过眼云烟
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Since BTC has already broken through the bullish trend at 89, the opportunity for intraday bulls to escape is at 935 and 948. Ethereum is estimated to need to escape around 2624. The daily KDJ and RSI for BTC are still a little short of reaching oversold, and it is estimated there will be one more drop.
Wall Street dogs are probably scared by Trump and Musk, the SEC is being audited, and they are risking everything to sell off.
Wall Street dogs are probably scared by Trump and Musk, the SEC is being audited, and they are risking everything to sell off.
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This round of the bull market is approaching the 1000-1100 day cycle.
As the saying goes, three years of bull market and one year of bear market, since the bull market started around November 2022, BTC has risen from 15,000 to 110,000, a full increase of about seven times.
2025 is very likely to be the last year of the bull market. If we follow a 3-year cycle, will the bull market end around October this year?
The currently more complicated international situation has created a tightrope situation for the global financial market; previously, Trump imposed tariffs on neighboring countries, which may exacerbate domestic inflation risks.
Therefore, the attitude of the Fed Chairman towards interest rate cuts may not be so resolute.
Later, a company called DeepSeek has stripped the fig leaf off all the American tech giants, and now investors are no longer favoring tech stocks in the US; funds are fleeing, and Wall Street has to bleed to protect the market, but whether it can stabilize the panic selling in the short term remains a question mark.
2025 is very likely to be the last year of the bull market. If we follow a 3-year cycle, will the bull market end around October this year?
The currently more complicated international situation has created a tightrope situation for the global financial market; previously, Trump imposed tariffs on neighboring countries, which may exacerbate domestic inflation risks.
Therefore, the attitude of the Fed Chairman towards interest rate cuts may not be so resolute.
Later, a company called DeepSeek has stripped the fig leaf off all the American tech giants, and now investors are no longer favoring tech stocks in the US; funds are fleeing, and Wall Street has to bleed to protect the market, but whether it can stabilize the panic selling in the short term remains a question mark.
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Why can’t the junk ether go up to 3436?
Why can’t it go up after breaking through the downward trend line? The alt season has never come?
Blame BTC’s decline for not going up?
Why do a lot of people say it’s awesome and profitable when it goes up. But it’s like a mute when it goes down?
I said a few days ago that if you want to see ether explode, you must first see its ETH/BTC exchange rate break through 0.03258 and stand firmly.
As for whether it can continue to break through, no one can be sure. When it reaches the pressure level, it’s okay to make a thin stop loss short, 3430-3450. There is a short-term support below ether, near 3252, and the support near 3220 is stronger.
For all currencies, breaking through the downward trend line does not necessarily mean a V-reversal. Instead, this downward trend line will form a support for subsequent declines. Breaking through does not necessarily mean that this line is invalid.
Why can’t it go up after breaking through the downward trend line? The alt season has never come?
Blame BTC’s decline for not going up?
Why do a lot of people say it’s awesome and profitable when it goes up. But it’s like a mute when it goes down?
I said a few days ago that if you want to see ether explode, you must first see its ETH/BTC exchange rate break through 0.03258 and stand firmly.
As for whether it can continue to break through, no one can be sure. When it reaches the pressure level, it’s okay to make a thin stop loss short, 3430-3450. There is a short-term support below ether, near 3252, and the support near 3220 is stronger.
For all currencies, breaking through the downward trend line does not necessarily mean a V-reversal. Instead, this downward trend line will form a support for subsequent declines. Breaking through does not necessarily mean that this line is invalid.
It's not because ETH is too bad, but because BTC is too strong.
Good evening everyone. The Spring Festival is coming soon, wishing everyone prosperity.
If you want to see a significant increase in ETH, you must first look at its ETH/BTC exchange rate to see if it can strongly break through the price of 0.03256; otherwise, everything is just talk.
From a realistic perspective, because Vitalik's Ethereum team belongs to Canada and not the U.S. financial circle, strictly speaking, U.S. tycoons or institutions can only suck blood from it and cannot spend money to help Ethereum rally, which is called capital outflow. Do you understand?
If Trump could really classify Canada as a state, this problem would be easily solved. 😅
So you see Wall Street only cares about BTC and SOL, therefore, BTC is too strong, making it difficult for ETH's exchange rate to rise. Additionally, the exchange rate has been below the MACD zero line for a long time.
This requires a long period of consolidation, and it can only rely on Vitalik's side to find a way. However, once there is a rally, U.S. institutions will sell, which is called sucking blood, creating a vicious cycle.
