Currently, the trend of hawthorn coins is in a daily downtrend. After this wave of downward movement that began last night ends, the short-term downward trend will temporarily come to a halt, and a slightly larger rebound (fan bounce) will occur. Some coins' prices have not yet broken below the low point from early this morning, so caution is advised against further declines; now is not the time to chase rebounds. If you are currently feeling lost in your operations and lack direction, consider following K's private messages to join the community. K's community can provide you with the best advice, create a perfect plan, and organize a set of methods corresponding to the trends, ultimately executing to achieve a turnaround.
Fewer rate cuts are still rate cuts. Although this is 'less bullish', the fact is that as long as interest rates continue to decline, liquidity will improve.
Once again, the emergence of bullish signals means that the bull market will continue. Unless there are rate hikes or no cuts, the macro economy should be favorable for digital assets.
In the period of market fluctuations, we should remain calm and avoid blind operations. The market fell in the afternoon, but did not break through, and then rebounded quickly, leaving almost no chance for short sellers in the whole process. In this case, we can only choose to take over at a high level. Such market conditions tell us that in future transactions, even short-term transactions, we need to be more cautious.
From the technical structure analysis, the price in the four-hour level line shows a volatile trend below the middle track, and the short and long volume appear alternately, causing the price to fluctuate within a certain range. This up and down pin-type market did not bring a substantial breakthrough. Although the long volume was arranged, it did not drive the price to achieve a strong breakthrough. This further confirmed the market's oscillating pattern. Therefore, in the evening trading, our thinking should keep the high-altitude strategy unchanged, continue to observe the dynamic changes of the market, and adjust the strategy according to the actual situation.
The most taboo in cryptocurrency investment is impatience. Only through fluctuations can a one-sided trend be brewed; only through pauses can we move forward better. Constantly running without stopping is unbearable for anyone!
The market is the same. After accumulating a large amount of following chips through fluctuations, it can then better drop or surge! Calmly waiting for the market to arrive.
The most taboo in cryptocurrency investment is impatience. Only through fluctuations can a one-sided trend be brewed; only through pauses can we move forward better. Constantly running without stopping is unbearable for anyone!
The market is the same. After accumulating a large amount of following chips through fluctuations, it can then better drop or surge! Calmly waiting for the market to arrive.
Is the core of trading probability? Now the daily routine is: Get up at 6:30 and go for a run, rain or shine. In the morning, I generally review yesterday's trades along with updates from the evening news, combining my positions and specific circumstances to make short-term trades or small fund operations to enhance my market intuition. Then I conduct a 2-hour review and summary, which is the most important task in the morning, aimed at making a good profit in the evening! After that, I write an investment-related article and post it on Zhihu, which serves as a record of my cryptocurrency trading life, so that when I grow old, I have a place to reminisce. I also like to write about investment experiences and insights, helping both myself and others. Trading cryptocurrencies is a form of practice; those who can endure loneliness will succeed. After 10 years of trading, I have developed the "Five Investment Rules + Ten Trading Rules + Stable Investment Plan" using real money in the crypto space. Regardless of whether you are a novice or an experienced trader, once you deeply understand the essence of these rules, I believe they will be helpful in your future trading endeavors. Five Investment Rules: 1. Consider and observe the project from multiple perspectives; do not follow the crowd blindly. There have been many scams in the crypto space, and once the founder runs away, it is impossible to hold them legally accountable. 2. Understand blockchain and related knowledge, and know the industry pain points that blockchain aims to solve before entering the crypto space. 3. For the project you want to invest in, make sure to have a comprehensive understanding, including whether the project truly uses blockchain technology, whether the founder has disclosed their identity and has a legitimate background, whether the business logic of the project is closely related to the tokens, whether there are similar projects in the same industry addressing the pain points, and if the project can generate profit in real life if successfully implemented. 4. If you cannot accurately assess the future prospects of a cryptocurrency, do not invest more than 20% of your assets in blockchain investments, and do not put all your eggs in one basket. 5. Quality projects will also experience ups and downs; maintain a calm mindset. For the investment projects you believe in, do not overly concern yourself with the price in the short term, but pay attention to whether the team's development progress aligns with the white paper. Additionally, only by holding for the long term can you ultimately achieve greater returns.
DOGE volatility is not too large, with significant resistance at the level of 0.351. Only by breaking through this resistance will there be a chance for a second surge. Upper resistance: 0.375, 0.396. Lower small-level pullback support: 0.328, 0.317, 0.3. If the four-hour closing line falls below 0.328, this rebound will end.
The essence of trading is a game against human nature
What you think trading is: staring at the charts, making trading decisions through various technical indicators and strategies, playing a game with the market.
