麋鹿科技

PI Coin Core Data Exposure: Circulation has exceeded 6 billion, the risk of selling pressure cannot be ignored!

📌 Total Supply: 9.294 billion
📌 Circulation: 6.041 billion (accounting for 65%)
📌 Number of Users: 60 million
📌 Real-name Users: 19 million
📌 Users Migrated to Mainnet: 10 million

In comparison, the number of wallet addresses for Dogecoin's icon was only 7.1 million in 2024, expected to reach a maximum of 10 million this year, while the number of PI Coin users has already surpassed it by 6 times! The question is, will a large number of PI Coin holders choose to sell? This directly relates to the market trend after the coin is listed.

If the selling pressure is too great, will PI Coin experience a 'peak at opening'?

PI Coin is different from regular public chain projects; it has a strong 'faith effect.' However, if the market cannot absorb the selling pressure, the risk of price collapse will increase. In the face of this situation, my trading strategies are as follows:

✅ Short-term Strategy: Observe liquidity, quick in and out!
If there is insufficient buying after the opening and low trading volume, it indicates low market acceptance, and it is not advisable to enter blindly at this time. I will focus on the opening price and short-term volatility range to capture short-term arbitrage opportunities.

✅ Medium-term Strategy: Observe the controlling ability of the operators!
If the project party or main funds have control capabilities, they may stabilize the coin price by restricting withdrawals or controlling circulation. I will closely monitor OKX's trading policies to see if there are any hidden benefits or changes in rules.

✅ Long-term Strategy: Faith vs. Real Value!
If PI Coin can gradually build a practical application ecosystem, market consensus will naturally strengthen. However, if it relies solely on user base and 'faith marketing,' it will ultimately struggle to escape the fate of a bubble burst. I will wait for the market to calm down before deciding whether to hold long-term! Go with the trend, refuse to be swayed by 'faith'!

Countdown to the massive unlocking of 57,027,417,357 SOL! Warning of a 112 million token dump, how can investors avoid risks? Listen to the full text for about 2 minutes to free your eyes. As March 1 approaches, Solana (SOL) is about to experience the largest token unlock of the year—112 million tokens (approximately $26.3 billion) will be released all at once, accounting for 23% of its total supply. This event has sparked widespread market concerns and may become the biggest 'black swan' risk in the recent cryptocurrency market. Analyzing the impact of the unlock: 1. Assessment of selling pressure scale - The tokens being unlocked will mainly flow to early investors and project teams, whose holding costs are generally lower than the current market price (approximately $235), creating strong motives to cash out. - Based on the current market capitalization, if 50% of the unlocked tokens are sold, approximately $131.5 billion in funds would be needed to absorb them, equivalent to nearly three months' worth of Solana's average daily trading volume, creating significant liquidity pressure. 2. Historical data warnings - After the unlocking of 80 million tokens in August 2024, the price plummeted by 37% within a week, and the rebound was weak. This time, the unlocking volume has increased by 40% compared to the previous instance, intensifying market panic. Investor risk avoidance strategies - Short-term operational advice: 1. Set stop-loss lines: If SOL falls below $215 (recent support level), be cautious of accelerated decline risks. 2. Build positions in batches: If the price drops to the $172-$194 range, consider gradually entering based on market sentiment. - Long-term perspective: Pay attention to changes in the total value locked (TVL) in the Solana ecosystem; if on-chain activity remains unaffected after the unlock, it may signal a buying opportunity. Industry insights: Deficiencies in the token economic model are once again exposed; projects with high inflation should carefully assess the unlocking cycle and circulation ratio.

【Bitcoin Bull Market Cycle Analysis】📈
​In the nearly 800 days from 2023 to now, the time that Bitcoin has been flat or falling accounts for 75.29%, with each rise lasting only about 30 days. This tells us that the actual time of significant rises is quite short, and for most of the time, the market is either flat or declining. This is a normal phenomenon!🔄
​After a long period of consolidation, the next rise may change around March 2025. Be patient and expect the first correction to see 85000.

