Let’s do a short review of the small level. The market quickly recovered after the small level falsely fell below the double-headed low yesterday. Today it broke through the short-term downward trend line (blue) and is currently blocked by the 27500 band. However, It did not show a relatively declining state, and the airdrop positions began to surge again. In view of this situation, there should be a high point to touch 27700 or 28100.

However, the U.S. stock market has gone out of the false breakthrough pattern that was previously worried. This is a bit contradictory. Yesterday's opening once stood above the previous high, but it failed to stand firm at the final closing, and it continued to dip lower tonight. Moreover, there has been a change in the market framework (LH, LL) at the small level, which is more worrying. If ES cannot stand back above 4185 by 4 o'clock in the morning, then the long orders in hand may have to avoid potential risks first. , once ES confirms a false breakthrough, the possibility of the pie going up alone will be greatly reduced. DXY has also returned to the previous high of 103.3, which is not conducive to risk assets. It seems that before the debt ceiling incident is completely implemented, the suppression of all parties in the market is still relatively even. At this time, watching the battle may be a good choice.

Simply looking at the market situation next weekend, Bob and Bernanke’s speeches on Friday night affected the market trend in the short term, forming a K-line with up and down pins, and then tried to break through the downward trend line (blue) for the first time during the weekend. The color line) was blocked after that. This position was superimposed with two suppressions. One was the OB area before the previous vertical decline, and the other was the false breakthrough formed by the apex of the upper and lower pins and then fell back. There was also a pullback test at the 1h level but it did not stand back. , so the weekend fell naturally without the influence of US stocks. This morning, when closing the daily line, it falsely fell below the low of the previous double-sided needle. This kind of consolidation market is indeed a bit boring, and there is no expectation ahead. The change in the market structure that will come out after the false fall below the previous low is still consolidating within the range formed by the two yellow lines in the picture, and there is no trend. However, judging from the weekend trading, the price has been going all the way down, but the open interest has been increasing all the way, and the CVD is also going down, so most people in the market still think that this position cannot be held and will go down. Yes, although I don't agree with it, since it hasn't come out as strong as expected, I choose to wait and see. When it breaks through 27200 and the pullback stabilizes above this price, I am considering stepping in to go long.

Let’s first review why it was not recommended to chase shorts or look for head and shoulders bottoms when it first fell to around 26,000. The first is definitely that the market does not support short chasing when the position is broken. Positions are increasing all the way down, but all the increases are new short positions. In this case, there is a high probability that the price will not fall smoothly. Second, I looked around a lot at that time, and the entire market was looking at the head and shoulders top, and it fell below the neckline. This is a position where many people who are graphic enthusiasts are trying to break the position. Third, back to graphics. The low of 26,500 is a long liquidity. This kind of liquidity means that the iconic low is often the position where the long stop loss is placed above, and it is also the position where the short market price is established. This iconic low is most of the time. It is a position where big funds like to build positions. In addition, in the three waves of abc that fell from 31,000, the one-to-one position of a and c was around 26,000. At that time, when the price dropped rapidly and then pulled up again, after closing the needle with a long lower shadow, it was most likely the bottom position.

After reviewing the market, the daily line has now made a false breakout and quickly closed at a noted low point mentioned earlier. This is most likely a sign of a short-term bottom. However, there is a more important resistance level above, which is also an important position to confirm a rebound or a new wave of rise. It is the VAL since the consolidation of 26000 and the previous low of 26920. If the range of 26920-27150 can be recovered strongly, there must be at least one Back to the counter draw of 29,000.

The long orders in hand will push the stop loss to around 26400. If the rebound trend is to continue, this position cannot be broken down again. If it falls below twice as much again, the rebound may end in vain.

My current forecast may be different from the overall market atmosphere. I'm not too bearish on this position.

The reasons for going long in btc are as follows. After the previous low was broken, it quickly recovered, and even after the retracement test, it did not break through. This proves that there must be some liquidity in this position. Another one is to look at the status of the daily K line at the market opening. This kind of chip peak with a large number of transactions at the bottom, once it does not close below the POC, will most likely be lifted upwards, which is the reaction force formed after the not-so-smart short sellers below chase the shorts and find that they can't fall and stop the loss. .

The same is true for sesame cakes. Currently, this position is only long. The three red, green and blue boxes in the picture represent potential pressure intervals.

After reviewing the recent transactions, I think they are quite satisfactory. Figure 1, the green circle, shows the first short order. The reason is that when it comes to the POC area of ​​​​the early consolidation area, this untested POC is generally a more important support and resistance. The longer the consolidation time, the more obvious the role of support and resistance, but this role is not obvious in the first comparison. Effective, as the number of tests increases, the effect decreases. In addition, looking at the market price at that time (Figure 2), after breaking through the previous high, there were many new market price chasing positions, and then falling back below the previous high. This is a typical false breakthrough. So at this position, the market price entered and a short order was made. The results confirm that it is also established.