question: will they be governed? UNI was headquartered in the United States a while ago, and was immediately warned when it issued a dividend. So should everyone be monitored in the United States?
5 Currently, the exchange rate trend of Bitcoin and Bitcoin has reversed, and you can switch to configure appropriately, but it is likely that when it falls, everyone will spiral down together...

If we make an analogy for this ETF, that is, if we now travel back to the housing market in 2018, and suddenly announce that small-property houses can enter the market in compliance within 6 months, will the market be more popular or will it quickly cool down?

Nvidia, which was abandoned by Bitcoin, has increased tenfold, and it has not yet passed its previous high.
If I have to choose between POW and POS, I still choose POW. After all, it is fair, fair, and fair

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There was quite a lot of news yesterday, I will simply summarize and comment on it
1. Federal Reserve Board member Bowman said that he is willing to raise interest rates if inflation stagnates or reverses. Inflation will continue to remain high for a period of time, and the rebalancing process of the labor market has slowed down. (Basically equivalent to not saying anything, retail investors should not pay too much attention to small opinions, and it is more meaningful to continue to look at the financial reports of giants. Energy has continued to be high recently, and it is not easy to ease inflation)
2. Apple plans to launch a thinner iPhone in 2025, which may be priced higher than Pro Max. (It is said that the code name is SLIM, but the problem is that it still comes with a mobile phone case in China... I can only say that it will break if it is dropped without a case. Increase the frequency of changing phones? Anyway, I am not optimistic about Apple. There is basically no eye-catching consumer-level improvement after the m chip)
3. Fitch raised ASML's rating to A+, with a stable outlook. We have talked about this company a lot. It has a lot of attention among chip stocks. If there is a strategy for call options, you can do it appropriately. Forget about put options. I especially like to open higher with a gap. The dog market is very strong.
4. The three major U.S. stock indexes closed with mixed gains and losses. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.35% to stand above 40,000 points, and rose 1.24% this week; the Nasdaq fell 0.07%, and rose 2.11% this week; the S&P 500 rose 0.12%, and rose 1.54% this week. Most of the popular Chinese stocks rose, and the Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index rose 0.38%, and rose 6.53% this week. (Note that copper has a huge premium in July, which is more expensive than August. There may be a strange, huge, epic forced liquidation here. If you are interested, you can study it yourself. I dare not talk too much)
5. COMEX gold futures closed up 1.44% at $2419.8/ounce; COMEX silver futures closed up 6.36% at $31.775/ounce; spot silver closed up 6.24% at $31.39/ounce, setting a new high in 11 years. (Refer to the big cake, we took advantage of a wave of precious metals, and you know why the second cake is useless. Although it also moved with the real second brother Solana yesterday)
6. The settlement price of WTI crude oil futures rose 1.05% to $80.06/ (I continue to increase my positions in uso and xle)
7 Starbucks We used the RR spread strategy in my new video on YouTube and made a rebound long reserve. The effect is not bad. It may be slowly closed when opportunities arise. Overall, it is not a big problem to return to 80. But the core problem of Starbucks is the problem of all coffee shops. The turnover rate is not good... One cup of coffee for a whole day, and it will be summer soon and you can go in and use the air conditioning. This capitalist really can't stand it

8 BTC, the price moved, but VEGA and premium did not move. It can only be said that the brothers who use CALL naked long are too miserable... If they do not close their positions in an instant, they can spit out their profits. . .

For US stocks, I made a ladder spread of MSTR, 1600 BUY  1800 SELL 1950 SELL, and the expiration date is mid-June. Interested friends can FO one lot. But the premise is that you at least have MSTR itself or ETF and other spot as support, so as not to be completely penetrated by the last leg.
Finally, I will post a picture of the current RV curve of signalplus for everyone to continue to look at. Although the current RV is no longer plummeting, it is still sideways at a low level. The trend of this position is still not moving. If you really want to do call options, you may have to buy pure plus DDH to withstand the wear and tear of theta.

Thank you for watching, there is quite a lot of content. It is not easy to write when you are away from home. Remember to like it

Yesterday's US stock market was still boiling with the concept of WSB, but the overall performance was much lower than before. GME and AMC both closed with a super big negative line, which made the dealer sell a lot of goods.

