2024.12.19 Cryptocurrency Information Summary

1. Impact of the Fed's rate cut

The Fed cut interest rates but lowered expectations for next year, causing market panic. Powell's remarks caused shock, but there are also opportunities to get on board. The sharp drop at 4 am and 10 am and the rapid increase in liquidation volume are the best time to buy at the bottom. The current large liquidation volume has not appeared.

2. ETF status

ETF data is supported by the inflow of IBIT and ETHA funds. The net inflow this week is weaker than last week, which was foreseeable before the big drop last night. Because Americans are about to welcome Christmas, the market will not fluctuate much under the pre-holiday effect.

3. US stocks and blockchain stocks
The US stock market collapsed yesterday, and blockchain stocks were implicated. It is rumored that MSTR will have a lock-up period before next year's financial report. Michael Saylor said that after selling shares, he will raise funds to buy BTC, which will hedge against the negatives and the negatives. He may continue to buy coins.

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The recent market consolidation has left many extremely anxious, and the performance of altcoins has also been unsatisfactory. Everyone is concerned whether the altcoin season will return; I would like to make it clear: the rise of altcoins is absolutely impossible at this moment.

At least in the next one to two weeks, there will be no altcoin season. This is mainly because the main upward wave of Bitcoin has not yet ended.

The precise trigger for the altcoin bull market is in the later stages of Bitcoin's main upward wave.

In other words, only when Bitcoin enters the so-called 'garbage time' will altcoins have the opportunity to surge.

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SUI Ecosystem Highlights: Bluefin Trading Platform

SUI is undoubtedly the dark horse of the public blockchain space this year, with a strong price trend and remarkable achievements in ecosystem development. In the development of public chains, decentralized exchange platforms (DEX) are indispensable.

As a DEX on the SUI chain, Bluefin focuses on spot and derivative trading, accounting for over 90% of the contract trading volume in the SUI ecosystem, making it the king in the field of SUI derivatives.

Analogous to GMX for ARB, UNI for ETH, and Jupiter for SOLANA.

The BLUE token has seen a price increase of 3 times (peaking at 4 times) since its launch, and after a recent pullback, it is rising again, gathering momentum.

Its circulating market cap is less than 100m, and its value is clearly underestimated, with enormous growth potential and limitless possibilities, making it worthy of attention and anticipation.

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Opportunities Insights in a Market Decline

As the saying goes, opportunities often arise during downturns.

Firstly, the cryptocurrency market was dragged down by a significant drop in U.S. stocks last night, showing a widespread decline. Among them, MEME coins, SOL projects, and inscription sectors led the market losses.

Many MEME coins have seen their prices halved, and for these three types of crypto assets, it has been repeatedly emphasized that it is not advisable to intervene at this stage due to their high risks and poor stability.

Secondly, from the performance of different types of cryptocurrencies, strong sectors like DEFI and RWA have many coins that have not yet broken below previous lows, indicating relatively strong resilience and market toughness;

Meanwhile, weak coins have mostly fallen below their previous lows, showing clear market differentiation, and investors need to be cautious in their selections.

Thirdly, regarding Ethereum, attention can be focused on the price range of 3400 - 3600.

If the price fluctuates within this range, it may create corresponding trading opportunities, whether for short-term swing trades or mid-term positioning, which are worth investors' close attention and in-depth research to seize potential opportunities in a timely manner.

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The daily price of Bitcoin has directly fallen below the MA5, with MA10 support. The current price is around 98,700. Yesterday and the day before, those who shorted with Lao Xiao must have made a lot of profits!

However, don't rush to chase shorts below 99,000 for now. Let's look for a rebound around 98,800; you can consider short-term longs.

I recommend shorting during the rebound at 101,300-101,800, with a stop loss at 102,600 and a target of 98,500-96,000.

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In the early hours, the measures taken by the Federal Reserve Chairman (the term 'pimp' here is inappropriate and contains offensive language, and can be understood as a teasing nickname) and his non-cooperative attitude towards Trump (Old Trump) will inevitably not go unnoticed by Trump.

BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes made statements on social media saying that the Federal Reserve Chairman is not as cooperative with Trump as he is with Biden.

But this is not a big deal, because Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, nominated by Trump, will serve as a counterbalance to the Federal Reserve Chairman just like Yellen.

