9.17 How will the cryptocurrency market go in the interest rate cut cycle?
1. From QT to QE, the most important thing is the reduction of capital costs. There are two very important impacts on the liquidity-dominated cryptocurrency market. The first is that BTC.D will peak, and funds will flow from conservative BTC to aggressive altcoins. The second is that QE will bring about a real violent bull market
2. However, in the process from QT to QE, the US stock market has plummeted in history. Institutions need to obtain lower-priced chips before the arrival of QE. This plunge usually occurs around the second and third interest rate hikes
3. I am cautiously optimistic about the current market, bullish on September-October, and cautious about November-December

9.14 Opportunities always come to those who are prepared
1. When I bought the bottom at 53,500 on September 7, some people always said that September has always fallen, and historical interest rate cuts have always fallen, and it will go to 40,000 before the decline is complete. As a result, yesterday's big positive line made these people scramble
2. When I bought the bottom, I gave a BTC target of more than 65,000. Now it has reached a higher low point, and it will create a higher high point next. There will be some resistance in the 61,000-62,000 area

9.12 Small callback, easy to grasp
1. Yesterday, the callback range of 54700-55700 was given. The BTC price fell very accurately in this range and then began to rise
2. The price has broken through 58000 in the morning. Whether it can stand firm will be seen at the close of tomorrow. If it cannot stand firm, it will fluctuate for a few days before rising
3. The spot bought at the bottom on September 7 has been held, and the target is above 65000

9.12 Small callback, easy to grasp
1. Yesterday, the callback range of 54700-55700 was given. The BTC price fell very accurately in this range and then began to rise
2. The price has broken through 58000 in the morning. Whether it can stand firm will be seen at the close of tomorrow. If it cannot stand firm, it will fluctuate for a few days before rising
3. The spot bought at the bottom on September 7 has been held, and the target is above 65000

9.11 Breaking the downward trend
1. BTC started to pull back after breaking through 57,000 and reaching 58,000 for the first time. From the hourly level, it completed the first higher high and ended the downward trend from 65,000 to 52,500
2. Pay attention to the support range of 54,700-55,700 below
3. The target of this wave of BTC is to return to above 65,000 unchanged

9.10 The boat has passed through thousands of mountains
1. For the first time in the past six months, BTC has created a higher low of 52,500. The expectation for this period of time is that it will rise above the previous high of 65,000, and there is a probability that it will reach a new high
2. But I don’t think there will be any violent bull market in the fourth quarter. I am only bullish on the market in September and October, and bullish on BTC. It is difficult for ETH and altcoins to return to their highs this year

#BTC #ETH #SOL

9.9 Everything is ready, only the east wind is missing
1. After this drop, BTC continued to have negative funding rates, the long-short ratio reached an extreme high, and the greed panic index almost reached the moment of FTX thunderstorm. 9 out of 10 bloggers are bearish. When everyone panics, it is naturally my greedy time
2. BTC did not create a lower low this time, but only stepped back to the low of July 5, which is of great significance to the bulls. Of course, if the volume stands above 57100, it will confirm the bottom of 52500

8.30 is about to usher in a big rise
1. BTC's sharp drop caused panic in the market, the funding rate turned negative, and the continuous huge long positions were liquidated, accumulating a lot of fuel for the next big rise
2. The correction is nearing the end, and the 56,000-58,000 area has good support. In fact, it has only retreated about 0.382 since the rise on August 5
3. SOL is weakening, ETH is strengthening, this will be a long-term trend change

8.29 The callback has ended, and it will continue to rise after the shock
1. After the rapid decline and stepping back to 58,000 the day before yesterday, it did not lead to a continuous decline, but once again confirmed that the support of 58,000 was effective
2. From the weekly chart, in the past 6 months, only one week's closing price was lower than 58,000, and it was immediately recovered, and all other weekly closing prices were higher than 58,000

Outlook for the fourth quarter: Analysis of the trend of US stocks and Bitcoin in the interest rate cut cycle

There is no doubt that interest rate increases and cuts are the macro factors that have the greatest impact on the trading market. The currency circle has only experienced it once in 2019, and the peak was reached at the first interest rate cut, but the sample size is too small, so we still use the Nasdaq as a reference

Based on the data of the past 40 years, there is roughly an interest rate cut cycle every 10 years or so, in 1989, 2000, 2007, and 2019. There are several important conclusions

1. During the interest rate cut period, the US stock market will inevitably plummet. In 1989/19, the decline was 32%. There were crises in 2000 and 2007, and the decline was more than 50%. The decline was smaller in soft landing and huge in hard landing.
2. The market peaked not at the first interest rate cut. To be precise, it peaked around the second and third interest rate cuts, except in 2000 when the stock index had already fallen sharply before the emergency interest rate cut.
3. Since 2017, BTC has never been spared during the Nasdaq's plunge, and it will basically follow. Of course, after the interest rate cut, the index has ushered in a sharp rise.

