Let’s do a short review of the small level. The market quickly recovered after the small level falsely fell below the double-headed low yesterday. Today it broke through the short-term downward trend line (blue) and is currently blocked by the 27500 band. However, It did not show a relatively declining state, and the airdrop positions began to surge again. In view of this situation, there should be a high point to touch 27700 or 28100.

However, the U.S. stock market has gone out of the false breakthrough pattern that was previously worried. This is a bit contradictory. Yesterday's opening once stood above the previous high, but it failed to stand firm at the final closing, and it continued to dip lower tonight. Moreover, there has been a change in the market framework (LH, LL) at the small level, which is more worrying. If ES cannot stand back above 4185 by 4 o'clock in the morning, then the long orders in hand may have to avoid potential risks first. , once ES confirms a false breakthrough, the possibility of the pie going up alone will be greatly reduced. DXY has also returned to the previous high of 103.3, which is not conducive to risk assets. It seems that before the debt ceiling incident is completely implemented, the suppression of all parties in the market is still relatively even. At this time, watching the battle may be a good choice.

Simply looking at the market situation next weekend, Bob and Bernanke’s speeches on Friday night affected the market trend in the short term, forming a K-line with up and down pins, and then tried to break through the downward trend line (blue) for the first time during the weekend. The color line) was blocked after that. This position was superimposed with two suppressions. One was the OB area before the previous vertical decline, and the other was the false breakthrough formed by the apex of the upper and lower pins and then fell back. There was also a pullback test at the 1h level but it did not stand back. , so the weekend fell naturally without the influence of US stocks. This morning, when closing the daily line, it falsely fell below the low of the previous double-sided needle. This kind of consolidation market is indeed a bit boring, and there is no expectation ahead. The change in the market structure that will come out after the false fall below the previous low is still consolidating within the range formed by the two yellow lines in the picture, and there is no trend. However, judging from the weekend trading, the price has been going all the way down, but the open interest has been increasing all the way, and the CVD is also going down, so most people in the market still think that this position cannot be held and will go down. Yes, although I don't agree with it, since it hasn't come out as strong as expected, I choose to wait and see. When it breaks through 27200 and the pullback stabilizes above this price, I am considering stepping in to go long.

Let’s first review why it was not recommended to chase shorts or look for head and shoulders bottoms when it first fell to around 26,000. The first is definitely that the market does not support short chasing when the position is broken. Positions are increasing all the way down, but all the increases are new short positions. In this case, there is a high probability that the price will not fall smoothly. Second, I looked around a lot at that time, and the entire market was looking at the head and shoulders top, and it fell below the neckline. This is a position where many people who are graphic enthusiasts are trying to break the position. Third, back to graphics. The low of 26,500 is a long liquidity. This kind of liquidity means that the iconic low is often the position where the long stop loss is placed above, and it is also the position where the short market price is established. This iconic low is most of the time. It is a position where big funds like to build positions. In addition, in the three waves of abc that fell from 31,000, the one-to-one position of a and c was around 26,000. At that time, when the price dropped rapidly and then pulled up again, after closing the needle with a long lower shadow, it was most likely the bottom position.

After reviewing the market, the daily line has now made a false breakout and quickly closed at a noted low point mentioned earlier. This is most likely a sign of a short-term bottom. However, there is a more important resistance level above, which is also an important position to confirm a rebound or a new wave of rise. It is the VAL since the consolidation of 26000 and the previous low of 26920. If the range of 26920-27150 can be recovered strongly, there must be at least one Back to the counter draw of 29,000.

The long orders in hand will push the stop loss to around 26400. If the rebound trend is to continue, this position cannot be broken down again. If it falls below twice as much again, the rebound may end in vain.

My current forecast may be different from the overall market atmosphere. I'm not too bearish on this position.

