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$BNB

Revealing the Trends of Large Funds: The Truth Behind the Net Outflow of BTC from Exchanges

The trading behavior of large funds is crucial in market analysis. Recent data shows that the net outflow of BTC from the three major exchanges, Binance, OKX, and Coinbase, has significantly increased during price surges:

OKX: In March 2024, when it surpassed $70,000, the average daily net outflow was 400 BTC, with a peak of 800 in May.

Binance: Net outflow of 1,800 BTC from March to April, with a peak of 4,000 in December, and a rebound to 1,300 in May.

Coinbase: Net outflow of 2,500 BTC from March to April, with a peak of 6,500 in December, and around 2,300 in May.

This seems to indicate that large funds are rapidly withdrawing from exchanges after continuous buying, which superficially appears to be a signal of long-term holding.

However, upon closer examination, some aspects seem unreasonable: Why is there a large outflow when prices are high, but a sharp decrease in outflows when prices are low? Is this a case of 'buying high'?

By observing the trading data of over-the-counter (OTC) dealers, it has been found that a significant amount of BTC is being transferred from exchanges to OTC, suggesting that large funds may be cashing out through OTC at high prices to avoid impacting prices by selling directly on exchanges.

Perhaps the main players are taking advantage of the market rally to sell at high prices.

The current market shows signs of 'pumping and dumping', and the strength of the market may depend on the rhythm of selling. Of course, this is just the current situation; if new positive trends emerge later, the situation may change. It's important to note that this doesn't mean to short or liquidate; if you understand this situation, you can respond promptly if the trend shifts!

How should I solve this? Waiting online!

It feels like there is a buying opportunity near 0.022 for $PEOPLE , this position is the starting point.

$AAVE , as one of the leaders in DeFi, provides a seamless experience. As a large-cap token, it has carved out its own stable space, and it is one of the top picks I mentioned in April. It is now close to doubling.

Why recommend it? Firstly, its market cap stands here, and it won't behave like garbage tokens, which have no normal fluctuations, thereby significantly reducing risks. Moreover, this token's primary framework is lending finance, and the interest rates will change dynamically based on supply and demand, ensuring the market is more flexible and transparent. Aave's influence in the lending field can indeed be called a leader.

Additionally, $TAO is also close to doubling, which makes it even more interesting. As a decentralized finance rising star, it plays its due value as an innovative digital currency, not only providing stablecoin value support but also bringing efficient trading to users.

With the popularity of decentralized finance, the reduction of transaction fees, high efficiency, and decentralized characteristics of Tao are destined to make it an ideal choice for DeFi investment.

Isn't it so difficult to go up and down? When it falls, you think about running away quickly, and when it rises, you think about chasing it quickly!

But it is just such a volatile market, and there were expectations in front of the money!

Recently, there has been support around 2330. Yesterday, I mentioned that although it broke through, it only dipped to 2323 before quickly rebounding. Even if it holds, some brothers said if they don't run away, it will be too late, and there will be lower levels.

I don't want to force any ideology; I just need to express what I believe is right and emphasize it a few times. Over time, I fear I might forget that I was previously emphasizing buying the dip at 16000 and 25000!

Of course, there were times I was wrong; past glory is not eternal glory. There were times I was overly confident! I was reluctant to break my own system, but the cycle is something that is very hard to get wrong!

Now it seems we are still in a volatile market. If it can't stay above the 2850 position, it will be hard to see a new trend. Just pay attention to the trend line support; as long as you are within the trend, everything will be okay. $ETH

Does anyone still remember that 519 from four years ago? At that time, I had just entered the crypto space for less than a year. By the end of 2020, I was fortunate enough to buy 8 units of 37372389646, which later rose to over 40. I also added to my position countless times in between.

Later, right before 519, I opened a long position in 43 coin base, and as you can imagine, I lost everything including my principal and profits.

Fortunately, there were the metaverse and gemefi, which allowed me to turn things around. The favor of Lady Luck led me to buy 4 units of crab $AXS , and later I sold in batches at over 100. Although it eventually rose to 160, I do not regret it.

