币须懂技术
@Square-Creator-469c11472
创作者@数字货币@宏观分析@技术交流
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The local direction is coming, let’s take sides!
The price has stayed at a short-term high for more than 9 days. From the perspective of the general trend, we can carefully review [What is an offensive strategy], which uses segmented logic to outline the last barrier to optimistic expectations of the future price, layout reference, etc., which is to participate in future expectations. A must-read for the swing rally.
Today we continue to look at the short-term, and while keeping in line with the general trend, we focus on the reference point of time:
After zooming in on the details of the conclusion of the large cycle (daily level), you can see that the [right shoulder area] of the [long-term low head and shoulders bottom momentum building stage] presents an [expansion momentum] shape.
Today we continue to look at the short-term, and while keeping in line with the general trend, we focus on the reference point of time:
After zooming in on the details of the conclusion of the large cycle (daily level), you can see that the [right shoulder area] of the [long-term low head and shoulders bottom momentum building stage] presents an [expansion momentum] shape.
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What is an offensive strategy?
The short-term trend, as mentioned in the evening review the day before yesterday, is running within the strategic (preliminary) accumulation range of 26384 to 28888.
According to strategic expectations, the momentum here will be maintained for a period of time, and it will complete an important round of momentum before optimistic expectations take off.
This takes time. This area is what we talked about in the live broadcast and recent evening comments [high-level stagflation building period]. Today is the seventh day of building momentum in this area, so wait patiently.
Today we continue to look at the long-term [optimistic expectations]. Notes:
In recent live broadcasts and late reviews, the strategy is outputting a possible [optimistic expectation] about the Mavericks, and listing 5 important bottom signals as arguments. For details, you can go to the live broadcast review.
According to strategic expectations, the momentum here will be maintained for a period of time, and it will complete an important round of momentum before optimistic expectations take off.
This takes time. This area is what we talked about in the live broadcast and recent evening comments [high-level stagflation building period]. Today is the seventh day of building momentum in this area, so wait patiently.
Today we continue to look at the long-term [optimistic expectations]. Notes:
In recent live broadcasts and late reviews, the strategy is outputting a possible [optimistic expectation] about the Mavericks, and listing 5 important bottom signals as arguments. For details, you can go to the live broadcast review.
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There will be rapid market trends in the short term, pay attention to strategic operations!
After the daytime price broke through the balance line yesterday, it gained momentum in an ultra-narrow range, which is currently an invalid breakthrough.
For the long-term general trend, please refer to the review of the night before yesterday [The speed of the car is fast, chase the rise & refer to the opportunity to step back on the car! ], which contains arguments and arguments about optimistic expectations, based on technical theory. The live broadcast will also explain in detail later, what is the chance of winning for the big opportunity in early 2023.
There are no structural or major changes in the short term, as shown in the accompanying picture:
The most important short-term [high stagflation equilibrium line] broke yesterday, but it did not go down as expected. Instead, a sideways breakout is chosen, so the balance reference line needs to be corrected.
For the long-term general trend, please refer to the review of the night before yesterday [The speed of the car is fast, chase the rise & refer to the opportunity to step back on the car! ], which contains arguments and arguments about optimistic expectations, based on technical theory. The live broadcast will also explain in detail later, what is the chance of winning for the big opportunity in early 2023.
There are no structural or major changes in the short term, as shown in the accompanying picture:
The most important short-term [high stagflation equilibrium line] broke yesterday, but it did not go down as expected. Instead, a sideways breakout is chosen, so the balance reference line needs to be corrected.
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Recently, the risk control of long chips has been revised to the 26704 line. Please pay attention to the recent late review content for details.
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The car is speeding fast, take a look at the opportunities to chase the rise & fall back!
Intraday prices continue to hit new highs, looking at long-term trend considerations and opportunities:
Regarding the causes, expectations, plans, and operations related to the recent breakthrough trend, review the recent late review and have a more comprehensive statement from various perspectives and cycles. Please read it yourself.
From a long-term perspective, let’s talk about the key bottom movements mentioned in yesterday’s evening commentary in detail:
1. Bottom Gathering: At the end of the bull market, especially the trend after the previous low of 15,000, echoes the previous slow decline trend, forming a long-term [bottom Gathering Area].
2. Bottom structure: At present, it is a relatively standard [head and shoulders bottom] momentum building structure. It consists of the left shoulder, the previous low of 15,000, and the [half-cut right shoulder] that was recently described as imperfect.
Regarding the causes, expectations, plans, and operations related to the recent breakthrough trend, review the recent late review and have a more comprehensive statement from various perspectives and cycles. Please read it yourself.