You can see on the BTC side, which U.S. institution has cleared its BTC holdings? Last time it was Germany, which involves more complex political issues. BlackRock sold, but they keep buying.
Good evening everyone. The Spring Festival is coming soon, wishing everyone prosperity.
If you want to see a significant increase in ETH, you must first look at its ETH/BTC exchange rate to see if it can strongly break through the price of 0.03256; otherwise, everything is just talk.
From a realistic perspective, because Vitalik's Ethereum team belongs to Canada and not the U.S. financial circle, strictly speaking, U.S. tycoons or institutions can only suck blood from it and cannot spend money to help Ethereum rally, which is called capital outflow. Do you understand?
If Trump could really classify Canada as a state, this problem would be easily solved. 😅
So you see Wall Street only cares about BTC and SOL, therefore, BTC is too strong, making it difficult for ETH's exchange rate to rise. Additionally, the exchange rate has been below the MACD zero line for a long time.
This requires a long period of consolidation, and it can only rely on Vitalik's side to find a way. However, once there is a rally, U.S. institutions will sell, which is called sucking blood, creating a vicious cycle.
You can see on the BTC side, which U.S. institution has cleared its BTC holdings? Last time it was Germany, which involves more complex political issues. BlackRock sold, but they keep buying.
Happy New Year!
颜驰Bit
--
🧧Today is Chinese New Year, I wish all my overseas fans a happy New Year and a happy year of the snake!#BNB
happy new year
颜驰Bit
--
🧧Today is Chinese New Year, I wish all my overseas fans a happy New Year and a happy year of the snake!#BNB
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If BTC cannot recover above 996, there is still a spike. Those who want to go long can go around 973, benchmarking the Ethereum 2990-3016 mark.
Does 973 look familiar? The last round of 102700 killed 89 relay rebound.
If it goes down again, it will return to the 95 consolidation zone. 953-958 is a strong support. Benchmarking the Ethereum 2900 mark.
Does 973 look familiar? The last round of 102700 killed 89 relay rebound.
If it goes down again, it will return to the 95 consolidation zone. 953-958 is a strong support. Benchmarking the Ethereum 2900 mark.
See original
It's not because ETH is too bad, but because BTC is too strong.
Good evening everyone. The Spring Festival is coming soon, wishing everyone prosperity.
If you want to see a significant increase in ETH, you must first look at its ETH/BTC exchange rate to see if it can strongly break through the price of 0.03256; otherwise, everything is just talk.
From a realistic perspective, because Vitalik's Ethereum team belongs to Canada and not the U.S. financial circle, strictly speaking, U.S. tycoons or institutions can only suck blood from it and cannot spend money to help Ethereum rally, which is called capital outflow. Do you understand?
If Trump could really classify Canada as a state, this problem would be easily solved. 😅
So you see Wall Street only cares about BTC and SOL, therefore, BTC is too strong, making it difficult for ETH's exchange rate to rise. Additionally, the exchange rate has been below the MACD zero line for a long time.
This requires a long period of consolidation, and it can only rely on Vitalik's side to find a way. However, once there is a rally, U.S. institutions will sell, which is called sucking blood, creating a vicious cycle.
You can see on the BTC side, which U.S. institution has cleared its BTC holdings? Last time it was Germany, which involves more complex political issues. BlackRock sold, but they keep buying.
Good evening everyone. The Spring Festival is coming soon, wishing everyone prosperity.
If you want to see a significant increase in ETH, you must first look at its ETH/BTC exchange rate to see if it can strongly break through the price of 0.03256; otherwise, everything is just talk.
From a realistic perspective, because Vitalik's Ethereum team belongs to Canada and not the U.S. financial circle, strictly speaking, U.S. tycoons or institutions can only suck blood from it and cannot spend money to help Ethereum rally, which is called capital outflow. Do you understand?
If Trump could really classify Canada as a state, this problem would be easily solved. 😅
So you see Wall Street only cares about BTC and SOL, therefore, BTC is too strong, making it difficult for ETH's exchange rate to rise. Additionally, the exchange rate has been below the MACD zero line for a long time.
This requires a long period of consolidation, and it can only rely on Vitalik's side to find a way. However, once there is a rally, U.S. institutions will sell, which is called sucking blood, creating a vicious cycle.
You can see on the BTC side, which U.S. institution has cleared its BTC holdings? Last time it was Germany, which involves more complex political issues. BlackRock sold, but they keep buying.
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The major trend has been set, and BTC has drawn a large arch on the daily chart!
