The major trend has been set, and BTC has drawn a large arch on the daily chart!
The super large level is a double top at 106400! Currently, 102500 is a triple top, and below it is a triple bottom at 92 (excluding the spike at 90000). This sets the upper and lower boundaries for the next two to three months.
99900 is the last defense line for the short-term bulls in Bitcoin. Previously, I mentioned at @Old九歌 that if it breaks and goes up to 1027 before coming down, it will be considered a formation. Additionally, MACD has not accelerated to keep up with the rise to 106400, and the daily line is very close to the 0 axis. The 3-day MACD is diverging, which is a dangerous signal!!
You can refer to the trend of 73 from last year. If the daily line's body breaks below 92 and cannot recover, it may not be as simple as a spike to 89.
The daily line has had two consecutive bullish candles in the range of 945–100500, and after each series of consecutive bullish candles, it usually returns to the starting point of the bullish candles within a certain period. Therefore, 99900 is the lifeline for the bulls in Bitcoin.
On the short term, the range of 102500–102800, with a reduction of positions around 100000 to protect capital, the bears can operate in this range with a defense of 500 points.
ETH is getting closer to the descending trend line, and the points for shorting are getting lower. Those who want to short can do so in the range of 3252–3275, provided that Bitcoin does not reach 102500 during the day.
If Bitcoin cannot even rebound to 102500–103000 during the day, all long positions should exit.

Good afternoon everyone, let's talk about some off-topic discussions this time.
ETH VS SOL, as a result, Ethereum was directly abandoned by institutions and large holders, while BTC is heading towards new highs, and Ethereum is still hovering around 3300.
Why did SOL strongly reverse the bearish structure? Ever since Trump and SOL started making moves, SOL has skyrocketed. One reason I can think of might be related to Trump's promise to the SOL team to approve the ETF spot during his term.
After breaking the new high, there are no bottlenecks above anymore. As an old investor, if I missed it, I just missed it; I can't chase it, and I won't short it either.
Back to Ethereum, it is garbage as it is, but there was still hype around the Prague upgrade in the first half of the year. If it returns to around 2900, spot buying is still possible, in batches 235 or 334. For example, one batch at 3033, another at 2960, and a third at 28XX, then just let the rest sit.

At present, the price of Bread is rising in the 4h bottom divergence, and it will soon cross the zero axis, and it is ready to finish. KDJ is overbought.
For those who want to short, Bread has two points.
983, 995, at 983, 995, you should short even if you are wrong, and the stop loss should be thinner. Because at these two points, those who buy the bottom during the decline will be relieved.
The two Breads will be synchronized with Bread.
At present, the volume and price of Bread in 4h diverge. In the short term, if Bread falls back to 963 and does not break, go long at 963 on the left, and the target is 983.
If the 4h closing line is lower than 963, it will not go up sideways, and go short near 96 on the right.
Note that if Bread rises directly without falling back, it is equivalent to squatting and jumping, and it will fall faster.

Good afternoon everyone.
Let me briefly talk about the trend of the overall market BTC, and later I will post some analysis on long and short positions.
From the perspective of volume and price, yesterday's spike in BTC had a trading volume that was still far from half of the first pin bar, even less than the second pin bar. In addition, the daily chart shows three candlesticks with insufficient volume and price, confirming that BTC has not yet experienced a strong reversal. It is important to note that the doji candlestick is a sign of weakness, indicating weak performance in both upward and downward movements, showing neither significant gains nor losses. For all those bottom-fishing in spot trading and going long, you should decide for yourselves.
ETH requires special attention, as the daily level has clearly broken through the previous 30XX upward trend line, and it will take a considerable amount of time to consolidate before recovering.
When will BTC have a strong reversal? On the weekly level, if there is a second test next week that does not break the new low and is higher than this week's high, this structure within Wyckoff is called a low-level isolated pivot point, which may give you the opportunity to see BTC retest 995.