I emphasized in yesterday's article that AMC's car is much heavier than GME, mainly for the following points

1 In terms of market value, although GME is much higher than AMC, GME has basically gotten rid of losses, with net assets of about US$4.8. Before the explosion, the lowest stock price was around US$11. Considering its own brand effect, plus the fact that the gaming industry has not been bad in recent years. The track is still positive and healthy.

2 AMC's net assets are negative US$7, and the stock price has only reached US$6.8 including yesterday's surge. Selling all is just enough to pay off the debt. This... This also shows that once a heavy asset company falls, there is no bottom at all, because most of your assets also need to be depreciated and need continuous maintenance to consume your cash flow. In addition, the competition in the cinema industry in the United States is much more intense than ours (ours is a bit of a semi-monopoly, and all the heavy assets are handed over to franchisees).

In short, AMC shareholders must always consider whether this thing will be insolvent. GME can also hold on to its golden brand and slowly survive in a good track... If one day a game tycoon wants to buy some to play and develop offline business, it may take off again.

By the way, WEN has also started to increase its volume significantly at the bottom recently, and its market value is only 4 billion. If WSB also learns from us to do a wave of V50 this time, it is not impossible to get together in WEN to have some shareholder dinners in the future. After all, although GME has offline stores, there is no place to sit down to eat, drink, defecate and urinate... Continue to hoard remote options.

My beloved BB was also considered to have pulled the market yesterday, directly pulling up one of my remote options that was almost zero. The trading volume almost doubled tenfold on the day, and continued to rise after the market closed. At least this thing is not a big loss, and it is still very cost-effective to rush in and take a chance... My current remote call, if it rises again, I will sell some

By the way, an option player's operation perspective can give you some inspiration.

Yesterday, my most common operation was to sell a large number of BlackBerry puts, because the IV was pulled too high instantly, but in fact, the safety factor of the PUT end is very high, and the price is also very high.Around 3 yuan, you can achieve an annualized return of 10 points in a month. No matter how you look at it, there is a problem with the PUT pricing of 3 yuan here. I sold a few thousand dollars directly and have made 25% today... Finally, let's talk about Mosaic. The market is still weak, but it is not an avalanche. Both the quarterly premiums of big cakes and cottages are still performing well. Therefore, it is urgent to see the rhythm of shock washing. There are still many stories to tell about the US stock market. But considering that WSB is the same as the last meme, I suggest that everyone take advantage of the shock to slowly unload the leverage of futures. Don't be greedy. It is still important to have a safe and stable summer vacation.

Chinese stocks soared, and Hong Kong stocks continued to be red.

At the beginning of the year, many people received snowballs and all the blood was recovered.

Oh, the world where only four times leverage snowballs burst.
The cost of leverage is the enemy of time, and the volatility of leverage is the enemy of principal. In short, they are all enemies, and there are no friends. It is very similar to those struggling people we encounter who are full of energy and shout that they must succeed.
996 and 007 are actually a kind of inefficient internal volume, which can't roll out Musk, Newton, or Jobs.

In fact, this truth was discovered by slave owners during the slave society. If you don't liberate productivity and simply fight against time, the labor success you can harvest is limited to picking cotton and picking watermelons. Want to find someone to invent a product for you? Stop it. Do you want to invent a fully automatic rope to make yourself tighter?
"Guess if anyone from the DingTalk project team has been tortured by DingTalk by switching to a new company"

The market is not bad. Let me start with a complaint. With the rise of the WSB concept, small stocks such as GME and AMC were forced to short due to a gap-up opening.

The trading volume jumped directly from the lowest 100 million in the previous few days to 5.5 billion. But if you look at the line, this stock has been ambushed for at least 3-5 days in advance. As expected, it is difficult for retail investors to eat anything hot...
I once went to a GME store in San Francisco to buy NS cartridges to play... because the US is so boring... To be honest, it feels good. If there is such a game chain store at my doorstep to accompany me through the happy time from 6 to 22 years old, I will also have a special feeling for it.