But the reality of trading: it is about doing something that involves an ongoing game against oneself. We need to overcome our own greed, conquer fear, resist the urge to lock in profits while cutting losses, and avoid chasing trends.
All of this is actually unrelated to the market; it is all about ourselves. So rather than saying trading is a game in the market, it is more accurate to say we are constantly engaging in a game against our own human nature during the trading process. Trading goes against human nature. #CryptoCommunity ##Cryptocurrency#
Like athletes, a healthy body, stable emotions, a rock-solid mindset, and strict trading discipline are essential qualities for an excellent trader. Of course, the most important factors are still the era, industry benefits, and luck.
A successful complete trading cycle consists of: 70% mindset + 20% luck + 10% trading skills. You need to use your 70% mindset to catch the trends of the cycle, utilizing 20% luck and 10% trading skills to maximize profits within the captured cycle.
The Bitcoin bull market is not over! The 'December bear market' has only caused BTC to drop by 2%, and a rebound is on the way! The pressure brought by the 'December bear market' on Bitcoin is far less than expected, with BTC only slightly down by 2.4%, which is far from the historical standard monthly pullback range! Despite short-term selling pressure, in the fourth quarter, BTC's price still rose by nearly 50%! According to analysis by Titan of Crypto, as long as Bitcoin stays above the key upward trend line, the bull market is still on track! More notably, the realized price for short-term holders is close to $86,000, which means that once Bitcoin reaches this price level, the possibility of a strong rebound is extremely high. The fractal pattern of the BTC market is highly consistent with last year, and many market participants believe that 2024 will be a 'replica' of 2023.
From the daily level of Bitcoin/Ethereum, the current KDJ, MACD, and BOLL continue to resonate downward. However, the opening of the lower BOLL band is not very strong, which limits the short-term downside space. In the main chart, the MA5 and MA10 daily moving averages continue to apply downward pressure. At the 12-hour level, KDJ, MACD, and BOLL continue to resonate downward, with BOLL's decline being the most pronounced, and the lower band is in a continuous opening phase. In the main chart, the three-day moving averages continue to align in a bearish arrangement. In comparison between the daily and 12-hour charts, the bearish sentiment and technical pressure on the 12-hour chart are actually greater than that of the daily chart. Therefore, based on the technical hints provided by the 12-hour chart, the short-term trend for today is mainly sideways with a downward bias, and the operational approach suggests focusing on short positions during rebounds.
1. If the price of the currency drops sharply in the morning, it is a good opportunity, buy it quickly; if it rises wildly in the morning, you have to consider selling it, don't be greedy.
2. If the price of the currency rises sharply in the afternoon, let's not chase it, don't be trapped; if it drops sharply in the afternoon, don't rush, it's not too late to make a move the next day.
3. When it drops sharply in the morning, don't rush to sell, hold on! If the price of the currency does not rise or fall, then take a break and recuperate.
4. Don't rush to sell if the price of the currency does not rise, and don't rush to buy if there is no correction. If it keeps sideways, let's just watch the excitement and don't rush to trade.
5. When buying a currency, choose a negative line instead of a positive line; when selling, don't rush to sell a positive line, and sell it when it is a negative line.
6. Everyone says not to go against the trend, but I think that sometimes going against the trend is what a real hero does.
7. When the price of the currency is consolidating, don't rush, wait a while, and see the situation clearly before making a move.
8. If the price of the currency suddenly rises again after being sideways at a high level, it is a good time to sell it quickly, don't hesitate!
9. If you see the shape of a hammer cross star, you have to be careful. If you are fully invested, you have to consider the risks.
1. Actively unwind 1. If you buy the wrong one, especially if you buy a coin after it has risen sharply, you must be ruthless and sell it early to protect your wallet. There are many market opportunities, and the money is still there, so it is easy to turn things around. 2. If the coins you have are no longer valuable and are still falling in value, then check to see which other coins are going to rise and quickly switch to them, using the new profits to make up for the old losses. 3. If you are deeply trapped and think the price will continue to fall, sell part of it and buy it back when the price is lower. This way, your cost will be lower. 2. Passive Unwinding 1. If you don’t buy at a high price and you believe the market will be good, you can add some money in several times, but don’t add too many times, as timing is very important.
The impact of U.S. interest rate cuts on the cryptocurrency market such as Bitcoin:
Increased Investment Appeal The Federal Reserve's rate cuts will lower the yields on U.S. dollar assets, prompting investors seeking higher-yielding assets to turn their attention to cryptocurrencies, thereby increasing investment demand in the crypto market and driving up prices.
