Judging from the supply histogram, USDT supply stabilized after experiencing rapid growth last week. The current USDT supply situation is in a trend of long-term positive + short-term positive.
Note data meaning:
1. Histogram value <span It means that the MACD line is smaller than the signal line, indicating a long-term negative trend.
2. Histogram value >0: It means that the MACD line is greater than the signal line, which is a positive long-term trend.
3. Dark color of the histogram: represents month-on-month acceleration, dark green short-term positive trend, dark red short-term negative trend
4. Light color of the histogram: represents month-on-month deceleration, light green short-term negative trend, light red short-term positive trend
1. Histogram value <span It means that the MACD line is smaller than the signal line, indicating a long-term negative trend.
2. Histogram value >0: It means that the MACD line is greater than the signal line, which is a positive long-term trend.
3. Dark green histogram: represents month-on-month acceleration, dark green short-term positive trend
4. Light color of the histogram: represents month-on-month deceleration, light green short-term negative trend
Last week’s data:
Last weekend, due to the thunderstorm of SVB Bank behind USDC, a large number of users redeemed USDC for USD or exchanged it for USDT for safety.
Looking at specific data, USDT supply increased by about 900 million last week (Figure 1 below), and USDC supply decreased by about 3.1 billion (Figure 1 below).
As you all know, yesterday PAXOS announced that it would stop minting new BUSD and terminate its cooperation with Binance:
Affected by this, the supply of BUSD will not increase in the future, so it is no longer meaningful to analyze the kinetic energy of BUSD supply. In the future, I will remove the data tracking of BUSD and only track UDST. As for USDC, because its current trading volume is still too small (less than 10%), I will consider it if USDC’s trading volume accounts for more than 20% in the future.
Data meaning:
1. Histogram value <span It means that the MACD line is smaller than the signal line, indicating a long-term negative trend.
Figure 3 below: The total supply histogram of USDT+BUSD can represent the momentum of the market’s main trading funds. The addition of the two can also avoid the impact of the ebb and flow of a single stablecoin on judging the trend. This chart is currently in a long-term negative + short-term positive trend
Figure 3 below: The total supply histogram of USDT+BUSD can represent the momentum of the market’s main trading funds. The addition of the two can also avoid the impact of the ebb and flow of a single stablecoin on judging the trend. This chart is currently in a long-term negative + short-term positive trend
Figure 3 below: The total supply histogram of USDT+BUSD can represent the momentum of the market’s main trading funds. The addition of the two can also avoid the impact of the ebb and flow of a single stablecoin on judging the trend. This chart is currently in a long-term negative + short-term positive trend
Figure 3 below: The total supply histogram of USDT+BUSD can represent the momentum of the market’s main trading funds. The addition of the two can also avoid the impact of the ebb and flow of a single stablecoin on judging the trend. This chart is currently in a long-term negative + short-term neutral trend
Figure 3 below: The total supply histogram of USDT+BUSD can represent the momentum of the market’s main trading funds. The addition of the two can also avoid the impact of the ebb and flow of a single stablecoin on judging the trend. This chart is currently in a long-term negative + short-term neutral trend
Figure 3 below: The total supply histogram of USDT+BUSD can represent the momentum of the market’s main trading funds. The addition of the two can also avoid the impact of the ebb and flow of a single stablecoin on judging the trend. This chart is currently in a long-term negative + short-term negative trend
Token Unlocking Tracking The information on tokens that will have a large number of cliff unlocks in 2023 is compiled as follows.
Figure 1: Sort in reverse order according to the proportion of cliff unlocking volume to current circulation. The higher the ratio, the greater the potential impact on price after unlocking.
Figure 2: Sorted in reverse order by cliff unlocking time
In the previous article "Tracking Long-term Trends through Stablecoin Supply", we tried to use the MACD indicator of USDT supply to observe the inherent momentum of funds. The current effect is more representative than the "monthly average month-on-month histogram" used before. So starting this week, I'll be tracking the data using this new metric instead.
Data meaning:
1. Histogram value <span It means that the MACD line is smaller than the signal line, indicating a long-term negative trend.
2. Histogram value >0: It means that the MACD line is greater than the signal line, which is a positive long-term trend.
This article tracks the long-term trend by observing the supply rate of the stablecoin USDT and matching the utilization rate of the stablecoin on the chain.
We know that the supply of stablecoins determines the supply of funds in the crypto market. The greater the supply, the more abundant the funds, and vice versa. But if you only look at the supply, you will inevitably fall into a question: Why is the overall supply in this year's bear market not large, but the price has been falling? Is there no correlation between stablecoin supply and price movements?
As can be seen in the picture above, the USDT supply at the BTC double top in 2021 is 46 billion and 73 billion respectively, while the current USDT supply is 66 billion, which seems to be not less than the supply at the double top last year. . With this question in mind, we try to introduce the supply rate of stablecoins to observe its relationship with price trends.
1. Net inflow represents the entry of funds into the market, which is a positive trend.
2. Net outflow represents the outflow of funds from the market, which is a negative trend.
3. Monthly average month-on-month histogram, representing the month-on-month incremental ratio of funds. If the ratio is positive and larger, it means the faster the capital inflow, which is a positive trend; if the ratio is negative and smaller, it means the faster the capital outflow is, which is a negative trend.
Tracking cycle: Data for the previous 7 days are updated every Tuesday
Last week’s data:
Market value fluctuation last week: fluctuated between 129.881 and 128.851 billion (fluctuation value 1.03 billion)
1. Net inflow represents the entry of funds into the market, which is a positive trend.
2. Net outflow represents the outflow of funds from the market, which is a negative trend.
3. Monthly average month-on-month histogram, representing the month-on-month incremental ratio of funds. If the ratio is positive and larger, it means the faster the month-on-month inflow of funds, which is a positive trend; if the ratio is negative and smaller, it means the faster the month-on-month outflow of funds, which is a negative trend.
Tracking cycle: Data for the previous 7 days are updated every Tuesday
Last week’s data:
Market value fluctuation last week: fluctuated between 130.366 and 130.057 billion (fluctuation value 309 million)
1. Net inflow represents the entry of funds into the market, which is a positive trend.
2. Net outflow represents the outflow of funds from the market, which is a negative trend.
3. Monthly average month-on-month histogram, representing the month-on-month incremental ratio of funds. If the ratio is positive and larger, it means the faster the month-on-month inflow of funds, which is a positive trend; if the ratio is negative and smaller, it means the faster the month-on-month outflow of funds, which is a negative trend.
Tracking cycle: Data for the previous 7 days are updated every Tuesday
Last week’s data:
Market value fluctuation last week: fluctuated between 130.120 and 130.897 billion (fluctuation value 777 million)
The non-agricultural data exceeded expectations, and expectations of a rate hike in terminal interest rates to 5-5.25 in March have increased, and the risk market will continue to be under pressure.