The super large level is a double top at 106400! Currently, 102500 is a triple top, and below it is a triple bottom at 92 (excluding the spike at 90000). This sets the upper and lower boundaries for the next two to three months.
99900 is the last defense line for the short-term bulls in Bitcoin. Previously, I mentioned at @Old九歌 that if it breaks and goes up to 1027 before coming down, it will be considered a formation. Additionally, MACD has not accelerated to keep up with the rise to 106400, and the daily line is very close to the 0 axis. The 3-day MACD is diverging, which is a dangerous signal!!
You can refer to the trend of 73 from last year. If the daily line's body breaks below 92 and cannot recover, it may not be as simple as a spike to 89.
The daily line has had two consecutive bullish candles in the range of 945–100500, and after each series of consecutive bullish candles, it usually returns to the starting point of the bullish candles within a certain period. Therefore, 99900 is the lifeline for the bulls in Bitcoin.
On the short term, the range of 102500–102800, with a reduction of positions around 100000 to protect capital, the bears can operate in this range with a defense of 500 points.
ETH is getting closer to the descending trend line, and the points for shorting are getting lower. Those who want to short can do so in the range of 3252–3275, provided that Bitcoin does not reach 102500 during the day.
If Bitcoin cannot even rebound to 102500–103000 during the day, all long positions should exit.
The super large level is a double top at 106400! Currently, 102500 is a triple top, and below it is a triple bottom at 92 (excluding the spike at 90000). This sets the upper and lower boundaries for the next two to three months.
99900 is the last defense line for the short-term bulls in Bitcoin. Previously, I mentioned at @Old九歌 that if it breaks and goes up to 1027 before coming down, it will be considered a formation. Additionally, MACD has not accelerated to keep up with the rise to 106400, and the daily line is very close to the 0 axis. The 3-day MACD is diverging, which is a dangerous signal!!
You can refer to the trend of 73 from last year. If the daily line's body breaks below 92 and cannot recover, it may not be as simple as a spike to 89.
The daily line has had two consecutive bullish candles in the range of 945–100500, and after each series of consecutive bullish candles, it usually returns to the starting point of the bullish candles within a certain period. Therefore, 99900 is the lifeline for the bulls in Bitcoin.
On the short term, the range of 102500–102800, with a reduction of positions around 100000 to protect capital, the bears can operate in this range with a defense of 500 points.
ETH is getting closer to the descending trend line, and the points for shorting are getting lower. Those who want to short can do so in the range of 3252–3275, provided that Bitcoin does not reach 102500 during the day.
If Bitcoin cannot even rebound to 102500–103000 during the day, all long positions should exit.
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Good afternoon everyone, let's talk about some off-topic discussions this time.
ETH VS SOL, as a result, Ethereum was directly abandoned by institutions and large holders, while BTC is heading towards new highs, and Ethereum is still hovering around 3300.
Why did SOL strongly reverse the bearish structure? Ever since Trump and SOL started making moves, SOL has skyrocketed. One reason I can think of might be related to Trump's promise to the SOL team to approve the ETF spot during his term.
After breaking the new high, there are no bottlenecks above anymore. As an old investor, if I missed it, I just missed it; I can't chase it, and I won't short it either.
Back to Ethereum, it is garbage as it is, but there was still hype around the Prague upgrade in the first half of the year. If it returns to around 2900, spot buying is still possible, in batches 235 or 334. For example, one batch at 3033, another at 2960, and a third at 28XX, then just let the rest sit.
ETH VS SOL, as a result, Ethereum was directly abandoned by institutions and large holders, while BTC is heading towards new highs, and Ethereum is still hovering around 3300.
Why did SOL strongly reverse the bearish structure? Ever since Trump and SOL started making moves, SOL has skyrocketed. One reason I can think of might be related to Trump's promise to the SOL team to approve the ETF spot during his term.
After breaking the new high, there are no bottlenecks above anymore. As an old investor, if I missed it, I just missed it; I can't chase it, and I won't short it either.
Back to Ethereum, it is garbage as it is, but there was still hype around the Prague upgrade in the first half of the year. If it returns to around 2900, spot buying is still possible, in batches 235 or 334. For example, one batch at 3033, another at 2960, and a third at 28XX, then just let the rest sit.
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At present, the price of Bread is rising in the 4h bottom divergence, and it will soon cross the zero axis, and it is ready to finish. KDJ is overbought.
For those who want to short, Bread has two points.
983, 995, at 983, 995, you should short even if you are wrong, and the stop loss should be thinner. Because at these two points, those who buy the bottom during the decline will be relieved.