The new version of 'event contracts' in the cryptocurrency world is a paradise for retail investors. I used DeepSeek to analyze the probabilities of winning and losing on 'event contracts': losing 55.56%, winning 44.44%. It seems unfair, and the odds are not 1:1, but we can improve our win rate through various investment techniques, such as candlestick charts, chip distribution, and assessing the international market environment, etc. For investors with a good market sense, especially short-term investors, this is a very good arbitrage model. Because 'event contracts' do not require transaction fees, they are really appealing for short-term players. As we all know, once a trend is established, it is very difficult to reverse. I have executed three trades, winning all three; the win rate for buying in an upward trend is indeed very high. Especially in cases of sharp declines or sharp increases, there are very good arbitrage opportunities. After a sharp decline in an upward trend, a rebound often follows, but after a sharp increase, it is likely that there will be another sharp increase. In a downward trend, after a sharp decline, it is likely to continue declining, and after a sharp increase, it is likely to rise and then fall back. To summarize, the strong remain strong, and the weak remain weak. Another technique to improve the win rate is to use a cycle of increasing bets. For example, a sequence of numbers 81248 means that after winning with 80% of my position, I immediately reduce my position to 10%. If my judgment is wrong and I incur a loss, I increase my position to 20% and continue increasing to 40% if I still make mistakes, and so on. Theoretically, the betting method for 'event contracts' can have a win rate exceeding 50%. Finally, I would like to say that a mistake in judgment on 'event contracts' will lead to forced liquidation (margin call).

The next dark horse to rank second in market capitalization may be XRP and DOGE adjusting the position of number two, with a market cap of 400 billion.

Overview of All Events in the Cryptocurrency Circle for January 2025!
January 2025 Cryptocurrency Events
January 7: United States - JOLTS Job Openings
January 7: $DUSK - Mainnet Launch
January 8: Xterio - $XTER TGE
January 9: United States - Initial Jobless Claims
January 9: $D - Binance $D (formerly $DAR) Listing
January 9: $ZEUS - Launch of Phase Two
January 9: $CRO - zkEVM Mainnet Upgrade
January 10: United States - Unemployment Rate
January 14: United States - PPI
January 15: United States - CPI
January 15: Derive - $DRV TGE
January 16: $S - Binance $S (formerly $FTM) Listing
January 18: $ONDO - 134% Circulating Supply (~$26.8B) Token Unlock
January 18: $UXLINK - $41 Million Token Unlock
January 19: $STMX - $EARNM IMO
January 20: United States - Presidential Inauguration of Donald Trump
January 20: World Economic Forum
January 20: United States Securities and Exchange Commission - Gary Gensler Resignation

The most important aspect of investing is mindset
It depends on whether you can remain calm in times of greed and maintain faith in times of fear!

TRB will be the native currency of the chain, used for staking, tipping, and voting. All token economics will remain the same. 4,000 tokens will continue to be distributed to the team each month, and an equal amount of tokens will be distributed to reporters and validators as inflation rewards. Of the time-based rewards, 75% will be distributed to reporters and the remaining 25% will be distributed to validators.

The reincarnation of the bull market: cold thinking behind the surge

Looking back at every bull market, it always presents an exciting but sighing picture. From the initial surge to the final deep adjustment, there are changes in investment mentality full of hope, anxiety and helplessness. From a professional perspective, the bull market is part of the market cycle, and only calmness and rationality can help you steadily cross the market's storms.

The first stage: surge and optimism
In the early stage of the bull market, investors are always excited by the rapid surge. Stimulated by the soaring stock prices, people continue to increase their investment, and even borrow money to speculate in stocks, as if wealth is just in front of them.

The second stage: national enthusiasm
As the bull market spreads further, the overwhelming reports of the news media make everyone believe that they can also become stock gods. When market sentiment is at its peak, risks are often ignored, and trading volume continues to soar, as if wealth is gained without work.