Subsequently, I had scattered opportunities that allowed me to thrive in the gaming sector. It seems like all of this happened yesterday. Looking back, it’s quite difficult for the new entrants after 2023; the big opportunities are gone.

At that time, although the market was very volatile and risky, it simultaneously nurtured endless big opportunities. Many junk coins could multiply several times by the next morning after you bought them before bed.

In any case, it was quite exhilarating. Perhaps the market bubble back then was too inflated, leading to the current situation where all the new entrants are paying for the market's overextension.

Will there still be opportunities after the scams? My answer is definitely yes. A comprehensive rise is unlikely to occur, but valuable projects will still see more than tenfold increases.

The era of random buying is over; now it's all about discernment.

The situation with U.S. Treasuries really feels like the "last straw" has fallen.

Let's start with some hard facts: Moody's downgraded the U.S. sovereign rating from Aaa to Aa1 on May 16. Don't underestimate this downgrade—since 1917, U.S. Treasuries have rarely dropped from the AAA rating and have always been considered the "safest in the market." The last incident was with Standard & Poor's in 2011, and now the three major agencies have finally come together to declare: U.S. Treasuries are no longer a risk-free asset.

But don’t expect an explosion tomorrow. Short-term prices will probably remain similar to now, as traders focus on sentiment and liquidity; those who truly care about the rating are the "long money"—central banks, sovereign funds, and pension funds. These big players used to treat U.S. Treasuries as a cash substitute, but now they need to recalculate: interest expenses are soaring, deficits are skyrocketing, nominal debt is at $36 trillion... the risk premium will definitely need to be repriced.

This will lead to several slow-motion changes:

In the Middle East and Southeast Asia, the pace of establishing local currency settlements and regional clearing systems will only accelerate.

Sovereign wealth funds' asset allocation will add a phrase: "Increase the weight of non-U.S. dollar assets like gold and Bitcoin."

Hedging strategies will also change—duration will shorten, with more money market funds and short-term bonds to replace the original "all-in on government bonds."

So don’t be fooled by the superficial "the market hasn’t dropped"—the structure is already turning. Interest rates may remain similar to before, but the consensus that "U.S. Treasuries = risk-free" is loosening, and it’s hard to say who will be the new anchor—gold, BTC, or even a basket of regional bonds could all step into the spotlight.

Thus, leave a reminder for yourself and give a heads-up to friends who are paying attention to global allocation: the anchor is loose, don’t think you're still securely tied in place.

This whale, shorting 95,693,431,397,990 USD, I wonder if it’s courage born of skill? Or if there is some news, opening a short position at 2430 and liquidating at 2435, a liquidation price of two points!

Although it is currently in a profitable state, I can’t figure out the inner thoughts at the time of opening the position.

What’s even more impressive is that this guy continues to add to his position while in profit, now pushing the previous liquidation price to 2430, but this type of position, my brother, definitely don’t follow, this guy is probably the insider from a while back. Although he opened a significant position, he also exits quickly when in profit.

If you’re not careful, you could end up buried along with him.

Recently, the Alpha airdrop has been quite intense, and the NPXC round was particularly outrageous: 196 points to earn, with a single order worth about 500U. One of my fans easily opened an account for each of their parents, and the three of them directly pocketed 1,500U.

Participating now isn't difficult either; just complete these three tasks:

Open the Binance Web3 wallet on your phone, and it's done with a couple of taps.

You need to pass KYC; otherwise, the points are wasted.

Gather enough points, 196 points; if you haven't reached that, go earn (I'll explain how to earn below).

I also did some research and have a few tips to share:

🔹 Don't use chains with expensive gas fees; it's too much hassle.

ETH is really burning money unless you have a lot of it.

Currently, SOL and Sonic are the most commonly used, saving time and money.

🔹 Choose major coins to earn points; don't randomly try obscure coins.

High slippage and low trading volume can lead to losses.

Opt for active mainstream coins, keeping losses to around 1-2U; the difference can be significant if you do it more.