From a long-term perspective, let’s talk about the key bottom movements mentioned in yesterday’s evening commentary in detail:
1. Bottom Gathering: At the end of the bull market, especially the trend after the previous low of 15,000, echoes the previous slow decline trend, forming a long-term [bottom Gathering Area].
2. Bottom structure: At present, it is a relatively standard [head and shoulders bottom] momentum building structure. It consists of the left shoulder, the previous low of 15,000, and the [half-cut right shoulder] that was recently described as imperfect.
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Things are brewing at the bottom, and nothing is left out from doing what needs to be done!
The recent offensive rally has made the previously reserved high-level momentum structure become more unrestrained, and its shyness has become ticking, haha. If the anthropomorphic expression is not concrete enough, then we still look at the structural trend:
The left side is the short-term trend (twelve-hour perspective), and the right side is the long-term trend (weekly perspective).
It took more than 260 trading days to build a [head and shoulders bottom pattern] at a low level. This is a long process, so from a technical perspective, a structural breakthrough is enough to brew a swing bull market.
Of course, with the current state of [initial breakthrough], there is still a lot of controversy about the future trend here. The dispute is concentrated as follows:
The left side is the short-term trend (twelve-hour perspective), and the right side is the long-term trend (weekly perspective).
It took more than 260 trading days to build a [head and shoulders bottom pattern] at a low level. This is a long process, so from a technical perspective, a structural breakthrough is enough to brew a swing bull market.
Of course, with the current state of [initial breakthrough], there is still a lot of controversy about the future trend here. The dispute is concentrated as follows:
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The only way to a bull market, this conclusion supports mindless operations!
The short-term trend in the past two days has been extremely exciting. If your emotions are aroused, you are likely to be led by the nose.
In view of the violent V-shaped reversal in the past two days, we peel off all external emotional, macro, and uncertain factors to see what guidance we have for the future:
Comments from yesterday evening [The battle against the neckline of the bull market is right in front of us! ] is a practical exercise for confirming bull market signals.
There are two important conclusions:
First, the bull market neckline is right there, which is the only way for the bull market to pass. At first glance, some people think it is nonsense and a joke. Of course, no matter where the bull market goes in the future, it must pass through this point. Just like you can't skip any number to count to ten.
In view of the violent V-shaped reversal in the past two days, we peel off all external emotional, macro, and uncertain factors to see what guidance we have for the future:
Comments from yesterday evening [The battle against the neckline of the bull market is right in front of us! ] is a practical exercise for confirming bull market signals.
There are two important conclusions:
First, the bull market neckline is right there, which is the only way for the bull market to pass. At first glance, some people think it is nonsense and a joke. Of course, no matter where the bull market goes in the future, it must pass through this point. Just like you can't skip any number to count to ten.
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The battle to capture the bull market neckline is right before our eyes!
In the past two days, tizi has had problems and the late review has not been updated. Please leave a message if you need any corrections.
The V-shaped reversal last night was indeed unexpected. If you listen to someone and have already foreseen it, then go up and slap him on the ear, and there is a high probability that you will hit a magic stick.
A V-shaped reversal is an extreme [reversal structure] that can only be encountered but cannot be sought. Given that the current price is close to the key position of the annual level, it is of no practical significance to discuss the reasons for the formation, macro forces, etc. at this time. Let’s put all this aside. Let’s go straight to the topic of [How to operate]:
So far, the [Bear Market Main Trend Line] has completed two important technical actions: [Breakthrough] and [Retracement]. With this V-shaped reversal, the price has approached the [Bull Market Neckline].
The V-shaped reversal last night was indeed unexpected. If you listen to someone and have already foreseen it, then go up and slap him on the ear, and there is a high probability that you will hit a magic stick.
A V-shaped reversal is an extreme [reversal structure] that can only be encountered but cannot be sought. Given that the current price is close to the key position of the annual level, it is of no practical significance to discuss the reasons for the formation, macro forces, etc. at this time. Let’s put all this aside. Let’s go straight to the topic of [How to operate]:
So far, the [Bear Market Main Trend Line] has completed two important technical actions: [Breakthrough] and [Retracement]. With this V-shaped reversal, the price has approached the [Bull Market Neckline].
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Trending
After 1001 days, the [bull market neckline] reappears.
The fog heightens the gloomy mood. The downward movement created by this macro crisis has made ordinary investors panic. Some people will take advantage of this to make you hand over your chips and trick you into getting out of the car.