The third stage: differentiation and volatility
But no bull market is smooth sailing. As the market reaches a high point, volatility and differentiation begin to appear. The decline of some stocks makes investors uneasy, and changes in policy direction make the market more unpredictable.

Stage 4: Panic and Selling
When the market receives unfavorable news, panic spreads rapidly. Many investors begin to sell in panic, and the confidence they once had turns into uneasiness, and the market falls into a deep adjustment. Those who chase the hope of a bull market have to face the losses in reality. Stage 5: Calmness and Reflection
As time goes by, the market gradually returns to rationality. Experts begin to re-analyze, and investors also begin to reflect on their decisions. The bull market is like a dream. Only by keeping rationality can we calmly deal with it in the next market cycle.

Rationally Crossing Bull Market Fluctuations
The rise and fall of the bull market is part of the natural law of the market. If you want to be invincible in such a cycle, rational investment is essential. Just as every bull market ends, it is always accompanied by profound reflection and lessons. Only by making long-term plans and insisting on calm analysis can we seize the opportunity when the next bull market comes, instead of falling into the dreamy icon of chasing ups and downs again. The market is unpredictable, but the investment mentality must be firm.

The road to success is not crowded, because not many people can persist to the end.
Before the big bull market came, the contract leverage was violently liquidated.
Before the big bull market in 2021, 100% of the long leverage was cleared through 312, that is, all the long people on 312 were 100% liquidated, and even most of the short people saw that the decline was too much, and they went to buy the bottom and were liquidated.
The rest are all air force leaders, professional short sellers, and never take long positions. This wave of people was finally taken away by the unlimited pull after 312.
The bull market in 2017 was even more so. At that time, almost all the currency circles were invested by Chinese people. As a result, not to mention the liquidation volume in 94, even all the domestic exchanges were moved, and the spot party also sold all the goods for cash. After selling all the chips, there was no place to buy.
As a result, two months after 94, Bitcoin and many copycats soared all the way, and Bitcoin also rose directly to nearly 20,000 dollars.

Summary: The more ruthless the wash, the more fierce the rise will be later.

Current status of the cryptocurrency industry
Total market value: 2 trillion
Bitcoin icon Ethereum 1.4 trillion (Btc=1.12 trillion Eth=0.284 trillion)
Stablecoin: 0.17 trillion
Other altcoins: 0.43 trillion
Among them, Bitcoin and Ethereum account for 70%, stablecoins 8.5%, and other altcoins 21.5%.
Before the last bull market, the total market value of Bitcoin was about 270 billion, 72 billion, and the rest of the altcoins were 140 billion. Compared with the last bull market, Bitcoin rose 4.1 times, Ethereum rose 3.9 times, and the rest of the altcoins rose 3 times.
After 4 years of bull and bear cycles, Ethereum did not outperform Bitcoin, and the altcoins did not outperform Ethereum. In addition, Bitcoin and Ethereum both rose by about 4 times on average, 4 times in 4 years, but the altcoins everyone felt collapsed.
Many people have suffered serious losses. The reason is that although the total market value of the altcoins has increased by 3 times, the number has increased by more than 30 times. Therefore, many altcoins have actually been falling for a long time, especially in the past six months. Many altcoins have fallen by more than 80-90%, and many mainstream altcoins have fallen by 60-80%.
This brings us back to another topic, that is, the market value share of Bitcoin and Ethereum is still 70%. In the past 6 years, the total market value of Bitcoin and Ethereum has basically accounted for 70% or even higher in the entire industry.
Therefore, except for the specific time window of the main rising wave of the bull market or the outbreak of some new sectors, the proportion of Bitcoin and Ethereum in crypto holdings at any time must be 70%, or even more than 80-90%, for investment to be safe, otherwise it is easy to have systemic risks.

Many people feel desperate about the current market and see no hope of making money. However, in the past history, whenever 90% of people collapsed and despaired and left the market without caring, it was when the market was quietly brewing. Intuitively, the market should not be far away.