The measures taken by Trump's team that do not rely on the Federal Reserve's money printing are as follows:
First, terminate the conservatorship status of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac;

Second, prompt the depreciation of the dollar relative to gold;

Third, relax the supplementary leverage ratio (SLR) exemption rules.

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A Brief Guide to Planning Retirement with DOGE

1. Set Financial Goals
When planning retirement with DOGE, first clarify your financial goals, commonly referencing $1 million - $2 million.

2. Calculate DOGE Quantity
With the price of DOGE in the range of $0.05 - $0.1 in 2024, if you want to retire with $1 million, you would need 10 million coins at $0.1.

3. Diversify Investments
DOGE has appreciation potential but is highly volatile and risky. It is advisable to allocate part of the funds to DOGE and part to stable assets to balance risk and return.

4. Tax Planning
If the investment returns from DOGE increase, there is a high probability of having to pay taxes. Understand tax policies in advance, plan reasonably, and optimize tax burdens.

5. Monitor Expectations
DOGE's price is uncertain and highly volatile. If it rises to $1 or $5, the quantity required will decrease, but it depends on market performance, so it's essential to adjust strategies dynamically.

6. Summary
Retiring with DOGE is possible, but it requires a clear strategy, risk awareness, and comprehensive planning to ensure the accumulation of retirement funds.

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In this round of the bull market, the market performance of altcoins and Bitcoin (the big pie) has shown a significant divergence, and many investors have encountered numerous challenges during the actual operation.

Currently, although many investors are focusing on various small coins, the reality is that many have not even recovered their principal and have even fallen into a state of loss.

This difficult investment situation is not only seen among ordinary investors; some major capital operators and project parties are also deeply trapped.

Even if they try their best to promote the price rise of certain small coins or value coins, they often find it difficult to achieve the expected goals, and the overall market operation is quite challenging.

From 2023 to the present, if investors can achieve a one to two times return on investment, their performance has actually surpassed that of most market participants.

In the current situation, although some early investors in small coins are still in a state of loss, in my opinion, as time gradually passes, the market pattern will change.

Those potential value coins still have the possibility of迎来 the next round of price increases, and the future market may usher in a new climax.

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Market Conditions and Prospects of Altcoins
1. Current Situation
Altcoins have low market capitalization, limited influence, weak liquidity, and a slight transaction will cause large price fluctuations. They are easily manipulated, and the price is affected by the psychological strategy of the manipulator, making the trend unpredictable.

2. Market Sentiment
The crypto market is in a bear market. The previous turmoil has caused participants to have post-traumatic stress disorder. They are sensitive to price fluctuations and news. They should be careful of market ecstasy, which will slow down the market recovery.

3. Future Trends
Although the current difficulties and low sentiment are low, there are opportunities in the long run. High-quality altcoins may rebound in the first quarter of next year. As the market improves and confidence warms up, the price may rise by attracting funds through technology, applications, communities, etc. If the market stabilizes in the future, the increase may be higher, but the risks still exist, and investors need to carefully observe the market changes.

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The essence of trading is actually a contest with human nature.

Many people originally thought that trading mainly relied on constantly monitoring the market, analyzing various technical indicators, and using different trading strategies to make decisions, thus engaging in a game with the market.

However, the actual trading situation is more about competing with oneself.

Traders need to overcome their inner emotions such as greed and fear, and also eliminate bad trading habits.

It can be seen that whether trading can be successful depends on personal factors rather than solely on market performance, as trading itself is inherently counter to human nature.

Just like athletes, an excellent trader needs to possess good physical fitness, stable emotions, a positive mindset, and strict discipline.

Of course, being able to catch the industry dividends of the current era and having a bit of luck are also indispensable factors.

From the perspective of the cyclical factors of successful trading, mindset accounts for as much as 70%, luck accounts for 20%, and trading skills only account for 10%.

Traders should accurately capture the cyclical waves of the market with a good mindset, and then use luck and trading skills to further expand profits.

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BTC Approaches 110,000 While Altcoins Remain in a Dismal State

Bitcoin (BTC) price is rapidly approaching 110,000, yet altcoins have shown no signs of following suit, which has left many investors puzzled.

In past market environments, altcoins sometimes played the role of safe-haven assets.

But now, with Bitcoin's price so high, altcoins are hard to compare.

Currently, investor sentiment is extremely cautious; facing Bitcoin at such a high price point, they have completely lost the idea of chasing the rise.

