Let me first say the conclusion: The violent bull market is about to start. When the volatility is reduced to the extreme, it will explode, without exception. It is definitely not a bear market now, but a halftime break in the bull market.
In the bottom area of June 2023, I applied the alt score to do an analysis, and it is more accurate now. This time I used two indicators to comprehensively analyze whether the market is in the bottom area, that is, BTC's historical volatility index and alt score. Just look at the picture to speak, how much money you can make depends on this time. Let's rush 100,000 U for the big cake first. The inscriptions are ordi sats rats and atom quark PIZZA, which are basically these. The so-called value coins, it doesn't matter whether you play or not. When the mood comes, you will speculate on the inscriptions and then the meme. The alt season will definitely come, but most alts may not rise too much. For some institutional coins with huge fdv, you can allocate less or not participate. #BTC#ORDI#SATS#RATS#PIZZA#ATOM #QUARK
What is reverse thinking, and what are its five very important thinking models?
What is reverse thinking, and what are its five very important thinking models? The book 'Hitting the Essence' discusses this in detail, let's learn together.
Today specifically study the first success-failure model:
When most people are studying how to achieve happiness and success, Charlie Munger believes that to understand how to achieve happiness in life, one must first study how life can become painful; to study how enterprises can grow strong and large, one must first study how enterprises decline. Because Charlie Munger knows that sometimes positive thinking may not lead us to where we want to go, but reverse thinking can.
For a cryptocurrency to gain sufficient consensus, it must be bottom-up, allowing believers and diamond hands to make money. For example, the success of BTC and coins like ORDI is like this, but some VC coins like ICP and ARB, when they launch, have tens of billions or even hundreds of billions in FDV, which will not create a consensus foundation.
Our investment thinking is quite the opposite, it is top-down, which is what we call the God perspective. The book 'Principles' talks about high-level thinking, which is essentially the same.
Why is the God perspective so powerful: First, it allows us to detach from the 'I' and become an observer or overseer in our own life and existence. As an observer, what you see is different from what 'I' see, and you won't get lost in your own feelings and emotions. Second, it gives us a broader vision and clearer insight, enabling us to make more accurate decisions and judgments.
Let's talk about the elections and the market trends: No matter who is elected, the result is an increase. The major trend is an increase; this is the mid-stage of a bull market. The medium trend is an increase; it has been seven months since the halving. The minor trend is an increase; the long-short ratio in the seven-day contract market has reached 1/4. Recently, after a drop, it was followed by a short squeeze.
The essence of the cryptocurrency world is finance, and the essence of finance is energy.
A small story: There is a city called Boston, and this is how they planned their roads, as their roads have no regular pattern. In fact, their roads were widened using the paths of cattle. When cattle walk, they usually follow the terrain, seeking the easiest path; if there is a mountain ahead, the cattle will not force their way through; they will choose the easiest route, even if it means going around to the other side of the mountain.
In a structure, energy often travels along the path of least resistance. It is not only true for cattle; it applies to the cryptocurrency world, the stock market, and everything in nature. Once you grasp the underlying principles of energy flow, analyzing market trends becomes much easier.
In the past 4-5 months, I have only focused on the two projects, BTC and HAC. I have studied the most basic logic. If the logic is not strong, I dare not hold a large position for a long time. I can't even deceive myself. Almost all the coins in the current currency circle are scams. The so-called value is just wishful thinking. It is valuable in a small circle and in the short term.
I don't hold any meme, Ai, or institutional coins. Whether I miss the opportunity or not make money, I don't envy them. One thing is that fully unlocked coins may be better than institutional unlocked coins, and some decentralization may be the biggest highlight. Apart from that, there is no value. In essence, it is all air. If you see it too thoroughly, you may not be able to do it. No matter what track it is, it is all hype, and ultimately it is working for the track of sound currency. Therefore, only BTC HAC and other things are valuable in the long run. It's hard to say about the short term. It may be normal to hype it up dozens of times. Let alone Dogecoin, I think ETH has no value. It's too empty to hype it up. The narrative is too hollow, the ceiling is just a cakewalk, there is almost no innovation, and there is no decentralization.
Without decentralization, we retail investors will be harvested in the end. Is the previously popular Ripple XRP still there? What other public chains are there? I dare not hold it for 5 years, but I would rather not hold it for 5 minutes.
In October 2013, the only application scenario of Bitcoin, the dark web website called Silk Road, was forcibly closed by the US government. It is said that BTC has become a complete air currency and should return to zero. In fact, after a short-term decline, BTC rose from 85u to around 1175u in more than a month.
Let's analyze why this is the case? BTC's track is the world's sound currency, and BTC's application scenario is payment and settlement on the dark web. But the main value of BTC is its value storage. Even if its short-term payment and settlement scenario is turned off, it will not affect its value. Valuable things will sooner or later return to their place.