The two Breads will be synchronized with Bread.
At present, the volume and price of Bread in 4h diverge. In the short term, if Bread falls back to 963 and does not break, go long at 963 on the left, and the target is 983.
If the 4h closing line is lower than 963, it will not go up sideways, and go short near 96 on the right.
Note that if Bread rises directly without falling back, it is equivalent to squatting and jumping, and it will fall faster.
For those who want to short, Bread has two points.
983, 995, at 983, 995, you should short even if you are wrong, and the stop loss should be thinner. Because at these two points, those who buy the bottom during the decline will be relieved.
The two Breads will be synchronized with Bread.
At present, the volume and price of Bread in 4h diverge. In the short term, if Bread falls back to 963 and does not break, go long at 963 on the left, and the target is 983.
If the 4h closing line is lower than 963, it will not go up sideways, and go short near 96 on the right.
Note that if Bread rises directly without falling back, it is equivalent to squatting and jumping, and it will fall faster.
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Good afternoon everyone.
Let me briefly talk about the trend of the overall market BTC, and later I will post some analysis on long and short positions.
From the perspective of volume and price, yesterday's spike in BTC had a trading volume that was still far from half of the first pin bar, even less than the second pin bar. In addition, the daily chart shows three candlesticks with insufficient volume and price, confirming that BTC has not yet experienced a strong reversal. It is important to note that the doji candlestick is a sign of weakness, indicating weak performance in both upward and downward movements, showing neither significant gains nor losses. For all those bottom-fishing in spot trading and going long, you should decide for yourselves.
ETH requires special attention, as the daily level has clearly broken through the previous 30XX upward trend line, and it will take a considerable amount of time to consolidate before recovering.
When will BTC have a strong reversal? On the weekly level, if there is a second test next week that does not break the new low and is higher than this week's high, this structure within Wyckoff is called a low-level isolated pivot point, which may give you the opportunity to see BTC retest 995.
Let me briefly talk about the trend of the overall market BTC, and later I will post some analysis on long and short positions.
From the perspective of volume and price, yesterday's spike in BTC had a trading volume that was still far from half of the first pin bar, even less than the second pin bar. In addition, the daily chart shows three candlesticks with insufficient volume and price, confirming that BTC has not yet experienced a strong reversal. It is important to note that the doji candlestick is a sign of weakness, indicating weak performance in both upward and downward movements, showing neither significant gains nor losses. For all those bottom-fishing in spot trading and going long, you should decide for yourselves.
ETH requires special attention, as the daily level has clearly broken through the previous 30XX upward trend line, and it will take a considerable amount of time to consolidate before recovering.
When will BTC have a strong reversal? On the weekly level, if there is a second test next week that does not break the new low and is higher than this week's high, this structure within Wyckoff is called a low-level isolated pivot point, which may give you the opportunity to see BTC retest 995.
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Brothers holding SOL can come and take a look.
Why is SOL so weak?
Why can't it go up after reaching 193?
Recently, some brothers have been frequently asking me about SOL, because the daily level of SOL has already fallen below the previous super cycle's high on the weekly downtrend line, so what else is there to look at?
Look at the chart, draw a trend line from the previous weekly top and see how many contact points there are, right? Now draw an upward trend line at 110.
According to the short-term bull support on the daily, it is 177, but note that it is short-term, with an overall bearish trend. Extreme support is at 160-162.
If SOL cannot recover above 193 on the weekly level, it will enter a long period of consolidation.
If Bitcoin really goes to 80k, SOL will accelerate its decline.
Why is SOL so weak?
Why can't it go up after reaching 193?
Recently, some brothers have been frequently asking me about SOL, because the daily level of SOL has already fallen below the previous super cycle's high on the weekly downtrend line, so what else is there to look at?
Look at the chart, draw a trend line from the previous weekly top and see how many contact points there are, right? Now draw an upward trend line at 110.
According to the short-term bull support on the daily, it is 177, but note that it is short-term, with an overall bearish trend. Extreme support is at 160-162.
If SOL cannot recover above 193 on the weekly level, it will enter a long period of consolidation.
If Bitcoin really goes to 80k, SOL will accelerate its decline.
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Emergency! Emergency! Please pay attention to the risks, fellow air force brothers.
Currently, BTC has a rare 1-hour roasted whole lamb K-line, which means that all the selling orders have been absorbed by the main force. The last recent situation occurred around November 11, when more than 10 1-hour K-lines were positive lines, and the price rose from 82 to around 9W at that time.
