The #Bitcoin market is currently experiencing a period of stagnation, with both demand and supply sides showing signs of inactivity. The market is characterized by minimal capital inflows and outflows, as the stagnant Realized Cap indicates.
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The competitiveness of the Mining landscape and their conviction in the #Bitcoin Network continues to rise, with the Hash Rate blasting towards new ATHs.
However, investors remain unconvinced in the short term, with exchange-related onchain volumes beginning to languish.
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Market speculation remains relatively subdued for #Bitcoin, with investors locking in only marginal profit and losses, and a reset across perpetual swap markets.
Historically, periods of quiet and calm market structure are short-lived, and often precede an expectation for heightened volatility.
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Amidst tumultuous market conditions as of late, Long-Term Holders have been locking in a reasonably consistent $138M in profit per day. With each transaction, a buyer and a seller are matched, with supply and demand imbalances resolved via price changes.
Therefore, we can infer that this ~$138M/day in LTH sell-side pressure is a read for the daily capital inflows required to absorb supply and keep prices steady. While market conditions have been choppy, prices are generally flat over the last few months, suggesting a form of equilibrium is being reached.
#Bitcoin Dominance has surged from 38% in Nov 2022 to a notable 56% today. Meanwhile, #Ethereum, the second-largest asset, saw its dominance decline by 1.5%, remaining relatively stable over the past two years.
In contrast, Stablecoins and the broader Altcoin sector experienced more significant declines of 9.9% and 5.9%, respectively.
The LTH Sell-Side Risk ratio remains lower than during previous ATH breaks, indicating that the LTH cohort is taking smaller profits compared to past cycles. This suggests they may be waiting for higher prices before increasing their selling pressure.
When we analyze the yearly median value of Spot CVD, we can see that the median value has fluctuated between -$22m and -$50m over the last 2 years, suggesting the presence of a net-sell side bias.
The Accumulation Trend Score (ATS) indicates a market shift back to accumulation, with the ATS reaching its maximum value of 1.0, signaling significant accumulation over the past month.
Since #Bitcoin's ATH in March, the market has seen widespread supply distribution across all wallet sizes. Recently, this trend shows signs of reversing, especially among the largest wallets, often linked to ETFs, which are now returning to accumulation.
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In derivatives markets, a large volume of long positions were forced closed, with a total volume of $275m worth of long contracts liquidated. Additionally, an extra $90m was liquidated from the short-side, for combined total liquidation volume of $365m.
The sell-off triggered a surge in panic by investors, with around $1.38B in realized losses locked in by market participants. In absolute terms, this is the 13th largest event in history on a USD denominated basis.
Short-Term Holders are currently holding the largest unrealized loss since the FTX implosion, which again highlights a point of serious investor stress imposed by current market conditions.
On Monday 5-Aug, equities and digital assets sold off sharply, as the unwinding of the yen-carry trade deleveraged markets, and US treasuries rallied on fears of a recession.
#Bitcoin recorded a drawdown of -32% from the ATH, the most severe of the current cycle.
August has already been a exceptionally eventful month across both equity and digital asset markets, after a âcorrelation-1â event sparked a major market sell-off.
#Bitcoin has been no exception, recording its largest drawdown of the cycle, causing capitulation amongst Short-Term Holders.
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Given the sudden market reaction and declines in markets globally, understanding seller exhaustion among short-term holders has become increasingly important. Our analysis of the Short-Term Holder Seller Exhaustion Model provides insights using metrics like STH MVRV, STH SOPR, and STH Realized Loss to navigate through volatile times.
Learn more about this model and its applications here:Â
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