Causes of negative emotions:
Disturbed: unclear thinking
Fear: Too many assumptions
As mentioned in yesterday's evening review, the decline has basically been completed, and the subsequent trend will be in the form of shocks to repair the "space" squeezed by the rapid decline. This space is currently defined as 19218-21553. Let’s watch the performance and talk about it tomorrow when we have time.
Today we look at the long term and officially open the pattern:
Causes of negative emotions:
Disturbed: unclear thinking
Fear: Too many assumptions
As mentioned in yesterday's evening review, the decline has basically been completed, and the subsequent trend will be in the form of shocks to repair the "space" squeezed by the rapid decline. This space is currently defined as 19218-21553. Let’s watch the performance and talk about it tomorrow when we have time.
Today we look at the long term and officially open the pattern:
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The “1” era is back, and Silicon Valley Bank is making a good start this time!
This is the momentum that the big structure should have when it is broken. The price during the day continued its downward trend, and so far has completed the return to the "1" era.
This time it was a wedding dress made by Silicon Valley Bank for its strategy. It was good, so I thanked the Air Force.
The main reference for this round of position-breaking actions is the [high-level momentum structure overall balance reference line]. This line has been drawn since mid-February. After more than half a month, it has finally played its greatest role.
At the critical moment of the market, talking too much will make things confusing. Focus on the market. I will briefly emphasize a few points and discuss more questions slowly:
First, the recent strategy can be traced back to the evening comment on February 27th [The outlook and layout of the (expected) collapse market! 】, and then the causes, points, and plans for the "empty script" were described in detail.
This time it was a wedding dress made by Silicon Valley Bank for its strategy. It was good, so I thanked the Air Force.
The main reference for this round of position-breaking actions is the [high-level momentum structure overall balance reference line]. This line has been drawn since mid-February. After more than half a month, it has finally played its greatest role.
At the critical moment of the market, talking too much will make things confusing. Focus on the market. I will briefly emphasize a few points and discuss more questions slowly:
First, the recent strategy can be traced back to the evening comment on February 27th [The outlook and layout of the (expected) collapse market! 】, and then the causes, points, and plans for the "empty script" were described in detail.
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It broke but didn’t fall. The pullback demand is still a false line. Let’s see!
On the deserted plateau, in a long-distance bus, Dabi looked sad: "Boy, I've been holding this in for more than 50 hours. I really can't hold it in anymore. Please help me see if I'm exposed." A little bit...
The aunt looked disgusted: "Go, go, boss, stop making trouble, you've already rubbed your pants... I'm going to die too."
This is when Shib from the previous game turned around and asked, "Brothers, what are you talking about?"
Ha ha
Let’s get down to business. It has become an established fact that the price broke yesterday, but it is usually fine. Whenever there is a key structural change, I am worried about the occurrence of scams.
The aunt looked disgusted: "Go, go, boss, stop making trouble, you've already rubbed your pants... I'm going to die too."
This is when Shib from the previous game turned around and asked, "Brothers, what are you talking about?"
Ha ha
Let’s get down to business. It has become an established fact that the price broke yesterday, but it is usually fine. Whenever there is a key structural change, I am worried about the occurrence of scams.
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The high-level structure has confirmed the [break] signal, reference for downward space!
#BTC
After five days of accumulating momentum in an ultra-narrow range, the pie is gaining momentum at a high level and ushering in a qualitative change in its structure:
As early as mid-February, after we drew the [High Structure Overall Balance Line], the strategy predicted that if the position breaks here, the price will face a greater opportunity to be bearish.
However, the price rebounded quickly here and reached a new high that is gaining momentum in this round of highs.
After 22 trading days, the price broke through the [high structure overall balance line] earlier today. At present, the overall high level is gaining momentum, showing an "M" head, which is a bearish top pattern.
To sum up, the recent price and strategy revolve around the bearish layout. Please see the operation section below for details.
After five days of accumulating momentum in an ultra-narrow range, the pie is gaining momentum at a high level and ushering in a qualitative change in its structure:
As early as mid-February, after we drew the [High Structure Overall Balance Line], the strategy predicted that if the position breaks here, the price will face a greater opportunity to be bearish.
However, the price rebounded quickly here and reached a new high that is gaining momentum in this round of highs.
After 22 trading days, the price broke through the [high structure overall balance line] earlier today. At present, the overall high level is gaining momentum, showing an "M" head, which is a bearish top pattern.
To sum up, the recent price and strategy revolve around the bearish layout. Please see the operation section below for details.
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The pattern is opening up - the various benefits of Pie returning to the "1" era!
Undoubtedly, under the motionless calm, there is a critical undercurrent.