🔹 Don't chase highs; don't get greedy for excitement.

When the candlestick chart spikes, don't jump in; we aren't contract traders.

Earning points is like going to work; aim for stability and avoid mishaps,

Don't make a risky move and then see a 3% drop, leading to heavy losses.

In short—don't think about getting rich through volatility; the goal is to earn points. If you really want to rush, it's still not too late, but it's definitely getting more competitive. I've organized the forms I need; if you want to reconcile or seek advice, just message me privately. #ALPHA🔥 #美国加征关税

Only the Federal Reserve knows why it resists pressure and does not release information about interest rate cuts, rather than analysts who do not trade and spend all day analyzing and guessing the reasons!

A new week has begun, and this new week is an eye-opener, with ups and downs. Returning to the market, Ethereum has pierced through 2330 but only briefly before rebounding.

Then, as mentioned before, Bitcoin's support level was 98400. Looking at it this way, this support seems as good as not sharing at all; it’s quite far, but who can blame the big player for being so tough?

It's hard to set a price right now because only when the US stock market opens can the true prices be reflected. The market remains highly alert to fiscal imbalances and debt risks, so the impact of Moody's downgrade is relatively minor for March and April.

If the downgrade leads to a sell-off of US debt that affects risk markets, then this may not be a new opportunity for risk markets.

Trying to find various reasons to 'clarify ownership' afterwards... is a waste of time, as it serves no purpose and does not provide any valuable lessons for future investments.

This year's bull market may be postponed until autumn, the Federal Reserve's attitude has taken a major turn: Powell clearly stated 'no rate cut in June', interest rate market expectations have returned to zero, and there may only be a 55 basis point rate cut for the whole year. Trump's tariffs + dual credit rating blow: a 145% tariff increase on China has been implemented, Moody's has downgraded the U.S. sovereign rating to Aa1, and the 2011 U.S. bond crisis warning has reappeared with the market at its high 'resurrection': the S&P 500 Buffett indicator has reached 190%, exceeding historical peaks, with gold, U.S. stocks, and other risk assets collectively 'fluctuating'.

Rich Dad Poor Dad author Robert predicts that Bitcoin could reach $250,000 this year. It seems like this guy hasn't been accurate many times; he must be right at least once after being wrong so often 😂$BTC

The fastest rebound each time is still memes. The rebound speed of Squirrel $PNUT , in fact, this token belongs to a unique narrative, and after a long period of wash trading, the position has lightened. Logically, it should have a wave of explosion.

$SYRUP is rising every day, ignoring the fluctuations of the market. Now you understand why I said I wouldn’t answer you, but I will tell you from other places why I bought it, and then explain the logic to give you your own answer in your mind.

One word: refreshing, two words: really refreshing.

In this cycle, you have to admit that it's easy for KOLs to recommend copycats, so is it the KOL's fault?

No, it’s the main players' fault. Why do I say that? There are two reasons:
1. First, many main players experienced the bear market at the beginning of this bull market, with no income and a team to support. After a period of initial rise in copycats, the main players sold off!

2. Long-term rises lead to drops; retail investors have slowly evolved from the diamond hands of 2021 to now, running away when there is no proper rise, creating a race between retail investors and main players.

Especially, some trash project teams are even worse. Knowing that their tokens are trash and no one cares, they might sell them to some KOLs at a discount, after all, their costs are negligible, so selling is a profit.

This sale is not just a superficial transaction; rather, KOLs call retail investors to enter, while the main players sell off, and then they split the commissions.

In the past, the main players watched retail investors enter, and when funds came in, they quickly pushed the prices higher. Now, the main players see retail investors entering and hurriedly sell off their holdings, fearing that they won't be able to sell later when there are no counterparties.

So, do you think there will still be a season for copycats? Yes, there will be small seasons for copycats and those relatively stable tokens. They also need to support their teams and make money, just like Sui, and many such projects will appear in the future. Looking forward to valuable small seasons for copycats, and staying away from trash projects that lead to significant losses.