Brothers holding SOL can come and take a look.
Why is SOL so weak?
Why can't it go up after reaching 193?
Recently, some brothers have been frequently asking me about SOL, because the daily level of SOL has already fallen below the previous super cycle's high on the weekly downtrend line, so what else is there to look at?
Look at the chart, draw a trend line from the previous weekly top and see how many contact points there are, right? Now draw an upward trend line at 110.
According to the short-term bull support on the daily, it is 177, but note that it is short-term, with an overall bearish trend. Extreme support is at 160-162.
If SOL cannot recover above 193 on the weekly level, it will enter a long period of consolidation.
If Bitcoin really goes to 80k, SOL will accelerate its decline.

Emergency! Emergency! Please pay attention to the risks, fellow air force brothers.
Currently, BTC has a rare 1-hour roasted whole lamb K-line, which means that all the selling orders have been absorbed by the main force. The last recent situation occurred around November 11, when more than 10 1-hour K-lines were positive lines, and the price rose from 82 to around 9W at that time.
At present, the 1h multiple bottom divergence of the big cake has been completed, and the second cake has not yet been completed. The big cake is bold to go long when it falls back.
The short-term support of the big cake is around 94, and 928 has become an extreme support. You can find opportunities to do it in the range of 928-935. I don’t know if the dog dealer will give you an opportunity. The big cake market has already told you that I have broken through 928. Don’t short me in a place where there is no village in front and no store behind.
The pressure on the big cake is 957, 962, and 973.
The 4h of the second cake could not be broken by anything near 3322. It has become a big resistance at present. Those who want to go long or short need to observe.
For the second cake, you can go long near 3250 and 3220, just pay attention to the stop loss of the position. The pressure is 3322, 3384, and 3416.

Today's market analysis.
Bitcoin has been severely stabbed in the back by its ally Nasdaq, dropping over 6000 points in one day.
Bitcoin is likely to continue to dip; after the entity breaks through the rising trend at 915, 97300 and 98300 have become major resistance levels.
Currently, the main focus is on shorting during the rebound, observing whether 97300 and 98300 can be approached during the day; if they do, a short position can be initiated.
BTC has two support levels below, but it is uncertain if they can hold up the rebound,
95300 and 94000.
ETH has returned to the 3500~3200 range, with support at 3302 and 3220, and resistance at 3412, 3521, 3550.
As long as Bitcoin does not fall below 915, altcoin spot purchases are still viable, near the previous low.
If it breaks below, it's best to wait and see; once it reaches the 8 opening, all altcoins will die.

January 7th BTC Market Analysis.
Can Bitcoin still rise? At what points should we go long, and at what positions should we go short?
Bitcoin can still rise! But the extent won't be that large.
The 3-day or weekly candlestick at 108 shows a large-bodied dark cloud cover, which is a signal of a peak in a larger cycle.
The high points of a rebound after an overselling are generally resistance zones. Why did it drop around 102800? You can think about it by observing the market yourself.
Currently, the 3-day KDJ has formed a golden cross, the daily line has a golden cross, and the daily BOLL is widening with an upward trend. Although it has reached an overbought condition, with a strong bullish trend, it may rise a little more.
The first short-term support is at 101200, and the second support is around 100000.
Resistance: short-term resistance at 102000, 102700~103300.
Major resistance around 104600 and 105300; short positions should be around this area.
For those wanting to go long, 100000 and 101200 are both viable. Last night, it tested 101200 once; if it comes down again without breaking it, you can consider entering.