At present, the 1h multiple bottom divergence of the big cake has been completed, and the second cake has not yet been completed. The big cake is bold to go long when it falls back.
The short-term support of the big cake is around 94, and 928 has become an extreme support. You can find opportunities to do it in the range of 928-935. I don’t know if the dog dealer will give you an opportunity. The big cake market has already told you that I have broken through 928. Don’t short me in a place where there is no village in front and no store behind.
The pressure on the big cake is 957, 962, and 973.
The 4h of the second cake could not be broken by anything near 3322. It has become a big resistance at present. Those who want to go long or short need to observe.
For the second cake, you can go long near 3250 and 3220, just pay attention to the stop loss of the position. The pressure is 3322, 3384, and 3416.
Currently, BTC has a rare 1-hour roasted whole lamb K-line, which means that all the selling orders have been absorbed by the main force. The last recent situation occurred around November 11, when more than 10 1-hour K-lines were positive lines, and the price rose from 82 to around 9W at that time.
At present, the 1h multiple bottom divergence of the big cake has been completed, and the second cake has not yet been completed. The big cake is bold to go long when it falls back.
The short-term support of the big cake is around 94, and 928 has become an extreme support. You can find opportunities to do it in the range of 928-935. I don’t know if the dog dealer will give you an opportunity. The big cake market has already told you that I have broken through 928. Don’t short me in a place where there is no village in front and no store behind.
The pressure on the big cake is 957, 962, and 973.
The 4h of the second cake could not be broken by anything near 3322. It has become a big resistance at present. Those who want to go long or short need to observe.
For the second cake, you can go long near 3250 and 3220, just pay attention to the stop loss of the position. The pressure is 3322, 3384, and 3416.
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Today's market analysis.
Bitcoin has been severely stabbed in the back by its ally Nasdaq, dropping over 6000 points in one day.
Bitcoin is likely to continue to dip; after the entity breaks through the rising trend at 915, 97300 and 98300 have become major resistance levels.
Currently, the main focus is on shorting during the rebound, observing whether 97300 and 98300 can be approached during the day; if they do, a short position can be initiated.
BTC has two support levels below, but it is uncertain if they can hold up the rebound,
95300 and 94000.
ETH has returned to the 3500~3200 range, with support at 3302 and 3220, and resistance at 3412, 3521, 3550.
As long as Bitcoin does not fall below 915, altcoin spot purchases are still viable, near the previous low.
If it breaks below, it's best to wait and see; once it reaches the 8 opening, all altcoins will die.
Bitcoin has been severely stabbed in the back by its ally Nasdaq, dropping over 6000 points in one day.
Bitcoin is likely to continue to dip; after the entity breaks through the rising trend at 915, 97300 and 98300 have become major resistance levels.
Currently, the main focus is on shorting during the rebound, observing whether 97300 and 98300 can be approached during the day; if they do, a short position can be initiated.
BTC has two support levels below, but it is uncertain if they can hold up the rebound,
95300 and 94000.
ETH has returned to the 3500~3200 range, with support at 3302 and 3220, and resistance at 3412, 3521, 3550.
As long as Bitcoin does not fall below 915, altcoin spot purchases are still viable, near the previous low.
If it breaks below, it's best to wait and see; once it reaches the 8 opening, all altcoins will die.
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January 7th BTC Market Analysis.
Can Bitcoin still rise? At what points should we go long, and at what positions should we go short?
Bitcoin can still rise! But the extent won't be that large.
The 3-day or weekly candlestick at 108 shows a large-bodied dark cloud cover, which is a signal of a peak in a larger cycle.
The high points of a rebound after an overselling are generally resistance zones. Why did it drop around 102800? You can think about it by observing the market yourself.
Currently, the 3-day KDJ has formed a golden cross, the daily line has a golden cross, and the daily BOLL is widening with an upward trend. Although it has reached an overbought condition, with a strong bullish trend, it may rise a little more.
The first short-term support is at 101200, and the second support is around 100000.
Resistance: short-term resistance at 102000, 102700~103300.
Major resistance around 104600 and 105300; short positions should be around this area.
For those wanting to go long, 100000 and 101200 are both viable. Last night, it tested 101200 once; if it comes down again without breaking it, you can consider entering.
Can Bitcoin still rise? At what points should we go long, and at what positions should we go short?
Bitcoin can still rise! But the extent won't be that large.
The 3-day or weekly candlestick at 108 shows a large-bodied dark cloud cover, which is a signal of a peak in a larger cycle.