Although AMC is also rising, this thing... loses too much money, and it has not risen too much. After 23 years, it has eaten the blood and sweat of many stockholders. After all, the time dimensions of speculation and investment are completely different... (You can compare the weekly line of GME by yourself, there is no such exaggerated cliff here)

This stock we talked about in the offline class, many people have made some money in the spot market before, and the recent performance is not ideal, mainly because the global catering sector has experienced a correction, such as MCD (there were some food safety management issues in the mainland today, continue to pay attention)
But I must emphasize that WEN is also a concept stock of WSB, so when I saw the GME incident yesterday, I immediately opened a few more calls on WEN to add to it.
After all, attention is coming, the wind is coming, why are you hiding from the strong wind?

Finally, let me say the following

The core of WSB's stock selection is that the stocks are old, not very profitable, well-known, the childhood memories of the wealthy, but the stocks that will not die are the most suitable.

If you want to map it in China, it is a bit similar to

A White Rabbit Milk Candy B Jianlibao

Forgive me, except for food, other businesses seem to have a very deep background in state-owned enterprises, and many of them have been gradually eliminated by the times. It also indirectly shows that our ever-changing infrastructure iteration speed is completely different from the old capitalism that is in decline.
Maybe when the post-00s grow up, the brands in their hearts will be Luckin Coffee, Heytea, Holiland, etc.

In the early morning, US stock futures opened slightly lower, but the Nasdaq remained stable in the middle track, and the situation was not severe.

As for the Asian session, the huge haze of the social financing figures over the weekend is still there, so we have to continue to observe. Anyway, everyone should sell less PUT.

The people who will eventually be rewarded by this market must be those who live long. You can get 500,000 from 2,000, and it must not be based on technology.

There is not much to talk about the market, let's talk about ideas.

There was a topic yesterday. Someone said that people nowadays have more independent thoughts, which leads to sharp personalities and it is not easy to stay together for a long time, which directly gave rise to various social phenomena such as low fertility rate.

We will not comment on the following sentences, but I would like to say a few words about the point of independent thinking.

First of all, the big topic of whether we admit that there is free will has been debated for a long time. Let's talk about it in a simple way, that is, how is thought born?

We input a lot of information every day, just like we take in a lot of food. In the end, most of it will be excreted and leave our body, but there is indeed a part that constantly replaces our parts like the ship of Theseus. At a certain critical point, our body has become the whole composition of food.

So in a sense, our body is mostly composed of our food (a very small part is formed in the mother's womb and genes)
The same is true for thoughts. In fact, I think the great pain of young people in this era comes from.

We are the genes of the agricultural age, raised by people in the industrial age, but born in the information age. This has caused a comprehensive awkwardness. (The difference between developed countries and us is that some of them have been separated from some genes of the agricultural age, and some were raised in the information age in advance)
The most typical difference is to look at eating habits, whether it is mainly protein or carbon water. When your GDP is too low, don't even think about it... you can only fry carbon water and move bricks to work. .

In a sense, emphasizing one's independence in thought has always been a manifestation of non-independence. People must first admit that their thoughts are heavily influenced, and then, under this heavy pressure, they can find a way to manually create a BIOS as the last firewall for their own principles.

Li Ao once mentioned a concept called "book poisoning", which I think is very suitable for everyone to review in the information age. His original words were probably that others can't read so many books because they have book poisoning and they can't get rid of it. (Writing books and giving speeches can help you detoxify yourself. Isn't it a bit similar to me writing on WeChat every day...)

In the information age, if a person does not have a stable output channel, he will definitely get seriously ill. This channel can be social media, a gathering with friends, or a private one-on-one complaint. But this kind of output should be a collision of thinking forms with opinions or self-analysis. Instead of simply chatting about gossip or something and commenting, because commenting can easily lead to a self-reinforcing vicious circle of mutual praise, which directly leads to a feeling of being more "independent"

We also have a huge sadness about thought. Our history and culture do not encourage everyone to organize and speak out. It doesn't matter if you, a few old men, privately drink 2 taels of white wine and brag about it without any nutrition.