No matter what we invest in, we must think more about its essence? Where is its value?
What is the long-term value of Hacash? #BTC#Hacash #Hac
The biggest trap of the Fat Cat incident is the sunk cost. The deeper you fall, the more you choose to commit suicide. In economics, "sunk costs" refer to those expenses that have been paid and cannot be recovered, such as time, money, emotions, energy, etc.
In life, many people are often reluctant to give up their sunk costs: You bought a movie ticket, watched it for half an hour and found it was a bad movie, but still watched it; You have been in love with your boyfriend for 3 years, and you obviously have no feelings for each other, but you are still together; You travel to popular attractions, but when you arrive, you will still walk the whole way when you see that there are too many people and the scenery is bad; You have worked in an industry for many years, but you have no development prospects and don’t want to give up the accumulated experience, so you continue to worry and worry...
The amazing sunk cost tells us that timely stop loss is the high-end configuration of adults. Many people invest in a stock or a coin, and it falls by 90%. If you tell him to cut losses, he may scold you, saying that if you cut losses again, there will be no more, but in fact, if you don’t cut losses, there will be no more. 99.9% of the assets in the currency circle are close to zero in the end, and no more than 0.1% are truly valuable.
Not only in the financial market, but also in real life. Cutting losses, stopping losses in time, and stopping profits are all the highest wisdom. Being PUA is not scary, what is scary is not knowing how to cut losses.#FatCat Incident#StopLoss #PUA
More than 80% of KOLs have been calling for bottom-fishing almost every day from January to April. I wonder if the bottom-fishing has made money in recent months. There are no more than three real good opportunities a year. Frequent bottom-fishing means frequent quilting.
I divide the coins in the cryptocurrency circle into two types:
1. The first type is weakly cyclical, which means that the fluctuations will not be particularly large, and then it will rise slowly and steadily. This type of coin has the following characteristics: good narrative, strong trend, powerful dealers, solid fundamentals, no need to worry about being trapped for a long time, no need to worry about not running at the high point, and you will feel at ease after buying. Even if the market does not hype this track, it will slowly rise and explode. Don't worry about no funds entering, and then no rise for half a year or a year. This type of coin is generally a public chain. The coins that meet the conditions in this bull market are: BTC ETH STX SOL TAO RNDR KAS HAC AVAX INJ PENDLE BGB and other public chain coins.
2. The second type is very cyclical, and you must stop profit after the hype, otherwise you will stand guard for several months or even a year. Common tracks include MEME, RWA, AI, NFT, DEFI, L2, inscription, metaverse, AR, blockchain games, storage, depin, etc.
Summary: For long-term configuration, choose the first one. If it is the second coin, you must stop profit when you make a profit. In the worst case, you must withdraw the principal. Otherwise, it may be a waste of money in the end, and the profit will turn into a loss.
Regarding investment, I have always done independent research and formed my own school. Currently, I rarely play mainstream coins and only play early value coins. I quit when KAS entered the mainstream currency, I quit when PENDLE was on Binance, and I quit when MAGIC was on Binance. Because I found a coin that was better than them and had a higher yield.
I have participated in many dozens of times and hundreds of times coins. Although I encountered many pitfalls, the coins I invested heavily in were all profitable. For example, from the MAGIC CFX PENDLE KAS DNX I started in early 23 to the current HAC HACD, I have never lost money. HAC made the most money.
Snipers and investors may be the same type of people. Thinking about a question: Why can't sniper rifles fire continuously?
After firing the first shot of a sniper rifle, you have to manually pull the bolt and insert the second bullet. Even after the first shot of the sniper rifle is fired, the first bullet case will not automatically eject, but the bullet case must be manually ejected. The purpose of this is what is it then?
The answer is: maximize shooting accuracy to the maximum possible extent. The more automated a gun is, the lower its accuracy will be, and the less automated it is, the higher its accuracy will be. Because a gun with high automation needs to fire continuously, the vibration and side effects are great, so there is no time to adjust the accuracy. This is very similar to investing. Many leeks have no time to spare and rush around all day long. What do you think their results will be?
For high-end sniper rifles, the gun only fires bullets, and no other actions are required. It can only do this one thing. Sniper shooting is the same as investing as an investor, focus and focus will lead to success. There are no miracles in the world, only the power of concentration and focus. #investment#speculation #sniper
Many people have been speculating in coins for many years. In fact, I don’t know the underlying logic of BTC’s success:
As a black hole that continuously absorbs fiat currency There are four success factors for BTC: 1. Decentralization (no centralized person or organization can do evil) 2.POW mining (electricity costs determine the cost of COIN) 3. It continues to be halved every four years, so the difficulty increases, the mining cost increases, and the price increases. 4. Use UTXO accounting to avoid double spending. If there is no disruptive innovation in BTC, it is impossible to pose any challenge to BTC. Since ETH gave up POW, it gave up the track of world currency and switched to the direction of world computer. The ceiling is much lower. Even if ETH did not give up POW, it would not be successful in becoming a world currency. It is better to give up early.