In summary, the market has experienced a sharp rise before the interest rate cut, so it is difficult to avoid a correction during the interest rate cut. The extent of the correction will depend on whether the US economy has a soft landing or a hard landing; and BTC has soared all the way before the interest rate cut in 2019, fully PRICE IN, so the peak will be reached when the interest rate is cut. The difference is that this year BTC has been sideways for nearly 6 months before the interest rate cut, and it continues to rise in August and September. What should be more careful is the trend before and after the second and third interest rate cuts, that is, from October to December. If BTC still cannot reach a new high during this period or the new high is not far away, then the risk of peaking should be considered.

8.19 Several judgments on this wave of market
1. First of all, 49,000 is the bottom of this wave and it will not be broken. If there is a correction, it will not be very deep. You can add positions in the 54,000-56,000 area
2. The rise has just begun, the target is at least 68,000, there is a probability of a new high, and it will last at least one or two months
3. The sign of the bull attack is a positive line with a large volume breaking through the 62,000 area. It can break through this week or fluctuate for a few weeks before breaking through

Two pictures tell you that the bull market is not over
1. Absolute decline: All bull markets, including the 19-year bull market, have a maximum decline of more than 50% within 5 months after reaching the peak. The maximum decline in this round is only 32%, and it is only 20% at present. The real peak is overwhelming and will not be so slow
2. Retracement range: All bull markets have a retracement of more than 61.8% within 5 months after reaching the peak. Even if this round starts from 25,000, the maximum retracement is only 50%, which is a very normal callback

8.17 Adjustment is coming to an end, and a breakthrough is expected next week
1. Yesterday, it fell below 57,500, and the market was in mourning. There were all kinds of bearish arguments such as "double top breaking" and "more plummeting". These people can't distinguish between the main trend and the secondary trend, and can't distinguish between true and false breakthroughs, so they are led by the main force
2. Today's decline has been recovered. False breakouts will generally lead to real rises. Next week, it is expected to break through 62,000 and start a surge

8.16 Hold on to your chips and don’t get washed out
1. Yesterday, the target range for the callback was 55,000-57,500. The price immediately rose when it dropped to 56,000. This is only a retracement of 50% of the entire increase, which is a very normal callback
2. BTC’s funding rate has turned negative, and a lot of shorts have accumulated. This is the fuel for the next big rise. The rise has just begun. Hold on to your chips and wait for takeoff

When will the copycat bull market come?

To answer this question, we must first understand the most basic logic. BTC is to the cryptocurrency world what the U.S. dollar is to foreign exchange. In the monetary tightening and interest rate hike cycle, funds flow back to the U.S. dollar, and cryptocurrency funds flow back to BTC. In the monetary easing and interest rate cut cycle, the opposite is true.

BTC's market share has been strong for two years. The interest rate cut cycle will start in September, which also means that BTC.D will peak in the fourth quarter of this year.

8.15 Waiting for a breakthrough
1. The positive CPI last night did not drive BTC to break through the 62,000 area. It seems that the main force needs to continue to fluctuate and change hands. What you need to do is to hold the chips and wait for a breakthrough
2. The fluctuation will not be very deep, and the support range below is around 55,000-57,500

8.14 The surge is imminent
1. At present, the three moving averages of BTC daily line have begun to flatten intensively, and the 2H line also has multiple moving averages flattening intensively, which is a sign of an upcoming big fluctuation
2. If the volume breaks through the 62700 area, the runaway mode will start. Pay close attention to the prices in this area in the near future
3. SOL has been somewhat out of power recently, SUI has taken the lead, and ETH has also risen steadily, and the style of the old, middle and young generations of public chains has changed

8.13 Pullback is an opportunity to get on board

1.BTC will pull back to the range of 54000-57500, which is the last opportunity to add positions before the big rise. The next time it breaks through 62000, it will be a one-stop opportunity

2.ETH's market share has reached the lowest position in the past three years. Combined with the largest single-day long position liquidation on August 5 and the continuous purchase of ETH ETF, ETH's strength and explosion can also be expected

8.12 After the pullback, a surge will start
1. BTC closed with a long lower shadow last week, the price returned to the consolidation range, and the trading volume increased. This is a false break downward
2. After reaching 62,000, it began to fluctuate. Focus on the support level of 56,000 below. After the pullback, the next breakthrough of 62,000 will start a surge

8.9 BTC 100,000
1. When buying the bottom on August 5, it is expected that BTC will at least rise back to 64,000, with a probability of setting a new record high. At present, the probability of setting a new record high is more than 70%
2. BTC has been fluctuating for nearly 5 months. Once it breaks through, the price will go straight to 100,000, ETH 5,000, SOL 300
3. The strongest trend is to fall sideways, not giving you any chance to pick up cheap chips. If the 63,000 area can fluctuate sideways for a week or two and then break through, it will soar to the sky