The reasons for going long in btc are as follows. After the previous low was broken, it quickly recovered, and even after the retracement test, it did not break through. This proves that there must be some liquidity in this position. Another one is to look at the status of the daily K line at the market opening. This kind of chip peak with a large number of transactions at the bottom, once it does not close below the POC, will most likely be lifted upwards, which is the reaction force formed after the not-so-smart short sellers below chase the shorts and find that they can't fall and stop the loss. .

The same is true for sesame cakes. Currently, this position is only long. The three red, green and blue boxes in the picture represent potential pressure intervals.

复盘一下最近的几笔交易，我觉得还算是中规中矩 图一，绿色圈，开出第一次的空单。理由是来到前期的盘整区poc一带，这种未被测试过的poc一般都是比较重要的支撑阻力，盘整的时间越长，支撑阻力的作用越明显，但是这种作用在第一次比较有效，随着测试的次数越多，作用递减。另外看当时盘口（图二），在突破前高之后有不少新的市价追多的仓位，然后又重新跌回去前高之下，这种就是比较典型的假突破。所以在这个位置市价进去做了空单。结果印证也是成立的。

图三，在红圈的位置平空反手做多。这个多其实是有一部分的盘感在，且有对应的盘口支持，看图四当时持仓并没有随着市场下跌，持仓开始减少，反而一直在高位，且CVD一直往下走，证明这里有不少的空头在这个位置赌空，按照之前的判断，一旦形成这样的盘口状态，及时要跌也是很难顺畅往下的，怎么都会往上抬高之后再下跌，市场并不会让大部分的人挣钱，所以这也是我平空的一个主要原因，至于后续在红圈位置开多，是在图三的地方出现了小级别的三角突破，且回踩没跌回去三角之内开出来的多单（图五）。这一个多单止盈的，也是突破前高之后且也是突破下降趋势线之后，均回落至突破之前的位置，那多单离场也是一样的逻辑。另外盘口也证明了这一段的拉升就是下方不太聪明的空头追空止损形成的一个反向作用力，OI下降，CVD升高。（图六）。

然后就是另外一个多单的介入，当时恰好是非农的数据出来，非常的利空，数据表明就业市场十分强劲，这种消息出来之后给市场的解读是可能美联储之后还会做出来比较大鹰派行动或者其他不利于市场上涨的其他因素。但是盘面来看（图七），当价格打破前面的低点之后，又快速的收针起来，结合一下标普期货的盘面来看（图八），而且又不是正儿八经的美股交易时间，只是盘前交易，所以我认为可能是一次猎杀上方做多赌突破的多头的止损，获得足够多的流动性之后，再重新往上涨，所以在9点之后的第一根15分k线走完之后，便把多单开进去，止损就是下方针尖的位置，有人说那你这样的止损不会太大吗？其实我个人的操作手法是，我只要知道我的止损设置在哪里之后，我推断一下我假如这一单被止损了，我能接受亏掉我多少的本金，然后按照这个本金去开自己的仓位。然后结果也是显而易见，市场的资金还是用脚投票，在这么利空数据的情况下，还是往上拉升了，而不是随着利空消息出来之后顺利往下砸，当然市场并非千篇一律，之所以在利空消息还能往上涨且自己还敢开多单的原因其实是给予对盘面的分析，个人认为所有的消息，都会在每一根k线里面体现，既然消息这么利空那按道理来说，前面的低点被突破之后，应该是直接跌破或者反弹都过不了前面的低点，既然突破了低点之后又收针起来，那为什么不可以做多呢。最后就是这张多单的止盈，今天早上11点左右睡醒看到又跌回前面的高点之下（图九），且这个高点连续的试探了两次都未成功突破，所以选择了止盈，也没有再开单。本来预计这个多单是可以拿到30200附近（图十）也就是前期盘整区的poc以及日线级别的垂直供应柱的共振的压力位，但是还是稍微差那么一点点，没做到就算了。

以上就是最近几个小短线的复盘，等下有时间我推演一下后面的一个想法。如果对你有用欢迎点赞评论转发，谢谢