I am only interested in coins that can increase by 100 or 1,000 times. I have no interest in coins that can only increase by 5 or 10 times.
Because the greater the potential, the higher the safety cushion and the lower the risk. At the same time, the longer you hold, the more you can earn.
For many coins that can increase by 10 times, you may get a big correction after you get on board. It is a pity to stop profit, and you will be trapped if you don't stop profit.
It is like chicken ribs, tasteless to eat, but a pity to throw away.
The greatest innovation of BTC is the UXTO accounting method
I was thinking about a question today. The greatest innovation of BTC is the UXTO accounting method. This guarantees the success of BTC, so what are the genius inventions of Hacash?
Hacash also has many innovations: 1. The first inscription on blockchain (2019). 2. The first POW NFT in the blockchain. 3. The first Flatcoin (maintains stability in purchasing power while being resilient to economic uncertainty caused by the traditional financial system). 4. Separate payment and value storage, and at the same time achieve the ultimate in payment, security, decentralization, and millisecond payment. The value storage has also achieved the ultimate, HACD is both currency and NFT collectibles.
Today I thought about and sorted out the advantages and disadvantages of Hacash, BTC, and gold:
What problem does HACASH solve? (What BTC does not solve) Large-scale payment and insufficient currency flexibility. Hacash: A purchasing power stable currency system that inherits the advantages of Bitcoin, complies with the gold purchasing power adjustment mechanism, and is completely decentralized. In the Hacash ecosystem, HAC controls circulation rights, BTC controls pricing rights, and HACD controls value storage rights. HACD -- one block takes 5 minutes, and one HACD is generated in 5 blocks. The maximum number of coins produced per day is 58, with a total amount of 16^6=16.77 million. HAC -- One block every 5 minutes, 1 block produces 8 HACs, 288 blocks are produced every day, 288*8 = 2304, and there is no upper limit on the total amount.
The five major siphon black holes in the Hacash ecosystem:
1. Siphoning BTC: The one-way transfer of BTC started behind Hacash will continue to absorb BTC and transfer it to the HAC chain, and then exchange it for HAC.
2. Siphoning on POW coins: There are currently many POW coins, but not many are truly innovative and valuable. The rising price of HAC HACD will have a siphon effect on other POW coins.
3. Siphoning the computing power of mining machines: The computing power of the entire network of mining machines will continue to flow into the HACASH mining ecosystem. In the past two months, the computing power has increased from 30 to 380GH/S. At a speed visible to the naked eye, the computing power is rising every day. It is expected to break through soon. 1024G, reaching T-level computing power.
Hacash inherits Cypherpunk’s vision of becoming a more stable currency. Cypherpunk History: 1982: E-cash, the first electronic currency prototype. Reason for failure: centralization of settlement 1993: Crypto Trading Cards, a digital cash collection Te card combined with cryptographic art, the first NFT with PoW mechanism in history. Reason for failure: only at the idea level. 1997 Hashcash invented the PoW mechanism. Reason for failure: PoW cannot be reused and circulated. 1998 Bit Gold can store and circulate PoW value. Reason for failure: fixed mining difficulty, inflation cannot be solved. B-money is the first cryptocurrency to pursue stable currency value. Reason for failure: lack of on-chain supply and demand adjustment mechanism.
For investment in the currency circle: Cycle > Trend > Market Making Funds and Concentration > Market Cap > Value > Narrative > Circulation Rate.
The market will automatically go right in the long run, but you have to survive the short run before you can see the long run. Prices will eventually return to value.
DNX will be the first blockchain + AI WEB3 project that is truly implemented
Today we will continue to talk about $DNX. I will share from the fundamental and technical aspects.
First, Figure 1 and Figure 2 continue to track the graphics card market share of DNX, which has reached a new high, reaching 19.22%. Many people do not understand the use of graphics card market share. Whoever owns a graphics card has mastered the discourse of computing power. Right, computing power is electronic oil. The foundation of the AI era is computing power. DNX will firmly grasp the computing power market.
The price of DNX has not kept up for the time being, but don’t worry too much. We have talked about the relationship between price and value, just like the relationship between a pet dog and its owner. Sometimes it runs in front of the owner, sometimes it runs behind the owner. But it will eventually come back. Come to the owner's side, this is called value return. The reason why many people can't make money is because they don't dare to buy when the price is low, they don't learn, they chase after the price when it rises, and they cut off when the price falls back, they pay too much attention to the price and not to the value. .