The high points of a rebound after an overselling are generally resistance zones. Why did it drop around 102800? You can think about it by observing the market yourself.
Currently, the 3-day KDJ has formed a golden cross, the daily line has a golden cross, and the daily BOLL is widening with an upward trend. Although it has reached an overbought condition, with a strong bullish trend, it may rise a little more.
The first short-term support is at 101200, and the second support is around 100000.
Resistance: short-term resistance at 102000, 102700~103300.
Major resistance around 104600 and 105300; short positions should be around this area.
For those wanting to go long, 100000 and 101200 are both viable. Last night, it tested 101200 once; if it comes down again without breaking it, you can consider entering.
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December 31st, the last market analysis of this year.
Whether it’s BTC, ETH, or SOL, the short-term strength is all a false rise.
When you see a large number of profit masters who previously made a fortune in the market are silent in the square, you know where the bull market has gone.
Why? Because most people's psychology is bullish; they can hold long positions but dare not short.
BTC, ETH, and SOL are all in a downward trend, whether on the three-day, weekly, or monthly charts.
The three-day chart is in a shrinking volume downtrend, and last week BTC left a long upper shadow, proving that the main force does not have a strong intention to push the price up.
From a technical perspective, the MACD on the three-day and weekly charts continues to open downward, and the KDJ is not yet in the oversold territory.
There are major weekly pressures and supports.
BTC: Resistance 1: 98300, Resistance 2: 99550, Resistance 3: 102800
Support 1: 90800, Support 2: 87900, Support 3: 83500
ETH: Resistance 1: 3530, Resistance 2: 3710, Resistance 3: 3860
Support 1: 3200, Support 2: 3040, Support 3: 2866
SOL: Resistance 1: 202, Resistance 2: 215, Resistance 3: 233
Support 1: 177, Support 2: 164, Support 3: 151
Short-term intraday resistance and support.
BTC: Resistance 1: 94700, Resistance 2: 96600
Support 1: 91200, Support 2: 90800
ETH: Resistance 1: 3430, Resistance 2: 3501
Support 1: 3295, Support 2: 3260
SOL: Resistance 1: 196.5, Resistance 2: 201.8
Support 1: 185.9, Support 2: 180.6
Short-term trading is mostly a scalp behavior, and volatile markets often show signs of reversal. The main trend is to rebound and short.
That's all! Wishing you prosperity!
Whether it’s BTC, ETH, or SOL, the short-term strength is all a false rise.
When you see a large number of profit masters who previously made a fortune in the market are silent in the square, you know where the bull market has gone.
Why? Because most people's psychology is bullish; they can hold long positions but dare not short.
BTC, ETH, and SOL are all in a downward trend, whether on the three-day, weekly, or monthly charts.
The three-day chart is in a shrinking volume downtrend, and last week BTC left a long upper shadow, proving that the main force does not have a strong intention to push the price up.
From a technical perspective, the MACD on the three-day and weekly charts continues to open downward, and the KDJ is not yet in the oversold territory.
There are major weekly pressures and supports.
BTC: Resistance 1: 98300, Resistance 2: 99550, Resistance 3: 102800
Support 1: 90800, Support 2: 87900, Support 3: 83500
ETH: Resistance 1: 3530, Resistance 2: 3710, Resistance 3: 3860
Support 1: 3200, Support 2: 3040, Support 3: 2866
SOL: Resistance 1: 202, Resistance 2: 215, Resistance 3: 233
Support 1: 177, Support 2: 164, Support 3: 151
Short-term intraday resistance and support.
BTC: Resistance 1: 94700, Resistance 2: 96600
Support 1: 91200, Support 2: 90800
ETH: Resistance 1: 3430, Resistance 2: 3501
Support 1: 3295, Support 2: 3260
SOL: Resistance 1: 196.5, Resistance 2: 201.8
Support 1: 185.9, Support 2: 180.6
Short-term trading is mostly a scalp behavior, and volatile markets often show signs of reversal. The main trend is to rebound and short.
That's all! Wishing you prosperity!
See original
Why did BTC fall? Isn't it normal that it can't go up after reaching the resistance level?
If you want to go long, pay attention to the risks, because the KDJ of 4h and daily lines has not reached oversold. If the 4h closing line of Bitcoin is below 95, it will be seen at 92-93. Only when the daily line of Bitcoin reaches oversold will there be a strong rebound. Beware of the early morning crash of the old M. If 92 is maintained, it will be a triple bottom. If it cannot be maintained, 9w is just around the corner.
If the 4h closing line of Bitcoin is below 3300, it will follow the Bitcoin dive.