Reflected in investment, you will find that many people can only rely on the "satisfaction" brought by investment.

But the lack of risk awareness is almost zero. For example, he thinks that buying a copycat can turn the situation around, and investing can help workers counterattack, but what copycat can be bought? Lack of watching those KOLs who cut leeks every day to promote projects to him... It's like the old stockholders who read newspapers and lost their retirement funds in stock trading many years ago in the stock hall.

Not holding is also a kind of holding

Not trading is also a kind of trading
But the so-called independence of thought is generally a state of not being independent but thinking that you are independent.

If you say that independence really exists, then
only economic independence is true independence.

Only the consumption habits that clearly understand your core needs when consuming are independent.

Only the unity of rights and obligations can lead to independence. Inconsistency is either slavery or PUA.
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The relationship between BTC and real estate

Some people say that domestic real estate should also start to slowly repair. I agree with this view, but the premise is to start the 28 repair and squeeze out the bubble of school district housing.

Communities with good environment, low plot ratio and high quality of residents will slowly exceed the average line, whether it is rent or house price.

Good houses will be like big cakes, and bad ones will be like cottages. Slowly widen the gap, just like big cakes are as stable as dogs, and other ones wail every day

For good houses with strong indicators, even if the location is a little far away, or even there is no subway, as long as the community culture of the community has been established and the supporting facilities are relatively complete, there is no problem.
Why? Because many people in improved housing actually don’t need to work 996 to catch up with the peak, and don’t want a large number of tenants with complex compositions to rush into the community. For example, the ideal tenant is a teacher in a nearby school or a middle-level manager in a nearby factory

Look at the United States, many communities voted to reject public transportation near the community for this reason
A certain degree of "inconvenience" is acceptable, and it has become a threshold in reverse. As long as it does not delay basic delivery such as express delivery and takeout, there is no problem.

Some time ago, we talked about it when the Hong Kong Stock Exchange and Hong Kong stocks were both at a low point. The general logic is also very simple. The Hang Seng may not have a bottom in the short term, but the Hong Kong Stock Exchange is a company that continues to make money, and it makes a good profit. Although Singapore has intercepted a lot of industries and talents from HK, in the securities market, the Hong Kong Stock Exchange is definitely still a relatively stable target. Although the Hong Kong Stock Connect is quite lame, after all, so many state-owned enterprises and central enterprises also need overseas capital exchanges and exports, so Hong Kong stocks are definitely much more convenient than others exchanging foreign currency to buy them. Considering the terrifying 20% ​​discount on the AH price that has always existed, it directly makes foreigners cry with envy.
The Hong Kong Stock Exchange finally pulled up today. I cleared all the naked calls, and the spread continued to move forward and ROLL UP to a farther place (moving farther and requiring higher odds, for example, I opened a 310-330 medium-term option here, with an odds of about 1 to 6)
You can usually look at the option chain quotes of signalplus and you will understand that basically the spread odds near the ATM are very bad, about 1 to 2, but if there are some fluctuations, such as around DELTA0.2, it can reach 1 to 5. This unilateral betting strategy is very comfortable, at least much better than naked buying
The biggest advantage of the spread compared to naked buying options is that THETA decays very slowly, and there will be no big loss if you really accept the stop loss at any time.

For example, here I opened a far-end two-cake 3500-4000 bull market spread, bullish, the maximum profit point is 4000, that is, the put option end is full, and the call option also gets full profit.
But in fact, my 0.15 DELTA exposure only cost 0.7 theta per day, which is very profitable. And the vega is only slightly exposed, which is hard to see in many combinations.
If I really want to make an analogy, I think the spread is actually very similar to the small bets in the football world. For example, when two football teams play, I think the score of team A falls between 2-4. The odds are very high, and as the score continues to rise, the probability of this spread continues to increase, pushing up the achievability of this combination.
There are a lot of dry goods today, I will talk about it here first, and you can slowly digest the details. The video should be released today to recommend a new strategy to everyone, RR spread