For the handling of the current situation, please review recent comments, especially
3.3 Evening review: The neutral script triggers the plot, and the air force is even decisive [boundary]
Today we discuss the possibility and significance of the “1” era:
The pattern is open, let’s look at the ultra-long cycle first
The authority of the [Main Trend Line] lies in being true to its word and never playing second-guessing. The intersection of the two lines in the picture represents the bull-bear cycle in three years.
In October 2020, the [Bull Market Main Uptrend Line] was drawn, and the price broke in December 2021. An old era ended. No matter how many wonderful stories and conjectures there were before, they gradually faded away under the sudden drop in temperature.
For the handling of the current situation, please review recent comments, especially
3.3 Evening review: The neutral script triggers the plot, and the air force is even decisive [boundary]
Today we discuss the possibility and significance of the “1” era:
The pattern is open, let’s look at the ultra-long cycle first
The authority of the [Main Trend Line] lies in being true to its word and never playing second-guessing. The intersection of the two lines in the picture represents the bull-bear cycle in three years.
In October 2020, the [Bull Market Main Uptrend Line] was drawn, and the price broke in December 2021. An old era ended. No matter how many wonderful stories and conjectures there were before, they gradually faded away under the sudden drop in temperature.
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The critical posture has a higher meaning!
Today is the 49th day after the rally at the beginning of the year, and the overall price is building momentum at a high level. The market is bullish and its life hangs by a thread.
The evolution of the structure to date is expressed in the strategic system as [Air Force Playbook]
For new students who don’t understand it yet, it is recommended to review:
2.28 evening review: [The outlook and layout of the (expected) collapse market! 】
2.29 Evening Comment: [The long-short balance will tilt significantly at the 22860 line! 】
3.1 Evening review: The causes, signals, and plans of [Air Force Script].
3.3 Evening review: The neutral script triggers the plot, and the air force is even decisive [boundary]
It contains complete strategic information such as the technical causes of this structural downward movement, trigger signals, operation plans, etc. It is not about finding some macro events after the decline, and macro figures taking the blame, which is 78 eggs.
The evolution of the structure to date is expressed in the strategic system as [Air Force Playbook]
For new students who don’t understand it yet, it is recommended to review:
2.28 evening review: [The outlook and layout of the (expected) collapse market! 】
2.29 Evening Comment: [The long-short balance will tilt significantly at the 22860 line! 】
3.1 Evening review: The causes, signals, and plans of [Air Force Script].
3.3 Evening review: The neutral script triggers the plot, and the air force is even decisive [boundary]
It contains complete strategic information such as the technical causes of this structural downward movement, trigger signals, operation plans, etc. It is not about finding some macro events after the decline, and macro figures taking the blame, which is 78 eggs.
See original
The air-biased scenario triggers the plot, the air force is even decisive [Border]
If you have carefully read the evening reviews of the past two days, you should not be surprised by the rapid correction during the day. We even know its causes and plans, and can make profits with the help of signals.
As the largest single-day decline in the past 50 trading days, the impact from a structural perspective is the most important. The main reason is
It puts the general trend at an important turning point [border]
The above-mentioned 50-day high-level momentum structure consists of two tops. The first one is the [double-short superposition state] that we have operated before, and the second one is the [high-level accumulation range (23300-25205)] that we have been tracking for a long time recently and had two structural breaks that made it difficult to recover.
As the largest single-day decline in the past 50 trading days, the impact from a structural perspective is the most important. The main reason is
It puts the general trend at an important turning point [border]
The above-mentioned 50-day high-level momentum structure consists of two tops. The first one is the [double-short superposition state] that we have operated before, and the second one is the [high-level accumulation range (23300-25205)] that we have been tracking for a long time recently and had two structural breaks that made it difficult to recover.
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[Air Force Script] Causes, signals, and plans.
According to the observation of the currency must strategy system, today's rebound is another desperate counterattack. The main reason is that it is facing the test of a bearish turn based on the [high momentum structure] that has been maintained for nearly 50 days.
Being prepared for danger in times of peace is a manifestation of risk awareness, and it is also the best character of a trader.
This is also the main reason for the continuous simulation of the [Air Force Script] in the past two days, the signals, and the plan. As long as you are not dead long, then the above [script] will be a potentially huge opportunity.
So, if necessary, please review again:
2.28 evening review: [The outlook and layout of the (expected) collapse market! 】
Being prepared for danger in times of peace is a manifestation of risk awareness, and it is also the best character of a trader.
This is also the main reason for the continuous simulation of the [Air Force Script] in the past two days, the signals, and the plan. As long as you are not dead long, then the above [script] will be a potentially huge opportunity.