Looking back at the previous situation when Bitcoin was in the 80,000 to 90,000 range, whenever Bitcoin saw a pullback, altcoins often experienced a significant drop, usually between 30 to 50 percentage points, just like what happened last week.

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12.18 Important Information and BTC Overview
I. Major Events of the Day
1. Biden expressed support for banning members of Congress from stock speculation.
2. BlackRock launched a 3-minute BTC popular science video.
3. OpenAI opened the O1 model API, reducing costs by 60%.
4. Trump was elected president.
5. BTC-EUR trading share exceeded BTC-JPY.
6. Ohio proposed a bill to establish a BTC reserve.
7. Trump met with Crypto.com executives to discuss personnel arrangements.
8. The European Administration issued MiCA regulatory guidelines.
9. BVNK completed a 50 million Series B financing, led by Haun.
10. OpenAI employees sold shares to exchange millions of funds.
II. Bitcoin (BTC) trend analysis
The price of Bitcoin hit a new high last night and is currently in the upper middle position of the 4-hour channel. As long as the upward trend is not broken, the overall trend is still bullish.

Given that the scale of BTC ETF has exceeded that of gold, investors should not take risks rashly just because of the negative line.

In the small range, the lower support level is around 103400. You can consider entering long orders when the price is low. In the case of extreme pins, it may reach around 102000. #USUAL现货开盘预测 #币安Alpha

EIGEN Trends and Trading Highlights

Since its launch on October 1, EIGEN has increased by 18.86 times, ranking second on the popular gainers list.

After reaching a new high on Monday, it has retraced by 10%. The daily K-line KDJ and MACD indicators show a dead cross, indicating that the price may continue to decline.

The four-hour KDJ is trending downward and has not stabilized, and the MACD has had a dead cross for less than two days; a change in the trend requires news or trading volume.

Currently, Bitcoin and Ethereum are rising, while altcoins are weak, suggesting that EIGEN may drop again today.

In contract trading, the price level of 4.970 is acceptable.

Stop-loss and take-profit orders are public; investors should set their own actions.

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ETH Market Log - 2024.12.18

Tomorrow morning, the interest rate meeting is about to take place, and on the eve of the meeting, the altcoin market shows a gloomy scene, with prices continuously falling and seemingly without end.

Compared to previous highs, the prices of many altcoins have dropped significantly by over 20%.

Investors can't help but wonder when the long-awaited altcoin season will finally arrive.

The subsequent trends of altcoins like Sol and BNB are also increasingly attracting attention, as the market is filled with a blend of anxiety and anticipation while waiting.#比特币冲向11万？ #市场全线看牛？

Wednesday Cryptocurrency Trading Strategy

On Wednesday, after experiencing an overnight pullback, the market provides us with a good opportunity to go short, which allows for the smooth closure of previous short positions.

From an overall trend perspective, the subsequent market still tends to develop bullishly. We should adopt a strategy of buying on the initial pullback, gradually advancing upwards in line with the bullish trend.

In terms of key price levels, the support level is at 104500, while the resistance level is at 108500.

During the morning session, if the price pulls back close to the support level of 104500, then a short-term buy operation can be considered.

As for Ethereum, its trend remains consistent with Bitcoin.

Therefore, similarly, we can first follow the current bullish trend to buy Ethereum, gradually earning profits in line with the market rhythm.

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The Reasons Behind Bitcoin's Rise and Altcoins' Decline

Newcomers in the crypto world often wonder why altcoins drop when Bitcoin rises and what "bloodsucking" means. BTC is the "big boss" of the crypto world, and many exchanges have BTC trading pairs with other coins.

Recently, there has been a significant issuance of USDT. However, when BTC reaches new highs, the trading volume with USDT is low, showing a price increase without much volume. The buying pressure is actually in the BTC/altcoin pairs.

Generally, people use USDT to buy coins, but now market makers and institutions are making special operations, exchanging altcoins for BTC, which leads to selling pressure on altcoins, hence BTC rises while altcoins drop.

As BTC's price increases, institutions will exchange back using BTC/altcoin pairs, creating a cycle where both institutional USDT and the amount of coins increase, while also leveraging to expand profits. This is the truth behind the selling pressure on altcoins and the "bloodsucking" phenomenon.