By the way, the recent IV of ETH is really comfortable, VEGA and theta are eaten and taken together. Pay attention to the entire picture below. Although there are more than 1,000 thetas every day, when it is actually reflected in the above picture, there is not much blue.
Because many Greek letters will be converted into theta before expiration, but if they are not due, or the market changes, profits and losses will be realized in the form of other letters. It's like you bought an Apple phone, and in the long run it is consumed by depreciation costs, but it was suddenly broken today, this is a gamma crit... If you don't buy Apple Care, you don't buy PUT, and you have to carry VEGA yourself
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Yesterday, BTC was dead. It fell a few points, and there was no movement. There are rumors in the market that the Hong Kong Stock Connect will open ETF subscriptions, but this is not very credible. After all, here, things that exist exist, and things that are reasonable are reasonable. It's like we prohibit gambling, but we don't care about the small money of the neighborhood mahjong. We prohibit PCs, but you can't kill all the street vendors. We just don't allow you to have assembly lines in Dongguan. We prohibit fraud but tacitly accept the existence of marriage fraud. We encourage the glory of labor, but we always think that whoever is weak is right.

So this thing, boldly predicting, will still be a certain target of the Hong Kong Stock Connect, and gradually become MSTR, but the regulators tacitly allow you to invest in its stocks through the Hong Kong Stock Connect (it is likely that this stock will have some state-owned enterprise background to prevent running away)

After all, the spirit of crossing the river by feeling the stones is still very important. We will continue to follow the path that Brother Soha has taken. We can issue convertible bonds, trade options, and try all kinds of ways to see how much harm or impact this thing will have on everyone when it is packaged as a stock.

Meitu also did it in the last bull market.

But, if you don't go all in, you just don't go all in...

Sanbing's recent strength has something to do with the cooperation between this sol and Google Cloud. Other copycats have already stopped, but it continues to repair the price. Source: signalplus.com's trading vane
The US stock market was also in a state of collapse yesterday. I feel so sad that my USO did not take profit at a high level, but I continued to observe the market yesterday and made some operations.

First of all, Starbucks' performance plummeted a while ago, falling nearly 20 points, and its market value evaporated 110 billion yuan. The former CEO and founder of Starbucks also expressed his views on X. Let me briefly summarize it.

1 The Chinese market is very important (although everyone has no money, coupled with the impact of cheap coffee, but we don't need to compete in the 9.9 market. There is still a fixed group of people who only recognize our brand in the 39.9 market. Starbucks can beat many coffee brands by taking advantage of the rent-free or discounted leases in the newly opened business districts)
2 Starbucks stores in the United States need to be renovated (I remember I went into a Starbucks in New York, and I thought it was a toilet... You can understand this as the LITE version of Starbucks. In China, if it is not a PRO, at least there is no reduced configuration store. The worst is a little smaller, but you won't think it is a toilet... The decoration can really match Shaxian) If this continues, Starbucks in the United States will also be regarded as 9.9
3 Sales will fluctuate, but the experience will not (to be honest, I feel that Starbucks' coffee and takeout are okay in the past few years. After all, the Frappuccino Mocha Cocoa Flakes are YYDS. If you find a substitute, please tell me. No matter how you drink other brands, it feels worse)

Combined with the news of Starbucks testing tips last year, it is more interesting. It is recommended that global chain restaurants like Starbucks pay more to baristas and cancel tips in practice, which will definitely increase their favorability. However, Starbucks also responded that this is the fault of the union...
Starbucks employees have been the "center of the union movement" in the past year. Their movement has spread rapidly in the United States because the company has gone from "no union in December last year to more than 250 unions today."

It seems that most people who want to cheat the poor are not well-fed... To be honest, things like tips should not exist in listed chain service industries. You can't even provide standardized services, and you can't handle the basic salary and benefits of workers. How can you go public?
You want me to take an extra dollar from me just because you smiled a little more when you gave me coffee? Ask me if you agree to a 7-point mortgage first?
However, I don’t think Starbucks is expensive at 72, and I do plan to invest in some anti-inflation fast-moving consumer goods brands such as coffee, so I sold some puts and bought some calls to synthesize some longs. The puts were around 67, which I wanted to take, and the calls were a dream. I won’t reveal the specific positions, so you can judge for yourself.