Highlighting Safe-Haven Attributes Cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin are often seen as safe-haven assets against economic uncertainty. Rate cuts are typically viewed as a signal of potential economic downturn risks. In this context, investors may allocate some assets to cryptocurrencies to hedge against potential economic or market risks.
Increased Market Liquidity Rate cuts will lead to increased global market liquidity, with some funds potentially flowing into the cryptocurrency market, thus enhancing trading activity, market liquidity, and trading volumes. However, this may also exacerbate market volatility.
Friendly Regulatory Environment After taking office, the administration has been committed to creating a friendly regulatory framework for cryptocurrencies, appointing relevant individuals to promote the development of the crypto industry. This is a favorable policy development for cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, enhancing market confidence and expectations.
Increased Demand for Cross-Border Transactions Exchange rate fluctuations triggered by rate cuts may lead investors to use cryptocurrencies for cross-border transactions to evade capital controls. The increase in cross-border capital flows will have a positive impact on the liquidity and trading activities in the crypto market!
The concubine has entered the stage of market manipulation, and during this stage, the concubine's gaze is as clear as can be. Everyone please observe how cleanly the daily candlestick chart moves, like an 18-year-old girl, fresh and refined. One obvious manifestation this week is that the concubine's turnover period has already passed, and the ETF continues to see a net inflow, which means that Wall Street's money keeps coming in, and some people have nearly finished selling off. Next, the concubine will accelerate the market manipulation. Those who exited a few weeks ago will find it hard to resist the soaring market and will choose to chase high again. Those who claim to have escaped the top will also chase high again; the same drama plays out in every bull market, which is the significance of accelerating the market. If you don't buy, then I will show you how it’s done and pull the market up to a level you can't endure. I still believe that the best strategy is to hold on and not move, stubbornly holding on without budging. The explosion of altcoins is also expected in the coming days. When Bitcoin rises, the concubine rises, and when the concubine rises, altcoins rise as well. Don't be fooled by how weak the altcoins appear now; they will rise quickly once they start. For those holding physical coins, I hope you all maintain some patience and have the steadiness of a sniper.
For friends participating in contract trading, I would like to analyze why you often lose more than you win. The reason is that when you make a long position, you often find that the stop-loss level you set is triggered, only to see a pullback or rebound afterwards. This situation seems to always get stuck at the most unfavorable point. Even without setting a stop-loss, the market seems to accurately hit your liquidation price. The core issue behind this is that you are actually engaging in a kind of gambling-like trading with the exchange. In such an environment, how much chance do you really have of winning?
Furthermore, the exchange can, to some extent, 'see' your hole cards. Even if you win ten small trades in a row, as long as you incur one significant loss, it can wipe out all your profits. This is why you always feel like you lose more than you win.
Currently, there is a strong bullish sentiment in the market, and there may still be a small profit to be made on the upside, but it is not a long-term situation. Analyzing the current one-hour chart shows that the Bollinger Bands are contracting downwards, and the candlestick chart, after a day of rising during the daytime, has only reached the middle band of the Bollinger Bands. After reaching the middle band, it has started to decline again, so it can be said that from tonight until the market opens on Monday, the price will basically oscillate between the middle and lower bands of the Bollinger Bands. If it breaks below the lower band, there is a very high possibility that the price will reach the position of 96,000.
Next week, the Federal Reserve is highly likely to implement its fourth interest rate cut of the year. The market anticipates a 25 basis point rate cut with a probability as high as 94.7%, almost certain. If this rate cut materializes, the target for the federal funds rate will be adjusted downward. Currently, it is between 4.5% and 4.75%. Assuming a 25 basis point cut next week, the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's main interest rate target for the entire year of 2025 is expected to remain at 4.5%.
From the perspective of government bond yields, U.S. two-year, ten-year, and thirty-year government bond yields may reach 4.55%, 4.65%, and 4.8%, respectively, by the end of 2025, all higher than the expected levels for the first quarter of next year. This series of changes reflects the market's expectations for adjustments in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy and predictions for future interest rate trends. The subsequent impacts will gradually manifest across various fields, including the macroeconomy and financial markets.
Thursday Big Pancake and Concubine From a technical structure perspective, on the daily level chart, a large bullish candle closes. On the four-hour level chart, the Bollinger Bands are opening, and the K-line is running above the middle track. The MACD dual lines are crossing upwards, with bullish energy bars expanding. On the one-hour level chart, the Bollinger Bands are opening, the K-line is running above the middle track, the MACD dual lines are converging, and bullish energy bars are contracting. The intraday trading strategy primarily focuses on low long positions, with high shorts as a supplement.