If you want to go long, pay attention to the risks, because the KDJ of 4h and daily lines has not reached oversold. If the 4h closing line of Bitcoin is below 95, it will be seen at 92-93. Only when the daily line of Bitcoin reaches oversold will there be a strong rebound. Beware of the early morning crash of the old M. If 92 is maintained, it will be a triple bottom. If it cannot be maintained, 9w is just around the corner.
If the 4h closing line of Bitcoin is below 3300, it will follow the Bitcoin dive.
BTC Morning Analysis.
The closing price of BTC is 957, which is not good news. The volume yesterday was smaller than the previous two days' bullish candles, but it almost erased the gains, proving that the main players and the bears have reached a consensus.
After a drop to 95 in the evening, it rebounded to the previous resistance of 965 and then fell again, proving that the shorts between 995 and 999 have not yet covered their positions, and with insufficient buying at 95, today's BOLL daily chart is opening downwards, and the daily MACD fast line has not yet turned around. The short-term moving averages are also forming a downward trend. In the short term, we need to see if a rebound can form around 936 to 94 to reach 95; if it goes down further, it will touch the edge of the range, which I previously subjectively considered a double bottom at 92. If a rebound cannot form here, we may see 908.
If it rebounds to 965-973 during the day, a short position can be taken.
The short-term extreme support for BTC is 887, and if it really drops to 90k, it will hit hard.
The closing price of BTC is 957, which is not good news. The volume yesterday was smaller than the previous two days' bullish candles, but it almost erased the gains, proving that the main players and the bears have reached a consensus.
After a drop to 95 in the evening, it rebounded to the previous resistance of 965 and then fell again, proving that the shorts between 995 and 999 have not yet covered their positions, and with insufficient buying at 95, today's BOLL daily chart is opening downwards, and the daily MACD fast line has not yet turned around. The short-term moving averages are also forming a downward trend. In the short term, we need to see if a rebound can form around 936 to 94 to reach 95; if it goes down further, it will touch the edge of the range, which I previously subjectively considered a double bottom at 92. If a rebound cannot form here, we may see 908.
If it rebounds to 965-973 during the day, a short position can be taken.
The short-term extreme support for BTC is 887, and if it really drops to 90k, it will hit hard.
See original
BTC Morning Analysis.
The closing price of BTC is 957, which is not good news. The volume yesterday was smaller than the previous two days' bullish candles, but it almost erased the gains, proving that the main players and the bears have reached a consensus.
After a drop to 95 in the evening, it rebounded to the previous resistance of 965 and then fell again, proving that the shorts between 995 and 999 have not yet covered their positions, and with insufficient buying at 95, today's BOLL daily chart is opening downwards, and the daily MACD fast line has not yet turned around. The short-term moving averages are also forming a downward trend. In the short term, we need to see if a rebound can form around 936 to 94 to reach 95; if it goes down further, it will touch the edge of the range, which I previously subjectively considered a double bottom at 92. If a rebound cannot form here, we may see 908.
If it rebounds to 965-973 during the day, a short position can be taken.
The short-term extreme support for BTC is 887, and if it really drops to 90k, it will hit hard.
The closing price of BTC is 957, which is not good news. The volume yesterday was smaller than the previous two days' bullish candles, but it almost erased the gains, proving that the main players and the bears have reached a consensus.
After a drop to 95 in the evening, it rebounded to the previous resistance of 965 and then fell again, proving that the shorts between 995 and 999 have not yet covered their positions, and with insufficient buying at 95, today's BOLL daily chart is opening downwards, and the daily MACD fast line has not yet turned around. The short-term moving averages are also forming a downward trend. In the short term, we need to see if a rebound can form around 936 to 94 to reach 95; if it goes down further, it will touch the edge of the range, which I previously subjectively considered a double bottom at 92. If a rebound cannot form here, we may see 908.
If it rebounds to 965-973 during the day, a short position can be taken.
The short-term extreme support for BTC is 887, and if it really drops to 90k, it will hit hard.
See original
Carving the boat to seek the sword: Is it really possible for ETH to return to 2800? !
From the Fibonacci of the first new highs at the beginning of the last bull market and this bull market, it was found that from the beginning of Ethereum's 881 bull market to 4093 in the first half of this year, the deep wash returned to the 0.618 (2100 iron bottom) ~ 0.382 (2866) range for a very long time to absorb funds. The last bull market also broke through 0.382 and then broke through the previous high all the way.
Conclusion: The trends of these two bull markets are surprisingly similar.
