U.S. CPI estimates for February: 1) The current median value in the Bloomberg survey is that the total CPI is 0.4% month-on-month and the core CPI is 0.4% month-on-month. I estimate that the total CPI is 0.39% month-on-month and the core CPI is 0.35% month-on-month, which is consistent with market expectations. ratio, our estimate is very neutral; 2) The main upside risk is second-hand car prices. The Manheim second-hand car price index and the Black Book second-hand car price index that we are concerned about have both increased recently.

(The former leads CPI second-hand car prices by about 2 months, the latter leads by about 1 month, and the latter has a higher correlation coefficient with CPI second-hand car prices); 3) What determines the recent trend of CPI is not car prices, but energy prices and Rent and energy prices are easy to predict and have high certainty; for rent: we expect rents to gradually slow down month-on-month. In January, rent of shelter was 0.8% month-on-month, and we expect rents to drop to 0.7% month-on-month in February.

In the past two days, Alameda is suing Grayscale for refusing to redeem the product. If Grayscale loses the lawsuit and allows redemption, the discount on these trust shares sold at half price can be restored. In addition, today, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the DC Circuit rejected the SEC's rejection of GBTC After switching to spot ETFs, Grayscale and SEC lawyers conducted oral arguments, and the positions of the three presiding judges were on Grayscale's side. It's like this every round, with new money picking up the old corpses.

You can tell what position you are sitting in by what you say. I look at others as a sober person, and others look at me the same way. Is it right to wait? After watching yesterday’s hearing for a long time, the judgment was exactly the same as before, 5-5.25%, or at most (unlikely) 5.5%. The 2-year U.S. Treasury bond has basically not moved much. The chips at the bottom must not be moved.

link.medium.com/S6TRI719Nxb

LD’s first big report this year is Makerdao, please support me.

This round of decline for Nasdaq lasted for three days, starting from Thursday, February 16, to Tuesday, February 22 (market closed on Monday). The drop on Thursday, the 16th: The opening was due to PPI exceeding expectations, so it opened much lower. However, by two or three o'clock in the morning, almost all of it was recovered during the session, and it fell again at the end of the day around three o'clock in the morning. The fall in late trading was due to the hawkish statements by Mester and Bullard, who talked about the 50bp discussion.

On Friday the 17th, Nasdaq fell by 0.58%. As I wrote before, because it raised interest rates by 50bp in March after the decline, this is no longer possible. On Tuesday, the 21st, the Nasdaq fell 2.5%, mainly because the PMI exceeded expectations, and both the manufacturing and service industries rebounded beyond expectations, reinforcing everyone's concerns about the hawkishness of the Federal Reserve.

PCE is ahead of expectations, tightening expectations have increased

U.S. bond interest rates actually shot up and fell back, and long-term interest rates are now falling... Market stimulus will not be until the FOMC meeting on March 20th.

Makerdao or Jump obviously has some thoughts on the price of mkr. The Spark Protocol was just announced on the 10th, which means that Maker wants to build its own DeFi ecosystem. In addition, Maker will also get involved in the LSD sector and launch EtherDAI. Multiple oracles were also used to strengthen risk control. It is necessary to make up for the shortfall before pulling the market. This step is too big. The official has turned oasis, a third-party service provider, into the default service.

Spark has a very significant impact on makerdao's fundamentals, and the original recommendation also mentioned the combination with Element Finance and Sense Finance, which provide high fixed interest rates and are also restaking tools. Users can carry out leveraged variable interest rates. To speculate, mint principal and income tokens from the underlying asset, sell the principal tokens, and purchase more of the underlying asset, repeating the process until the desired variable interest rate exposure is achieved.

The possible alpha of the LSD track, yfi, officially announced that it will launch high-yield LSD products. According to community speculation, the yfi high-yield LSD product structure is to issue the second-tier product yeth based on the first-tier pledge certificates such as frxeth and steth, and through yearn itself The crv governance resources held build a dual-currency model similar to frxeth and sfrxeth, thereby increasing the yield of yeth.

The link that this product needs to get through is that the guage pool on yet/eth needs to be voted on. Because yearn’s behavior does not harm the interests of any other large CRV currency holders, even though yearn has a poor reputation in the curve ecosystem, it is still judged to be more likely to pass. If the proposal is passed, YFI's MC will now be less than half that of Frax, but the vecrv held by YFI may be more than double that of Frax, and yeteth's yield will be greater than frxeth.

I guessed the track correctly, but not the bigger theme🤦‍♀️

As the first project of Layerzero to issue coins, stg’s annual trading volume is about 2.4 billion, and the 0.01% handling fee allocated to LP is 240,000. With such poor data, it is decisive to choose multichain in the cross-chain track, but you should think of it, op The growth rate on TVL has already skyrocketed before that of Stg, and he, who ranked ninth, was also roped into the camp by the OP.

The market now believes that the Federal Reserve must raise interest rates significantly. The risk of a 50 basis point rate hike at next month's meeting is rising, and the terminal interest rate may reach 6.5%.

The source of the discussion in the market about a 50bp interest rate hike came from Mester’s speech on the 16th. Then Mester said two days ago:

There is a high probability that this month's CPI will be lower than expected. I will calculate the specific figures on Friday. I feel that I no longer need to prove to others in this regard, just for your information.

Let me tell you for the last time, good economic data is not a negative for the stock market, nor is it a basis for raising interest rates. The Federal Reserve has a grudge against high inflation, but a harmonious economy does not. This is a country, and the last thing it wants is a positive real GDP.