So, if necessary, please review again:
2.28 evening review: [The outlook and layout of the (expected) collapse market! 】
See original
The bull-bear balance will tilt significantly at the 22860 line!
The secondary market all the way east, every time point, is full of the old forces' unwillingness and resistance. Look at the bulls who have structurally broken their position twice, do they look like a defeated army that is still fighting after being trapped?
Haha, many people ask whether the general trend has turned bearish. In fact, the market is currently struggling in the (23300-25205) range, but it is not hopeless.
If it can be maintained within the range, there is still hope
If it breaks the position range, there is a high probability that Barbie Q will be required.
For details on the bearish expectations and bearish layout signals, please see yesterday’s evening review [The outlook and layout of the (expected) collapse market! 】, the exclusive Air Force script broke the news, and the explanation was very detailed. If you fail to catch the opportunity when it comes later, you will definitely regret it.
Haha, many people ask whether the general trend has turned bearish. In fact, the market is currently struggling in the (23300-25205) range, but it is not hopeless.
If it can be maintained within the range, there is still hope
If it breaks the position range, there is a high probability that Barbie Q will be required.
For details on the bearish expectations and bearish layout signals, please see yesterday’s evening review [The outlook and layout of the (expected) collapse market! 】, the exclusive Air Force script broke the news, and the explanation was very detailed. If you fail to catch the opportunity when it comes later, you will definitely regret it.
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Outlook and layout for the (expected) market collapse!
The high level gained momentum after the band rally at the beginning of the year has been maintained for more than 44 trading days. During this period, the institutions have changed several times, and the weight of long and short expectations has also changed accordingly.
The recent local trend and its significance to the entire high level are detailed in the figure below:
The local high level is gaining momentum. Since the middle of this month, it has experienced two important structural breaks:
[Position Break 1]: The initial [Upward Triangle Gathering] broke the position, disappointing the expectation of a short-term breakthrough and opening up a new room for growth.
[Break 2]: Since the middle of this month, it has been building momentum at a defined high level (23300-25205), because the bottom support has broken.
The recent local trend and its significance to the entire high level are detailed in the figure below:
The local high level is gaining momentum. Since the middle of this month, it has experienced two important structural breaks:
[Position Break 1]: The initial [Upward Triangle Gathering] broke the position, disappointing the expectation of a short-term breakthrough and opening up a new room for growth.
[Break 2]: Since the middle of this month, it has been building momentum at a defined high level (23300-25205), because the bottom support has broken.
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A rebound is imminent, but it’s hard to stop!
The U.S. index rebounded strongly this week, causing the market to weaken partially and causing the short-term structure to break. Let’s look at the details and adjustments to the operational strategy:
Due to the expectation that the U.S. index will firmly rise during the week, the good cards in this round of "high range preparation" were completely played out. The [Upper Triangle] first appeared in the range was a bullish pattern, and after three exhaustions, it entered a neutral buildup. In last night's downward movement, the bottom edge of the range supported the 23,000 line, causing the entire high buildup structure to undergo two key structural breaks. .
This will lead to the conclusion that the previous breakthrough expectations and the 28097 first-line target are temporarily shelved.
Due to the expectation that the U.S. index will firmly rise during the week, the good cards in this round of "high range preparation" were completely played out. The [Upper Triangle] first appeared in the range was a bullish pattern, and after three exhaustions, it entered a neutral buildup. In last night's downward movement, the bottom edge of the range supported the 23,000 line, causing the entire high buildup structure to undergo two key structural breaks. .
This will lead to the conclusion that the previous breakthrough expectations and the 28097 first-line target are temporarily shelved.
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On the seventh day of high-level consolidation, range-based strategies are stable!
As the evening review concluded on February 17: short-term prices will enter a period of consolidation and momentum after yesterday's rally. The current tentative potential accumulation area is within the range of 23300 to 25205. As of today, the price has maintained its momentum at a high level for nearly a week.
During this period, the evolution of the price pattern experienced an important transformation process, that is, from the previously bullish [Upward Triangle Gathering Power] to a neutral [Range Gathering Potential], as shown in the figure:
General trend analysis with pictures
After three unsuccessful attacks on the 20205 resistance line, [three failures] caused the price to [break] in the short term. For now, forget the previous expression of the upper triangle and just look at the range.
During this period, the evolution of the price pattern experienced an important transformation process, that is, from the previously bullish [Upward Triangle Gathering Power] to a neutral [Range Gathering Potential], as shown in the figure:
General trend analysis with pictures
After three unsuccessful attacks on the 20205 resistance line, [three failures] caused the price to [break] in the short term. For now, forget the previous expression of the upper triangle and just look at the range.