​​$ARB thought that once the bull market arrived, it would be nothing to easily increase fivefold.
$STRK is an outlier in L2, and investing in it will not be a big deal.
$LDO will become popular as long as it becomes popular. It is always wise to get on board this big construction train.
$UNI is rumored to be paying dividends. As the industry leader, it is reasonable to break through the historical high, right?
$TIA has become so popular in L2, and many people rely on it. It is not an exaggeration to say that it is a potential coin.
$ETH is definitely several levels higher than BTC.

1. $BTC has not rebounded in 4 hours, and the intraday fluctuations will be relatively large in the short term. Pay attention to risk control

2. $ETH ecological projects have begun to recover. ETH has recently reached a record high in on-chain inflation. It will continue to adjust in the short term! A large application ecosystem is needed to activate the ecosystem

3. $SOL is in normal adjustment. The longer the time, the greater the future prospects

4. $BNB ranks fourth in market value and is not to be messed with. It has tried every means to increase the price. It currently exceeds the market value of its competitors by 20%, with various empowerments, airdrops, etc.;

5. ZachXBT: McDonald's official Instagram was suspected of being hacked and used to promote Meme coins;

There is still a possibility of a correction in the market.
Negative factors still exist:
The selling pressure of BTC in Mentougou continues, and the conflict between Iran and Israel continues.
​​​​After 7 o'clock in the morning, the Mentougou wallet address transferred another 0.0199 BTC.
This is a transfer test before large-scale transfer.
Mentougou still has about 50,000 BTC waiting to be released in batches.
​​There are two major events this week:
US August PMI at 21:45 on Thursday
Powell's speech at 22:00 on Friday
The general trend is definitely to rise, and there will be shocks and twists in the middle.
It will take at least 1-2 weeks to digest the selling pressure of Mentougou tokens.
Mentougou has been running for 10 years. Once this big thunder is lifted, it will be a big boon to the currency circle.
​In addition, the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut is coming, and the first interest rate cut may be in September.
​Don't chase the rise if it rises to more than 60,000, learn to buy low.

After yesterday's 61100 and 59400 were all sold, the overall trend is still mainly low-level fluctuations. From the overall trend, it is still weak at present;
​​​​​The daily line hit a high and retreated to collect a slightly long shadow on the upper lead, and the upper 60-day moving average was under strong pressure. Although it is currently above the middle track, the K-line pattern is relatively strong, and the Bollinger band is shrinking overall; the 4-hour line is under pressure below the middle track, and the lower track support is 57800. The hourly line is currently subject to the suppression of the 60-day moving average. From the end of yesterday to now, the overall pressure has been on the 60-day moving average, and the lower track support is 58000;

Characteristics of past bull markets:

1. BTC and ETH both broke through the historical highs of the previous bull market, which marked the official start of the bull market.
2. The daily K-line prices of Bitcoin and Ethereum deviate from the 60-day moving average by more than 30%, and the 60-day moving average continues to rise. This means that investors who entered the market during each time period have made profits.
3. The 30-day, 60-day, 120-day, and 200-day moving averages are dispersed, indicating that chips have begun to be distributed dispersedly, and the market has a significant money-making effect.
4. Exchange activities are frequent, and project parties take advantage of the situation to issue new projects and seek to sell them at high prices.
5. Moments and group chats are full of profit-sharing and myths about getting rich. Investors are highly motivated and eager to get rich overnight.
6. The market value of Bitcoin has dropped to about 30%, the market value of altcoins has soared, and market risks have gradually accumulated.
7. The trading volume and turnover rate are extremely high, and the market is active.
8. The Ethereum Foundation began to sell coins frequently, and its wallet assets gradually flowed into exchanges.
9. Good market news continues to spread, and stories emerge in endlessly, each story has its own charm.

This atypical bull market will no longer follow the above script, but the only thing that remains unchanged is——

Those who only have a long-term view, do not pay attention to short-term corrections, focus on the bull market cycle, and hold on are the winners.

In history, those who only pay attention to the rise and fall midway are picking up sesame seeds and throwing away watermelons.