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Bitcoin trend analysis and operation strategies

After Bitcoin experienced a surge and a fall, it showed a trend of bottoming out and rising again. The daily line finally ended with a spindle positive line with a relatively significant upper shadow line. This upper shadow line fully showed that there is a relatively strong upward trend. selling pressure.

Judging from the trend on the hourly chart, Bitcoin has shown continuous retracement, but these retracement processes are extremely rapid, and it is quickly pulled back after the retracement.

This phenomenon means that the market is adjusting in space according to previous expectations with the help of time cycle adjustments.

As far as the intraday market is concerned, Bitcoin should focus on the test of the key point of 104000 when it falls back. It is expected that the price will have a high probability of finding support at this point without breaking.

With this support, Bitcoin is expected to test 107000 again. If market sentiment rises further, it may break through the 107000 pressure level at any time and launch an impact towards higher prices.

At the operational level, the main trading idea for Bitcoin during the day should be long.

The specific operation recommendation is to enter the market and go long when Bitcoin falls back to 104800, with the target price looking towards 106800.

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12.17 Market Highlights

I. Binance (bn)
Vana Token & New Tokens
On December 17, Binance's Vana Token (AI Big Data Public Chain) showed a VC token trend, initially spiking before a significant drop in value, nearly halving. At the same time, Cat and Pengu tokens will be listed.

Cat is the second airdrop sub-token of Floki, and Binance has connected with four meme tokens on the BSC chain. Pengu is a fat penguin NFT token on the Solana chain with a market cap of 2.5 billion.

II. Ethereum (eth)
Staking & Exchange Rate
The ETH staking sector (eigen, ethfi, pendle, usual) has seen price increases, and the ETH/BTC exchange rate has strengthened on a weekly basis.

III. Platform Tokens
FTT & FTX Compensation
FTT has risen, and FTX will initiate compensation on January 3.

IV. On-Chain
ETH Ecosystem Leading
The ETH ecosystem is leading on-chain. AI's Virtual and DEX's Hype have reached new highs. Virtual (Base Chain) has a market cap of 3 billion, and Hype (EVM Chain) has a market cap of 28 billion. The listing fee auction has reached 100 WU, and the overflow of funds has caused Hfun (trading bot) to rise 30 times, with a market cap of 300 million.

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Market Comparison and Investment Strategy for Early Next Year
Compared to the end of last year and the beginning of this year, the difficulty of the market has clearly increased by the end of this year. From the end of last year to the beginning of this year, the market's main line was clear, with three significant opportunities:

- Bitcoin Ecosystem: In the first wave of opportunities, the leading ORDI skyrocketed from $2.7 to $96, with a maximum increase of up to 36 times.

- Bitcoin Layer 2: The second wave focused on Bitcoin Layer 2, where CKB was the only target, increasing tenfold in just a few months.

- Meme Market: The third wave was the Meme market, led by PEPE, which increased tenfold in just one month.

However, the situation at the end of this year is much more complex. If one had positioned themselves early in the Bitcoin ecosystem and the Telegram ecosystem, they are likely still in a loss position, and it is quite difficult to profit from it.

Currently, emerging opportunities are mostly concentrated in on-chain projects, such as NEIRO, ACT, PNUT, GOAT, etc.; among the popular Meme coins in exchanges, only DOGE and PEPE have good trends, while others like PEOPLE and BOME have shown no significant changes.

Looking ahead to the investment strategy for early next year, I believe that Meme will still be the main line, and I suggest focusing on two major directions:
- Leading Meme Coins: Pay attention to DOGE and PEPE.

- Hottest Sector AI: Keep an eye on related projects including ACT and GOAT.

These areas are expected to become major investment opportunities, especially the combination of Meme coins and the AI sector, which deserves everyone's special attention.

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【Market Observation: LINK】
LINK has experienced significant growth in the past month, successfully breaking through several key resistance levels, and reached a new high of $30.91 on Friday.

Currently, LINK's price is around $28. Given the current trading price, if there is a pullback, it may retest the $27 level.

Below that, $23.8 constitutes a support level. If the price continues to drop, the next key support level to watch is $19.5.

In terms of key price levels, the key resistance levels are $31, $33, and $35; the key support levels are $27, $23.8, and $19.5.

It is worth mentioning that when LINK experiences a pullback, it often indicates a buying opportunity, and investors should closely monitor its price movements to seize corresponding investment opportunities.

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