At present, the Ethereum disk broke through the previous high of 4093 in this bull market and then fell back to test 0.236 (3335). The closing price last week was 3281, which has broken through 0.236. Now it is an oversold rebound. It is not so fast to fall back to 2800. The rebound is stronger than BTC because of the large buying volume.
Now there is a high probability that Bitcoin will rise again to hit 100500~102500. If it is benchmarked against Ethereum, it is around 3900.
If Bitcoin cannot continue to rise after rushing to around 102,500, it will have a deep correction.
If Bitcoin falls 10% from around 100,000, it will just reach 90,000. Ethereum will have to fall at least 15-20% and return to the 3,100 mark.
If Bitcoin falls another 10% from 90,000, it will just start at 80,000 as you said. It is not impossible for Ethereum to fall another 20%. Isn't 2,800 reached?
If it really comes to this moment, it is estimated that many people will go all-in in the spot market, because as long as there is a rate cut next year, the bull market will still be there, and with the Prague upgrade next year, the possibility of hitting 4,300 is even greater.
2,800~4,300, 1,500 points of spot increase, nearly 50%. As for the new high of 4,800? Only if Bitcoin conducts a deep wash before the crazy bull comes, there will be a possibility of 5,000.
As for what others say about 8,000, get lost, few people can hold on to the end.
From the Fibonacci of the first new highs at the beginning of the last bull market and this bull market, it was found that from the beginning of Ethereum's 881 bull market to 4093 in the first half of this year, the deep wash returned to the 0.618 (2100 iron bottom) ~ 0.382 (2866) range for a very long time to absorb funds. The last bull market also broke through 0.382 and then broke through the previous high all the way.
Conclusion: The trends of these two bull markets are surprisingly similar.
At present, the Ethereum disk broke through the previous high of 4093 in this bull market and then fell back to test 0.236 (3335). The closing price last week was 3281, which has broken through 0.236. Now it is an oversold rebound. It is not so fast to fall back to 2800. The rebound is stronger than BTC because of the large buying volume.
Now there is a high probability that Bitcoin will rise again to hit 100500~102500. If it is benchmarked against Ethereum, it is around 3900.
If Bitcoin cannot continue to rise after rushing to around 102,500, it will have a deep correction.
If Bitcoin falls 10% from around 100,000, it will just reach 90,000. Ethereum will have to fall at least 15-20% and return to the 3,100 mark.
If Bitcoin falls another 10% from 90,000, it will just start at 80,000 as you said. It is not impossible for Ethereum to fall another 20%. Isn't 2,800 reached?
If it really comes to this moment, it is estimated that many people will go all-in in the spot market, because as long as there is a rate cut next year, the bull market will still be there, and with the Prague upgrade next year, the possibility of hitting 4,300 is even greater.
2,800~4,300, 1,500 points of spot increase, nearly 50%. As for the new high of 4,800? Only if Bitcoin conducts a deep wash before the crazy bull comes, there will be a possibility of 5,000.
As for what others say about 8,000, get lost, few people can hold on to the end.
See original
Looking for a sword in a boat: The connection between Fibonacci and the boundary between bull and bear markets
Warm reminder: Regardless of whether you are trading contracts or spot, any trade ultimately depends on yourself. Others' opinions should never be the basis for your FOMO trading. Learning may not guarantee you 100% profit, but at least it can help you avoid liquidation and being trapped.
Back to the point, BTC is about to close the monthly line, which is crucial and may determine the trend for the first half of next year!
Viewpoint 1: The bull market has temporarily halted, with 108353 (spot) being a small bull peak.
Looking for a sword in a boat, from the start of the bull market around BTC's 3800 to the small bull peak near 65000, Fibonacci weekly level has consolidated for a long time between 0.618 and 0.382, before hitting 65000 and retreating. After a long consolidation following a bearish monthly close, it may re-enter the 0.618 and 0.382 range for accumulation, starting a frenzy that hits 69000 before turning bearish.
Back to the point, BTC is about to close the monthly line, which is crucial and may determine the trend for the first half of next year!
Viewpoint 1: The bull market has temporarily halted, with 108353 (spot) being a small bull peak.
Looking for a sword in a boat, from the start of the bull market around BTC's 3800 to the small bull peak near 65000, Fibonacci weekly level has consolidated for a long time between 0.618 and 0.382, before hitting 65000 and retreating. After a long consolidation following a bearish monthly close, it may re-enter the 0.618 and 0.382 range for accumulation, starting a frenzy that hits 69000 before turning bearish.
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