December 31st, the last market analysis of this year.
Whether it’s BTC, ETH, or SOL, the short-term strength is all a false rise.
When you see a large number of profit masters who previously made a fortune in the market are silent in the square, you know where the bull market has gone.
Why? Because most people's psychology is bullish; they can hold long positions but dare not short.
BTC, ETH, and SOL are all in a downward trend, whether on the three-day, weekly, or monthly charts.
The three-day chart is in a shrinking volume downtrend, and last week BTC left a long upper shadow, proving that the main force does not have a strong intention to push the price up.
From a technical perspective, the MACD on the three-day and weekly charts continues to open downward, and the KDJ is not yet in the oversold territory.
There are major weekly pressures and supports.
BTC: Resistance 1: 98300, Resistance 2: 99550, Resistance 3: 102800
Support 1: 90800, Support 2: 87900, Support 3: 83500
ETH: Resistance 1: 3530, Resistance 2: 3710, Resistance 3: 3860
Support 1: 3200, Support 2: 3040, Support 3: 2866
SOL: Resistance 1: 202, Resistance 2: 215, Resistance 3: 233
Support 1: 177, Support 2: 164, Support 3: 151
Short-term intraday resistance and support.
BTC: Resistance 1: 94700, Resistance 2: 96600
Support 1: 91200, Support 2: 90800
ETH: Resistance 1: 3430, Resistance 2: 3501
Support 1: 3295, Support 2: 3260
SOL: Resistance 1: 196.5, Resistance 2: 201.8
Support 1: 185.9, Support 2: 180.6
Short-term trading is mostly a scalp behavior, and volatile markets often show signs of reversal. The main trend is to rebound and short.
That's all! Wishing you prosperity!

Why did BTC fall? Isn't it normal that it can't go up after reaching the resistance level?
If you want to go long, pay attention to the risks, because the KDJ of 4h and daily lines has not reached oversold. If the 4h closing line of Bitcoin is below 95, it will be seen at 92-93. Only when the daily line of Bitcoin reaches oversold will there be a strong rebound. Beware of the early morning crash of the old M. If 92 is maintained, it will be a triple bottom. If it cannot be maintained, 9w is just around the corner.
If the 4h closing line of Bitcoin is below 3300, it will follow the Bitcoin dive.

BTC Morning Analysis.
The closing price of BTC is 957, which is not good news. The volume yesterday was smaller than the previous two days' bullish candles, but it almost erased the gains, proving that the main players and the bears have reached a consensus.
After a drop to 95 in the evening, it rebounded to the previous resistance of 965 and then fell again, proving that the shorts between 995 and 999 have not yet covered their positions, and with insufficient buying at 95, today's BOLL daily chart is opening downwards, and the daily MACD fast line has not yet turned around. The short-term moving averages are also forming a downward trend. In the short term, we need to see if a rebound can form around 936 to 94 to reach 95; if it goes down further, it will touch the edge of the range, which I previously subjectively considered a double bottom at 92. If a rebound cannot form here, we may see 908.
If it rebounds to 965-973 during the day, a short position can be taken.
The short-term extreme support for BTC is 887, and if it really drops to 90k, it will hit hard.

Carving the boat to seek the sword: Is it really possible for ETH to return to 2800? !
From the Fibonacci of the first new highs at the beginning of the last bull market and this bull market, it was found that from the beginning of Ethereum's 881 bull market to 4093 in the first half of this year, the deep wash returned to the 0.618 (2100 iron bottom) ~ 0.382 (2866) range for a very long time to absorb funds. The last bull market also broke through 0.382 and then broke through the previous high all the way.
Conclusion: The trends of these two bull markets are surprisingly similar.
At present, the Ethereum disk broke through the previous high of 4093 in this bull market and then fell back to test 0.236 (3335). The closing price last week was 3281, which has broken through 0.236. Now it is an oversold rebound. It is not so fast to fall back to 2800. The rebound is stronger than BTC because of the large buying volume.
Now there is a high probability that Bitcoin will rise again to hit 100500~102500. If it is benchmarked against Ethereum, it is around 3900.
If Bitcoin cannot continue to rise after rushing to around 102,500, it will have a deep correction.
If Bitcoin falls 10% from around 100,000, it will just reach 90,000. Ethereum will have to fall at least 15-20% and return to the 3,100 mark.
If Bitcoin falls another 10% from 90,000, it will just start at 80,000 as you said. It is not impossible for Ethereum to fall another 20%. Isn't 2,800 reached?
If it really comes to this moment, it is estimated that many people will go all-in in the spot market, because as long as there is a rate cut next year, the bull market will still be there, and with the Prague upgrade next year, the possibility of hitting 4,300 is even greater.
2,800~4,300, 1,500 points of spot increase, nearly 50%. As for the new high of 4,800? Only if Bitcoin conducts a deep wash before the crazy bull comes, there will be a possibility of 5,000.
As for what others say about 8,000, get lost, few people can hold on to the end.

BTC has actually fallen below the bullish trend, ETH has a hammer line + a long shadow on the weekly line, and the copycat suffered a Waterloo. Whether the market can recover may have to wait for Trump to take office?
Recently, there are all kinds of bloody chips. I dare not pick them up when they fall, and I dare not chase them when they rise. There is no way to fight against the sky, but fighting against people is endless fun. 😅
How to find large-scale support, and how to see the top pressure?
Three words: consensus area.
The bottom of each long real positive line is a big support. The main retail investors have reached a consensus, and it supports a big rise.
Multiple upper shadow line high points have not been able to break through in reality, and it is the top.
The first support of the big cake daily line is 956, but 983 has been broken in reality. The next support is near 918. There were a lot of buying orders near 94 before. If the real body falls, it will be a competition of who runs faster.
The second cake body fell below 3500, the first support below is 3250, and the extreme support is 3000-3033. The above 3497~3546 has become a big pressure area.

If the closing price of SOL on the daily chart is below 215, it will fall back into the upper channel of the bottom 120, with 221 and 230 becoming significant resistance.
If there is a favorable interest rate cut this week, the triple bottom pattern at 200 could quickly recover, making a market reversal highly likely.
If the rebound after a spike down to 200 is weak, it proves that 200 is not yet the pivotal point for GM.
That gives us the first support at 200, the second support at 195, and extreme support at 185.
From the large wave of rise from 120 to 264.6, the increase is nearly 145 points. According to the saying that everything except Bitcoin is a knockoff, it's common to see the increase halved, which would be a drop of 72.5 points, landing right near the first support at 195.
Of course, with a favorable interest rate cut, the probability of a direct rise past the triple bottom at 200 is higher, making the probabilities of reaching 195 and 185 relatively smaller.

BTC has reached a new high again. Currently, this wave of new rise has a short-term top at 109000 to 11W, and then it will enter a new round of consolidation and fluctuation. Altcoins need to consolidate before taking off, as many altcoins have already fallen below previous major support levels, so it is advisable to go long near the previous resistance levels.
As for where the support is, the 4-hour high point from the previous rapid decline is naturally the support or resistance. Whether it's the 15-minute or 1-hour chart, the high points of the wave lines represent pressure, while the low points signify support.
However, if Bitcoin suddenly brakes and turns around near 107000, that would be a different story.
Currently, Bitcoin's short-term support is the previous high near 104500, and the major support is the previous resistance line at 102500.

Currently, the BTC daily chart is still in a bullish structure, and we are just experiencing a small-scale bearish trend. As long as the green zone in the screenshot does not have a daily candlestick close below it, it generally remains in a fluctuating upward trend.
Once it touches above 102600, there will be a lot of selling pressure. Only if the sustained buying exceeds the selling will it break through to a new high. The question is, who will buy a large amount above 103000? No one knows what the future holds. After all, every bull market has unexpected events that occur from time to time, which are beyond our expectations.
The first support point is around 945, the second is 963, and the third is 992. The bottom is continuously rising, and the breakthrough to a new high is probably not far away. However, there is also a possibility of dropping back down after breaking a new high.
As for ETH, the daily bullish trend has been broken, and the attempt to recover has failed. The small-scale highs and lows are gradually decreasing, leading to a fluctuating market. If BTC fails to break a new high, it will be difficult for ETH to surge back to 4000.
There is a significant amount of selling pressure around 4010, and the pressure is still quite apparent.

A new day, the good mood came to an abrupt end as BTC went from bad to worse.
BTC has fallen below 963 in 4H, and the 15-minute K-line failed to fall back after rushing up to 97 several times.
Currently, BTC has broken the bullish trend line of 907-935, and is doubly suppressed by the previous downward trend line of 996, proving that 97 is the biggest resistance to the current rise.
Friends who want to go long can ambush near 929-935 with a stop loss. Those who want to go short can go near 97-975, and try not to chase the short.
ETH has fallen back to the bullish trend line of 3016, the first support is 3465, the second support is near 3360, and the extreme support is 3250. The big pressure is in the range of 3760-3780. The short-term pressure line is near 3710.
SOL is still consolidating at 200-220, and it is likely to be a back-and-forth market.

Morning analysis.
BTC daily line has not fallen below the previous 99660 downtrend line, after all, resistance has switched positions, with a closing price around 973, the overall direction is still a bullish trend. It has repeatedly pierced down to 94-95, with two extreme piercings to 90-91, proving that the main force's recent ultimate shakeout strategy is very skilled.
Resistance above: 985, 996, 100500.
Support below: 963, extreme entity support at 947. The two inverted hammers indicate that it is only suitable for high shorting recently, even if it is a bullish trend; for example, if you go long at 945, the stop-loss should be around 4000 points, making a small profit. If you short around 100,000, a stop-loss of 1000 points is enough.
Attention! Attention! ETH has fallen below the bullish trend on the daily line, entering a long-term consolidation area. The previous support of the bullish trend was around 3780; if it falls below, it will enter a fluctuation zone.
Resistance above: 3780, 3870, 3920.
Support below: 3615, 3502, 3450.
SOL has fallen below 220-225, entering a consolidation area of 200-225 for a period of time.
BNB daily line was unable to recover 690, and the selling pressure is quite strong.
Resistance above: 720, 760.
Support below: 680, 645, 615.

Good news, BTC broke through 10W.
Bad news, after waking up, the long position was stopped.
What will be the trend of BTC next? How to analyze this market?
I don’t know how many longs who couldn’t control their position desires were blown up by BTC’s heaven and earth needle.
According to Wyckoff, there are two explanations for this market of Bitcoin.
1. The ultimate shock, the bull market relay. The goal of the dog dealer is to kill all the chips in hand, and the heaven and earth needle will cause panic selling. If Bitcoin returns to 10W in the next period of time, this will be confirmed.
2. This is a distribution market, the dog dealer wants to run away, the bull market is temporarily terminated, and it will turn to bearish for a period of time. This possibility is the greatest. Because the previous 99660 downward trend line has re-effective.
Intraday analysis, if Bitcoin cannot break through 99660 again during the day, it will further confirm the distribution. Wyckoff said that the rebound after the high fall does not break the previous pressure level is a signal of turning to bearish.
If you are shorting from 10W, hold it boldly and protect your capital loss. When it returns to 10W without a pullback, exit the short position.
Since the daily line did not recover 98 today, the situation of Bitcoin falling from 10W has not yet ended. 98 becomes a pressure point again. If there is a rebound during the day, you can go short at 98 and lose money at 985. Go up to 992~996 and then take it back. This is a big pressure after the high and fall.
The short-term support below returns to the previous trend of 946. As long as the daily closing price is lower than 946~952, it will go to 85.
If Bitcoin comes down from above 97 during the day, observe whether 946 has a large volume. If the rebound does not break the previous resistance of 963, hold the short position and protect your capital loss.
If it reaches 946 first, you can bet on a rebound, with the target of 98, 996.
In the worst case, Bitcoin will go sideways near 97 during the day, not rushing to 99660, nor going below 94. This may cause the previous trend of 6W falling to 5W2.
The second cake is a bit strong, and the desire to break 4000 is very strong. It is still in the rising channel. But if the big cake wants to go down, 3600 will not be guaranteed.
3912~3936 range can be shorted during the day, and it is still possible to explore around 3769.
There will be the last non-agricultural data of this year in the evening, and the fluctuation will be more intense. Everyone should pay attention to the risks.